It’s time for a mid-June check-in to see where the fantasy market is currently valuing players within the first 10 rounds of drafts. Below, I will discuss the top two to three best and worst values at this point in the draft season.
Previously, I discussed the concept of value in terms of drafting early versus late in the fantasy draft season, looking for edges by drafting players at a positional average draft position (ADP) that is higher than what they will finish the season. This can be done by keeping an eye on ADP movement (see Calvin’s article here) and understanding the historical hit rates of targeting certain types of players and positions based on the market changes.
Today we are looking at value based on a player’s projected points per game (PPG) compared to the historical PPG of players at their position drafted in the same round. The historical PPG data by round is based on drafts going back to 2016.
The PPG values are based on Mike Clay’s player projections. ADP data is from FFPC Big Gorilla drafts courtesy of Fantasy Mojo and is based on the last three days of drafts as of 6/16/25. Big Gorilla drafts are high-stakes tight end premium (TEP) leagues with a single quarterback and point-per-reception (PPR) for all other positions.
Best Values in
2025 Fantasy Football
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay)
ADP 64, Round 6 (+3.14ppg vs Expected)
With Godwin, I simply believe this is due to the uncertainty of his return from last year’s season-ending ankle injury. News has been limited regarding Godwin’s status early in OTA’s, and there is added competition from first-round pick Emeka Egbuka (who will be discussed later) and second-year wide receiver Jalen McMillan who looks to expand upon the strong finish to last year.
Mike Evans will turn 32 before the season starts, so if he shows any signs of slowing down, it may necessitate Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers leaning on other weapons, including Godwin.
Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati)
ADP 1, Round 1 (+2.78ppg vs Expected)
For Chase, there isn’t much to say here – he is the 1.01 in pretty much any format, so the fact that he is on this list reinforces that he belongs. His projected PPG is nearly three points higher than expected based on his round one selection, and nearly half a point higher than the historical average of other wide receivers drafted at the 1.01. Just draft Chase if you can.
Jakobi Meyers (Las Vegas)
ADP 89, Round 8 (+1.88ppg vs Expected)
Meyers is perennially undervalued, and he enters the season as the team’s projected WR1 (though likely the second target earner behind Brock Bowers). Regardless, Meyers is an extremely reliable receiver who put up a WR29 finish last year and is currently being drafted as the WR41 with an improved offensive system and quarterback in Geno Smith.
BONUS - Matthew Golden (Green Bay)
ADP 107, Round 9 (+1.88ppg vs Expected)
Adding a bonus player as the Chase one isn’t super helpful. Clay’s projection puts Golden at roughly two points per game above expectation based on his 10th-round selection. I am personally skeptical of the Green Bay receiving corps – it is a group I faded last year because I projected it would be five to six guys with sub-20% target share with no one emerging as a primary target earner.
Well, I was right, and while I know the Packers sunk first-round draft capital into Golden, I need to see it first. Golden wasn’t a strong target earner in college, so I have a hard time seeing him getting the target share needed to exceed expectations in year one.
Running Back
Javonte Williams (Dallas)
ADP 106, Round 9 (+3.79ppg vs Expected)
The Dallas Cowboys situation is the epitome of an ambiguous backfield. Reports out of camp are that both Williams and Miles Sanders are receiving first-team reps. Rookie Jaydon Blue (discussed later) has many excited about what he can become for the Cowboys.
Clay projects Williams to lead this backfield, and if he does, he is a huge value at his ninth-round cost, returning nearly four PPG of value versus expectation.
James Conner (Arizona)
ADP 55, Round 5 (+3.66ppg vs Expected)
Similar to Meyers discussed above, Conner has been undervalued for the last several years since he arrived in Arizona. The perception is not surprising based on his injury history, though when he is on the field he has been very productive. He played 16 games last year, and if he can do so again he will return value at his fifth-round cost.
Joe Mixon (Houston)
ADP 53, Round 5 (+3.20ppg vs Expected)
From the same 2017 class as Conner, Mixon is currently drafted two spots ahead of Conner. They had similar seasons last year, and based on age and injury history they find themselves in a similar value pocket.
Mixon has a bit more competition than he did entering camp as the Texans recently signed Nick Chubb, and if Chubb is healthy, he may eat into Mixon’s rushing share, though Mixon could still be utilized on third downs – something Chubb has never excelled at. This may preserve Mixon's body, limiting between-the-tackles abuse in favor of more work out in space.
Tight End
Only a couple of players to talk about here, as FFPC drafters aren’t leaving much meat on the bone at tight end in the first 10 rounds. Njoku and Ferguson offer minimal value based on their ADPs, though your mileage may vary.
David Njoku (Cleveland)
ADP 79, Round 7 (+.88ppg vs Expected)
I think Njoku will be a value throughout the draft season, assuming he doesn’t rise much. His value is being depressed based on the uncertainty of the Browns’ offense and the lack of confidence in Njoku’s ability to produce consistently. I think he will be relied upon as a top-two target earner and should be productive once again.
Jake Ferguson (Dallas)
ADP 116, Round 10 (+.48ppg vs Expected)
Ferguson could be the third target earner on the Cowboys, which, as we discussed in a previous article of mine, doesn’t often lead to a top-12 tight end finish. However, he is currently being drafted as the TE12 and has contingent target upside with an injury to either of the two projected top target earners in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Note – when starting this article, there were three different players on this list. Trey McBride has moved up from early round two to late round one, and George Kittle has moved from early round three to late round two, erasing their projected value versus expectation. Lastly, Dallas Goedert fell out of the top 10 rounds, making him ineligible for this list.
Quarterback
Similar to tight end, not a ton of value to be had with quarterbacks, though there are a few to mention here.
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati)
ADP 52, Round 5 (+1.55ppg vs Expected)
Burrow’s projected PPG offers around a 1.55ppg value versus expectation. In terms of his positional ADP at QB5, I think he is very much in the conversation to finish as the overall QB1 based on the offensive environment, the likelihood of the Bengals repeating among the league’s highest passing rate over expectation teams, and having what is expected to be a poor defense.
Josh Allen (Buffalo)
ADP 33, Round 3 (+1.30ppg vs Expected)
Allen is right behind Burrow in terms of projected PPG value but is being taken two rounds earlier. Allen offers more with his legs than Burrow, whereas his passing upside isn’t quite as high. His rushing ability and role near the goal line should keep Allen among the top three fantasy quaterbacks again this year.
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore)
ADP 36, Round 3 (.98ppg vs Expected)
Right there with Allen is Jackson, drafted three spots later. Jackson will likely lead the league in rushing among quarterbacks again (though Jayden Daniels may give him a run for his money). Offering minimal PPG value at his current ADP, there really isn’t much upward mobility, as he is being drafted as QB2 already.
Note – like tight end, this list has changed since initially started. Jalen Hurts (spoiler alert, he is talked about below) WAS a good value when he was being taken in the fifth round. With Hurts falling out of this list, Jackson snuck in.
Now let’s take a look at the worst values by position.
Worst Values in
2025 Fantasy Football
Wide Receiver
Emeka Egbuka (Tampa Bay)
ADP 114, Round 10 (-1.45ppg vs Expected)
As referenced earlier, Egbuka is being drafted in round 10 as WR52 overall. This is the arbitrage play on Godwin, and at the price, I don’t mind it one bit. If Godwin isn’t ready early in the season, Egbuka could play a lot right away, taking on a decent amount of the slot work.
The Buccaneers spent a first-round pick on Egbuka, and reports indicate he is performing well in camp. Despite the negative projected PPG value, I think it is a reasonable shot to take in round 10, given the upside and depending on your team build.
Xavier Worthy (Kansas City)
ADP 43, Round 4 (-1.35ppg vs Expected)
If Rashee Rice is fully back, and many reports suggest he might be, Worthy’s usage should take a back seat to Rice. Worthy came on strong at the end of the season, much of that due to Rice and Hollywood Brown being out the majority of the season and Travis Kelce slowing down a bit at 35 years of age.
I do think Andy Reid will work to get Worthy the ball in ways that utilize his speed, though I agree with this projected PPG value “shortfall” versus expectation.
DJ Moore (Chicago)
ADP 44, Round 4 (-.9ppg vs Expected)
Moore has a modest value shortfall to expectation of less than a point and is drafted back-to-back with Worthy. While I think Moore should be the main receiving weapon in Chicago, reports earlier this offseason suggested Moore as a possible trade candidate given some of his vocal frustrations with last year's team.
However, I expect everyone to get on the same page, the talent to win out, and Caleb Williams to target Moore often. I think the ~ 14ppg projection is fair, and if you can get him late in the fourth round, that is probably the right spot. While he may not return a ton of value, you should at least break even.
Running Back
Bhayshul Tuten (Jacksonville)
ADP 96, Round 8 (-6.53ppg vs Expected)
I touched on Tuten in a previous article covering rookie running backs. The Travis Etienne hate has driven the Tuten love way further up the board than warranted, in my opinion. Clay does not project Tuten to get much work with a very minimal projection of 3.39ppg, and at an eighth-round ADP, this puts Tuten’s value (or lack thereof) as the worst of any player in the first 10 rounds.
Jordan Mason (Minnesota)
ADP 95, Round 8 (-3.17ppg vs Expected)
Mason is drafted one spot ahead of Tuten, and Clay’s projection has Mason with a projected PPG shortfall of over three points below expectation. Many are writing off Aaron Jones’s production last year and think Mason will come right in and steal goal-line work and a decent rushing share.
I think the Mason acquisition speaks more to the Vikings' lack of confidence in Ty Chandler than it does Jones’s downfall, though Mason could find a solid role offering some flex-worthy starts with contingent upside if Jones’s age gets the best of him this year.
Jaydon Blue (Dallas)
ADP 113, Round 10 (-3.06ppg vs Expected)
Back to the ambiguous Dallas backfield, fantasy drafters are fading the veterans Williams and Sanders and grabbing Blue instead. His ADP hasn’t shifted much since May, hanging out in round 10. Unless news on the Dallas backfield changes dramatically over the coming months, or Blue’s ADP drops significantly, I probably won't be drafting much of Blue at this cost.
Tight End
Tyler Warren (Indianapolis)
ADP 91, Round 8 (-1.86ppg vs Expected)
Those who read my rookie tight end article should not be surprised by this list. Warren is being drafted at TE11 overall, and with his eighth-round price tag, Clay’s projections have him coming in at nearly two points below expectation. Warren has dropped six spots in ADP since May, so maybe rookie fever is starting to wear off and he could end up returning some value by the end of draft season if this trend continues.
Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo)
ADP 101, Round 9 (-1.74ppg vs Expected)
Kincaid dealt with numerous injuries last year, hampering what many predicted as a breakout year. With slightly later draft capital than Warren, Kincaid’s projection puts him at a similar shortfall versus expectation. While Kincaid’s pass-catching upside could help him return value at his current TE13 price, his ineffectiveness as a blocker could continue to be a barrier to him earning the snap share seen by the elite at the position.
Colston Loveland (Chicago)
ADP 105, Round 10 (-1.03ppg vs Expected)
Loveland is drafted just a few spots after Kincaid with a slightly higher projection, bringing his shortfall to expectation at about one point per game. Again, refer back to my rookie tight end article for expanded thoughts on Loveland’s outlook, though I am glad to see the market responding appropriately as the rookie hype has died down.
Loveland’s ADP has dropped from 89 to 105 since May (TE12 to TE14), making his price tag much more palatable.
Quarterback
Honestly, not much to dissect here as the market is pretty dialed in on quarterbacks in the first 10 rounds.
Kyler Murray (Arizona)
ADP 118, Round 10 (-.99ppg vs Expected)
Murray is the main one to discuss, with a late 10th-round price returning a projected shortfall of about one point versus expectation. Murray has disappointed fantasy managers since early in his promising career when he displayed huge fantasy potential.
His rushing upside is still there, with talks he leans on this part of his game again this year. Murray is still one of only about 10 quarterbacks to average over 27ppg in a season. If the rushing returns closer to 2020 levels, he has the talent around him to turn this projected value shortfall into a potential profit.
As far as Mayfield and Hurts, their projected shortfalls versus expectations are minimal. The more interesting conversation is each quarterback’s situation – Mayfield with a new offensive coordinator and Hurts without much change expected coming off a Super Bowl victory. Also noteworthy is the minimal projection difference between Murray and Mayfield with a two-round difference in cost.
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay)
ADP 93, Round 8 (-.40ppg vs Expected)
Mayfield’s new OC is an internal hire, so I don’t expect much to change in terms of the offensive scheme. If anything, the Buccanneers have improved their situation with the addition of Egbuka, giving Mayfield yet another weapon.
Mayfield produced around 25ppg last year, so I expect him to be closer to (or exceed) the expectations at his ADP which would make him more of a value than Clay's current projections would indicate.
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia)
ADP 47, Round 4 (-.38ppg vs Expected)
The Eagles probably don’t feel any need to change what worked for them last year. The tush push survived one more year, though we could see some rushing touchdown regression from Hurts. Saquon Barkley was tackled 11 times inside the 1-yard line last year, leading to seven Hurts goal-line rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown.
There is also room for some positive passing touchdown regression, with Hurts only having 18 last year. However, in a four-point per passing touchdown league, you may not want this regression and may instead root for Barkley’s poor goal-line luck again. This projection versus expectation is splitting hairs, and I would expect Hurts to return value at his current QB4 price tag.
ADP Yin and Yang
As I hope you noticed, there are some relationships in these ADP value comparisons. Players from the same team, even at the same position, may appear on different ends of the value spectrum.
As drafters start trying to feel the pulse of what teams are thinking in the offseason, the flag planting commences. Whether you do your own projections or utilize other projections that you trust, it is always wise to see how your perceptions of a player’s situation and cost at ADP coincide with their projected fantasy performance.
These comparisons may help you to spot potential values or traps. You can put your convictions to the test and fade the market, or use the projected value discrepancies to re-evaluate your thought process. Either way, understanding how the market values players compared to their potential weekly value on your team can be the difference between falling into a value trap or benefiting from market inefficiencies.