As we continue the rookie conversation (we discussed rookie tight ends previously), the outlook on rookie running backs is a different story. Many who follow the NFL draft and fantasy football are excited about this rookie running back class. The combination of overall talent, mixed with the possible opportunities in multiple NFL backfields provided us with numerous potential targets in our redraft leagues.
Running backs have a slightly different method of evaluation than tight ends. As we covered previously, earning targets is essential to the success of any tight end if they wish to find themselves inside the top-12 conversation, with the occasional tight end sneaking in with extravagant touchdown numbers. Running backs thrive on opportunities – a combination of rush attempts and targets.
As we unpack whether you should invest in rookie running backs this year, we will look at the history of running back performances that have provided us with top 12, top 24, and top 36 running back seasons (RB1-RB3), how that has changed over the years, and how the 2025 rookie running backs fit into the equation.
History of RB1-RB3 Seasons
“Opportunity is king” for running backs, plain and simple. Opportunities present themselves in different ways, via carries or targets. The nature of the opportunity is important as well. Ryan Heath had a fantastic article last year describing the concept of weighted opportunities. Rather than go over it in detail, I encourage you to give it a read.
Of primary importance is that targets are worth more than carries in fantasy. According to Heath’s data, going back to 2014, targets are worth 2.55X more than carries in points per reception (PPR) leagues. That is a significant difference, and that impact has been seen over the years.
In my database going back to 2010, I looked at RB1, RB2, and RB3 seasons, focusing specifically on running back target share and resulting points per game (PPG). I split the years roughly in half, looking at 2010-2017 and then 2018-2024 to see how things have changed.
As you can see, the target share for each of the RB1-RB3 groups has gone up. The target share for RB1s and RB2s has had a relative increase of about 5%, and the target share for RB3s has a relative increase of almost 9%.
Each group has improved their PPG as well. While the relative increase for RB1s is only around 4%, RB2s and RB3s have seen a relative increase of 7.3% and 11.14% respectively.
This shows running backs are getting more involved in the passing game, elevating them into more relevant fantasy production. The same holds for RB4s, though target share production flattened or decreased from 2018 to 2024 for RB5s-RB8.
One last piece to touch on with the history of RB1-RB3 finishes, RB1s have seen a slight decrease in the percentage of their opportunities that come from rush attempts. However, several of the lower running back finish groups have seen an increase. The continued use of running back by committee (RBBC) by NFL teams and an increased focus on getting dynamic playmakers the ball beyond carries are likely contributing to this shift.
Now let’s look at the history of rookie running backs and how draft capital, position on the depth chart, and usage translated to fantasy production in their first year.
Rookie RB1-RB3 Seasons
Though my statistical database goes back to 2010, average draft position (ADP) is not readily available from one consistent source for that same timeframe. My ADP data from 2019-2024 is sourced from Fantasymojo.com using myffpc.com drafts, and the remainder of the ADP data I gathered came from fantasypros.com, fantasydata.com, or fantasyfootballcalculator.com for PPR drafts. Despite the numerous sources, the ADP data used in the analysis provides a general idea of where the market was for these players.
Fantasy Mojo sources ADP for FFPC drafts, which are 20 rounds, and players that register an ADP outside the top 20 will be shown as 20+.
First, we will look at all rookie running backs, where they were taken in the NFL draft and their subsequent fantasy finish.
All Rookie Running Backs
There were 310 rookie running backs in my database that recorded any fantasy production during their rookie season since 2010. Above, you will see where in the NFL draft they were taken and their subsequent fantasy finish grouping RB1-RB14.
Nearly 47% of rookie running backs in the sample were taken in the first four rounds. Round four is the most frequent round running backs are drafted. About 20% of rookie running backs in the sample were undrafted.
As we start focusing on RB1-RB3 finishes, I will highlight that 19 out of 310 rookies in the sample returned RB1 seasons (6.13%), 16 returned RB2 seasons (5.16%), and 29 returned RB3 seasons (9.35%). Of these 64 RB1-RB3 finishes, 51, or nearly 80%, came from the first four rounds of the NFL draft.
Let’s break down running back finishes by NFL draft round groupings, highlighting the number of RB1-RB3 seasons that came from these rounds.
Rookie Running Backs Drafted in Top Two Rounds of NFL Draft
Rookie Running Backs Drafted in Rounds Three & Four of NFL Draft
Rookie Running Backs Drafted Rounds 5-7 or UDFA
The tables above highlight the number of RB1-RB3 players drafted in each round grouping, and what percentage of total players in that grouping ended as RB1-RB3. You will notice the hit rate drops considerably as you go through each of the groupings; from nearly 53% for rounds one and two, down to under 8% when you get to rounds five through seven (and UDFA).
% Drafted by Round in Fantasy
Going beyond the total sample of 310 rookie running backs and focusing just on the RB1-RB3 seasons, 64 running backs finished top 36 at the position, just under 21% of the sample. However, those 64 running backs accounted for 26% of the 246 running backs drafted in the NFL.
58% of RB1s were drafted in the top three rounds of fantasy drafts. RB2s are more spread out, but 81.25% come between rounds three and 10. RB3s are also very spread out, with the highlight being that over 27% came from players who were not drafted.
NFL Draft Round & Depth Chart Position
Using archived depth chart data from ourlads.com, I recorded where these rookie running backs were listed on the depth chart. I used the same timing for every player, typically dated October 1st – I found that the early September depth chart often did not reflect the true one teams entered the season using.
You will notice that 71.4% of running backs drafted in the first round were the RB1 on their team’s depth chart. Interestingly, two of the 19 rookie running backs who were their team’s RB1 were drafted in the sixth round – 2012 Alfred Morris in Washington, and 2021 Elijah Mitchell in San Francisco. Otherwise, you see the largest concentration of rookie running backs start the season as the RB2 on their depth chart, making up over 40% of the RB1-RB3 seasons.
Fantasy Draft Round & Team Depth Chart Positions
Here, we mix the concept of where players were taken in fantasy drafts with their team depth chart position. Of note, there were no running backs taken in the first or second rounds who were not projected to be the starter. By round three, fantasy managers start to take chances on the RB2 (and even RB3) on their team’s depth chart:
2017 Christian McCaffrey: Panthers RB2 behind Jonathan Stewart. Drafted as RB12, finished as RB10 (+2)
2019 David Montgomery: Bears RB3 behind Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis. Drafted as RB18, finished as RB23 (-5)
2023 Jahmyr Gibbs: Lions RB2 behind Montgomery. Drafted as RB8, finished as RB10 (-2)
RB Finishes & Depth Chart Position
58% of RB1s came from rookie running backs who were the #1 on their team’s depth chart. Half of RB2s came from NFL teams' #2 RBs, and nearly 45% of RB3s came from the #2 on the depth chart.
Rookie RB1 Finishes
These are the 19 rookie running backs to finish as RB1s (10.5% of all RB1s since 210, over one per season). They averaged just under 17ppg, had an average ranking of RB7, and an average PPG ranking of RB9. As we discussed earlier, target shares for RB1s are normally over 12%, which is what we see here. Most of your outliers come in the 2010-2017 sample, though 2020 Jonathan Taylor and 2024 Bucky Irving fall considerably below the average for the group.
I previously mentioned that 10 of the 19 players on this list had first-round draft capital, and 11 were the RB1 on their team’s depth chart. They were taken throughout fantasy drafts with a minimum ADP of seventh overall up to 199th overall, averaging early sixth round. To recap and cover a few last things on rookie RB1s:
53% of rookie RB1s were taken in the first round of NFL drafts
58% of rookie RB1s start the season as the RB1 on their team’s depth chart
Nearly 37% of rookie RB1s are drafted in the first round in the NFL AND start the season as the RB1 on their team’s depth chart
Finally, 58% of all rookies who finish as RB1s were drafted by round three in fantasy
Rookie RB2 Finishes
Here are the 16 rookie running backs to finish as RB2s (just under 9% of all RB2s, about one per season). They averaged just over 13ppg, had an average ranking of RB19, and an average PPG ranking of RB22. Their average target share dipped into the single digits at 9.64%, though nine of the 16 players had a target share of over 10.25%.
Only two of these players had first-round NFL draft capital, and half were drafted in round two. Additionally, half of them started the season as the RB2 on their team’s depth chart, while four were slated as their team’s #1. In fantasy drafts, their ADP ranged from seventh overall to 209th overall, averaging late round seven. To summarize the RB2 finish details:
Only 12.5% of rookie RB2s come from the first round of NFL drafts, and 50% come from round two
Only 25% of rookie RB2s start the season as #1 on the depth chart and 50% start as #2 on the depth chart
Nearly 38% of rookie RB2s come from round two in the NFL AND start the season as #2 on the depth chart
Relatively spread out ADP, but 81.25% are drafted between rounds three and 10 in fantasy drafts
Rookie RB3 Finishes
(Full Size Image)
Lastly, these are the 29 rookie running backs to finish as RB3s (about 16% of all RB3s, about two per year). They averaged just over 10ppg and, on average, finished as RB31 overall and RB37 in PPG. Their target share dropped nearly 2% below their RB2 counterparts, though about 28% had a double-digit target share.
Two of these rookie RB3s had first-round NFL draft capital, and 10 (34.5%) were drafted in round four. About 45% of RB3s came from running backs who were the #2 on the depth chart. In fantasy, they were drafted as early as 16th overall, with 10 drafted outside the top 20 rounds or undrafted, settling in at an average of late round 11. Recap for rookie RB3s:
7% of rookie RB3s come from round one of NFL drafts (34% came from round four)
14% of rookie RB3s start the season as the #1 on the depth chart (45% start as the #2)
The largest concentration of rookie RB3s comes from round four or later and start as the #2 on their depth chart at 35%
Over 72% of rookie RB3s came from players drafted in round 10 or later in fantasy
Now let's see how we can apply this historical data to examine the exciting group of incoming rookie running backs.
2025 Rookie Running Backs
2025 Running Back Rookie Class
25 running backs were drafted in the 2025 NFL draft (the most we have seen since 2019), with five taken in the first two rounds and seven more taken in rounds three and four. While we discovered earlier that roughly 80% of RB1-RB3 seasons come from running backs drafted in the first four rounds, the depth of talent in this class has many excited, suggesting that later-round running backs may find early roles as well.
In the table above, I provided the current depth chart position as projected by ourlads.com, as well as the current ADP for PPR leagues from fantasypros.com. With it being early June, both of these are very fluid and need to be monitored throughout the pre-season as you have your fantasy drafts. As we saw earlier, both of these can play significantly into what kind of value you end up with in drafting these rookies.
Lastly, it may go without saying, but I’ll say it anyway. While we didn’t examine the previous RB1-RB3 seasons in detail, a significant factor in the success these first-year running backs experienced (or didn’t) is the team environment. Even if a running back projects to be the lead ball carrier on his offense, the quality and success of the team will play a large part in how productive he may be. We will need to keep this in mind as we examine the 2025 class.
Leading the discussion on each of these guys, I will provide a screenshot for players by round including a brief projection/narrative section. I highlighted them based on my perception of their situation and the likelihood of achieving RB1-RB3 status this year, or more specifically, their projected finish based on Mike Clay’s projections. Dark green indicates a strong chance, light green is a decent chance, yellow is questionable, orange is unlikely, and red is doubtful.
Given the historical data and the info we know about the rookie running backs thus far, let’s see if we can project how they might produce in fantasy this year and if any have a chance to return top 36 production.
Round 1 Guys
Ashton Jeanty
(Las Vegas Raiders)
NFL Draft: Round 1, Pick 6
Projected Depth Chart Position: 1
Current ADP June 1st: 10, RB4
Mike Clay Projection: RB6
There’s really nothing about Jeanty’s profile to suggest he won’t be an RB1 this year. He has the draft capital, he’s projected to lead his backfield and has an ADP inside the first round. Though there have only been four since 2010, three of the four rookie running backs to be drafted in the first round and have a first-round ADP finished as an RB1 – the only one that didn’t was Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Even if Jeanty were to fall into round two, that has the same 75% hit rate of returning an RB1 season.
He's a special player. I will hearken back to Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP) to touch on Jeanty. Recall from my rookie tight end article, I talked about Waldman’s Depth of Talent (DOT) score that he uses to grade players based on how they perform across multiple skill criteria. Below is the grading scale used for running backs (top four):
100-95 (Rare): Instant All-Pro upside; takes over games and changes teams.
90-94 (Franchise): Immediate production and leadership anchor.
85-89 (Starter): Starting immediately with large role and learning on the go.
80-84 (Rotational Starter): Executes at a starter level in a role playing to their strengths.
Jeanty is Waldman’s RB1 in this class with a DOT score of 92.5. He simply does most things really well. Where he excels is what Waldman refers to as “play stamina” – his ability to maintain speed and strength throughout a long run play, making it difficult to take him down late in the play.
People are a combination of excited and intrigued by Pete Carroll returning to the league and luring Chip Kelly over from Ohio State to be his offensive coordinator. Flashbacks of Carroll’s usage of Marshawn Lynch and Kelly’s run-heavy scheme have fantasy managers salivating over the potential of Jeanty being an RB1 right away.
His competition is a mixture of 33-year-old Raheem Mostert, second-year UDFA Sincere McCormick, and oft-hyped but rarely productive fourth-year Zamir White. None of these guys should strike fear in fantasy managers looking to draft Jeanty.
Mike Clay (the gold standard for projections) has him projected at RB6 and he is currently being taken as RB4. I think RB6 is probably his ceiling. While he will likely finish as a top-12 running back, the early-draft hype is exceeding my projected ceiling for him, and I likely will be underweight throughout my drafts on Jeanty, though I’ll likely have some shares since fantasy football is supposed to be fun and he is a fun player to watch.
Omarion Hampton
(Los Angeles Chargers)
NFL Draft: Round 1, Pick 22
Projected Depth Chart Position: 2
Current ADP June 1st: 43, RB15
Mike Clay Projection: RB16
Despite the ideal draft capital and excellent landing spot, Hampton’s year-one outlook isn’t as cut and dry. Before drafting Hampton, the Chargers brought in Najee Harris on a one-year deal. While some might be down on Harris, citing his pedestrian yards per carry average while in Pittsburgh, he has never missed a game and has rushed for at least 1,000 yards every season of his career despite lackluster offensive line play.
Harris enters the best offensive situation he’s been in, but of course, as much as Harris complicates Hampton's first-year prospects, Hampton complicates things for him as well. But we’re here to talk about Hampton, so let’s start with some history relevant to his situation.
Recall from before, that 14 of the 19 rookie running backs drafted in the first round finished top 36. 10 of those were the #1 on their depth chart, three were the #2, and one was the #4 (2018 Sony Michel).
To dial this in more specifically for Hampton, of the five rookie running backs to be drafted in the first round and start as the #2 on their teams’ depth chart, three of them returned RB1 seasons, and the other two only returned RB5 and RB6 seasons (RB49-RB72). Those two were 2012 David Wilson who played behind Andre Brown on the Giants, and 2018 Rashaad Penny who played behind Chris Carson on the Seahawks.
For the Giants, it was actually veteran Ahmad Bradshaw (#4 on the depth chart entering the season) who took over the backfield after Brown had a slow start and eventually ended his season on injured reserve in week 12. Wilson played sparingly in 16 games, earning two starts, and receiving All-Pro 2nd Team honors as a kick returner.
In Seattle, Carson dominated touches while healthy, yielding two starts to Mike Davis due to injury (Davis was the #3 back on the depth chart entering the season). Penny appeared in 14 games, earning 85 carries and nine receptions in limited snaps. The promising first-rounder was unable to fend off fourth-round veteran Davis for the backup role.
The three players who returned RB1 seasons were 2015 Todd Gurley (behind Tre Mason), the aforementioned 2017 McCaffrey (10th-year veteran Jonathan Stewart was technically the starter, but each logged 10 starts that year), and 2023 Jahmyr Gibbs (as discussed previously, worked in behind David Montgomery who started 14 games and Gibbs was the complementary change-of-pace back scoring double-digit touchdowns).
This is a lot of information before even discussing Hampton, but it’s for a reason. The historical context is an attempt to illustrate the possible range of outcomes for a player in Hampton’s situation. In my opinion, Najee Harris is better than Tre Mason, Andre Brown, Chris Carson, and an aging Jonathan Stewart. He is probably comparable to David Montgomery in terms of skillset and age-adjusted ability.
As evidenced by the examples above, sometimes rookies just don’t work out immediately. Many factors including scheme fit, being asked to do more than they were in college, understanding the playbook, and veteran deference can all contribute to how quickly or slowly rookie running backs earn opportunities.
With Hampton, don’t be shocked if we see a number of these factors come into play. If you aren’t already, I want you to sit down – not all film gurus see Hampton as the RB2 in this class. Waldman had Hampton as RB10 in his pre-draft RSP with a DOT score of 83.7, and based on landing spot he moved up to RB6 in the post-draft RSP. Waldman cited several areas of “concern” including initial acceleration, ball security, and pass protection.
None of this is to say Hampton isn’t a good running back, there are just parts of his profile (and situation) that suggest it may not be an all-systems-go year one. For additional context, the DOT scores for RB5-RB11 in Waldman’s RSP range from 84.6 to 83.6, so not a ton of difference. Harris is good enough to limit Hampton early on, and in the end, it may be of benefit to Hampton for his long-term success as he’s allowed some runway to improve upon areas needing work.
Clay has Hampton as his RB16 and the market is right in line at RB15. While the numerical odds are in his favor to be an RB1 or RB2, I am leaning into team environment and level of competition to fade him at this ADP, though I may consider him if he were to fall to a back-end RB2 in fantasy drafts. I am also aware of the potential I am wrong, and I will own that L if it happens.
Round 2 Guys
We’ll try to go a little quicker through the round two guys.
Quinshon Judkins
(Cleveland Browns)
NFL Draft: Round 2, Pick 4
Projected Depth Chart Position: 2
Current ADP June 1st: 72, RB23
Mike Clay Projection: RB24
Judkins’ profile is an interesting mix of different offensive environments in college leading to varying opinions and perceptions of his ability. Judkins started his college career at Ole Miss, leading the SEC in rush attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns his freshman year. He followed that up with a strong yet less productive sophomore season.
Judkins transferred to Ohio State for his junior season, joining TreVeyon Henderson to form the dynamic duo that helped lead Ohio State to a national championship in 2024. Judkins was asked to do different things in each of his two college stops. At Ole Miss, Lane Kiffin doesn’t heavily involve running backs in the passing game, with Judkins accumulating 37 receptions in his two years. At Ohio State, Henderson was the lead pass-catching back on the team, though he only outpaced Judkins by five receptions last year.
This context is important, as players are often looked at through the lens of what they did and not necessarily what they were asked to do. I believe this applies to Judkins. Judkins was Waldman’s RB2 in this class both pre and post-draft. Of significance is the perception of Judkins versus Henderson as a pass catcher – Waldman placed them both in the “reserve caliber” tier in his receiving category. His film study revealed different elements of their receiving profile needing improvement, with neither having a distinct advantage.
As we look at Judkins’ year-one prospects, team environment will likely play the biggest factor in his success as a rookie. I covered my thoughts on the Cleveland Browns offense in my rookie tight end article so you can look there for the details, but to summarize, I think this offense may take some time to find its groove. They returned veteran Jerome Ford (currently RB1 on the depth chart) and also added rookie Dylan Sampson.
A combination of Ford getting some early deference on receiving downs and the offense starting slowly to begin the season gives me some hesitation to put Judkins within the top 24 this year - top 36 is more realistic. Clay has him as RB24 and current ADP agrees at RB23.
Because I really like Judkins’ talent and trust Kevin Stefanski to play his best players, if I can get Judkins outside the top 24 at the position, I will probably have some shares this year, especially in best ball.
TreVeyon Henderson
(New England Patriots)
NFL Draft: Round 2, Pick 6
Projected Depth Chart Position: 2
Current ADP June 1st: 59, RB19
Mike Clay Projection: RB34
Judkins’ Ohio State running mate went two spots later in the draft to the New England Patriots. Henderson played four years at Ohio State, with his sophomore and junior years shortened by injury. He amassed 77 receptions, impressive given the wide receiver talent he was competing with for targets.
What is most impressive, and has scouts excited, is his yards per attempt numbers – he led the Big-10 Conference in his freshman and senior seasons at 6.8 and 7.1 yards/attempt, respectively, and averaged 6.4 yards/attempt during his college career.
Henderson joins Rhamondre Stevenson in New England. Stevenson enters his fifth season, serving as their primary running back the previous two seasons. Stevenson has shown the ability to be an every-down back (despite not being asked to do so in college), earning 88, 51, and 41 targets in his last three years.
What has kept him off the field has been injuries and fumbles – he missed five games in 2023 and two games last year while also fumbling seven times. He fumbled in four straight games in weeks one through four, resulting in the coaching staff starting Antonio Gibson over him in week five (though it was really a technicality as Stevenson still received the bulk of the work).
With Gibson failing to find a foothold in his time with the Commanders and the Patriots, Henderson enters as the projected #2 running back on the depth chart. He is explosive, a good enough pass catcher, and has people reminiscing back to the days when offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had James White in the backfield. Henderson is a much better athlete than White and could be a potent weapon on this ascending offense in Drake Maye’s second year.
Henderson was Waldman’s RB6 in this class pre-draft and RB5 post-draft. I think his long-term outlook is very promising. Clay has him projected as RB34 though fantasy drafters are much more bullish taking him as RB19. We will see how the market reacts over the draft season – I am not willing to pay RB19 prices right now. Anywhere around RB24 or later, then I am taking a look.
R.J. Harvey
(Denver Broncos)
NFL Draft: Round 2, Pick 28
Projected Depth Chart Position: 1
Current ADP June 1st: 99, RB31
Mike Clay Projection: RB23
This is where the real fun begins. Many were waiting to see who the Broncos were going to take after letting Javonte Williams walk following his fourth year in Denver. Sean Payton’s ascending offense with Bo Nix at the helm has many people excited about what they can do moving forward as they add more pieces to the offense.
Harvey comes from UCF after putting up back-to-back 1400+ yard rushing seasons with 16 and 22 rushing touchdowns respectively in each. He also showed an ability to catch the ball, totaling 61 receptions over his three full years (his freshman year was shortened due to COVID-19). His gaudy production in college had many people excited about his prospects in the right situation in the NFL.
Dubbed as one of the prime landing spots for any rookie running back in the draft, dynasty managers were hyped going into rookie drafts with Denver’s selection of Harvey. He quickly steamed up from being a mid to early second-round pick to settling in at seventh overall and RB5 in FFPC rookie drafts according to fantasymojo.com. His redraft ADP reflects tempered expectations for year one, which given his profile is understandable.
Waldman was not in love with Harvey, ranking him as RB35 in his pre-draft RSP, and finishing as RB7 post-draft given the huge opportunity and draft capital. His film showed that while being a dynamic runner with good cutback ability, he has room to improve in Gap run plays and ball security. What he excels at is zone a duo run concepts and Denver runs a lot of outside zone.
Here is where we revisit the concept that “opportunity is king” for running backs. Harvey enters as the presumed starter, playing in a run scheme that fits his strengths, and playing for a coach who is known for maximizing his running back talent. Harvey is 24 years old entering his rookie season, which is irrelevant to me for redraft.
His competition is 5’7” third-year scatback Jaleel McLaughlin and second-year bruiser Aurdic Estime. This backfield has drawn comparisons to Alvin Kamara’s 2017 rookie year with Payton deploying a healthy mix of Mark Ingram along with Kamara. Estime is no Ingram, so I would anticipate Harvey dominating touches and being used in high-leverage situations.
I think Harvey’s median outcome is similar to Clay’s projection of RB23, meaning at his current RB31 price I see a huge value opportunity. If I am in round nine of my fantasy drafts, I am looking to grab Harvey there, especially if I’m drafting him as my RB3.
A pick like this may prove to be a league winner by the end of the season. Even if he just returns his projected finish of RB23, that is still eight spots of positional value. Sign me up.
Round 3 (Guy)
I will spend even less time as we move forward on these guys, highlighting only the most important aspects of their projections and profiles.
Kaleb Johnson
(Pittsburgh Steelers)
NFL Draft: Round 3, Pick 19
Projected Depth Chart Position: 1
Current ADP June 1st: 75, RB24
Mike Clay Projection: RB27
As the lone running back selected in round three, Johnson is already presumed to take the starting role in Pittsburgh, leapfrogging fourth-year veteran Jaylen Warren. While things still have time to play out, many are projecting Johnson to take over the Najee Harris role, keeping Warren in the change-of-pace and third-down roles.
The biggest question mark is who will be quarterback for the Steelers this year? Aaron Rodgers continues to keep Steelers brass guessing as to what he will do, meanwhile, they are running OTA’s with the likes of Mason Rudolph and rookie Will Howard under center. IF Rodgers signs, he could help keep the offense on track and maximize the opportunities Johnson receives. If not, it could be a long season for the Steelers.
The market is pretty close to projections, with Clay having Johnson as RB27 and the market slightly higher drafting him at RB24. I think that Rodgers eventually signs with the Steelers. I also think Johnson is a better version of Harris, and Warren is best used how he has been as a complementary piece behind a lead-back. I will probably find myself with some shares of Johnson this year.
The Rest – Rounds 4-7
As I mentioned earlier, the highest concentration of rookie RB3 finishes came from the fourth round of NFL drafts (10/29, 34.5%). Regardless, I will let the quick historical notes from my screenshot above shed light on the data aspect and I will hit you with one to two additional thoughts on each one.
Bhayshul Tuten
(Jacksonville Jaguars)
Many have given up on Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby showed flashes last year after an abysmal rookie season. If Etienne stays with the team, I don’t think he will relinquish his role this year and will bounce back from a poor 2024 season. If he gets traded or injured, Tuten could step in as the explosive weapon that Jacksonville wishes Etienne still was. Clay has him at RB60, the market is taking him at RB39. I think this juxtaposition accurately reflects his wide range of outcomes.
Cam Skattebo
(New York Giants)
I love Skattebo. I love his toughness, his versatility, and his ability to create yards for himself. I think he pairs very well with Tyrone Tracy. Skattebo is making some early noise in OTA’s, so we will see what happens but I like his year-one outlook even on a Giants offense with some questions. Clay has him at RB36, and the market has his ADP around RB32. This is about where I see him finishing – not great value but has contingent upside with a Tracy injury as well.
Trevor Etienne
(Carolina Panthers)
I don’t expect much from this Etienne brother in year one. Carolina just signed Chuba Hubbard to a nice extension and added Rico Dowdle on a one-year deal. Look for Etienne to compete with Jonathon Brooks for the #2 role next year.
Woody Marks
(Houston Texans)
Lots to play out in Houston with Dameon Pierce still kicking around and Dare Ogunbowale mixing in on third downs. Marks is currently projected as the #3 on the team, but if Pierce doesn’t put it together again this season and Marks displays his pass-catching abilities and starter-caliber acceleration, he could supplant Pierce as the #2 behind the soon-to-be 30-year-old Joe Mixon.
Jarquez Hunter
(Los Angeles Rams)
Kyren Williams continues to be one of the more polarizing running backs in the fantasy community as the analytics hate him but the year-over-year fantasy production is undeniable. The Blake Corum train was strong last year until it wasn’t, and now it looks as though the Hunter train has taken over the tracks.
Williams has done everything asked of him over the past couple of seasons, and I suspect the same will happen this year. Hunter may be a year away from relevance, though if he can beat out Corum for the #2 spot, we could see occasional opportunities this year.
Dylan Sampson
(Cleveland Browns)
Sampson wasn’t much of a pass-catcher in college, so it is unlikely he will take that role away from Jerome Ford this year. Nothing is a given, though, and Sampson offers a slightly different element than Judkins or Ford. More than anything, I think Sampson is better for the Browns than he will be for fantasy managers this year. It was a great long-term move by the team, but one I don’t think I will bet on for fantasy relevance this year.
Jordan James
(San Francisco 49ers)
One of my personal favorites as an Oregon Duck fan, I think James fits well into the Kyle Shanahan scheme. Isaac Guerendo acquitted himself well when McCaffrey and Jordan Mason were out and is an extremely athletic player at 6’0” 221 lbs who runs a 4.33 40-yard dash. With Mason off to Minnesota, James will likely stay behind Guerendo on the depth chart this season, but there are numerous examples in recent history where the #3 running back finds himself thrust into meaningful snaps for the 49ers (just ask Guerendo…).
I will touch on a handful more of the remaining players as I think there are some interesting things to watch for.
Jaydon Blue
(Dallas Cowboys)
Fantasy managers have been clamoring for years for the Cowboys to draft a running back. Well, here you go. With fifth-round capital, it’s not unprecedented for day-three running backs who find themselves as #2 on the depth chart to make some noise in year one. Could Blue be the hometown hero every Cowboy fan (and fantasy manager) has been waiting for?
Ollie Gordon II
(Miami Dolphins)
I would be remiss not to talk about the former Doak Walker Award winner. In a down year on a struggling Oklahoma State team, many forgot about Gordon. Mike McDaniel might be coaching for his job, and Gordon represents a different archetype of running back than he has deployed in the past. There might be a reason they selected Gordon, so I would keep an eye on this depth chart.
Tahj Brooks
(Cincinnati Bengals)
I will admit this is a bit of Matt Waldman special. Waldman had Brooks as his RB3 in this class pre-draft. I can’t say I was surprised as I watched a decent amount of Texas Tech football over the last couple of years with former Oregon Duck Tyler Shough running the show in 2023. I was really impressed watching Brooks. He can turn negative plays into positive gains, and while not the fastest back, he has nice short-area quickness and acceleration. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him kick one of Zack Moss or dusty Samaje Perine to the curb and earn snaps behind starter Chase Brown.
Kyle Monangai
(Chicago Bears)
While I am not on the “D’Andre Swift Sucks” bandwagon, I acknowledge there is a possibility his range of outcomes includes losing favor with the coaching staff and getting relegated to limited situational opportunities. However, I am a member of the “Free Roschon Johnson” fan club, which also presents a challenge to Monangai’s year-one outlook. While Monangai isn’t among the top 10-12 backs in this class, he isn’t that far away from it and an injury to or banishment of Swift could provide early opportunities for him to establish himself as a rotational player.
Summary – Rookie Running Back Fever
History has shown that rookie running backs can be good bets for fantasy football. NFL teams investing top 1-2 round draft capital and prioritizing their position on the depth chart have produced strong hit rates for fantasy managers over the years of rookie running backs producing top 36 seasons.
This 2025 draft has a little of everything. A “sure-fire” RB1, several projected RB2s, and several more high-upside guys who can easily produce RB3 numbers given the right circumstances. And while the numbers may not be on their side, 20% of rookie running backs returning top 36 production came from players drafted from round five or later in the NFL draft.
Whether you are drafting now or later, your stance on drafting rookies can make or break your fantasy team. Keep an eye on team reports, don’t buy into all of the “coach speak”, but don’t ignore the constant “drum beats” coming from camps. With a finger on the pulse and armed with historical data, you can gain an advantage over your league mates by drafting the rookie running backs most likely to help you in fantasy football.