If you’re drafting best ball leagues throughout the offseason, or are just interested in following the fantasy market trends, this is the article series for you. I’ll be using ADP data over on Underdog Fantasy to keep track of how the 2025 Fantasy Football community is changing its opinion on players.
I’ll identify the biggest risers and fallers of the past two weeks for fantasy football. This article looks at how ADPs have changed from May 30 to June 13. I’ll identify why the change is occurring and comment on whether there is opportunity on value with the current changes.
Risers
JK Dobbins – Up 32 spots
ADP 159.7 (RB50)
JK Dobbins is the biggest riser over the past two weeks after singing a one-year deal with the Denver Broncos. There aren’t many better landing spots one could imagine for JK Dobbins. Sean Payton has run an offence with steady production at the running back position throughout his coaching career.
RJ Harvey and Dobbins will likely split time in the backfield, but we’ve seen Payton deploy multiple successful running backs for fantasy in the past. With an up and coming offense that’s seen significant improvements at running back and tight end, we could see a high enough scoring team that both backs outpace their current ADP.
Dobbins is easily worth the RB50 ADP, but he likely wont be there for long.
Aaron Rodgers – Up 26.8 spots
ADP 185.5 (QB28)
There’s an obvious trend at the top of the risers list here: new signings. With Dobbins there was worry of a subpar landing spot, with Aaron Rodgers there was worry of no landing spot. The Steelers give Rodgers another chance to ride off into the sunset on top – although that chance is likely slim.
The Steelers aren’t exactly loaded with talent at their skill position groups. DK Metcalf leads a very thin receiver depth chart, Pat Freiermuth looks to have a bounce back season, and Kaleb Johnson will look to fill the Najee Harris role alongside Jaylen Warren.
Rodgers arguably had more to work with last year in New York, and we all know how that went. It’s possible that another year removed from the Achilles injury will allow Rodgers to show more of his old self, and at QB28 I think that’s worth the bet. If Rodgers continues to move up boards though, I’ll be passing.
Nick Chubb – Up 23.9 spots
ADP 187.1 (RB57)
I have less trust in Nick Chubb following his signing with the Texans than I do with Dobbins. There’s a lot more questions about whether the Texans running game will generally be successful this year than the Broncos. While the Texans re-worked their offensive line, whether they are any better is still a question mark. Add in a new offensive coordinator and there’s not much certainty.
More importantly, Joe Mixon is no rookie. He’s experienced and effective. Despite running behind a terrible offensive line, and missing 3 games with an injury, Mixon put together his 5th 1000+ yard rushing season. I don’t see Chubb being much more than a handcuff to Mixon, and with Chubb’s age and injury history, I don’t know if I want to bet that the juice is there.
At RB57 I’ll sprinkle him into some Best Ball lineups, but I’m not interested if he rises any higher.
Dyami Brown – Up 11.3 spots
ADP 189.3 (WR78)
Dyami Brown makes his second appearance in a row on my Risers and Fallers series. He’s now risen over 20 spots in the past month. He seems to have locked himself into the WR3 role for the Jaguars with a strong performance in minicamp.
The question though, is whether there will be enough targets for the WR3 in Jacksonville for that to matter. Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr could be one of the highest targeted duos in the league despite being in their first and second NFL seasons. I recently highlighted how Thomas and Hunter’s duo is currently being misvalued in my Sophomore WR Rankings.
Still, Brown offers great injury contingency upside should one of the top two receivers go down, and his big play nature means he could offer a few spike weeks throughout the season. That likely makes him more of a Best Ball play than one for managed leagues.
Isaiah Likely – Up 4 spots
ADP 144.9 (TE17)
I was surprised to see Isaiah Likely included among the risers this week, given that the closer to the season we get, the less likely it is that Mark Andrews is moved. Then I saw his ADP.
Likely put up TE16 numbers in 16 games last season. That was in a season that Andrews played in all 17 games. The Ravens used both tight ends quite a bit last season, giving Likely a decent floor even when he is the TE2. If Mark Andrews does miss time though, or is moved for cap savings, Likely immediately skyrockets to being a top 5 option at the position.
That is simply too much upside to pass on when you’re getting him as the TE17.
Fallers
Anthony Richardson – Down 29.6 spots
ADP 202.9 (QB30)
Things are not moving in the right direction for Anthony Richardson. Richardson missed OTAs and minicamp with a shoulder injury, the same shoulder that he had surgery on in his rookie season.
The most recent reporting indicates Richardson will be back for training camp, but even if he is fully healthy, this development does give Daniel Jones more of an edge in their QB competition.
I’m jumping on Richardson as my third quarterback in best ball leagues right now. If he does win the starting job, or takes over for Jones early in the season – and let’s not kid ourselves, any Jones honeymoon will likely be very short lived – then Richardson has real QB1 upside.
Richardson’s rushing ability makes him an easy choice at this ADP. He has a real shot at starting a good portion of his team’s game this season, and he doesn’t even need to be good to put up high level fantasy numbers.
Jonnu Smith – Down 12.5 spots
ADP 110 (TE9)
Call me a hater, but I don’t think Jonnu Smith should be considered a TE1 for this season. An 8th year player putting up over 50 receptions for the first time in his career with 88 receptions sounds a lot more like a fluke than a breakout to me.
Smith is falling now likely do to his decision to hold out of camp while negotiating a new contract. I don’t see that as a reason to drop him in your rankings, but I do think he was being ranked much too high.
After a very weird season for the Dolphins, I think we’ll see things trend back to normal this year and targets will move heavily away from Smith and towards their normal key contributors. Unless Smith tumbles a lot further, I’m not interested.
Devin Neal – Down 12.5 spots
ADP 210 (RB66)
The Saints have signed Cam Akers to a one-year deal. As the backfield gets more crowded there seems to be a lack of support for Devin Neal to make any noise. He’s now down over 25 spots across the past month.
With Alvin Kamara aging and Kendre Miller unable to stay on the field, I have Neal high on my late round sleepers list this year. Cam Akers is not much of a consideration there. Neal’s path was never based on just lucking into a starting spot. Neal was a great college running back, and if he can show that translates to the NFL, he could earn the RB2 role.
If Neal does prove he deserves that role, Akers isn’t going to factor at all into his fantasy value.
Jaylin Noel – Down 10.7 spots
ADP 168.1 (WR71)
Outside of a minor injury, there’s no news that should be dragging down Jaylin Noel’s stock. Instead, I think the fantasy community has recognized that the hype around Noel had gone a little too far.
Noel likely begins the season as the WR4 for the Texans. With any rookie receiver, there’s some added upside. He could absolutely excel early and take over for Christian Kirk in the slot. With rookie Jayden Higgins likely to be in the starting lineup early in the season, the Texans probably value Kirk’s veteran presence.
I wasn’t a fan of Noel’s film coming out of college, so his ADP still isn’t low enough for me to be interested. Should he continue to fall though, he may be worth a late round dart throw in case he does show out early for the Texans.