If you’re more results than process, here’s the quick-read version of what you need to know. Based on analysis of 1,272 player seasons across the last six years of fantasy football drafts:
Key Findings
· Late drafters see better returns with a 57% hit rate when targeting players whose ADP fell 10-14 spots or 20+ spots, and despite a lower Expected Value (EV), risk-seeking late drafters see a strong 57% hit rate for players who have risen 20+ spots as well
· Running backs offer the best hit rate among all positions for late drafters at 53.2%, while tight ends are the least reliable (43.12%)
· Rookies perform below average overall (49.20% hit rate) for early drafters but above average (49.73% hit rate) for late drafters. Rookie tight ends have the best hit rate amongst all positions at 52.17%, albeit with a smaller sample size compared to their skill position counterparts
Draft Strategy Recommendations:
Early drafters: Capitalize on your research to identify players before their ADP rises, and try to avoid players with uncertainty who may fall throughout draft season
Late drafters: Target running backs who have risen substantially (65% hit rate)
Late drafters: Look for value in wide receivers who have fallen 10-14 spots (75% hit rate)
For rookies: Avoid extreme movers (±20 spots); prefer those with stable ADPs or who have risen 1-9 spots
Still lost? Need to see how the sausage was made? Read on to see how I got here.
Intro: The Early vs. Late Draft Debate
There are numerous perspectives on the optimal time to draft in fantasy football, with the debate being especially relevant for "volume" drafters who participate in multiple leagues each season. The decision to draft early, late, or throughout the season depends on factors including league format, tournament structure, and your familiarity with offseason developments and rookie landing spots.
Early drafters advocate that the greatest value comes from "planting your flag" on players before their stock rises, allowing you to acquire assets at a discount compared to their late-season draft position. Conversely, late drafters prioritize risk mitigation—they prefer waiting until depth charts solidify, rookie roles become clearer, and the risk of preseason injuries diminishes. Both approaches have merit in different contexts, but what makes this distinction important is that in tournament formats like the FFPC Big Gorilla (formerly the Fantasy Pros Championship), you'll be competing against managers who've drafted across the entire spectrum.
Those who draft early tend to be higher-volume fantasy players who participate in drafts throughout the season, diversifying their portfolio based on evolving preseason information. This allows them to hedge earlier selections and make arbitrage plays as new information emerges. Meanwhile, late drafters face different strategic questions: Which players who've risen 1-3 rounds still offer value? Which falling players represent buying opportunities rather than justified market corrections?
Fortunately, with ADP data from sites like FantasyMojo.com spanning several years, we can move beyond speculation and quantify where actual value lies across the draft season. This analysis examines the last six years of FFPC draft data to determine how player movement across the draft season affects outcomes for both early and late drafters.
Before We Get Started – What is Value?
An important distinction needs to be made as we uncover these numbers. Early and late drafters define ‘value’ differently. While some early drafters focus primarily on trying to predict who will rise up draft boards to extract early ‘value’, in reality, very few decisions are made with any true knowledge and are mostly speculation-driven. There are also two forms of value for them – “paying” less for a player now than they will have to later, and hopefully drafting a player at a positional ADP that is higher (worse) than they will finish in terms of fantasy points scored.
Meanwhile, late drafters have had an opportunity to gather as much information as possible and are making more informed decisions – this includes knowing where players started early in the draft process and where they are being taken during their drafts. The primary value they are trying to extract is drafting a player at a positional ADP that is higher than their fantasy point finish. As we discuss ‘value’ going forward, it will primarily be from the perspective of the late-season drafter.
1. Methodology: Tracking Value Through ADP Movement
Regardless of your early or late season drafting stance, we can take a look at the historical trends and the value that can be had by drafting early versus late, specifically related to how players' ADP shifted over the draft season. Early drafts in large format tournaments like the FFPC Big Gorilla typically start in May, and managers can draft until the season starts in early September.
This analysis examines the last six years of FFPC drafts to quantify the actual value gained or lost by early versus late drafters across different player movement patterns. These player movement patterns will be referred to as “ADP Change Buckets,” grouped in five pick increments ranging from “20 or more picks earlier” up through “20 or more picks later.” I only included players who played in nine or more games during the season. The result was a sample size of 1,272 player-seasons.
After creating these buckets, I compared players’ fantasy points positional ranking (FFPC scoring) to both their early and late season positional ADP – meaning if they finished as WR20 in points, I compared this ranking of WR20 to where they were drafted among all wide receivers in early and late drafts. The delta between their fantasy points ranking and these two positional ADP points represents their value. Players with a negative delta (fantasy point ranking minus Positional ADP) are “value picks” as they finished better relative to where they were being drafted, and vice versa with positive delta players.
Now let’s take a look at what the numbers tell us.
2. General Findings: Where Value Lives Across Draft Season
Looking at the entire player sample, 634 (49.84%) of all players returned value for early season drafters, while 620 (48.74%) of all players returned value for late season drafters. For early and late drafters, there were 39 and 44 players, respectively, that neither returned nor lost value based on where they were drafted. Both early and late season drafters saw similar magnitudes for players returning value of 15-16 positional spots, and those that lost value did so by 17-18 spots. The key is how this varies by the ADP Change Buckets.
To some degree, the early drafters have a point - you can extract value if you draft early. We’ll start with the extreme ends of the ADP Change Buckets. There were 207 players (16.27%) who rose 20 or more spots in ADP from early to late drafts (roughly two rounds). On average, those players finished 14 spots higher than their early positional ADP – so if a player was drafted as WR36, on average, they would have finished as WR22 in points – that is pretty good value for the early birds.
However if you were a late drafter targeting those same players, most of the value was sucked dry by the time you drafted in late August, though you still returned about one spot of positional value. With a lower ROI compared to your early drafting brethren, why would you draft risers at the higher price? Well, the good news is you still had a 57% chance of a player returning value if you drafted them late; 119 of the 207 players returned value of about 17 spots, but the other 43% were over-drafted by 21 spots. So while the probability was still in your favor, if your players weren’t part of the 57%, you lost nearly two tiers of positional value.
On the flip side, late drafters deserve flowers for their risk-averse mindset as well. For the 238 players (18.71%) that fell 20 or more ADP spots, on average, they finished seven spots worse than their early positional ADP, whereas late drafters were able to “buy the dip” and were rewarded with about three spots of positional value. So whether it was injury-related, role/depth chart related, or just negative news, early drafters took one for the team, and with this ADP Change Bucket accounting for nearly 19% of the player pool, it represents significant risk.
When late-drafters took advantage of the extreme fall in ADP, they could score a modest profit and benefit from the fact that 60% of players in this bucket returned value. For players who returned value, they did so by 21 spots on average, whereas the 40% that were over-drafted lost 24 spots of value, so very similar risk/reward profiles both ways.
Another ADP Change Bucket worth calling attention to is the players falling between 10 and 14 spots in ADP. Both early and late drafters had success here – early drafters saw a return of four positional spots, and late drafters realized a six spot value. This bucket was by far the most successful for both drafters, and it was tied for the second highest hit rate at 57%, albeit a smaller portion of the sample size at 79 players (6.21%).
For the 43% of players who were over-drafted, their loss of positional value was about eight spots lower than the sample average. So not only did you see a decent hit rate from this bucket, if your player did not hit, it was not as dramatic a loss as elsewhere in the sample.
One last ADP Change Bucket to call out is the one where there was no change at all. For players experiencing ZERO change in ADP from early drafts to late drafts (54 of them, 4.25% of all players), both early and late drafters took a value hit, losing eight spots and seven spots of positional value, respectively. The hit rate in this bucket was also very low at 28% - so following the market consensus with guys whose perception stayed about the same the entire draft season, it might have been best to go against the grain. Even with the small percentage of players who did hit in this range, the value returned was about on par with the smaller ADP Change Buckets around it, gaining 11-12 spots, and when they didn’t return value, it was about a 16-spot loss on average.
While these patterns hold across the player pool, breaking down the data by position reveals important distinctions that can further inform draft strategy.
3. Position-Specific Analysis: Which Positions Benefit Most
Are there certain positions to target within these shifts in ADP, and likewise are there ones to avoid?
In total, running backs have the best overall hit rate for late-season drafters, with over 53% of all players drafted returning value across all ADP Change Buckets. Managers who drafted late and targeted running backs drafted 20+ spots later returned value on over 69% of those players with an average positional value of nine spots overall and 23 spots for the players returning value. The other end of the spectrum was nearly as successful with an even larger sample size. 65% of running backs who rose 20+ spots returned value to late drafters with an average positional value of five spots, with 16 spots from players who returned value. So to put this in perspective:
There were 74 running backs over the six-year span that rose 20+ spots during draft season –roughly 12 each year.
Knowing this, let’s say you enter draft season intending to target three running backs who fall into this bucket. The numbers say that you have a good chance of two of those running backs returning value of 16 positional spots each.
The average positional ADP of running backs in this bucket is RB52 (mid-level RB4), and given the average positional value in this bucket, they may end up as high-end RB3s.
Historically, RB4s average about 8.26ppg, whereas RB3s average 10.32ppg. That could be the difference between guys being reliable flex starters or bye-week guys who can help win you your week versus guys who ride the bench most of the time.
Looking at the other positions, tight end is by far the worst at returning value to late-season drafters, with a hit rate of 43%. The 83% hit rate in the “10-14 Spots Earlier” bucket looks great, but it represents only 6 total players, 2.75% of the tight end sample. Wide receiver is better, but still has a hit rate of under 47%. However, they are the position that drives the most value in the “10-14 Spots Later” bucket with a 75% hit rate across 24 players; late-season drafters realized value of 17 positional spots from this bucket (compared to 12 spots for early-drafters) and the players who returned value in this bucket did so by 28 spots.
Quarterback was by far the smallest position sample of the entire group, with only 153 total players (12%), which makes sense in a single-quarterback league. Nevertheless, the data suggests that both early and late season drafters benefit from drafting quarterbacks who rose in ADP by 20+ spots, as well as each of the last three “later” buckets which have a combined value hit rate of over 67% and almost nine spots of positional value for players who returned value.
The dynamics of rising and falling ADPs take on additional complexity when examining rookies specifically, as these players have no NFL performance history to anchor their evaluations, so nearly all ADP movement for them is driven by pure speculation.
4. Rookie Analysis: Special Considerations for First-Year Players
Does any of this change when evaluating rookies? An unsubstantiated instinct I have is managers who like to draft early tend to be dynasty managers as well. To be a good dynasty manager, you have to have decent knowledge of the incoming rookie class and have often established a stance on these players early, as most rookie drafts happen in May.
Of the 1,272 player sample, 187 were rookies (14.70%). Overall, rookies performed slightly below average for early drafters and above average for late drafters. The hit rate for late-season drafters is 49.73% (compared to 48.74% for all players). While it is a small sample within the total pool, there are still some interesting findings when looking at the chart.
For rookies with no change in ADP and those who were drafted up to nine spots earlier towards the end of draft season, the combined hit rate is nearly 61% (14 out of 23 players), and the average value is about six positional spots – not bad. There are also strong hit rates in the “5-9 Spots Later” bucket and the “15-19 Spots Later” bucket, both with only eight players each, but a hit rate of 75% and 57%, respectively. However, what truly stands out from the data are the big risers.
So about those early-drafters I mentioned previously, who are tapped into the rookie class and have strong stances on rookies… The truth is rookies that move up in drafts throughout the season have modest returns for early drafters, but horrible returns for late-season drafters who have now “bought the hype” and are drafting at inflated prices. For rookies who moved up 20+ spots, early-drafters did see an average value of three spots, but late-drafters paid the price with a 10-spot average loss in positional value.
This is also the second largest bucket with 33 players (18%). The next tier of players that went 15-19 spots earlier, both drafters regretted their rookie picks – early-drafters lost 18 spots of value, and late-drafters fared even worse with a 22-spot loss. Lastly, if you direct your attention to the far right of the chart, it’s a similar story, and this time, the early-season drafters are left holding the bag.
For rookies that fell in drafts by 20+ spots, early-drafters lost 15 spots of positional value, suggesting the early-season rookie hype before training camp and depth charts being set did not materialize on the field. Luckily, the market caught up a bit by the end of draft season, so late-season drafters who still took a chance on these falling assets only lost 2 spots of positional value.
To sum up the story on rookies – avoid huge risers and huge fallers (don’t buy the hype or buy the dip). However, there is some value to be had by sticking with modest ADP movements, targeting rookies who haven’t moved or have risen slightly.
One last note on rookies – don’t sleep on rookie tight ends. Only 23 tight ends were in the rookie sample, but over 52% of them returned value. Not only that, across all of the buckets, you had 100% hit rates in five of them. If you consider yourself a rookie tight end afficiando, there is value to be had.
We have discussed hit rates, magnitude shifts in value, and sample size within the different ADP Change Buckets, but there is another way we can incorporate all of these factors and look at the best areas to target in drafts.
5. Capturing The Risk/Reward Profile of ADP Movement Patterns
While hit rates and average values are useful metrics, they don't fully capture the risk/reward profile of different ADP movement patterns. To better quantify which buckets truly offer the best value, we can use a metric that weighs the probability of success, the magnitude of gains or losses, and the sample size of the ADP Change Bucket, resulting in what can be called a Confidence-Adjusted Expected Value (EV).
Above you will see a visual similar to others shared earlier, with the key difference being that the % Value (hit rate) line has been replaced with an Expected Value (EV) line. Taking the “10-14 Spots Later” bucket as an example: These players offer a 57% chance of returning an average of 18 positional spots of value, balanced against a 43% chance of losing 10 spots. When we calculate the weighted EV, this bucket offers an average expected gain of 5 positional spots, making it one of the most attractive targets for late-season drafters.
Examining only rookies, the EV line follows predictably based on what we discussed earlier. The “5-9 Spots Later” bucket is indeed the sweet spot for late-drafters in terms of the magnitude of return, the average hit rate, and sample size. Even with the smaller sample size, the EV is still larger than any other bucket.
EV is just one more way of managing your risk/reward profile throughout the decision-making process. Now let’s take a look at a few specific examples of how this ADP Change Bucket targeting strategy has worked out.
6. Case Studies: How ADP Movement Played Out in Real Drafts
To further illustrate how ADP shifts affect draft value for early vs. late drafters, here are three real-world examples that reflect distinct outcomes.
Early & Late Drafters Both Win
2022 Isiah Pacheco
(Chiefs, Rookie Running Back)
Early ADP 268 RB90 → Late ADP 126 RB47 (142-spot rise)
Fpts Positional Rank = RB37
Value: 53 spots value for early drafters, 10 spots value for late drafters
Early drafters who took a chance on Pacheco before his preseason buzz were rewarded massively, but late drafters still squeezed out a solid flex-level return.
Early Win, Late Loss
2022 Nico Collins
(Texans, Year 2 Wide Receiver)
Early ADP 274 WR98 → Late ADP 139 WR59 (135-spot rise)
Fpts Positional Rank = WR76
Value: 22 spots value for early drafters, 17 spots lost value for late drafters
Early drafters capitalized on Collins’ second-year potential before training camp, but late drafters paid a premium that didn't pan out after his season was cut short by injury.
Late Drafter “Buying the Dip”
2022 D.K. Metcalf
(Seahawks, Veteran Wide Receiver)
Early ADP 40 WR16 → Late ADP 54 WR27 (14-spot fall)
Fpts Positional Rank = WR15
Value: 1 spot value for early drafters, 12 spot value for late drafters
Metcalf’s contract uncertainty in July caused his ADP to drop into the mid-5th round. Late drafters who “bought the dip” were rewarded, as his performance outpaced market expectations.
7. Practical Applications for Your Draft Strategy
The analysis reveals several key patterns that can inform more strategic approaches to fantasy drafting, regardless of your preferred timing.
Early Drafters:
The data validates some of their core assumptions—there is indeed value in identifying players before their ADP rises. Players who eventually rose 20+ spots in ADP finished an average of 14 spots higher than their early positional ADP, representing significant value for those who drafted them early.
However, this approach carries substantial risk, particularly with the 20% of players who dropped significantly (20+ spots) in ADP, costing early drafters an average of seven positional spots of value.
This risk is even more pronounced with rookies, where early drafters lost a staggering 15 spots of positional value on those whose ADP fell by 20+ spots.
While the early drafters’ risk is justified by potential rewards, they should be particularly cautious drafting rookies with undefined roles who could drop in ADP
Late Drafters:
Even with more complete information, they still face challenges of their own, but the data suggests they can benefit by targeting:
Running backs who have risen 20+ spots (65% hit rate) or have fallen 20+ spots (69% hit rate)
Wide receivers who have fallen 10-14 spots (75% hit rate)
Rookies who have remained stable or risen slightly (0-9 spots) in ADP
Perhaps most importantly, they should exercise some caution with players who have risen dramatically (20+ spots), as they have a very risky EV profile, particularly rookies, as these often represent market over-corrections rather than value opportunities.
Looking forward, all fantasy managers will benefit from:
1. Tracking ADP movement throughout the draft season, regardless of when you're drafting
2. Develop a position-specific approach to rising and falling players based on the historical hit rates
3. Consider a balanced portfolio approach if you're drafting in multiple leagues and times of the season, targeting specific ADP Change Buckets rather than the same players across all leagues.
The 2025 rookie class has many people excited, especially for the running backs, so these will be guys to watch, given what the data has shown. Rookie wide receivers have an above-average hit rate, and well above the entire wide receiver pool, so there is value to be had if you avoid the extreme risers and fallers and focus more on the middle ADP Change Buckets. As for rookie quarterbacks, my advice is to look elsewhere this year.
Conclusion: Balancing Risk and Reward
While no strategy guarantees success in the inherently unpredictable world of fantasy football, understanding these historical patterns of ADP movement and subsequent player performance gives you a significant edge over managers drafting solely on current consensus or personal intuition. In a “process over results” driven approach to fantasy football, the goal isn’t necessarily precision, as it is nearly impossible to get everything right.
The goal should always be moving in the right direction, with information and data guiding you. For fantasy managers, the question isn't simply whether to draft early or late—it's how to optimize your approach within your chosen draft timing by leveraging these proven patterns of value.