With week one in the books, we certainly learned everything we need to know about how the season is going to go, right? Well, some things became clearer, while some things remained murky and ambiguous.
The Thursday and Friday games were a mixed bag with some fantasy studs stepping up, some underperforming, and some unexpected performances. The main slate on Sunday had many games hitting the under, resulting in quite a few players drafted as surefire starters leaving you wanting more.
Then we were treated to an amazing game Sunday night, with the Bills emerging victorious on a last-second field goal. Nearly everyone you wanted to produce in that game did so, except Mark Andrews. However, if you needed a desperation touchdown, if you read last week’s start/sit article and took a chance on DeAndre Hopkins, congratulations!
Week one concluded with another entertaining, though slow-starting game between the Vikings and the Bears. Two young quarterbacks had up-and-down moments, ending with J.J. McCarthy having the final say, leading a heroic fourth-quarter comeback.
How we project future performances based on last week’s outcomes is more art than science. Most of us expect the fantasy studs that underperformed to bounce back, but can we rely on others who exceeded expectations to repeat moving forward?
As a reminder for our start/sit series, we reference FantasyPros' weekly consensus rankings for point per reception (PPR) scoring. I will go game by game, identifying the must-start players, those worthy of a matchup consideration or flex plays and deeper leagues, and the fantasy fades/concerns whose matchup or recent performance should give fantasy managers pause.
Recommendations will be based on 12-team leagues, so often they will be reflected within the top-12 quarterback and tight end rankings and the top-24 running back and wide receiver rankings on FantasyPros. Obviously, your roster construction may dictate that players who are listed as matchup considerations or flex plays are actually your best available RB1/2 or WR1/2.
Let’s dive into those week two matchups!
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Sunday, September 14th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread BUF -6.5
Over/Under 46.5
Must Starts: Josh Allen, James Cook, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson
My gut was correct on Hall, and I was happy to see his usage in week one. I think this should be the norm, though I could see this Jets offense go through some ups and downs throughout the season, which could bring Hall back to earth.
I was wrong on Wilson (actually, I was more wrong about how his situation would negatively impact him), so until he proves otherwise, his target share and talent dictate that he is a must-start.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Justin Fields, Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Bills DST
Fields is the guy I don’t know if I fully trust to be consistent, keeping him out of the must-start list for me despite being QB8 on FantasyPros. If you start him, brace yourself for a letdown game following last week’s performance.
The Bills' pass-catchers had some highs and lows on Sunday night, though Coleman could be on the verge of a breakout. I also like the Bills DST here as they are 6.5 point favorites and the Jets have an implied team total of 20 points.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Braelon Allen, Josh Palmer
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Sunday, September 14th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread DET -6.5
Over/Under 46.5
Must Starts: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jake Bates
It was a rough start for the Lions' offense, though I am still not convinced that it was all due to Ben Johnson’s absence. They were playing a tough Packers defense on the road, so I’ll look for a bounce-back game for the Lions offensive trio listed above, who accounted for nearly 66% of all of Goff’s targets on Sunday.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Jameson Williams, D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze, Lions DST
Goff at home in a dome in a rivalry game spells rebound to me. Montgomery could see more garbage time and goal-line opportunities than he did against the Packers, and Williams could get loose against this banged-up Bears secondary.
Swift had every running back carry in the Bears’ offense on Monday, but was quite inefficient, averaging only 3.1 yards per carry. He was targeted five times, catching three for 12 yards. The usage is promising, but I would like to see more before I make him a must-start option. Likewise, Odunze saved his day with a late touchdown, making him a boom/bust flex play.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Colston Loveland
I will be avoiding the rest of this Bears offense until they work out the kinks. Williams showed some things with his legs last night, but he will need to show more as an actual quarterback for me. They tried to get Moore involved, but it didn’t amount to much. Loveland could only earn two targets, so his breakout will have to wait at least another week.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, September 14th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread BAL -11.5
Over/Under 44.5
Must Starts: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, David Njoku, Ravens DST, Tyler Loop
I think Njoku still deserves must-start consideration given the tight end landscape, though I could understand sitting him if you feel you have better matchups. The Ravens DST is a smash play this week, with the Browns having the lowest implied total of the week at 16.5.
What Flowers showed on Sunday night was spectacular, though I still believe the volume will be inconsistent week to week. However, it is tough to sit him after a performance like that, so if I have him, I am starting him.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jerry Jeudy, Mark Andrews, Cedric Tillman, Dylan Sampson, Harold Fannin Jr.
The pass catches in this game, outside of Flowers and Njoku, are flexes only for me. Tillman and Jeudy saw the same amount of work, except Tillman converted one of those receptions for a touchdown. Fannin Jr. was impressive in his debut, and his usage and target share support my prediction that he would end up supplanting the third wide receiver in the offense.
If you sat Andrews for Fannin Jr., despite their respective TE8 and TE18 ranks on FantasyPros, I wouldn’t fault you.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, September 14th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread CIN -3.5
Over/Under 48.5
Must Starts: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Brian Thomas Jr., Evan McPherson, Cam Little
Everyone on this list, except Brown, had underwhelming performances in week one. I don’t expect that to continue, as the talent and opportunity are much too high for it to continue. Expect redemption games coming from these studs.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Travis Etienne Jr., Travis Hunter, Brenton Strange, Trevor Lawrence
With Tank Bigsby shipped off to Philadelphia, Etienne jumps into flex territory based on where he was being drafted, though his FantasyPros rank of RB17 could make him a must-start for some fantasy managers.
He proved a lot of people wrong in week one, so don’t be the type of manager who lets their preseason biases impact their fantasy success. I want to see one more week of similar usage before I put him in the must-start tier, though.
Hunter saw decent usage, earning just one more target than Thomas Jr., but only turned those into 33 yards. Strange converted all four of his targets into receptions, leading the team with 59 yards receiving. Both are promising options moving forward, and I expect both to see more production.
Let’s hope Lawrence can get back on track this week and elevate Thomas Jr. and the rest of this offense to where our preseason expectations were.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Both DSTs, Everyone Else
Los Angeles Rams @ Tennessee Titans
Sunday, September 14th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread LAR -5.5
Over/Under 41.5
Must Starts: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, Rams DST
With this being the third-lowest over/under of the week, the over/under on the number of times Nacua visits the blue tent might rival it. Seriously, though, Nacua is a force when he is on the field, earning a 39% target share in week one.
Adams earned a nice target share of 28.57%, converting only four of his eight targets into 51 yards. The lack of preseason reps with Matthew Stafford is likely to blame for the low conversion rate, so Adams has some time to establish rapport and turn some of those targets into more yards and touchdowns.
The Titans (and Cam Ward) looked bad on Sunday, and the Rams' defense looked pretty good against the Texans. The Titans’ 18-point implied total is one of the lowest on the week, making the Rams DST an elite starting option.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard
Ridley and Pollard are victims of an offense that has yet to find an identity with its rookie quarterback. Things could turn around, but until they do, these two remain flex-worthy plays only.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Sunday, September 14th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread MIA -1.5
Over/Under 42.5
Must Starts: De’Von Achane
Achane is the only player in this game who is a must-start.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Patriots DST
Maye did not look good yesterday. He had some decent throws, but also a lot of bad decisions. The offense overall did not look great. His QB10 ranking going into week two surprises me.
His trio of weapons listed above could fill your flex spots. They go on the road in a rivalry game against a poor Dolphins team, so let’s see if they can turn things around in week two.
I am surprised that coach Mike McDaniel was not “tarmac’d” after week one, but don’t be surprised if it happens soon. Hill and Waddle are talented victims in this poorly run system, and that talent makes them worthy of flex consideration. If I were the Chiefs, I would be making a call to see how much it would cost to get Hill on a plane back to Kansas City…
Despite Miami being 1.5-point favorites, I can see the Patriots’ DST giving this struggling Dolphins team some trouble.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Kayshon Boutee
I will take a moment to acknowledge Boutee here, who has shown some chemistry with Maye dating back to last season. If this continues, he will find himself in flex territory in future weeks. I need to see a bit more from him (and this offense) before I do so.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, September 14th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread DAL -5.5
Over/Under 44.5
Must Starts: CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, Brandon Aubrey
Nabers turned 12 targets into only five receptions for 71 yards. The Russ experiment might be over soon, as head coach Brian Daboll was noncommittal after Sunday’s game about keeping Russell Wilson as the starter, only to announce Monday morning that he would remain the starting quarterback.
One more game like that and there will be A LOT of clamoring from the Giants' faithful to give rookie Jaxson Dart the job.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, George Pickens, Wan’Dale Robinson, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Cowboys DST
Prescott and Pickens will look to rebound at home after lackluster performances in week one. I mentioned back in June that Williams was one of the best running back values inside the first 10 rounds, and here we are. He isn’t a must-start yet, but it would be hard not to flex him if you drafted him.
Robinson is merely a volume play in PPR leagues, earning eight targets and turning that into six receptions for 55 yards. Tracy Jr. dominated the backfield, earning 10 of the team's 15 running back carries. I don’t believe he relinquishes control to Cam Skattebo just yet.
The Giants have the sixth-lowest implied team total on the week at 19.5, and Dallas’s defense didn’t look as horrible as I was expecting, so they could be a low-end DST play this week.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints
Sunday, September 14th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread SF -3.5
Over/Under 40.5
Must Starts: Christian McCaffrey, Ricky Pearsall, Alvin Kamara, 49ers DST
What calf injury? CMC got ELITE usage this week, which likely continues with George Kittle sidelined with a hamstring injury and Jauan Jennings possibly out with a shoulder injury.
Pearsall moves into must-start territory for me, both due to his strong week one performance and the absence of Kittle and possibly Jennings. His FantasyPros ranking of WR31 (at the time of this article) is criminally low and one that I expect to move up as we get later in the week. Even with Brock Purdy likely to miss a couple of weeks, Kyle Shanahan gets the moment he has been waiting for with Mac Jones, who could easily keep this offense afloat.
Kamara didn’t dazzle in week one, but he had 11 of the 18 running back carries and one touchdown. What was missing was his receiving work; he only had two targets on the day. I would expect that to change going forward, as this is where he has done most of his damage over the years.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Juwan Johnson, Chris Olave
Earlier in the preseason, I joked that the shower-narrative could be strong between Johnson and then-presumed starting quarterback Tyler Shough from their time at Oregon. With Spencer Rattler winning the job, Johnson still proved to be a trusted option, earning 11 targets in week one and converting that into eight receptions for 76 yards.
He only trailed Olave in targets, who had 13. Let’s hope Olave can continue with this type of target share and become a bit more productive with it.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, September 14th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread PIT -3.5
Over/Under 39.5
Must Starts: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Boswell
Smith-Njigba had a 59% target share in week one. Any questions? Boswell has become one of the most reliable kickers and is benefiting from a relatively conservative Steelers offense.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jaylen Warren, D.K. Metcalf, Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, Steelers DST, Seahawks DST
Lots of flex-worthy options here. The Walker III/Charbonnet split is concerning, so we will see if this was a one-week thing to allow Walker III to get his feet under him after a limited preseason, or if it’s foreshadowing of future usage.
You can consider both DSTs with this game having the lowest over/under of the week. The Steelers have a good defense despite the Jets putting up 32 points on them last week, and the Seahawks had the highest pressure rate in week one, which could give Aaron Rodgers some trouble.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 14th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread ARI -6.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Chuba Hubbard, Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., James Conner, Trey McBride, Cardinals DST
Chuba had a solid game, adding a long touchdown via a reception, countering a pedestrian performance on the ground. Kyler delivered an okay performance despite playing with an illness, and did so while only providing 38 yards on the ground, something I expect to increase in more competitive games.
McBride had a strong 31% target share, and Harrison delivered on his modest 20.68% target share, catching five of six targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. I expect Harrison to build upon this against a subpar Panthers passing defense.
The backfield split between Conner and Trey Benson seems to be real, with Conner handling 12 carries to Benson’s eight (60/40), though Benson was much more efficient with his opportunities. Conner did catch all four of his targets, converting one into a touchdown, which saved his fantasy week.
I expect better days out of Conner going forward, even if Benson continues to take 40% of the backfield touches, and this is a great matchup for the Cardinals' run game.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Tetairoa McMillan
Despite his WR21 rank on FantasyPros, McMillan stays in flex territory for me. He could easily deliver as the Panthers should be throwing from behind, but Bryce Young took a step back last week from his late-season performances last year, so I would like to see some improvement first.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 14th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread DEN -1.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Courtland Sutton, Tyler Warren, Jonathan Taylor, Broncos DST, Wil Lutz
Sutton had an alpha touchdown catch and a decent 24% target share in a game that I am sure Bo Nix would rather forget. Denver’s offense failed to click, though Sutton was one of the few bright spots. Sutton is my only Bronco must-start on offense.
It’s early, but I may have also been wrong about Warren. He dominated early, earning three targets on the opening drive and finishing with a team-high nine targets. Daniel Jones may lean on him in the intermediate part of the field this week given the strength of Denver’s outside corners.
Taylor took every snap at running back during the first half. ALL OF THEM. Taylor will continue to get elite usage, especially in closer games, which this one projects to be. He also earned three targets, just over a 10% target share. This is a good sign, given his sub-10% target share since Shane Steichen came to town.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Bo Nix, J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey, Evan Engram (Calf), Josh Downs
Nix had a poor game, so we’ll see if Sean Payton can get him back on track heading into Indianapolis. Both Dobbins and Harvey are good flex plays, with Dobbins earning most of the carries and converting a touchdown, and Harvey being efficient on the six he had.
Engram was disappointing, only earning four targets, and now he is dealing with a calf injury (bruise, not strain). He logged a full practice on Thursday, so he is probably still a low-end TE1 option, but I wouldn’t blame anyone for looking elsewhere this week.
Though Downs had a disappointing week one, he may have an opportunity to bounce back with Michael Pittman Jr. being locked down by Patrick Surtain II on the outside. He and Warren could dominate targets this week.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Daniel Jones, Michael Pittman Jr.
Look, Danny Dimes balled out. Depending on your scoring format, he is somewhere in the top three fantasy quarterbacks for the week. Promising, if you are a Colts fan or own his weapons, you are happy. I am benching him against this Broncos pass rush and strong secondary, though.
Pittman Jr. is also on my bench this week, facing arguably the best corner in the game in Surtain II. He is WR42 on the week, which feels about right.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 14th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread PHI -1.5
Over/Under 46.5
Must Starts: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Travis Kelce, Jake Elliot, Harrison Butker
This will be a fun game. Hurts and Mahomes will probably go shot-for-shot trying to keep their team on top. Barkley looked good and showed no signs of slowing down after last year's workload. The Chiefs' run defense could force him to make more plays through the pass game than he did last week to remain a strong fantasy option.
Brown deserves the must-start designation despite living on a milk carton last week. If he has another week of sub-10% target share and decoy-like usage, I will start to be concerned.
I understand the hesitancy to start Kelce; he didn’t get the volume we would have liked, but he still had a touchdown. He is TE4 this week on FantasyPros. I think he will get back to his mid-to-high teen target share volume moving forward.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Hollywood Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
Speaking of target share, the other Brown (Hollywood) had a crazy 42% target share, and with Xavier Worthy likely missing some time, he should continue to see strong usage.
Goedert was better than Smith last week, but neither was amazing. The Eagles may be forced to pass more this week, making both of them better options than they were last week. Goedert is ranked as a low-end TE1 this week.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Isiah Pacheco, Both DSTs
Pacheco only saw a 50% running back rush share and yielded goal-line snaps to Kareem Hunt. Until I see more usage for Pacheco, despite his RB29 ranking this week, I cannot put him in my lineups, given the uncertainty with how this offense is going to run minus Worthy and Rice.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 14th, 8:20 PM EST
Spread MIN -3.5
Over/Under 44.5
Must Starts: Bijan Robinson, Drake London (Shoulder), Justin Jefferson, Vikings DST
Robinson split backfield carries with Tyler Allgeier but did all of his damage through the air with six catches on seven targets for 100 yards and a touchdown. His usage as a pass catcher is what we all hoped for coming out of Texas, though we expected it to come with a larger share of carries. He is a must-start, regardless.
London had a crazy 15 targets on 42 pass attempts from Michael Penix Jr., just under 36% target share. He left the game after landing awkwardly on his shoulder on an overturned touchdown catch, and he did not return. He is said to be day-to-day, so keep an eye on his availability heading into Sunday night.
I expect the Vikings DST to give Penix Jr. a lot of different looks, putting him in uncomfortable situations. Minnesota is a top-half DST1 this week.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Kyle Pitts, Michael Penix Jr., Aaron Jones Sr., Jordan Mason, Darnell Mooney (Shoulder)
I said last week that this may be Pitts’s year, and he had a strong showing. Another game like that, and he probably slides into weekly top-12 tight end territory. Penix Jr. also looked good, throwing for nearly 300 yards and a touchdown, and adding 21 yards and another touchdown on the ground.
The passing volume is promising, so Penix may soon find himself among the top streamers at the position moving forward.
You could consider Mooney if you are desperate, assuming he returns this week from his shoulder injury. Penix Jr. would benefit as well if Mooney comes back and is effective.
Jones Sr. and Mason will likely find themselves as flex considerations often this season, as they both executed their projected roles well, with Jones Sr. as the pass catcher and Mason as the primary ball carrier. Jones Sr.’s receiving upside will keep him flex worthy, while Mason has a decent rushing floor with touchdown upside as well.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans
Monday, September 15th, 7:00 PM EST
Spread HOU -2.5
Over/Under 42.5
Must Starts: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, Nico Collins, Ka’imi Fairbairn, Chase McLaughlin
Mayfield’s week one was a mixed bag. He was barely over 50% passing and only had 167 yards through the air. However, he led the team in rushing and threw three touchdowns with no interceptions. I still think he is a top-12 option this week.
Irving didn’t rack up a ton of yards, but saved his day with a receiving touchdown. He also had 14 rush attempts to Rachaad White’s two. Better days are ahead, especially if this workshare continues.
You hear the drumbeat. It gets louder. You see glimpses in the preseason. The drumbeat becomes deafening. Then week one rolls around, and it all materializes. Egbuka is undeniable now. Though only four catches on six targets, two of those went for touchdowns.
And it isn’t just the target number itself, it’s the situations he was targeted in. High leverage, pivotal moments in the game, including the game-winning touchdown on a post route, show Mayfield has trust in him, and he will likely be in the Godwin role until Godwin returns. That is very valuable for fantasy.
Joining Ja’Marr Chase and A.J. Brown on the milk carton was Collins. Like the others, he gets a mulligan for week one.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Mike Evans, C.J. Stroud, Nick Chubb
Evans had a solid game, certainly more flex-worthy than top-10 as he was ranked entering the week. As defenses have to start paying attention to Egbuka, it should help Evans out, though I will put him in flex territory this week.
Stroud looks to get off the struggle bus against a defense that just allowed Penix Jr. to throw for nearly 300 yards.
Chubb doesn’t look like the Chubb of old, but he got the bulk of the work in the backfield and looked better than anyone else they deployed. Opportunity is king, and it’s his job until further notice.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Both DSTs, Jayden Higgins, Rachaad White
Higgins led the team in receiving yards, but that was only 32 yards (gross). Though you may be tempted to take a chance on him, I would sit this one out and let him get a bit more established.
The Buccaneers seem to have moved away from White, not even retaining his pass-catching role from last season. White can probably be dropped in shallow leagues and considered a handcuff option at best.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, September 15th, 10:00 PM EST
Spread LAC -3.5
Over/Under 45.5
Must Starts: Justin Herbert, Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers (Knee), Ladd McConkey, Cameron Dicker
Personally, I thank Madison Beer, but whatever it is, Herbert was dealing in week one. Look for that to continue this week. Along with that, McConkey should continue to be a solid target option for him, even with the emergence of Quentin Johnston and the rejuvenated vet Keenan Allen.
Keep an eye on practice reports this week, as Bowers sustained a knee injury in week one. He downplayed it after the game, indicating he would be fine, but it is worth monitoring.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jakobi Meyers, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Omarion Hampton, Geno Smith, Michael Mayer (Bowers dependent)
Meyers was every bit of a number one wide receiver, earning 10 targets and turning those into eight catches for 97 yards. I still think that where you drafted him, he is probably one of the best flex options on your roster, though the Bowers injury may catapult him into must-start territory.
Another option that could benefit if Bowers is out is Mayer, who actually out-snapped Bowers (even in the first half before Bowers left). Mayer could step right in and earn a nice target share, making him a flex option or tight end streamer. Bowers owners may want to grab Mayer if they have the bench spot as an emergency plug-and-play option.
Lots of other flex options here with Allen, Johnston, and Hampton. Though Allen led the Chargers in targets last week, the single-week production combined with his draft capital makes him a strong flex option rather than a must-start. Geno Smith may even be a stream-worthy quarterback with the over/under moving up to 46.5 recently, and Las Vegas being 3.5-point underdogs.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Najee Harris, Tre Tucker
While I think this is the week that Harris proves why Hampton was over-drafted, it doesn’t make him start-worthy; it just further reduces Hampton’s value as of now. I will not be fooled by the RB19 ranking of Hampton this week.
And don’t get sucked into the Tucker hype. The deep touchdown was nice, but he only earned three targets, and that is hard to make a fantasy living with.