While not everyone has started their season-long drafts, there are a number of leagues and tournament formats where drafts have been underway since earlier this year. May tends to be a big month where a larger volume of drafts start to take place, and it is a good starting point for us to evaluate draft trends.

Using Average Draft Position (ADP) data from FantasyMojo for FFPC Big Gorilla drafts, we will take a look at the top three ADP movers rising up draft boards since May through the end of July for each position. And because the largest movers aren’t always the most relevant based on their later-round draft capital, I will add a bonus player for each position whose earlier draft capital may have larger fantasy implications.

Lastly, where applicable, I will refer back to my article from May that discussed values to be had or traps to avoid, based on these ADP movement patterns.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott

(Dallas Cowboys)

FFPC May ADP: 144 (QB13)

FFPC July ADP: 112 (QB9)

Up 32 Spots

For Dak Prescott, I think this is simply a function of the market finally correcting and mentally adjusting to him returning from his season-ending hamstring injury last year. Everything out of training camp suggests he is completely recovered from the surgery and is a full participant. He has moved from being drafted just outside of QB1 territory and is now firmly inside the QB1 tier.

They have a bolstered receiving corps, adding George Pickens via trade this off-season. Jalen Tolbert (discussed later) enters his fourth year off of a much-improved season where he was third in targets behind only CeeDee Lamb and tight end Jake Ferguson.

But of course, the most important factor? Prescott performs well in odd-numbered years and when coming off of a poor performance (or injury) the prior year. 2025 hits both marks. Prescott is ready for redemption.

J.J. McCarthy

(Minnesota Vikings)

FFPC May ADP: 185 (QB20)

FFPC July ADP: 157 (QB17)

Up 28 Spots

Still not quite in QB1 territory, J.J. McCarthy has seen a modest bump in his ADP over the past couple of months. There was a lot of hype for him entering his rookie season last year until it ended before it even began as he tore the meniscus in his right knee in the pre-season.

The scouting reports from his time as a Michigan Wolverine were mixed. Some of his passing metrics were underwhelming, though he wasn’t asked to do that much under Jim Harbaugh’s run-heavy system. However, others saw glimpses of arm talent and other intangibles that could make him successful at the next level.

Regardless, fantasy managers aren’t buying in quite yet, but they are getting closer. He has one of the best receivers in the game with Justin Jefferson, who, unfortunately, is dealing with a hamstring injury that will likely keep him out of training camp.

Jordan Addison is dealing with some uncertainty of his own, awaiting word from the league on a possible suspension following the recent conclusion of his DUI case. Luckily, tight end T.J. Hockenson enters the season healthy, having missed time early last year coming off a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee.

If McCarthy can put it together during training camp and build some chemistry with his receivers, and head coach Kevin O’Connell can work his magic on the young quarterback, he could be primed for a strong debut season. Being taken as a mid-QB2 in drafts, the opportunity cost is low, and the upside exists for him to add value to your fantasy roster.

Matthew Stafford

(Los Angeles Rams)

FFPC May ADP: 211 (QB22)

FFPC July ADP: 192 (QB21)

Up 19 Spots

Digging even deeper in the quarterback rankings, 37-year-old Matthew Stafford has moved up about a round and a half since May, though he is still being taken as a back-end QB2 in drafts. He is reportedly dealing with a back injury, making his status “week-to-week”.

It’s never great when a recurring back issue is keeping you out of training camp. He has some exciting weapons to work with in Puka Nacua and newly acquired veteran receiver Davante Adams. I don’t love that Stafford is losing time in training camp that he could be building rapport with Adams, but they are also both veterans, so if any duo can make it work, it is likely those two.

Being drafted in round 16, the cost isn’t very high, but the risk certainly is. If the back issue lingers, it could be problematic for his weekly availability. He has played through back injuries in the past, but he is also another year older. His available weapons offer nice upside at his draft cost, so unless you are really playing late-round quarterback roulette and relying on Stafford as your primary quarterback (please, don’t do that), it is a risk that may pay off.

Bonus Quarterback

Brock Purdy

(San Francisco 49ers)

FFPC May ADP: 149 (QB14)

FFPC July ADP: 133 (QB12)

Up 16 Spots

Brock Purdy comes in fourth in the upward movers list at quarterback, and of the remaining quarterbacks with rising ADPs, he probably has the most relevant fantasy implications. Back in May, he was only being taken five spots after Prescott, and now, Prescott is being taken nearly two rounds earlier.

The growing gap between these two quarterbacks presents an interesting decision for fantasy managers. Mike Clay’s projections have Purdy as QB7 and Prescott as QB14, separated by over 29 fantasy points. If you believe the projections, the choice is obvious. However, if you think Clay’s projections are too conservative for Prescott (or too aggressive for Purdy), the decision becomes more difficult.

The ADP of these two quarterbacks will be something to monitor throughout August. Though both are rising, if the gap continues to grow and nothing fundamentally changes about either’s situation throughout training camp, Purdy might end up presenting one of the best draft-day values at quarterback.

Draft Timing Implications

The findings from my article back in May showed that both early-season and late-season drafters can benefit from drafting quarterbacks who rise up draft boards. Early-season drafters who took quarterbacks that ended up being drafted 20+ spots sooner returned seven positional spots of value, while late-season drafters returned three spots.

Late-season drafters had a 52% hit rate of returning value on these players, with quarterbacks who returned value doing so by nine spots. The combination of hit rate and positional value returns resulted in this ADP movement bucket having the third-best expected value (EV). Stafford is on the outside looking in, as he has only moved up 19 spots so far, though being right on the edge, he has a chance to move into it by the end of draft season.

Unfortunately, the data is not favorable to Purdy, despite the praise heaped upon him earlier. With his current ADP shift of 16, he falls into one of the worst EV buckets for quarterbacks. No quarterback since 2019 who ended up being drafted 15-19 spots earlier in late-season drafts have returned value. The good news, it is one of the smallest sample sizes in the data, with only five quarterbacks drafted who fit this criteria, so not all hope is lost for Purdy.

Running Back

Miles Sanders

(Dallas Cowboys)

FFPC May ADP: 253 (RB86)

FFPC July ADP: 168 (RB60)

Up 85 Spots

In a very fluid situation in a very ambiguous backfield, Miles Sanders has moved up more than any other player over the past two months. He went from being undrafted in most leagues to now being taken in round 14.

If you believe in this Cowboys offense, it is very easy to get behind some of the weapons available at their current cost. Fellow veteran running back Javonte Williams has also risen a bit in ADP, though only seven spots, and is being taken as RB36 in the ninth round. Rookie running back Woody Marks has fallen 18 spots in ADP, now down to RB67 in round 16.

If one of these running backs hits and you choose the right one, you will likely be handsomely rewarded. At their current ADPs, and specifically Sanders’s ADP, it isn’t a risky bet to make. This will be a backfield to monitor throughout August.

Raheem Mostert

(Las Vegas Raiders)

FFPC May ADP: 267 (RB89)

FFPC July ADP: 205 (RB73)

Up 62 Spots

I might have missed something, but I haven’t seen much that would justify this type of ADP movement for Raheem Mostert. Granted, there is a lot of buzz about this offense with Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly running the show, but at age 33, what are we really expecting here?

He did have a huge season two years ago with the Miami Dolphins, but fell back to earth last season. He now finds himself behind ‘generational’ talent Ashton Jeanty, who is projected to be a three-down workhorse. The only positive thing I can say about Mostert is that he isn’t Sincere McCormick or Zamir White.

In the 18th round as RB73, there’s not much to lose if you do draft Mostert, though, without an injury to Jeanty, I am not sure there is much to gain, either.

J.K. Dobbins

(Denver Broncos)

FFPC May ADP: 160 (RB57)

FFPC July ADP: 99 (RB35)

Up 61 Spots

Likely one of the more decision points on our list today lies in the Broncos’ backfield. With J.K. Dobbins now moving comfortably inside the first half of drafts and rookie backfield mate R.J. Harvey being taken inside the fifth round, fantasy managers will need to decide which side of the fence they are on here.

As it is not usually advisable to sink top-10 round draft picks into two running backs from the same team, you will have to decide whether you believe more in the pre-injury production that Dobbins provided last year with the Chargers or the highly productive college profile of Harvey. Early reports from Broncos reporters suggest Dobbins will be the RB1 on the depth chart, as coach Sean Payton may be giving Dobbins some veteran deference.

If true, this may lead to some early-season production from Dobbins, who, if he remains healthy and productive to begin the season, may hamper the much-anticipated takeoff of the rookie and return some nice value for fantasy managers who choose Dobbins.

Bonus Running Back

D’Andre Swift

(Chicago Bears)

FFPC May ADP: 75 (RB27)

FFPC July ADP: 60 (RB22)

Up 15 Spots

D’Andre Swift has been discussed much of the off-season, as he survived the NFL draft without the Bears spending significant draft capital for a rookie running back. They selected Kyle Monangai out of Rutgers in the seventh round. They also failed to add anyone from the free agent market after rumors that they were extremely interested in bringing in Nick Chubb.

Alas, Chubb signed with Houston, so Swift’s competition is third-year back Roschon Johnson, Monangai, and seventh-year veteran Travis Homer, who enters his third season with the Bears. Swift has never finished worse than RB21 in PPR formats, and is currently being drafted as RB22.

In the Ben Johnson offense, there is a potential for Swift to fill the Jahmyr Gibbs role, which comes with a strong double-digit target share. Swift is capable of handling such a workload, as his career target-share is around 13%. As a capable pass catcher, and his ability to handle 250+ rushes as well, the upside is there for him to return value at his ADP.

Draft Timing Implications

As laid out in my aforementioned article, running backs stole the show when it comes to providing value when targeting ADP movement buckets. Specifically, the one we are looking at here, with players moving up 20+ spots, both early and late-season drafters often profit by targeting running backs in this bucket.

This bucket has the second-highest EV for late-season drafters, with 65% of running backs returning value with an average positional improvement of four spots for all players, and 17 spots for those who do return value. Early-season drafters see an average value of 20 spots, with 32 spots for just players who returned value.

This bodes well for the three primary running backs discussed today. Most of them are cheap enough that the reward likely outweighs the risk, and given the strong 65% hit rate for late-season drafters, they should not be scared off by the early-drafters steaming these guys up in drafts.

Swift is the exception, as with Purdy, his current ADP movement of +15 spots places him in a lower EV bucket where only 41% of running backs drafted here return value for late-season drafters with an average positional loss of three spots, while early-season drafters see a modest profit of four spots of value.

Wide Receiver

Demario “Pop” Douglas

(New England Patriots)

FFPC May ADP: 249 (WR88)

FFPC July ADP: 173 (WR65)

Up 76 Spots

This completely revamped Patriots passing attack adds some new faces and retains some old ones, too. Among the returning weapons from last year is Demario “Pop” Douglas. While Douglas’s stats from last year don’t 'pop' off the page, he was second on the team in targets and performed admirably given the offensive environment last year.

The main players returning with Douglas are veteran tight end Hunter Henry, who led the team in targets last year, and Kayshon Boutte. They also added Stefon Diggs via free agency and drafted rookie Kyle Williams out of Washington State in the third round.

Early reports out of training camp suggest Douglas looks improved this season, displaying leadership, consistency, and explosive playmaking abilities. With many expecting a breakout season from second-year quarterback Drake Maye, Douglas has an opportunity to step up and fill the slot role, one that has proven valuable under a Josh McDaniels offense in the past.

Ray-Ray McCloud

(Atlanta Falcons)

FFPC May ADP: 299 (WR104)

FFPC July ADP: 234 (WR86)

Up 65 Spots

Ray-Ray McCloud’s 65-spot rise may seem a bit puzzling, but it makes some sense when you look at the whole picture. He is slated as the slot wide receiver according to Ourlads, and he did have a fairly productive season for the Falcons last year. He was third on the team in targets behind Drake London and Darnell Mooney.

Though not super fast, he is quick and is capable of filling an outside receiver role as he was asked to do last year when Mooney missed time. Mooney sustained a shoulder injury on the first day of camp last week, which means McCloud will be asked to step up once again and help fill that void until Mooney returns.

If Mooney is unable to start the season, McCloud’s early role could mean increased opportunity. With second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and his “gunslinger” mentality, those early opportunities could lead to early production. Having gone from undrafted territory to the final pick in your 20-round drafts, you could do a lot worse than McCloud.

Jalen Tolbert

(Dallas Cowboys)

FFPC May ADP: 280 (WR98)

FFPC July ADP: 227 (WR79)

Up 53 Spots

Yet one more Cowboy on the list, third-year wide receiver Jalen Tolbert, rounds out our top-three risers. Like McCloud, he has gone from undrafted to being in the rounds 19/20 turn. From everything I can see, the rise in Tolbert’s ADP may simply be a rising-tides effect.

With the addition of the aforementioned Pickens, the return of Lamb and Ferguson, and the camp-buzz being loud for almost everyone except for Tolbert, this rise does not seem warranted. While still projected as the WR3, some suggest that Tolbert may not hang onto that spot as training camp progresses.

As a round 19 or 20 pick, there is hardly any risk, but almost all of the noise coming out of Dallas suggests there may not be much reward, either.

Bonus Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman Jr.

(Indianapolis Colts)

FFPC May ADP: 120 (WR52)

FFPC July ADP: 102 (WR47)

Up 18 Spots

Your bonus wide receiver comes with a lot of question marks at a much higher opportunity cost than the three previous wide receivers discussed. Michael Pittman Jr. is coming off a disappointing season where he finished as the WR41 in PPR leagues, while he was drafted as WR22. This draft-day bust has an explanation and may provide some insight into why his rise in ADP this year is valid.

Pittman played most of last season with a lower-back fracture, though he appeared in all but one game. He displayed toughness during a season when he could have easily sat out, as the Colts could never put it together in a lost season. One positive that came from Pittman’s hindered involvement in the offense was the emergence of Josh Downs, who only trailed Pittman by four targets and had three more receptions.

The quarterback situation is in flux, as during OTAs earlier in the offseason, Anthony Richardson sustained a shoulder injury that forced him to miss all of veteran minicamp. Daniel Jones took the first team reps during that time, leaving many to believe Jones was the presumed frontrunner heading into training camp this month. However, it appears as though Richardson has recovered from that injury and is sharing first-team reps (and looking good doing so).

While Pittman has fully recovered from the back injury, he did sustain a groin injury in practice on Tuesday, so that is something to monitor. As long as it is not serious, I foresee a bounce-back year for Pittman. Before last year’s injury-plagued season, he finished as WR17, WR19, and WR13 from 2021-2023. If he can return to this prior production, he will be a draft-day steal at his current price of WR47.

Draft Timing Implications

The data suggests that early-season drafters are going to benefit a lot more than late-season drafters when it comes to the big risers at wide receiver. Wide receivers who move 20+ spots during draft season return 10 spots of value to early-season drafters, while late-season drafters lose 3 spots of value on average.

While the hit rate for returning value for late-season drafters may be decent at 52%, the penalty when players fail to hit their positional ADP is a loss of 30 spots. Players who return value do so at around 21 spots. This 20+ riser bucket has one of the larger player samples with 85 wide receivers doing so since 2019.

With such a large sample and the huge loss of positional value for wide receivers who fail to meet their positional ADP, it represents a negative EV. If drafting late in the season, and you are risk-seeking, this could be an area to target if you choose wisely, but be aware that the penalty can be massive.

As for Pittman, the story is similar, as he falls into the +15-19 ADP bucket. Neither early nor late-season drafters typically return profit here, though it is one of the smaller player samples at only 17 total wide receivers. That said, I stand by my assessment with Pittman, and it is a risk I am willing to take despite the data disagreeing.

Tight End

Juwan Johnson

(New Orleans Saints)

FFPC May ADP: 243 (TE36)

FFPC July ADP: 214 (TE30)

Up 29 Spots

Likely not moving the needle for many fantasy managers, it is still worth discussing. Juwan Johnson has moved up 29 spots from being borderline undrafted to the 18th round. In FFPC drafts, taking a second or third tight end in this range is very common, so Johnson deserves some attention.

There are many questions surrounding this offense, from who the starting quarterback is going to be to whether Chris Olave can stay healthy for a full season. It is this uncertainty that makes the Saints' offense one of the cheaper ones to invest in this year in fantasy.

Johnson finished as the TE16 in FFPC leagues last year, earning just over a 16% target share. Who knows what this offense looks like in 2025, but as your second or third tight end, Johnson isn’t a bad option. And one can’t ignore the college shower narrative; rookie quarterback Tyler Shough played with Johnson at Oregon in 2019. If it’s good enough for Justin Fields and Garrett Wilson, it’s good enough for Johnson…

Ja’Tavion Sanders

(Carolina Panthers)
FFPC May ADP: 239 (TE35)

FFPC July ADP: 222 (TE34)

Up 17 Spots

Drafted in a similar range as Johnson, Ja’Tavion Sanders’s 17-spot rise is multi-faceted. First, the Carolina offense is expected to take a step forward with Bryce Young entering his third season, and showing a renewed ability to perform closer to what his number one overall pick suggested is possible.

Secondly, it was announced that presumed starter Tommy Tremble had back surgery in May. With Tremble landing on the PUP, the fear is that he may miss the season opener. That opens the door for the second-year Sanders to take the lead tight end spot and keep himself atop the depth chart. Sanders has a nice size-speed profile and produced well at the college level with an early breakout sophomore season at age 19.

Like Johnson, this is a late-round dart throw as a second or third tight end. Little risk and likely little reward, but you never know when a late-round tight end may become relevant.

Elijah Arroyo

(Seattle Seahawks)

FFPC May ADP: 181 (TE26)

FFPC July ADP: 166 (TE24)

Up 15 Spots

Certainly, the most interesting of the three, rookie Elijah Arroyo, has a ton of things going for him. The Seahawks released veteran tight end Noah Fant earlier this month, opening up the depth chart for Arroyo. Second-year tight end A.J. Barner is the presumed starter as of right now, though I feel he profiles more as a blocking tight end than a real receiving threat.

And that is where the opportunity lies for Arroyo. I spoke briefly about Arroyo in my rookie tight end article, describing how the athletic pass-catcher could find himself on the field early if things broke right. Fant’s departure is step one. Glowing camp reports are step two.

I would not be surprised to see Arroyo's draft stock continue to move in this direction, with his ADP movement exceeding 20+ spots by the end of August. If you have the opportunity to draft now, and are interested in an inexpensive share of Arroyo, I would do so now and put him on your draft plan to take in round 13 or 14.

Bonus Tight End

David Njoku

(Cleveland Browns)

FFPC May ADP: 83 (TE10)

FFPC July ADP: 74 (TE8)

Up 9 Spots

Our bonus tight end is likely a lot more relevant for most drafters. David Njoku has crept into the seventh round, well inside the TE1 tier at TE8 overall. Despite all of the uncertainty surrounding the Browns, Njoku is slowly moving up draft boards.

Referencing back to my rookie tight end article, I discussed the possibility of rookie Harold Fannin Jr. seeing early playing time if the Browns decided to deploy 12 personnel, more so to address the lack of a viable third wide receiver than a desire to have two “tight ends” on the field. Fannin offers another dynamic pass-catching option, though I was never concerned that his presence would supplant Njoku’s opportunities.

Fantasy managers continue to be bullish on Njoku’s prospects this year. We will see whether that changes as the quarterback situation begins to sort itself out during training camp. If the 40-year-old Joe Flacco gets the nod, this would ironically fortify Njoku’s draft perception, keeping him at or near the sixth or seventh round in FFPC drafts.

Draft Timing Implications

The tight ends covered above have less-than-desirable results for late-season drafters. While tight ends that have moved up 20+ spots in ADP have a 57% hit rate of returning value for late-season drafters, on average, fantasy managers lose one spot of value. That’s because, despite the positive hit rate, tight ends that returned value did so by 11 spots while those who did not return value lost 16 spots of positional value. Therefore, this ADP movement bucket has a negative EV. 

Early-season drafters do benefit with this group of players, however, returning nine spots of positional value on average and a massive 21 spots for the tight ends that returned value.

The second bucket of +15-19 spots isn’t great for either early or late-season drafters. Though it has a very small sample of five players, the hit rate for late-season drafters is only 40% and they lose five spots of positional value on average. Early-season drafters don’t fare well either, losing two positional spots of value on average.

Unfortunately, we don’t have any examples of rookie tight ends who were drafted 15-19 spots higher since 2019, so Arroyo is a unique case. Rookie tight ends drafted 10-14 spots earlier (two total), however, both returned value and did so by 10 positional spots. The one rookie tight end drafted 20+ spots higher (Luke Musgrave) lost eight spots of positional value. It will be interesting to see where Arroyo’s ADP finishes and how he adds to the historical data.