2025 Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Shortstop Edition

By Hunter CondrillJanuary 29, 2025
2025 Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Shortstop Edition

Hello everyone! It’s time for another edition of my 2025 fantasy baseball season analysis. Today, we’re taking a look at shortstop. Probably the deepest position for fantasy baseball, shortstop has four players ranked in the top ten overall and nine within the top 55 for ADP.  So, let’s dive in! I use Fantasy Pros to analyze the average draft position(ADP). I also use Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for my research.

 

 

Every other position so far...

 

 

Top Five 2025 2nd Basemen

 

Honorable Mention

 

Trea Turner

(Philadelphia Phillies)

 

2024 Stats:

.295/.338/.469 21 HR, 62 RBI

 

Trea Turner, an American hero, has been as reliable as anyone for the shortstop position over the last few seasons. From 2021-2024, Turner averaged 33 doubles, 24 home runs, 79 runs batted in, and 27 stolen bases while slashing .296/.344/.482. Last year, Turner was on pace for those stats but missed time due to a hamstring strain.

 

He also had a tale of two halves, starting hot in the first half(.941 OPS) and going ice cold in the second(.687 OPS). It’s also worth noting that he’s getting further past his prime(he turns 32 on June 30th), so the speed he’s known for could go away. I think Turner will have a reliable 2025 season. But he’s a tier down from everyone else on this list. 

  

 

5. Francisco Lindor

(New York Mets)

 

2024 Stats:

.273/.344/.500 33 HR, 91 RBI, 29 SB

 

 

If this wasn’t a fantasy ranking, Francisco Lindor would be higher on this list. After finishing ninth in MVP voting in 2022 and 2023, Lindor finished runner-up with a monster 2024 season. With a .844 OPS, .227 ISO, and impressive defense, Lindor was the heart and soul of the New York Mets. However, Lindor finished fourth in most fantasy leagues last year and could've been fifth if Mookie Betts hadn't been injured. 

 

That being said, there's still a lot to love about Lindor’s fantasy outlook in 2025. Firstly, he underperformed his expected stats. An expected slash line of .283/.379/.528, his expected OPS would've been .907. He's also a reliable base stealer. Since the rule changes made in 2023, Lindor has averaged 30 stolen bases.

 

Lindor doesn't have game-breaking speed; he ranked in the 58th percentile in sprint speed but can pick the most opportune times to steal bases(his stolen base percentage was 88% over those two seasons). Lindor was also a much better player in the second half of 2024, posting a .943 OPS. Making him a much better asset in the fantasy playoffs.

 

4. Mookie Betts

(Los Angeles Dodgers)

 

2024 Stats:

.289/.372/.491 19 HR, 75 RBI

 

 

2024 was, by all means, a down year for Mookie Betts. He played the least amount of games in his career(excluding his rookie season and the COVID season), and he also posted his second-lowest OPS of the past seven seasons(.863). That being said, a .863 OPS(along with a 145 OPS+), 19 homers, 16 steals, and 75 runs batted while only playing in 71% of the season is pretty damn good. A lot of his success can be attributed to his elite plate discipline

 

Betts should be a pretty safe bet (hahaha, get it? I'm so funny) for a bounce-back season in 2025. I mean, he is a Hall of Famer in the making. It wouldn't be a stretch to see Betts have a 40-double, 30 homer, 20 steal season in 2025. 

 

 

3. Elly De La Cruz

(Cincinnati Reds)

 

2024 Stats:

.259/.339/.471 25 HR, 76 RBI, 67 SB

 

 

Elly De La Cruz is one of the most exciting players in major league baseball. He has above-average power and some of the best speed in baseball(he ranked in the 100th percentile in sprint speed). De La Cruz led the league in stolen bases, caught stealing, and strikeouts last season. He was also an extremely streaky player with lows of his .585 OPS in May and highs of his .982 OPS in April. However, even when the bat cools off he was able to maintain fantasy production with his base stealing ability. 

 

Ultimately, his savant page speaks loudest about who he is as a player and why he's so loved. The guy is a phenomenal baseball player. He finished third at shortstop and top ten among hitters in most formats for the 2024 season. Not to mention, he’s only 23 years old. De La Cruz has shown the ability to be a true five-tool player. If he can improve on his over-aggressiveness, the skies are the limit for him. 

 

2. Gunnar Henderson

(Baltimore Orioles)

 

2024 Stats:

.281/.364/.529 37 HR, 92 RBI, 21 SB 

 

 

Gunnar Henderson was one of the best players in baseball in 2024. Henderson was top ten in the MLB in home runs, triples, and walks. He also had plenty of great underlying stats. A remarkable .893 OPS, 159 OPS+, and .248 ISO. Simply put, the guy hits the ball hard. He ranked in the 97th percentile for hard-hit%. 

 

Henderson finished second among shortstops and top seven among hitters in fantasy scoring last year. He also finished fourth in MVP voting for the American League. I expect another great season for Henderson, and wouldn't be surprised to see a 40/30 season with over 100 runs batted in.

 

 

1. Bobby Witt Jr.

(Kansas City Royals)

 

2024 Stats:

.332/.389/.588 32 HR, 109 RBI, 31 SB

 

 

In a position loaded with talent, Bobby Witt Jr. stands pretty tall as first for his position. Witt was a top-tier fantasy asset last year, finishing third overall among hitters in most leagues. He was a clear step above his counterparts. Witt was also one of the best players overall. He led all of baseball in batting average and hits and finished fourth in OPS, sixth in RBI, third in runs, second in doubles, and third in triples. There's a reason Witt finished second in MVP voting for the American League: he's one of the most valuable players in the league. 

 

Witt has improved significantly every year he's played the majors. His OPS+ rose from 102 to 116 as a sophomore, then to an insane 171 this last year. Is there another level he can reach this year? It'll be fun to find out. Either way, Witt is going to have a monster 2025 and should go first overall in plenty of drafts.

 

Breakouts to Target

 

Matt McLain

(Cincinnati Reds)

 

Matt McLain was ranked fifth in my second baseman rankings, yet falls outside the top ten for shortstop. That shows just how impressive the talent in this position is. McLain missed all of 2024 with multiple injuries, but he did a fantastic job in his rookie season. After making his debut on May 15th, he proceeded to put up a slash line of .290/.357/.507 with a .864 OPS and an OPS+ of 127.

 

Over a 162-game average, McLain would've had 42 doubles, 29 home runs, 91 runs batted in, and 25 stolen bases. While you can’t take those as facts, it's still a sign that his potential is top-tier. There's room for improvement with McLain. His strikeout percentage is high, his walk rate is below average, and he has a good but not great stolen base percentage.

 

But he's shown his positives far outweigh the negatives. It’s unlikely he will become a top-five shortstop, but that's due to the otherworldly talent they have instead of McLain’s talent. 

 

 

Xavier Edwards

(Miami Marlins)

 

Xavier Edwards had a 60-hit and 65-run grade as a prospect, and he's shown those on every level so far. He posted a .313 average throughout the minor leagues and averaged 20 steals a year. Upon getting the call in early July of last year, Edwards became a bright spot on an otherwise depressing Marlins team. Slashing .328/397/.423 with a 124 OPS +.

 

More impressively, though, he stole 31 bases in just 70 games. His ability to get on base should continue to translate at the MLB level, although I expect his walk rate to drop slightly. That being said. Edwards should have a pretty safe floor, hitting .300 with little power and lots of stolen bases. His ceiling could be a similar slash line to this year, along with 50-60 stolen bases.

  

Jacob Wilson

(Athletics)

 

Jacob Wilson is highly touted for his ability to make contact. Hitting over .400 in college, Wilson got taken sixth overall in the 2023 draft. Since then, he’s zoomed up the ranks and even got some playing time on the Athletics last season. He's proven himself with every single opportunity so far. Wilson had a batting average of .433 across three minor league levels last season. His time with the Athletics wasn’t great, posting an 85 OPS+ over 28 games.

 

He’ll have another opportunity next year, as he’s projected to be in the starting lineup for 2025. Wilson should have a relatively safe floor with his ability to make contact and has a pretty interesting ceiling if he can put it all together.

 

Jordan Lawlar

(Arizona Diamondbacks)

 

Marcelo Mayer

(Boston Red Sox)

 

Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer are in a similar position, which is why I'm placing them together. Both are top prospects(Lawlar 11, Mayer 12 on MLB's top 100) who aren’t projected to start opening day but can force their way into starting lineups and become intriguing fantasy options. Lawlar has been an electric player since being drafted. Posting an OPS of .874 or better every year in the minors while stealing 36 and 39 bases in 2023 and 2022.

 

 

Injuries limited his 2024 season to 23 games, but he seems ready to take the next step. His 70-grade speed should translate well in the majors, and he has the potential to steal at least 40 a season. He won't be a huge home run hitter, but should still accumulate plenty of doubles and triples in Arizona.

 

Mayer was a great player in college, which is why he was drafted fourth overall in 2021. Since being drafted, Mayer has continued to improve against each level of competition. Most recently hitting .307/.370/.480 in AA ball.

 

Despite not having game-breaking speed(40-grade speed), Mayer isn't afraid to steal when the opportunity arises. He stole 13 bases in 77 games last year. People believe Mayer should arrive in the majors this year, but considering he hasn’t played in AAA yet, I expect at least a small stint in the minors to start the year. 

 

Players to Avoid

 

Xander Bogaerts

(San Diego Padres)

 

After signing a huge contract with the Padres, Xander Bogaerts had a first year full of highs and lows that ultimately ended as a disappointing first year. Disappointment turned to horror last year as Bogaerts regressed in virtually every category. Most notably, he lost a ton of power, slugging .381 on the season. Projections seem to believe Bogaerts bounces back, but I disagree.

 

Over the four years from 2018 to 2021, Bogaerts never had an ISO below .198. Since then, it’s dropped to .149, .154, and .117. His walk rate also dropped from 8.4% to 6%. For his ADP, it makes a lot more sense to draft anyone else in that range. 

 

Oneil Cruz

(Pittsburgh Pirates)

 

Oneil Cruz isn't a huge avoid for me. There's plenty of upsides to his game. He hits the ball extremely hard and has enough speed to steal bases. However, there's also a huge red flag in his atrocious strikeout rate. He's improved on it, going from 34.9%(good enough for first percentile) to 30.30.2%(eighth percentile). Cruz’s ADP is too high for me. I'd prefer to take a top-seven shortstop or go with Willy Adames, who's a lower ADP.

  

 

CJ Abrams

(Washington Nationals)

 

CJ Abrams started his 2024 season hot, hitting a .982 OPS in April. Then he went ice cold, posting a measly .519 OPS in May. Over the first half of the season, Abrams had a .220 ISO and .831 OPS. In his second half, he had a .123 ISO and .586 OPS. He’s got plenty of upside. He's got great speed, stealing 31 bases last year and 47 in 2023.

 

If he can just hit more consistently, he's a much higher guy on my list. He hasn’t shown it, though, and I don't want to draft a player in the fifth round who is unstartable at times.

  

FTR My Guys

 

Zach Neto

(Los Angeles Angels)

 

Last year, Zach Neto finished eighth in the Yahoo and Fantrax leagues. Yet this year, he’s being drafted as SS18. He was pretty solid last year, putting up a .761 OPS along with 34 doubles and 30 steals. He’s not gonna be a league winner, but he's a reliable player who should be good value at his ADP.

  

Carlos Correa

(Minnesota Twins)

 

Carlos Correa is very low on draft boards for some fair reasons. He was horrible in 2023, slashing .230/.312/.399 with only 18 home runs and 65 runs batted in. Then he was unhealthy in 2024, only playing in 86 games. However, 2023 could've easily been a fluke year, and his 2024 proved that. Correa was having one of the best years of his career based on his slash line, putting up an impressive .310/.388/.517, along with 14 home runs and 54 runs batted in.

 

He also posted his best-ever strikeout percentage(16.6%) and an above-average walk percentage(10.9%). Will Correa have another good year, this time fully healthy? Maybe, maybe not. But at his ADP, it seems like a low-risk, high-reward pick.

 

 

Matt McLain

(Cincinnati Reds)

 

I already spoke about him above, so I’ll keep this short. In 2023, McLain was second or third in points per game for most league formats(he was seventh for ESPN). As the SS11, he can easily be worth his ADP and be a potential league winner. 

 

Synopsis

 

Shortstop is a loaded position, no doubt about that. It's likely you end up taking one of the top six in the first two rounds. That being said, there's still plenty of value outside of the top bunch. Guys like Ezequiel Tovar, Xavier Edwards, Zach Neto, and Bo Bichette can end up being solid starting options. Even players I’m avoiding, like Oneil Cruz, Willy Adames, and Anthony Volpe, have plenty of reasons to outplay their ADP and be valuable starters.

 

My best advice is to focus on players with multiple position eligibility. It’s gotten harder, considering Gunnar Henderson and Elly De La Cruz lost third base eligibility, but you're still able to find plenty of guys who have it. On that note, I’ll ask you all. Who are your targets for 2025 drafts? Who do you think will break out?