Hello everyone! It’s time for another edition of my 2025 fantasy baseball season analysis. Today, we’re taking a look at third base. The hot corner is loaded with talent, both old and young. It’s one of the strongest positions in fantasy baseball, so it’s hard to really go wrong with your choice.
There are, however, guys who might have a slight edge over their peers and guys who might not be as valuable as their average draft position. So, let’s dive in! I use Fantasy Pros to analyze the average draft position(ADP). I also use Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for my research.
Top 5 2025 Third Basemen
Honorable Mention
Jazz Chisholm Jr
(New York Yankees)
2024 Stats: .
256/.324/.436 24 HR, 73 RBI, 40 SB
Jazz Chisholm Jr’s fantasy outlook for 2025 greatly depends on which version of him you think you’re getting. Before the 2024 season, Chisholm Jr. had a career 102 OPS+. He’s had great potential offensively, as shown by him posting an OPS of .860 in 2022. But his inability to stay healthy has always hurt him; he only played 100 or more games in two seasons. His 2024 is where things get interesting. Over his 101 games with the Marlins, Chisholm had a 97 OPS+ while hitting 13 home runs and stealing 22 bases.
In his 46 with the Yankees, Chisholm had a 130 OPS+ while hitting 11 home runs and stealing 18 bases. Part of his success might be due to hitting in Yankee Stadium, which is the third-best ballpark for lefties to hit home runs. Part of it could be his new role on the Yankees, which would allow him to shine without as much pressure, considering he isn’t the star player of the team anymore.
Either way, I believe a healthy Jazz Chisholm will have a productive 2025. We could easily see a 25/40 type of season from him, with the potential for more.
5. Manny Machado
(San Diego Padres)
2024 Stats:
.275/.325/.472 29 HR, 105 RBI
Manny Machado is an extremely reliable fantasy asset at third base. He’s played 150 games or more in four of his last six seasons and averages around 30 home runs and 100 RBI in each of those years. Machado struggled a little in the first half last year. He only hit 13 home runs and had a slugging percentage of .422. This was largely due to a very slow start, with a .692 OPS in March/April, and an even worse .610 OPS in May.
He turned it around, though, with a second-half OPS of .876. Jazz Chisholm is higher on draft boards for his potential. I think Machado is the better, or at least more reliable, choice. He should be a top-five third baseman again for fantasy this season.
4. Austin Riley
(Atlanta Braves)
2024 Stats:
.256/.322/.461 19 HR, 56 RBI
Since breaking out in 2021, Austin Riley has been a force at third base. Between 2021 and 2023, Riley averaged 35 doubles, 36 home runs, and 99 runs batted in, with an OPS of .878. He’s been a top-three finish for his position in each of those years among most formats (ESPN’s format gives him a top-six or better finish every season). Riley had a down year last season. His .783 OPS was the worst since his breakout, and by a decent amount as well (.078 points).
His season was cut short in August to a broken hand. Even in his down year, Riley hit the ball very well. Riley’s expected stats were much closer to the production of his previous seasons than his down year. His ISO was down, although it was still in that premier range at .205. With a healthy Braves lineup and a healthy Austin Riley, I’m confident that Riley will put up a similar stat line to his 2021-23 seasons in 2025.
3. Rafael Devers
(Boston Red Sox)
2024 Stats:
.272/.354/.516 28 HR, 83 RBI
It’s an extremely close battle for second place between Austin Riley and Rafael Devers. In the same three-year span, Devers averaged more doubles(38), fewer home runs(33), and more runs batted in(100). Their OPS’ were similar, with Devers being slightly worse(.873). Their 2024 season is what puts Devers ahead. While Riley took a step back, Devers had another solid year with 34 doubles, an OPS of .871, and some phenomenal underlying metrics.
Devers’ 11.1% walk percentage was the best of his career, and his .244 ISO was tied for the second-best of his career. Neither of these choices are wrong. It’s really personal preference for who you believe is better. I think Devers’ 2024 season puts him slightly ahead, but they’re both going to have a great 2025.
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
(Toronto Blue Jays)
2024 Stats:
.323/.396/.544 30 HR, 103 RBI
While it’s still to be determined if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Will play the hot corner this year, he should have third base eligibility in most fantasy formats. After a monster in 2021, where he had a league-leading 1.002 OPS and a 167 OPS+, Guerrero Jr. regressed to a good-but-not-great bat. Posting an OPS of .818 and .788 in 2022 and 2023. 2024 finally saw the return of the Vladdy we know and love.
While he didn’t lead the league in any major stat, he was second in the league in batting average, sixth in OPS, third in hits, and fourth in doubles. Simply put, he was a beast last year. That resulted in a fourth-place finish for Yahoo and Fantrax and a second-place finish on ESPN among all third basemen. Two of the players who finished above Guerrero Jr. in Yanoo and Fantrax are also no longer eligible for third base (Gunnar Henderson and Elly De La Cruz). His dominant 2024, along with his top ten overall ceiling, put him firmly in second place for me.
1. Jose Ramirez
(Cleveland Guardians)
2024 Stats:
.279/.335/.537 39 HR, 118 RBI, 41 SB
I mean, really, was there even a debate for first place? Out of all hitters for the 2024 season, Jose Ramirez was the third-best fantasy scorer for Yahoo and fifth-best for ESPN and Fantrax. Over the last three seasons, Ramirez has posted a 140 OPS+ while averaging 40 doubles, 31 home runs, 108 RBI, and 30 stolen bases. He’s got the power capabilities of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with the base-stealing capabilities of Jazz Chisholm.
While it’s varied throughout the years, Ramirez has always posted an impressive ISO. Outside of his first full season, his low is still a borderline great .193, while his high is an astronomical .315. The point is, the guy can hit. There’s a reason he was the best fantasy scorer at his position for three of the last four seasons. I expect another MVP candidate season for Jose Ramirez and another top three, likely top one, finish.
Breakouts to Target
Junior Caminero
(Tampa Bay Rays)
Junior Caminero has been a top prospect in the Rays system and got his first taste of MLB action in 2023. Going from AA to the majors, skipping AAA entirely. Many people, myself included, hoped he’d break the opening day roster in 2024 and become a vital part of the Rays team. Unfortunately, the Rays kept him down to start the season. Then, he suffered a quad strain, which kept him out for weeks.
Finally, on August 13th, he got the call. Caminero was pretty solid to start, posting a 121 OPS+ in August. But a weak September/October lowered his season to a 105 OPS+. Either way, a .176 ISO is above average for any player, let alone a 20-year-old.
The expectation for this year is that Caminero will make the opening-day roster and have a productive season. Fangraphs projects Caminero to post a .778 OPS, hit 28 home runs, and a 122 OPS+. We’ve seen top prospects break out in their rookie season, and Junior Caminero can easily be that.
Noelvi Marte
(Cincinnati Reds)
Noelvi Marte’s 2024 season was disastrous, to say the least. He missed the first 80 games of the season to a PED suspension, and was horrible when he finally played. Posting a slash line of .210/.248/.301, an OPS+ of 49, and a WAR of -1.8 over 66 games. That’s a season average of negative 4.4 WAR. I think there’s still upside in him. He’s only 23 and had great production in the minors as well as a respectable coming out party in 2023(.822 OPS in 35 games).
He had a nice blend of power and speed as a prospect and still has time to put it all together on the big-league level. Marte will have obstacles to overcome. He’s not projected to start this year, and he obviously needs to get the bat back to where it was in the minors and 2023. But the upside is a 20/20 season on a loaded lineup. I wouldn’t give up much to get him, but with an ADP of 257, he’s an interesting pick.
Coby Mayo
(Baltimore Orioles)
Matt Shaw
(Chicago Cubs)
I’m combining these guys together, as they both have pretty similar stories. Both are top prospects in Major League Baseball (Mayo eighth, Shaw 22nd), both have above average scouting grades in terms of hitting (Shaw: 55 hit, 55 power, Mayo: 45 hit, 65 power), and both raked in AAA last year(Mayo .926 OPS, Shaw .929 OPS). They are different players.
Shaw has more base stealing potential, and Mayo has more home run potential. Regardless, they’re both top prospects that are primed for a breakout. Shaw has a clearer path to playing time, which is probably why his ADP is slightly higher than Mayo’s. But both choices are great for a NA stash.
Players to Avoid
Maikel Garcia
(Kansas City Royals)
Maikel Garcia is good at stealing bases(37 last year); that’s about it. He is horrible when it comes to hitting, posting a 72 OPS+ in 2024. His running and defense were enough to earn him a positive WAR for the year(1.2), but his extremely poor bat could remove him from the lineup. I’d rather take guys like Eugenio Suarez and Isaac Paredes or even wait a few more rounds and take Connor Norby.
Nolan Arenado
(St. Louis Cardinals)
Nolan Arenado has regressed heavily over the last two years. He finished third place in MVP voting in 2022 with 42 doubles, 30 home runs, a .293 average and a 150 OPS+. Last year, Arenado had 23 doubles, 16 home runs, a .272 average and a 101 OPS+. His power has disappeared, going from a .533 slugging in 2022 to a .394 (his ISO also dropped from .241 to .123).
Arenado finished 15th or worse for his position in fantasy scoring for 2024. He could recoup some lost power if he gets dealt to a team like the Red Sox, who have a better ballpark for right-handers. It’s unlikely he will return to being a fantasy asset.
While his average ADP is skewed thanks to Yahoo ranking him significantly higher than everyone else, I’d still take most guys ranked in the more accurate ADP range(200).
FTR My Guys
Mark Vientos
(New York Mets)
Mark Vientos struggled in his first stints in the major leagues. He posted a 30% strikeout rate, ten home runs, and a weak .610 OPS over his first 81 games between 2022-2023. Vientos was finally ready in 2024. He dropped his K% to 24.6, hit 12 home runs, and hit an outstanding .896 OPS over his first 50 games of the season.
He took over the starting third baseman spot from top prospect Brett Baty. While Vientos took a step back over the second half of the season, he still posted a .791 OPS over that half and finished the season with a .837 OPS with an OPS+ of 135.
There are definitely some red flags with Vientos. He declined in production every month throughout last season and had an abysmal 38 strikeouts over 94 at-bats in September. His whiff and K percentages are bottom of the barrel. He’s also a pretty poor fielder, with -7 outs above average last season.
There’s definitely a possibility Vientos will take over first base if Pete Alonso signs elsewhere. Overall, though, Vientos is a great hitter who bats in the heart of a Mets lineup that’s only improved by signing Juan Soto. I’d bet that Vientos outperforms his 2025 projections and has the upside to be a top-tier fantasy asset for the hot corner.
Max Muncy
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
It looked like father time was catching up with Max Muncy in his 2021 and 2022 seasons. Posting an OPS+ of 100 and 117, Muncy’s batting average and some power had taken a downturn. 2024, however, was a great turnaround for him. Posting an impressive slash line of .232/.358/.494 with 17 doubles and 15 home runs over 73 games. His OPS+ of 141 is the second-best of his career. A large part of his success is due to his approach.
Although he didn’t have enough at-bats to qualify, Muncy would’ve been one of the best hitters in baseball in terms of walk percentage. He was fifth among all MLB hitters with at least 200 at-bats this year. Muncy also hits for a lot of power, with a .262 ISO last season. He’s projected to bat fifth in a loaded Dodgers lineup and should be put in plenty of scenarios to drive runs in. Muncy isn’t being drafted in the top 15 for his position, and his average ADP of 182 seems to be a great value pick to me.
Matt Shaw
(Chicago Cubs)
I briefly spoke about Matt Shaw in my breakouts to target section, and he is likely a guy I’m trying to add in most leagues. He’s a great blend of power and speed, posting 21 home runs and 31 stolen bases in 121 minor league games last year. I also like his ability to play multiple positions.
He could fill in for Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson on their days off and gain eligibility once he gets the call. He’s got a pretty good chance of making the opening-day roster, and his late-round ADP makes him an easy hold.
Synopsis
Third base is a pretty loaded position, with eight players ranked top 100 in ADP. It also has a ton of high upside, guys. Players like Jake Burger, Alec Bohm, Matt Chapman, Jordan Westburg, and Eugenio Suarez all have some solid upside, albeit most also have red flags as well. All in all, there’s really nobody in the top 20 that I would really hate to have aside from Nolan Arenado and Maikel Garcia. I am hesitant on Royce Lewis though.
The upside is there, he posted a mind boggling .393 ISO and a 1.039 OPS in the first half of 2024. But his poor second half(.620 OPS over 58 games) and his inability to stay healthy(only 24 games played in the first half of 2024) make me wonder if the risk is worth the reward.