Week 5 of the NFL season is in the books, and we’re starting to see some major movement in rookie snap shares, both good and bad. While I didn’t set out to write a rookie stock watch article, this week many of the biggest movers and shakers happened to be from the rookie class.
Unfortunately, it’s not exactly easy to acquire performing rookies, so we’ll have to dig deep to find actionable insights here. On the other hand, there might be an opportunity to buy players who are getting up to speed in terms of snap shares but who haven’t filled the stat sheet quite yet.
Stock Up
Emeka Egbuka
I can’t in good conscience exclude Egbuka from a rookie stock watch article, even if there’s essentially no actionable advice I can give on him. He’s pretty much untouchable for all of his dynasty owners at this point.
Egbuka now has back-to-back 100-yard games under his belt, and absolutely exploded last week for 163 yards and a touchdown. He looks primed to be the Bucs’ long-term WR1 whenever the old guard retires or moves on. If you do have your eye on acquiring Egbuka, there are really only two ways this can happen.
First off, if you’re managing an aging team and trying to start off a rebuilding phase, you could offer an RB1, or an aging QB1, for a package headlined by Egbuka. I’m not even sure that would work at this point.
The other possibility is that Egbuka slows down whenever (if?) Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are fully back up to speed, and a contending team could feel the need to dangle him in exchange for whoever is on a league-winning heater. Those are pretty much your only options. Good luck.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
After the Commanders waited a protracted amount of time to hand the keys to their most efficient running back, Croskey-Merritt finally exploded for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground to go along with 39 more yards through the air.
I would be remiss not to mention that his snap share was still mediocre at a measly 47%, but it’s only going to trend up from here. Down the stretch, Croskey-Merritt could easily be a high-end RB2 or better. He’s explosive and efficient, has been effective when called upon in the receiving game, has a running quarterback keeping linebackers honest, and is on a team that should reach the red zone frequently. All of the ingredients are there for a second-half league-winning type of run.
With Croskey-Merritt’s humble origins, there is a chance his owner is willing to “sell high” or take a profit on him. Pretty much any offer of a second rounder+ should be rejected, but it might be worth sending one out just in case.
Honestly, if you wanted to call your shot and offer a late first, I wouldn’t mock you. You just need to worry about the infamous trend of late-round running backs getting replaced in the following offseason.
Mason Taylor
While the Jets are terrible and their offense can hit some cold stretches, they are at least making a point of getting the ball to Mason Taylor. After a mini-breakout in Week 4, in which Taylor put up a 5-65-0 line, he then followed it up with an eyebrow-raising 9-67-0 line on a whopping 12 targets.
There is simply no ignoring 12 targets at the tight end position, regardless of game script, efficiency, etc. The Jets have the most wide-open pass-catching corps I’ve ever seen for the #2 target earner behind Garrett Wilson.
Taylor still needs to prove himself as a real-life good football player, but it’s clear he’s firmly entrenched as a dynasty asset for the foreseeable future. Whoever drafted Taylor in your league most likely spent a decent pick on him, so the notion of taking a profit on him won’t really convince them. Instead, he is a priority target in trades that package down from veteran performing players.
Jack Bech
We’re finally getting to players who didn’t light up the stat sheet, and therefore may be flying under the radar. Bech only produced a 3-27 receiving line, and his owner is likely disappointed in him.
However, Bech’s snap share spiked from 10% in Week 4 to 53% in Week 5, primarily siphoning snaps away from Dont'e Thornton. Some of the increase in snaps was likely due to game script, as both Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker saw about 10% fewer snaps than usual in a complete blowout game. Of course, that doesn’t explain the entirety of Bech’s newfound playing time.
In a receiver room that’s wide open long-term, particularly with Meyers’ holdout ending without a new contract, Bech is still tracking to take over as a flanker-slot hybrid long-term. At the very least, he controls his own destiny there.
Your league’s Bech owner might be happy just to recoup an early third-rounder for him if he’s not aware of this recent development, especially since Bech seemed to lose a training camp battle with Dont'e Thornton this offseason. I’ve written previously about why that’s an incorrect comparison.
Gunnar Helm
Helm didn’t light up the stat sheet, producing a modest 4-34 line, but he notably outsnapped Chig Okonkwo for the first time in his career, seeing the field for 66% of snaps compared to Chig’s 63%.
Okonkwo has always been a tantalizing player, but he’s never turned his ample launching pad into a productive fantasy role. At this point he is who he is, namely a limited player. He’s a “move” tight end who can generate yards after the catch, but he isn’t a full-service player who profiles as the true starter on a good offense.
Gunnar Helm on the other hand controls his own destiny in terms of developing into a full-service tight end who seldom leaves the field. To that end, his snap shares are trending up, and he’s earned the praise of offensive coordinator Nick Holz.
Any owner in TE-premium leagues could try to acquire him for a re-roll type of player and hope his owner is undervaluing him.
Pat Bryant
Moving on to an even deeper sleeper, Pat Bryant was held without a target against the Eagles, which is never a good sign. He did play at least 50% of the snaps for the first time this season, up from 33% a week ago.
I think it’s early to target a Byrant acquisition, but the trend in snap shares should grab our attention. Bryant is one to monitor in Week 6. He could go the other way too, if he goes on to establish himself as a target non-earner despite seeing the field.
Stock Down
Omarion Hampton
Hampton seemed primed to break out over the rest of the year, but has hit a major speed bump in the form of an ankle injury that landed him on injured reserve.
There’s almost no way he’s acquirable, but if he’s on a team that needs to win these next few weeks, he could be the centerpiece of a trade for an older high-scoring player.
TreVeyon Henderson
After Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumbling tendency reared its head in Week 4, Henderson seemed primed for a big game. Instead, Antonio Gibson and Stevenson were both more involved than Henderson early on in Week 5 until Gibson fell victim to a season-ending injury. Stevenson also fumbled once again.
Despite these circumstances, Henderson still had a quiet game, putting up only 27 total yards. While I do think Henderson becomes a great dynasty asset long-term, I highly doubt your leaguemate wants to sell him. The situation to look out for would be a Henderson owner who needs to win in the short-term and might flip him for a performing player.
Dylan Sampson
After a torrid Week 1 in which Sampson caught eight targets for 64 yards, he’s taken a major step back as the clear RB3 behind Quinshon Judkins and Jerome Ford.
Sampson is a buy, albeit a marginal win rather than a major one. Ford currently is getting the nod on third downs, in large part because of his experience in that role, and because he’s more trusted as a pass blocker.
Long term, Ford will not be a member of the Cleveland Browns, and the Browns’ vision is for Judkins and Sampson to develop into a 1-2 punch similar to the heyday of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. It doesn’t hurt that Sampson has performed admirably as a playmaker in the receiving game, albeit on very limited snaps.
I would try to re-roll less interesting players into Sampson, or offer a third-rounder, but you can’t pay too much given he’s clearly working behind Judkins in the pecking order. Any attempt to acquire Sampson should happen before the eventual Judkins suspension comes down the pipe.
Dont’e Thornton
Thornton has seen his snap share decline from a peak of 81% in week 2 to a mediocre 47% in Week 5. He also has not done much with his playing time, never catching more than two receptions in any game this season.
While he’s young and athletic, so far this season has played out like I predicted in the offseason. He’s the starter because he provides a dimension that nicely complements the rest of the receiving room, but his profile isn’t that of a target-earner. He’s a go-ball guy, one who helps football teams out with his presence, but not dynasty owners. Even a fully realized version of Thornton is still a player who goes off on your bench and clogs your roster. I would look to re-roll him.