As training camp starts and we get gloriously close to meaningful NFL football games, we enter into the most unreliable part of the entire dynasty season. Training camp is when most players are allegedly in the best shape of their lives and career scrubs are supposedly breaking out, and the training camp hyperbole is worse than ever this offseason.

 

 

A cottage industry of fantasy football content creators and aggregators has thrived in recent years, clipping every play and quoting every tweet without context or nuance. 

 

For this reason, knowing what to ignore is every bit as important as knowing what to listen to. As dynasty owners gain access to more information than ever before, the game requires us to be selective about what influences our valuations. 

 

In this article, I discuss three major training camp drumbeats, and whether we’re under or over-reacting to them.  In particular, I'll explain why we should be bullish on Colston Loveland, but not for the reason you think. Then, I break down why we should believe the Tank Bigsby hype, but how to do so responsibly. Finally, I pour some cold water on the Dont’e Thornton train that’s been gaining steam in Las Vegas.  

 

Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet is Already a 2nd-Teamer

 

The dynasty community got into a tizzy when it was reported that Cole Kmet has been working with the 2nd team in training camp. Surely this is a sign that it’s wheels up for Colston Loveland right? 

 

Unfortunately for Loveland owners, they can’t bury Cole Kmet, however much they would like to. On the other hand, my best guess for Colston Loveland’s level of involvement his rookie year is steadily increasing regardless. Let’s discuss the original piece of news everybody reacted to, and why to underreact to this.

Why This News Doesn’t

Affect Colston Loveland

 

The argument for why Loveland owners can dust Cole Kmet goes as follows: Colston Loveland is already ahead of Kmet on the depth chart, the current Bears regime spent the 10th overall pick on Loveland, and Cole Kmet’s contract is even cuttable in a year. Surely the writing is on the wall. 

 

There are actually several reasons I don’t buy this argument. First of all, Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland don’t play the same role. This season, Kmet will be deployed as a classic Y tight end, i.e. one who is in-line and asked to block and run routes with equal aplomb. Colston Loveland, on the other hand, will be used as a “move” tight end, though, I’m sure head coach Ben Johnson will deploy him in a variety of alignments.

 

Saying that a move tight end is starting ahead of a Y tight end isn’t meaningful. It could indicate the full gamut of fantasy-friendly to fantasy-unfriendly situations. If we’re in “rookie Mark Andrews is starting in front of Hayden Hurst” territory, then we’re cooking with gas. If it’s a Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox situation, then it’s an enormous pain in the ass. 

 

Loveland and Kmet will take the field in different situations and personnel packages, both together and alone. Running away with the news that Kmet was working with the twos requires us to pretend that Loveland and Kmet are competing for the same role in the offense, which is not how the Bears are operating this year. 

 

Additionally, Ben Johnson has been gushing about Kmet every chance he’s gotten. We can’t trust that completely, but he’s also going out of his way to say wildly positive things about him. When asked about Kmet, Johnson has called him a “unicorn” and gushed about his ability to win mismatches against safeties and linebackers. 

 

 

In a different press conference, Johnson even mentioned Kmet, along with D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze, as the players in his pass-catching corps whom he trusts to be in the right position on the field. Coaches do sometimes lie to us, but it would be much easier for Johnson to damn with faint praise than it would be to laud Kmet as much as he has. 

 

Finally, some have speculated that Kmet will be cut next offseason, but I simply don't believe that. Kmet is on an extremely team-friendly deal, making barely more than pure blocking tight ends such as Josh Oliver. Ben Johnson genuinely values what Kmet brings to the offense and how he complements Loveland, and he isn’t waiting around for his best chance to cut him.

 

Fantasy owners are wishcasting a non-existent dynamic in which Ben Johnson thinks of Cole Kmet as a relic of the previous regime and as deadweight. In truth, Johnson is really excited about pairing Loveland’s skillset with Kmet’s. 

 

Why I Am Getting More Bullish

On Colston Loveland

 

I mentioned previously that having two tight ends on the roster who fit neatly into separate roles can easily become either a fantasy nightmare or a fantasy non-issue. While I don’t think we can bury Kmet, I am becoming more and more convinced that Loveland controls his own destiny in terms of snaps and opportunity. 

 

Firstly, Loveland might already be the best zone-beater on the Bears roster. Back when I scouted him, I mentioned that I really liked Loveland's fundamentals against zone. The more I think about the crowded corps of Bears pass-catchers, the more I realize there is nobody who stands out as a zone-beater, and Loveland could come right in and be the Bears’ best option against zone coverage. 

 

His main competition in the slot, Luther Burden III, was extremely unreliable on film against zone and showed lacking attention to detail. His movement ability makes him an asset against man coverage, but I am much, much more bullish on Loveland's ability against zone coverage than I am Burden's. 

 

Building on this point, the Bears pass-catching unit is an ambiguous position group that, while very crowded, gets a totally clean slate. Loveland controls his own destiny as far as emerging as a top-two option on this team, in which case he’s heading for a massive snap share regardless of whatever Ben Johnson also wants to do with Cole Kmet’s deployment. 

 

The drumbeat through camp has been very consistent in terms of how excited the Bears are to have Loveland, and by naming him a co-starter with Kmet in their first unofficial depth chart, they’re breaking with convention in a big way just to tell us how much they value both of these players. 

 

 

Verdict: We can’t bury Kmet, but Loveland has all the runway he needs anyways

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tank Bigsby is the Clear Starter

 

The Jaguars drumbeat out of training camp has been very consistent in reporting that Tank Bigsby is working as the starter, Travis Etienne is getting work in two-minute drills, and Bhayshul Tuten is flashing but working as a clear third.

 

Under new head coach Liam Coen, who formerly masterminded an extremely productive offense in Tampa Bay, solving this ambiguous backfield could potentially yield a league-winner. So how much should we really care about each piece of running back news in this committee?

 

I buy that Tank Bigsby is nominally the starter. Out of the three backs in this group, Bigsby is easily the most physical runner and profiles the best as a rusher between the tackles. 

 

By yards after contact and avoided tackles, Bigsby was actually one of the most efficient pure rushers in the entire league last year. With a front office that has nothing invested in Travis Etienne, it’s very possible they’ve come to the conclusion that Bigsby is their best option on early downs.

 

 

 

Credit for the chart above is a tweet  from Ian Hartitz.

 

However, similarly to how I broke down Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland, being the ostensible starter isn’t as important as having realistic expectations for how the members of this position group complement each other.

 

Bigsby is notoriously bad in the passing game, catching only eight balls in his entire career, and causing turnovers on his targets to boot. While being the early down rusher makes you the “starter”, we have to understand that Bigsby’s value starts and ends with his rushing yardage and whatever goal line usage he gets. 

 

Overall, we can only care a little about an early-down rusher on a team that we expect to be in bad game scripts and that has one of the worst offensive lines in the league. There is one path that leaves open the possibility of Tank Bigsby truly mattering for fantasy, which is the Liam Coen offense smashing and Bigsby hogging goal line opportunities. 

 

While he's definitely a hold if you own him already, I wouldn't make buying Bigsby too high a priority. I wouldn’t offer more than a re-roll or weak stash type of player and a third rounder. If possible, you do want exposure to the possibility of owning an efficient rusher in a Liam Coen offense. But, even if you nail his evaluation as the primary early-down rusher, your reward is a game-script dependent player who contributes nothing in the passing game. 

 

 

As far as Etienne and Tuten, I consider the Bigsby hype to be particularly bad for Etienne. So far in his career, Etienne has relied on accumulating high touch totals to return value. Those days are over now that there is a better pure rusher on the roster and a more explosive back who threatens to siphon off screens and outside runs, and that’s even assuming Tuten never overtakes Etienne. 

 

Etienne does figure to be the primary receiving back, but that gives him a tough needle to thread for fantasy, as it means that he cannot afford to lose any targets to Bhayshul Tuten. While I won't buy Etienne, current Etienne owners should throw their hands up and hold him until the Coen backfield shakes out during the season. There is so much variance in this backfield that having any piece of it is better than not.

 

For Tuten, I don’t think this news moves the needle. The expectation was never that a fourth-round rookie would dust this crowded backfield early in training camp. The vision for Tuten is that he rewards Coen for giving him designed touches, and parlays that performance into a strong share of high-value touches. 

 

Verdict: Nobody should sell Jags RBs until the season shakes out. If you’re gonna buy anybody, target Bigsby and Tuten. 

 

Las Vegas Raiders

Dont’e Thornton is Already a Starter

 

I 100% believe that Dont’e Thornton has already earned a starting-ish role on the Raiders, and I don’t think it will ever truly matter for fantasy. At 6’5” with 4.3 speed, Thornton fills a role that nobody else on the Raiders’ roster does, namely as a vertical X receiver who runs clear-out routes and does a lot of cardio.

 

However, a team's sacrificial X receiver is not a fantasy role we should care about. By running tons of go routes and eating press coverage, Thornton will open up space for the Raiders to operate underneath while being an occasional outlet for shot plays. Good luck guessing which weeks those shot plays will actually turn into touchdowns. 

 

On tape, Thornton is incredibly raw. Not only did he almost exclusively run go routes and curls at Tennessee, but his awareness on in-breaking routes left a ton to be desired. He never managed to keep himself clean and get to his landmarks on time, displaying a Roomba-like ability to bump into zone defenders. 

 

Rookies just do not go from incredibly raw route runners to being full service X receivers after two weeks of training camp. While Thornton could of course develop into that kind of player, he did not make that leap in walkthroughs while wearing shorts. The Raiders working him in as a starter has a lot more to do with his profile and the role he can play for them, and less to do with him being better at football than fellow rookie Jack Bech. 

 

 

I would be very willing to sell Thornton for any third rounder before he becomes a roster clogger. If all you can get is a fourth, you may as well hold him, because any time a player is at least getting on the field, they have a launching pad. 

 

As a brief aside, Tre Tucker is supposedly the clear WR2 on the Raiders right now. He’s a historically prolific target non-earner, and a career clogger. I would sell him for any draft pick.

 

Verdict: Sell Thornton for a third, hold for a fourth

 

Conclusion

 

When beat reporters and Twitter users describe a player as a “starter”, that simply does not contain enough information to be actionable for dynasty owners. Instead, we need a keen awareness of why players who nominally play the same position might not be competing for the same role, and we need an understanding of which roles are strategically useful for NFL teams without being useful for fantasy.

 

Back when I wrote about how to draft tight ends, I explained that NFL coaches love two-way tight ends who do not tip off the defense as to the offense’s intentions. So while the Loveland pick may have tanked Cole Kmet's fantasy value, he's not going anywhere in actual games. 

 

Similarly, in my article on wide receiver archetypes, I discussed how the non-elite X receivers in the league have a supporting role that matters for real NFL offenses but clogs dynasty rosters.

 

By understanding these nuances of NFL roster-building and offensive game-planning, we can react calmly and logically to the most hyperbolic part of the NFL offseason.