Welcome back to the best and worst values in dynasty startup drafts. While last week we were splitting hairs between the upper echelon of players, today we’re getting more subtle and finding seriously underrated, and overrated, players in dynasty startup drafts.
Round 6
Best Value
Emeka Egbuka - 6.02
Let me set the record straight, this selection is not based on the training camp hype train. As soon as in early May, I laid out the exact floor and ceiling case for Egbuka that makes him such a great value.
The sixth round is already a fair slot for him if we assume there is a waiting period before he eventually takes over as the Bucs’ WR1. In the meantime, you might get value from any of the following options:
Egbuka could simply return value being a target hog in three receiver sets. Chris Godwin could miss time or start slow, as there is still lots of uncertainty surrounding his injury. Either Evans or Godwin could simply miss time during the money weeks of your fantasy football seasons.
Egbuka is a good route runner and profiles well as an eventual flanker/slot hybrid, which I’ve written previously is an archetype we want to target in fantasy. He’s a quarterback’s best friend by getting to his landmarks crisply and in a timely manner, as well as by being tough and reliable hauling in tight window throws.
I would be willing to take Egbuka half a round earlier than this slot, essentially in a coin flip with Rome Odunze, and certainly in front of Worthy and the running backs immediately in front of him.
Worst Value
Zay Flowers
Fantasy football is a sport dominated by power law players, and Zay Flowers simply is not that. Finishing as WR34 in points per game during Lamar’s best ever passing season just isn’t gonna cut it.
We’ve reached a point where the perception of his talent and upside for fantasy is running ahead of reality. I would say the tacit agreement in the community is that Flowers hasn’t quite put it all together yet and also just plays in an offense that doesn’t feature any particular wide receiver.
In my opinion, that latter point is a chicken and egg situation. Flowers simply leaves too many plays on the field, and if he were “him” I believe we’d have no concerns whatsoever about Lamar’s ability to support a fantasy WR1.
I’ve written previously that we tend to perceive patterns on why certain situations will always limit a fantasy asset. Examples include “Lamar runs his passing offense through the tight end” and “Greg Roman doesn’t want to feature a running back”.
But these are often lagging indicators, not leading indicators. Special players break the mold, and Lamar Jackson will start supporting a high end fantasy receiver just as soon as one comes along who deserves to be featured that way.
As for Flowers, everything was there for him to break out in a big way. Despite the Ravens being run heavy, Lamar still threw for 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. For Flowers to become a player you’re confidently starting in your league playoffs, we can’t excuse him based on receiving volume available to his offense.
He’ll genuinely need to earn targets at a higher rate and earn more looks in the redzone, something I don’t personally see him doing, based on what he does (and doesn’t) do on a football field.
Round 7
Best Value
Chris Olave - 7.11
The reasons to be leery about Olave are well-known and valid. He’s in the depths of quarterback wilderness on a presumably awful Saints team, and he has missed a lot of time over his career. He hasn’t won anybody a league at any point in his career.
I just think with his talent, the downsides are fully priced in at this ADP and then some. By any measure, Olave’s actual on-field ability is at worst top-15. He’s still young and certified good at football.
At this range of ADP, your pick might bust because they suck, or because they fall off an age cliff, or because they crash out (looking at you, George Pickens). I’m willing to invest in Olave’s ability and hope that some combination of Kellen Moore, Tyler Shough, or a high draft pick next year give him the situation he’s needed.
I would gladly take Olave before Mike Evans, George Pickens, and D.J. Moore. I’d also likely be ambivalent between him and Matthew Golden / Jordan Addison.
Worst Value
D.J. Moore - 7.02
D.J. Moore is every bit as talented as some of the wide receivers I like in this range, but also even more risky and volatile with no age insulation and weird vibes surrounding his offseason.
While I’m very willing to just throw out the entire Bears 2024 season based on the Eberflus-Waldron clown show, Moore seems to be wearing out his welcome in Chicago at the exact time his contract insulation is running out.
If I’m going to take a 28 year old wide receiver, i.e. no age insulation, it would need to be for a much more stable player. I just don’t want to be making picks that require a bounceback season from somebody who will be radioactive in trade value if he disappoints.
Honorable Mention
George Pickens - 7.04
Pickens is absolutely set up for a career year in Dallas, an offense that notably has a real quarterback and that actually scores touchdowns. He’s a hand-in-glove fit with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
However, I don’t believe in Pickens the person whatsoever. He’s worn out his welcome both in Pittsburgh and all the way back during his college days in Georgia.
This is a player I sell when the vibes are good because I just know the pendulum is gonna swing the other way eventually.
Round 8
Best Value
Jaylen Waddle - 8.01
Waddle is a really good football player with elite upside whose dynasty value fell apart after the debacle of a season the Dolphins had. Both Waddle and Tyreek Hill regressed majorly, even with Tua Tagovailoa on the field.
While you can and should be concerned about this, at the end of the day Waddle has been a WR1 before, he’s a legitimately good football player, and you have a lot of outs once you draft him.
First off, he could simply surpass Tyreek Hill as the main beneficiary of Mike McDaniels’ heavy use of motion and play action. Hill clearly does not want to be there, and his mind just isn’t 100% on football right now. I’m also unwilling to believe both he and Waddle are suddenly bad at football, but there’s some chance with Hill at least we finally observed the age cliff.
Even if Waddle doesn’t pass Hill in the pecking order, you have a guaranteed out whenver Hill retires or, more likely, forces his way out. That could happen as soon as the 2025 trade deadline, at which point you can easily trade him if you aren’t contending or hold him if you are.
Worst Value
D’Andre Swift - 8.10
If I had a nickel for every time D’Andre Swift was mediocre in an offense that then got rid of him and immediately produced a league winner, I’d have two nickels. Which doesn’t sound like a lot but it’s weird that it’s happened twice.
Swift just checks zero boxes for me. He doesn’t have the kind of upside that really matters for fantasy, he isn’t real-life good at football, and he doesn’t have insulation. I’m sure you could argue that we should be excited for his role in the Ben Johnson offense, but we’ve just seen him be mid in the Eagles and Lions offenses already.
Round 9
Best Value
Tucker Kraft - 9.02
There is no doubt in my mind that Tucker Kraft is the next elite NFL tight end, at least in real life. It’s a bit of an open question how much volume there will be to go around in the Packers’ passing offense, but I simply must have him in my dynasty leagues regardless.
When discussing how to draft tight ends, I mention that blocking ability and run-after-catch ability are separators at the tight end position. The blocking because it ensures you don’t come off the field, and the run-after-catch because it differentiates tight ends from the compilers who put up 6-39 receiving lines.
Run-after-catch ability also incentivizes coaches to give tight ends deisgned targets, which is crucial since tight ends frequently struggle to purely out-target wide receivers downfield.
Kraft is one of the better blocking tight ends in the NFL, and arguably the best non-Kittle blocking tight end that actually matters for fantasy. He also put up an historically good season in terms of run after catch per reception. Yes, that will inevitably come down, but it encourages LaFleur to feature him more.
Efficiency leads to volume, even when the efficiency must regress. Kraft is a real-deal difference maker catching the football, and he has a runway to being a top two target in his passing offense.
Honorable Mention
Josh Downs - 9.09
When he’s on the field, Downs looks outstanding in terms of yards per route run and targets per route run. Unfortunately, he’s only played in three receiver sets to this point in his career, and is in a bit of a QB purgatory.
Long term though, Downs is the most efficient receiver on the Colts and the talent is more resilient than the situation.
Worst Value
Kyle Pitts - 9.05
Society has progressed past the need for Kyle Pitts in year of our lord 2025. If he was good at football, it would have happened for him last year. Or the year before that. Or the…you get the point.
Pitts’ coaching staff does not believe in him as a blocker, which means he gets taken off the field excessively. He even posted snap rates below 50% down the stretch last year.
Frankly, it’s abandon ship on Kyle Pitts, and I would take literally any asset for him just so he stops clogging my roster. Fortunately I have no Kyle Pitts shares so it’s not my problem.
The training camp hype train has potentially rehabilitated his trade value, but this is not a startable dynasty asset.
Round 10
Best Value
Jaxson Dart - 10.05
When I scouted Jaxson Dart, I actually didn’t love the tape. I think he drops his eyes and runs like hell too early in the progression, and he sometimes makes bad decisions moving off of reads that he should have thrown. I also think the arm talent lets him down when he needs to push a bucket throw outside the hashes, despite being sufficient elsewhere.
That being said, part of our job as dynasty owners is to embrace the gray area, and think about the upside case if our personal evaluation is wrong.
In Dart’s case, we’re talking about a quarterback with a high scramble rate and first round draft capital going in round 10 of Superflex startup drafts. You can afford to miss with 10th round picks in drafts, and in fact you should embrace the risk and shoot for upside cases that change the balance of the league.
If Dart has an even slightly encouraging rookie year, you’re gaining 3+ rounds of value instantly., If he’s genuinely good, you’ve probably built an elite roster. And this isn’t just throwing my hands up and saying “well I hope he’s good”. The fine-not-great rushing ability is something you can hang your hat on to give you a bit of an edge too.
It is not uncommon for the dynasty community to collectively turn up their noses at a pocket passer, and for that guy to rocket up in value. If you drafted Bo Nix instead of Calvin Ridley last year, and Bo Nix sucked, would you really be that devastated to have missed out on Ridley? We should be taking swings at quarterback.
Worst Value
Khalil Shakir - 10.06
Khalil Shakir is a good real-life player who happens not to move the needle for fantasy. If your goal in dynasty drafts was to take the best real-life player always, you’d consider Shakir here for sure.
But by this stage in drafts, our goal is to give ourselves swings at players who move the needle, and Khalil Shakir is instead the type of player to put up a WR38 season in points per game *while playing well with an elite quarterback*.
I have immense respect for Shakir as a football player but the juice isn’t worth the squeeze as a dynasty asset.
Conclusion
We’ve covered five more rounds today, and by now you’ve hopefully constructed your league’s next champ. If not, it’s a long draft and there are still more chances ahead to scoop up value.
While to this point the draft has been about choosing the most impactful of several good choices, next week we’ll be pivoting to findng out flawed players’ paths to dynasty usability and maybe even stardom.