Dynasty rookie draft season is in full swing, and post-draft ADPs are finally starting to settle down at their new normals. With each pick, dynasty owners will face difficult decisions weighing their personal prospect evaluations against NFL feedback, i.e. draft capital, and the consensus of dynasty drafters across the NFL. 

 

 

Each time we buck consensus, we’re taking a risk by getting out of line. However, picking our spots to do this sharply can sometimes be highly rewarding once draft season ends and games are played. 

 

With that in mind, here is one prospect in each round worth getting out of line for, and one prospect in each round that you should let your league mates draft ahead of you. Note: For ADPs, I’m using the composite draft position in FantasyCalc, filtered for 12-team, full PPR, Superflex leagues over the last weekend, i.e. May 1 through May 4. 

 

 

First Round

 

The ADPs in the first round are pretty in line with my final tiers, with Colston Loveland likely getting bumped into my suggested range when considering this ADP doesn’t filter for TE premium. That being said, I do have thoughts on two players for whom drafters are too frequently getting out of line.

 

Undervalued - Emeka Egbuka

 

While Egbuka’s 1.11 ADP isn’t egregious, he’s tumbling into the back of his tier too frequently. In many drafts, Egbuka owners are getting great value.

 

Egbuka is getting under-drafted because of a crowded wide receiver room, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin already being established targets there, and possibly a perceived lack of upside. While neither of these criticisms are 100% off-base, at the 1.11 we’re absolutely drafting Egbuka at his floor. 

 

 

Let’s start with Egbuka's ceiling case. First off, receivers drafted in the top 20 tend to find their way onto the field. While it’s not immediately obvious to us exactly what path or timeline Egbuka will take to receive significant targets, there are actually a lot of ways for him to get there. 

 

First off, he might become fantasy-startable just by playing in three-receiver sets. Last year, the Bucs were eighth in the NFL in 11-personnel usage, meaning they employ three wide receivers at a high frequency. While Jalen McMillan required a Chris Godwin injury in order to become usable in fantasy, Egbuka is more talented and feels more likely to earn targets on his own, particularly if Chris Godwin isn’t as effective post-injury.

 

Even if Egbuka can’t organically compete for significant targets, neither Godwin nor Mike Evans was exactly the picture of health last year. When they missed games, Jalen McMillan and Cade Otton became must-start fantasy assets. Egbuka not only would soak up those opportunities instead, but would most likely do more with them than these two players.

 

For his part, Chris Godwin might not even start the year healthy, with the Bucs' decision-makers saying they hope to have him available for week 1, which more often than not is what you say about a player destined to start the year on the PUP list. 

 

Finally, even if Egbuka isn’t startable in the short term, he’s the overwhelming favorite to become the top target in his offense at some point over the course of his rookie contract. This is dynasty after all, and teams frequently find ways to clear up opportunities for their young studs eventually, even in ways we didn't see coming. 

 

Let’s consider the floor case now. What if Egbuka truly languishes behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who largely remain healthy all year. Well his trade value is insulated. This is the magic of drafting Egbuka at his floor. Everybody in the dynasty community knows why Egbuka might not become startable immediately, and every year that passes with Godwin and Evans aging, Egbuka becomes more and more valuable to the rebuilders in your league.

 

If you’re a rebuilder warehousing Egbuka, you just stay the course. If you’re a contender, he will be a liquid asset that the rebuilders in your league would be more than willing to buy in exchange for players you desperately need in your lineup. To be clear, my preference is to keep Egbuka and reap the benefits whenever it's his turn to be the top target. 

 

The nature of drafting a prospect at his floor is that you can’t really lose here. You have outs, be they from Egbuka seeing the field surprisingly early, or eventually becoming the WR1 there, or just by being a liquid trade asset if you realize his timeline no longer matches what your roster requires.

 

Personally, my best guess is that Egbuka is more relevant than we expect by the back half of his rookie season. I’m just not convinced the Bucs can make this surprising BPA pick, ignoring loud needs, and not find a way to use their new weapon. 

 

 

I’ll save a paragraph at the end for the perception that Egbuka is a WR2-type with a lower ceiling. Slot receivers who feast against zone, stay on the field in two receiver sets, and catch everything have really high ceilings in PPR. We do ourselves a disservice every time we try to place a ceiling on players who are just #GoodAtFootball. If Egbuka turns out to be as good as we–and the Bucs–think, the ceiling will take care of itself. 

 

Overvalued - Kaleb Johnson

 

While Kaleb Johnson likewise has an ADP (1.09) that’s ~appropriate given his placement in my rookie tiers, drafters are too frequently drafting him in the top of that tier. The most overwhelming feedback I got from my tiers article was that it’s become nearly impossible to get Kaleb Johnson later than the 9th pick in rookie drafts. 

 

I get the upside case for Johnson. He’s going to walk right into a lead back role on a Pittsburgh team that wants to run the ball a lot. If he just gets the same opportunity as Najee Harris but is more efficient, we’re talking about a solid dynasty running back.

 

My problem is that when drafters start consistently taking Johnson in front of rookies with two more rounds of draft capital, and who also play more premium positions, we’re officially drafting him uncomfortably close to his ceiling.

 

I think Kaleb Johnson is very likely to get a similar number of carries as 2024 Najee Harris but with at least an extra half a yard per carry. But there are two problems getting lost in the big picture here. 

 

Firstly, the Steelers are very likely to use Jaylen Warren as the locked-in pass-catching back, which makes Kaleb Johnson dependent on his rushing production. Secondly, lead backs who are dependent on their rushing totals and who play in mediocre offenses are not fun to own in fantasy football. In redraft, these players get drafted in the “dead zone”. 

 

When you have a rushing-dependent running back, you become highly touchdown and game script dependent. On an offense that projects to be as mediocre as the Steelers’ does, that will not be rewarding week-to-week. It will be strategically difficult to make start-sit decisions with him and you’ll have some dud weeks thrown in. 

 

 

Don’t get me wrong, Johnson is likely to get 250+ carries and 1,000+ rushing yards. That type of player doesn’t grow on trees. But if we’re at a point where he’s leapfrogging quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends (in TE premium) with two rounds more draft capital, we’re officially drafting Johnson near his ceiling, and the median case for him is a much less insulated and premium asset than these other players. 

 

Second Round

 

Undervalued - Kyle Williams

 

With an ADP in the middle of the third round, Kyle Williams should instead be going in the mid-to-late second. Yes, on one hand wide receivers with third round draft capital have low hit rates. On the other hand, Kyle Williams is stepping into a massive opportunity and is a more complete player than most third-round wide receivers. 

 

Williams is an extremely capable deep threat who will occassionally have spike weeks by catching bombs from Drake Maye, who managed to make even Kayshon Boutte look like a home run hitter. 

 

But more importantly, Williams provides a floor as a capable player against zone coverage and a highly effective run-after-catch threat. Upon securing the ball, he transitions into a runner decisively and can really burn through a crease and make house calls. 

 

With ability, opportunity, and a chance to develop a connection with an ascending quarterback, Kyle Williams checks a lot of boxes as a future riser at the wide receiver position. He should be going soon after Jack Bech. 

 

 

Overvalued - Shedeur Sanders

 

Sanders still having a second round ADP feels rich. The NFL told us loud and clear that he’s not the prospect we, or he, thought he was. Sanders is extremely accurate, but has too much “see it, throw it” to his game, and lacks high end athleticism or arm talent. He also has bad habits in the pocket, such as backpedaling instead of resetting his feet against pressure. 

 

While Sanders is a second-round talent on a football field, he tumbled to day three due to his demeanor off the field. Reports related to Sanders lacking attention to detail and not owning up to mistakes during the interview process are bright red flags for the most cerebral position on the field.

 

There is too much of a needle to thread for Sanders to be a value in the second round of dynasty drafts. Sanders needs to roll into camp with a brand new mindset and not only beat out three players who are more NFL-ready, but also play well enough to avoid getting replaced when the Browns roll into the 2026 offseason staring down a better quarterback class with two first round picks. 

 

Yes, the upside for essentially any quarterback is high in Superflex. But day three quarterbacks have consistently been some of the worst bets you can make in dynasty, and the key point here is that the extenuating circumstances that made Shedeur tumble into day three are legit reasons to be skittish about him for fantasy too.

 

This isn’t a discounted first round prospect. I wouldn’t be taking Sanders until the late third. We’re talking about a quarterback with not much rushing value for fantasy and no draft capital, meaning no leash from his coaching staff whatsoever.

 

Third Round

 

Undervalued - Jarquez Hunter

 

Jarquez Hunter is going around late day three running backs, as well as day three QBs who are nearly guaranteed to be roster cloggers. With allegedly a mid fourth round ADP, he should be going in the early third. 

 

 

Jarquez Hunter has legit tape, with a physical running style to go with fluidity and explosion. He’s the most explosive running back on the Rams roster right now, and may have some serious contingent upside if Kyren Williams misses time. 

 

I’m surprised more people aren’t talking about how inefficient Kyren Williams was last year, and while by all accounts Sean McVay still loves him, McVay has been known to move running backs in and out of his circle of trust without warning. 

 

Hunter is one of those prospects who on paper has an obstructed path to playing time, but the competition in front of him might turn out to be illusory if he can outplay them. The upside of this pick is massive, as McVay's running backs turn into league winners with startling frequency. 

 

Hunter has a similar value proposition to Blake Corum last year, i.e. massive contingent upside with an outside chance of straight up outcompeting his way up the depth chart. But he’s going way, way more cheaply than Corum ever did. 

 

Overvalued - Elic Ayomanor

 

It’s understandable to be intrigued by Ayomanor. After all, he has a wide open path to playing time, really competing only against mediocre veterans and other rookies. But I’m way too down on Ayomanor’s upside case, as well as his hands, to draft him even in the back of the third round. 

 

Ayomanor is a classic “sacrificial X” receiver, to borrow Matt Harmon’s term. He’s somebody who does a lot of dirty work but is not expected to earn a target share that can sustain fantasy production. I don’t like his acceleration out of his breaks, and I don’t think he moves very dynamically in his routes. 

 

The cherry on top is that Ayomanor’s hands are not reliable at all. He's really just likely to clog rosters as long as he sees the field, but I don’t believe in him to become a fantasy starter.

 

 

Fourth Round 

 

Undervalued - Brashard Smith

 

While the seventh round draft capital isn’t good, Smith is an explosive receiving option on one of the few teams in the NFL, namely the Chiefs, who can get startable fantasy production out of a pure receiving back. He’s also walking into a wide open room with illusory competition, and on a Chiefs team that has given playing time to a seventh round player, Isaiah Pacheco, in the past. 

 

While I don’t think Smith will dust Pacheco for early-down rushing duties, all he has to do is dominate the receiving work and siphon a few high-value carries due to his explosiveness and speed. Smith’s path to a 1B role in a “thunder and lightning” backfield is actually a sustainable fantasy role. And if he’s any good at all, he’ll have no trouble taking that from Kareem Hunt. 

 

That’s why I use the term “illusory competition”. If Smith goes to camp and sucks, he won’t get playing time and we’ll say he’s buried behind Pacheco and Hunt. But, if he gets to camp and impresses, he won’t find any real barriers to his playing time. He controls his own destiny. 

 

With his receiving ability and speed, Brashard Smith can absolutely return value as the next Tyrone Tracy. Except he’s going at a deep discount. Is he likely to become a fantasy asset? Statistically, no. But he’s a higher value dart throw than your typical 4.12.

 

Conclusion

 

Now that fantasy drafts are in full swing and we finally have ADP’s that reflect the post-draft fantasy landscape, a couple major mispricings have arisen that sharp dynasty owners will exploit. 

 

 

While the draft will always be a high-variance event where it feels like we’re throwing darts, owners can incrementally gain edges by making sharp decisions at the margins. By scooping up these underdrafted players, and by not over-extending ourselves to snap up the commonly overdrafted ones, we can beat our league mates on the margins and work our way up to sustainable success.