What is the best spot to draft from in your fantasy football draft? As simple as the question is, the answer isn’t quite as easy. Many things factor into the answer, and before I reveal MY answer, let’s talk about what you should consider when answering this question for yourself.
Important Considerations
Average draft position (ADP) is the primary element that drives this answer. Knowing where players are likely to be taken gives you an idea of who might be available for you in different areas of your draft. Some sites like Fantasy Football Calculator and FantasyMojo provide draft board formats that make this visually much easier than reading down a list of player ADPs.
League format and league size influence the ADP you should be looking at. Point per reception (PPR), half-PPR, tight end premium (TEP), and super-flex formats will all have varying ADP. The number of teams in your league, such as 10 teams versus 12-team leagues, impacts both ADP and optimal roster construction strategy. Using the wrong ADP to do your research can easily lead you astray on draft day.
If you’re drafting in a home league with friends or family you have drafted with for several years, knowing the tendencies and preferences of your league mates can give you an edge as well. Sometimes it’s these little details that can help you with difficult decisions while on the clock.
During your draft prep, you have likely come up with a do-not-draft list of players that you are avoiding at all costs. Likewise, you probably have a list of league winners you are targeting in all of your drafts. Better understanding where these players fall on the draft board can help you decide what draft spot is optimal to avoid your fades or not have to reach as much on your "flag plants".
If you are in a league where you get to choose your draft spot, then perhaps this article can guide you down the path to fantasy success. Unfortunately, most leagues decide draft order randomly or possibly through some crazy competition, resulting in public humiliation where the loser gets the last choice.
Regardless of how your draft spot is determined, my evaluation of the best draft spot in 12-team PPR formats should add value to your process. The team I am drafting will start one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, two flex spots, a kicker, and a defense with six bench spots, making this a 16-round draft.
During my explanation, I will show you how I read the draft board and discuss how I think strategically through making my selections.
Understand Your ADP
When accessing ADP on most websites, unless the website is league-specific, it will be an aggregation of ADPs across multiple websites using the same league format (PPR, for example). One of the most popular ADP aggregators is FantasyPros. Depending on what you want to look at, you can select several websites to include in the aggregate ADP.
FantasyPros provides this information in a list format that includes the aggregate ADP (rank), positional ADP (WR1, for example), and the specific ADP for the source(s) you have selected. It does not provide this information in a convenient draft board format, so with a little help from AI, we can create a draft board from the most recent FantasyPros ADP:
After getting the basic draft board from AI in a .csv file, I added some conditional formatting for positions. Wide receivers are yellow, running backs are green, tight ends are blue, quarterbacks are red, defense/special teams are orange, and kickers are white (no-fill). This part is extremely important when evaluating your draft board and determining the optimal spot to draft from.
Once you have this, you can break the board into sections rather than just specific spots, regardless of whether you are able to choose your draft spot or not. Since ADP is an “average”, that means there is a minimum spot and a maximum spot each player is drafted in, and their location on the board represents that average. Breaking it into sections gives you a general idea of the range they may go in.
I like to break my draft board up into quarters: picks one through three, four through six, seven through nine, and 10 through 12. By doing this visually, as I have done above, it allows me to see which parts of the board have the most position-concentrated areas throughout the draft.
This can help you visualize the board and give you some insight based on your preferred team build: Hero or Anchor-RB, Zero-RB, elite tight end, late round quarterback, et cetera. If you can select your draft spot, this method can help you choose which range of the draft you would be most likely to achieve your desired roster construction.
Obviously, nothing is guaranteed as the player you're targeting could be taken before your pick, but by viewing ADP using this draft board strategy, you can give yourself several options in each round of the draft and stay calm even when your first option is sniped right in front of you.
Best Draft Spot in 12-Team PPR Leagues
Given the draft board provided above, I will reveal my preferred draft spot based on positional values at ADP, my opinions on player value, and desired roster construction. I will touch on my favorite picks throughout the first 10 rounds of the draft and then list some later-round players I would target at each position, even if their ADP isn’t in that specific round. The later you get in drafts, the more fluid ADPs become anyway.
The Best Pick: 4
Based on this ADP, I really like the damage I can do in the fourth spot. It assures me one of my top four favorite choices, which likely will result in a Hero-RB or Anchor-RB build. I love the advantage a top-four running back can provide my team. As I move through my round-by-round preferences, I am assuming players with ADPs before my draft spot will not be available.
Round 1
Jahmyr Gibbs
(Running Back, Detroit Lions)
Gibbs has an unbelievable floor and an extremely high ceiling. He was the RB1 in total points and the RB2 in points per game (PPG) last year, and is being taken as RB3. If he is gone by my pick, that means Bijan Robinson (my RB1) or Saquon Barkley are available, which aren’t bad consolation prizes.
And if the first three managers go RB heavy and give me Ja’Marr Chase at pick four, they can just hand me the trophy as I exit the draft room…
Round 2
Drake London
(Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons)
London is being taken as the WR10, and I think he is one of the dark-horse candidates to be WR1 overall. The way Michael Penix Jr. targeted him last season suggests they already have a strong connection that should have only grown over the offseason. If London is gone, I don’t mind a pivot to Jonathan Taylor as my RB2, knowing I can find wide receivers I like later.
Round 3
Before I make my selection here, this is where I will point out why looking at your section of the board can help you decide how and where you may want to select certain positions throughout the draft. It is clear that my section of the draft likely removes elite-QB from my team build options unless I take Josh Allen in the second or Jayden Daniels in the third.
Since I don’t like their value there, I will probably pass on them. Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts likely will not reach my area coming back in the fourth, and Patrick Mahomes should be taken before my fifth-round pick.
After the fifth or sixth round, this is where I really need to keep an eye on my league’s draft board and what each manager around me still needs so I can properly assess my options and the likelihood of players making it to me.
Tee Higgins
(Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals)
Assuming I landed London, I love Higgins as a WR2. If I ended up with Taylor, I may not feel as good about Higgins as my WR1. Tyreek Hill’s myriad of issues and recent oblique injury would make me hesitant to rely on him as my WR1 if I were to end up with a two-running-back start, though he profiles more as a WR1 than Higgins, when healthy.
Honestly, this is my least favorite round in this section of the draft. My previous round selection really tests my convictions and willingness to go against my subjective player takes. Depending on when I am drafting and how Hill’s offseason progresses, I may find myself more comfortable drafting him here if that’s how things fall.
Round 4
Marvin Harrison Jr.
(Wide Receiver, Arizona Cardinals)
The upside that Harrison Jr. provides as a WR3 is intriguing if he were to fall the one pick it would take to get to my spot (still within my section of the board). He would be my preferred pick. If I wanted to stick to a wide receiver here, I may be inclined to pull up D.J. Moore as my WR3.
If I had a hunger for running back, or only had Gibbs by this point, I could be tempted by either Omarion Hampton or Chuba Hubbard as a very strong RB3 or solid RB2. Hampton is the upside pick, Hubbard is the safe floor pick.
Round 5
Rashee Rice
(Wide Receiver, Kansas City Chiefs)
My draft up through this point will dictate whether Rice is an optimal choice. If I have taken at least two wide receivers by round five that I feel good about, I am inclined to take the chance on Rice. He averaged over 16ppg last season before his injury. Rumors are that the Chiefs already have an idea of how long Rice will be suspended, in the range of four to six games.
Using a value over replacement (VOR) method of analysis, as I discussed in a previous article, you would find that the baseline level wide receiver in a league like this should average roughly 11ppg. Assuming Rice gets suspended six games, using this replacement level production, you could assume roughly 66 fantasy points if you had to use this player in Rice’s spot.
Once Rice returns, and we use his PPG average from last season, he would play 11 games the rest of the season after the Chiefs' week 10 bye, which would be good for roughly 176 fantasy points. Combine that with the 66 points from your fill-in player, and it gives you about 242 fantasy points.
This total would be good for WR15-16 based on Mike Clay’s current projections. He is being drafted as WR23. At this point in the draft, it is very difficult to get this type of value return. I think Rice has an opportunity to do even better this season than last. Additionally, I should be able to get better than replacement-level production from whoever I am using before Rice returns.
I spent a lot of time on the Rice selection because it could be a very pivotal choice in your drafts; a very risk-forward approach. Assuming that is not your style, I like DeVonta Smith as another wide receiver option being taken as WR23 (who has finished better than that in PPG each of the last three seasons). I also wouldn’t be afraid to pull up TreVeyon Henderson half a round if I am searching for an RB2 or RB3 at this point in the draft.
Round 6
This pick will likely be dictated by what you have done in the first five rounds. For those who want to balance out their roster, you may want to look for positional needs in this round. For those simply looking for value or the best player available, this pick means you may take some more chances. The later you get in drafts, the min/max ADP spreads get wider, meaning fantasy managers are more apt to “get their guys” going forward, ignoring ADP.
Isiah Pacheco
(Running Back, Kansas City Chiefs)
If I took Rice in the previous round, I may pivot away from Pacheco here, but I wouldn’t mind the selection either way. He looks healthy and more explosive during training camp so far. Depending on my build thus far, I am comfortable with him as my RB2 or RB3.
If I feel good about my wide receivers and running backs up through this point, I am a Mark Andrews truther, and I would bring him up five picks before his current ADP.
Otherwise, with a heavier running back approach through five rounds, I would love if George Pickens fell the one pick to my spot as a WR3 with upside to be a strong WR2.
Round 7
Evan Engram
(Tight End, Denver Broncos)
Assuming I didn’t bring up Andrews in the last round, this is my designated tight end spot, and I am going with Engram. I think his skill set is perfect for this Broncos offense, and he’ll probably be the second target earner behind Courtland Sutton.
I don’t love the running backs or wide receivers in this range. If Jaylen Waddle were to fall the one pick needed to get to my pick, I would definitely consider clicking him there, especially if I took Andrews previously. Jerry Jeudy could also return value here, though I might take a chance on a higher upside play with someone like Rome Odunze by taking him a few spots ahead of ADP.
One other option, if I am playing the odds and following my data, I could bring up Kyler Murray a few spots. Referring back to my article, the data suggests that the hit rate for a QB1 that finishes inside the top-six at the position drops off after round seven. If you are looking for a QB1 that finishes inside the top half of the tier, and you believe in Murray (I’m on the fence), this is your chance.
Round 8
Brock Purdy
(Quarterback, San Francisco 49ers)
If I am fortunate enough to have Purdy drop the one pick necessary to get to my spot, he is my pick here. Purdy has his primary backfield weapon back in Christian McCaffrey, though I can't ignore the situations with Brandon Aiyuk or Jauan Jennings's calf injury/contract negotiatons. However, Purdy was seventh in PPG in 2023, a mark I think he can hit again this year. He has sneaky rushing upside, too, rushing for 323 yards and five touchdowns last year.
As my targeted quarterback round, if Purdy doesn’t make it to me, I am perfectly fine grabbing Dak Prescott ahead of ADP. Though I think his rushing upside has gone away with his recent injuries, his passing volume and upgraded WR2 in Pickens make him one of the few pocket-passers I am willing to bet on.
Don’t like the quarterback options here? One strategy would be to trust the ADP that Prescott would come back to you in round nine, and I would bring up Ricky Pearsall eight picks ahead of ADP. At WR45, I think he could easily be a top-24 wide receiver this year, presenting tremendous value.
Round 9
Ricky Pearsall
(Wide Receiver, San Francisco 49ers)
Yes, I know, I just suggested you should take Pearsall in the last round if you were feeling spicy. Sometimes the board works in your favor, and you get your target at quarterback in round 8, or a player from earlier in the previous round falls to you who wasn’t supposed to. We love when that happens, and I also love the value of Pearsall in round nine.
Another option here is Javonte Williams. I included Williams in my article from June about the best values based on ADP and their projected points over expectation. His ADP still lives in the ninth round, and recent news suggests he is receiving the most reps with the first team offense. You could do a lot worse than Williams in this range of your drafts.
Pearsall and Jennings are the only two wide receivers with ninth-round ADPs. You see one kicker, one defense, three running backs, three quarterbacks, and two tight ends come off the board as well. If I haven’t taken my tight end yet, I could find myself drafting either Tyler Warren or Tucker Kraft.
The way Warren was used in his first preseason game was very encouraging, though it is hard to say if this will carry over to the regular season when all of the available weapons are on the field together. The Kraft hype this offseason is similar to his teammate Dontayvion Wicks’s last year, so I am not sure how much I am buying in quite yet.
Round 10
Emeka Egbuka
(Wide Receiver, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
No drumbeat has been stronger this offseason than Egbuka’s. Every player and coach in Tampa Bay says that Egbuka is ready to go. He can run every route, has picked up the playbook quickly, and has stood out in camp. As the players are coming off the board, I am praying that Egbuka falls the one pick to make it to my spot here in the 10th round.
With Chris Godwin’s status up in the air and Mike Evans entering his age-32 season, the upside is there for Egbuka to step in from day one and produce. As WR47 off the board, I view him as more of a WR3 with upside, given the early opportunity he has in front of him.
If I miss out on Egbuka, Zach Charbonnet is an option at running back. With Kenneth Walker III “sticking to the plan” while managing his offseason foot injury, not all plans always work out, and Charbonnet could step into the lead role if Walker is eased into the lineup to begin the season.
Lastly, Michael Pittman Jr. presents a nice backup option at wide receiver. That does mean I am passing up on Josh Downs as he is taken several picks ahead of Pittman Jr. Though I like Downs, I think when Pittman Jr. is healthy, he will command more targets and return value at his WR51 price tag.
Later Rounds 11-16
So we got you through the hardest part of your draft from the fourth spot. I gave you a roadmap with some options to take detours if desired. You have likely filled all of your main roster spots, including flex positions, with only kicker and defense left to round out your starting lineup.
For the final six rounds of the draft, I will give you my favorite targets at each position that are at or after ADP based on our draft spot. While I don’t advise taking a defense or kicker early, that may be your cup of tea.
The best defenses from one year aren’t necessarily the best ones the following year, but there are several strong cases for some to be top-eight options once again this year. Kickers are also somewhat unpredictable, but again, we can take a stab at who we think should be pretty reliable. I will give my preferences for the top several defenses and kickers separately at the end.
Round 11
Running Back: None with ADP in round 11, though I could be talked into bringing up Austin Ekeler (Washington Commanders) from round 12
Wide Receiver: Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts)
Tight End: Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills)
Quarterback: Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)
Round 12
Running Back: Tank Bigsby (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Wide Receiver: Jayden Higgins (Houston Texans)
Tight End: Zach Ertz (Washington Commanders)
Quarterback: Drake Maye (New England Patriots)
Round 13
Running Back: Nick Chubb (Houston Texans)
Wide Receiver: Marvin Mims Jr. (Denver Broncos)
Tight End: Hunter Henry (New England Patriots)
Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Round 14
Running Back: Ray Davis (Buffalo Bills)
Wide Receiver: Luther Burden III (Chicago Bears)
Tight End: Isaiah Likely (Baltimore Ravens)
Quarterback: Cam Ward (Tennessee Titans)
Round 15
Running Back: Braelon Allen (New York Jets)
Wide Receiver: Christian Kirk (Houston Texans)
Tight End: Brenton Strange (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Quarterback: Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta Falcons)
Round 16
Running Back: Roschon Johnson (Chicago Bears)
Wide Receiver: DeMario Douglas (New England Patriots)
Tight End: Chigoziem Okonkwo (Tennessee Titans)
Quarterback: Anthony Richardson Sr. (Indianapolis Colts)
Defenses
Denver Broncos
Philadelphia Eagles
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Minnesota Vikings
Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans
Buffalo Bills
Kickers
Brandon Aubrey (Dallas Cowboys)
Cameron Dicker (Los Angeles Chargers)
Will Lutz (Denver Broncos)
Ka’imi Fairbairn (Houston Texans)
Jake Bates (Detroit Lions)
Evan McPherson (Cincinnati Bengals)
Chase McLaughlin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Harrison Butker (Kansas City Chiefs)