Welcome back to the Get Better at Drafting series. While last week we developed a more nuanced understanding of what constitutes “ability” at the wide receiver position, today we’ll discuss the most important aspects of a wide receiver’s role.
Too often, the dynasty community lumps players into whether they profile as a WR1 or a WR2, without getting more nuanced than that. Granted in rare circumstances that categorization is meaningful and directly tied to fantasy value, notably in the cases of Jordan Addison, Devonta Smith, and Tee Higgins, who are behind the best of the best in the pecking order.
However, I argue that instead we should be categorizing receivers into archetypes. Broadly speaking, there are three receiver archetypes that dynasty owners want to invest in, and four that they should avoid. Any player who performs in one of the valuable archetypes is only limited by their talent level, and can be a WR1 if they turn out to just be really good at football.
When drafting, we should be more concerned about whether a player has a path to filling a valuable archetype, without getting too caught up about whether that player is a WR1, WR2, etc.
Avoidable Archetypes
Strategic, Non-Productive Roles
In my tight ends article, I laid out how NFL coaches rely on tight ends to fulfill certain strategic goals for their offense that don’t matter for fantasy football. Consequently, coaches might deploy their tight ends in ways that are not helpful for fantasy, without any sense of urgency to modify their roles to help out dynasty owners.
This also happens at the wide receiver position, and these are the roles we want to avoid. In particular, those roles are deep threats and sacrificial X receivers (credit to Matt Harmon for the terminology). In both cases, these players will get draft capital that is not proportional to their utility for fantasy football, because their coaches care about achieving a strategic goal that does not show up on the stat sheet.
Sacrificial X Receivers
In the case of the X receiver, there are a few forces at play here. First, the X receiver role asks the most out of players to execute tasks other than catching the ball, which means a coach will be willing to live with a target non-earner in this role if he does a good job blocking, running clear out routes, and being an outlet late in the progression.
Secondly, X receivers line up on the line of scrimmage, so they can’t be helped schematically to get them off press coverage or to get them in motion. This causes a synergistic effect where coaches are willing to line up less dynamic pass catchers in this spot, and these players also then have to eat press coverage without help, tanking their production even more.
Dynamic X receivers who are legitimate press coverage beaters and who run routes to all three levels are rare assets we want to invest in, but most players who get drafted to play the X receiver role should be faded.
Personally, I tend to determine if somebody can be a successful fantasy asset at the X during film study, which means it's subjective. There isn't really a way around that, at least not in my case. Others might have other methods.
This year, I think Tetairoa McMillan and Travis Hunter deserve the hype and you should not be afraid of them even if they play primarily X receiver this year.
Jayden Higgins is a prospect I was incredibly worried would get pigeonholed into the X, but he dodged a bullet going to the Texans, where one of the aforementioned rare dynamic X receivers already resides.
Tre Harris for me is a coin flip, but I think he shows enough potential that you shouldn’t be scared off of him even if he ends up playing a lot of X. He might just be dynamic enough to produce through it. My real hope is that the Chargers just stick Quentin Johnston there and tell him that if he wants to be on the team he better block his ass off.
I will personally have zero shares of Elic Ayomanor, even as a late dart throw, as I think he’s a classic sacrificial X who will have a long NFL career clogging dynasty rosters.
Deep Threats
Deep threats are players who don’t bring much intermediate route nuance to the table, but whom coaches value because they stretch the field vertically and create space underneath for the rest of the offense to operate. Like with the sacrificial X receivers, this provides a strategic benefit that fantasy owners can’t count on for fantasy scoring.
Deep threats / shot play players are uniquely likely to clog rosters because they’re good for a couple spike weeks whenever the occasional big play connects, but they don’t have a target floor we can hang our hats on in dynasty.
Dont’e Thornton is a popular sleeper this season, but I won’t have any shares of him. On the Dynasty Pulse expert consensus rankings, Thornton has an ADP WR19. When watching the tape, I don’t see a future complete route runner, just a burner who can be strategically valuable to the Raiders but not to dynasty owners.
I will also have no shares of Isaiah Bond, even assuming he gets out of legal trouble and joins an NFL team.
Finally, I am somewhat fading Matthew Golden, to the point I will not have many shares of him, because I’m worried the Packers are a little too excited about his 40 time. Don’t get me wrong, Golden is a legit route runner, but I’m worried the Packers will have Golden lead the team in go routes in order to stretch defenses vertically. He might be doing a lot of cardio achieving goals that strategically help Matt LaFleur but that don’t help me as a dynasty owner, even if that’s not the best use of his talents from a dynasty perspective.
If you want to buy in on Golden as a talent, go right ahead with my blessing. This is more of a gut feeling on my end on how the Packers want to use him than an ironclad view on who Golden will be as a player.
Part Time Roles
Run-After-Catch or Gadget Specialists
Talented, creative run-after-catch players who didn’t run a real route tree in college, or who relied on catching the ball in the backfield, almost always get overdrafted to the NFL, and dynasty owners sometimes overdraft these players too.
While this year my sense is that we’re correctly not excited about Savion Williams as a dynasty asset, in the past dynasty owners have been burned by Rondale Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Malachi Corley. This year, I won’t have any Savion Williams shares.
Slot-Only Players
It is incredibly hard to be a reliable dynasty asset if you come off the field in two-receiver sets. Very few teams play enough 11-personnel to support a reliable fantasy asset who never plays in other groupings.
To be clear, there is a very big difference between slot-majority players, such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, and slot-only players. St Brown stays on the field even in two-receiver sets, and is absolutely a superstar.
On the other hand Jayden Reed is an example of one of the most efficient, explosive slot-only players, and by rarely cracking a 70% snap share over the course of the season, he wasn’t a trustworthy start down the stretch. Now consider the vast majority of slot-only players are less dynamic than him.
Generally, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze with slot-only prospects. While this draft class is light on classic slot-only guys, I’m on the fence about whether to spend my FAAB on Xavier Restrepo, and I definitely won’t be targeting Tez Johnson and Jaylin Lane off waivers.
Don’t get me wrong, really good slot-only players aren’t useless, and you can feel free to acquire them as long as you manage your expectations. But when you’re drafting them, you’re giving yourself extremely little margin for error, since they’re capped from joining the elite tier of dynasty assets. The player essentially needs to be really, really good at football just for you to have a mid-to-low WR2 type.
High-Value Archetypes
Dynamic X Receivers
Unlilke the sacrificial X receivers mentioned earlier, dynamic X receivers are an extremely scarce yet valuable wide receiver archetype, but most seasons this type of player is very hard to find. On tape, I look for a few skills to identify these players.
First, this player has to be able to get to landmarks on time through contact. While the ideal is that the player uses great movement and hand usage to release cleanly against press, that is rarely a polished trait in college wide receivers. On the other hand, getting into the route through contact is non-negotiable and speaks to the player's physicality, mentality, and reliability.
Travis Hunter is an excellent example of a prospect who plays through contact, even if his release wasn't totally clean, and gets into his route on time.
Second, this type of player needs to create plays at the catch point. As I mentioned in my first wide receivers article in this series, there is a difference between having hands that are reliable catching the routine passes and players who make plays for their quarterback. To be a difference-making X receiver, you need to be able to do the latter.
Jayden Higgins really struggled here, despite having reliable hands underneath, which is why I’m glad he’s going to be more of a possession receiver on the Texans. Travis Hunter on the other hand was also great at this skill. Did I mention he was my WR1 in this class?
Finally, I need to see prospects win on breaking routes. For example, Tetairoa McMillan is outstanding on digs, comebacks, out routes, and whip routes, despite getting a bit of an unfair reputation for being a low-separation type of player. While he's not the most agile player, he sinks his hips really well and is extremely deceptive at the top of his steam.
On the other hand, Keon Coleman and Xavier Legette are good examples of players who didn't separate on breaking routes when lined up at the X in their college tape. Both of them will need their roles to expand this year to be fantasy relevant.
In Legette’s case in particular, he was much more effective on runway routes underneath with the Panthers early on, but they didn’t stick to it over the rest of the season. He struggled mightily when moved to the X mid-season. The hope is that with Tetairoa McMillan coming in to play the X, Legette can get back on track this season.
One sleeper I think can fit this category is Tory Horton. He’s likely to play the X, as the Seahawks are otherwise trying to build the whole plane out of slot receivers, but he’s not the type of receiver I think is maxed out as a sacrificial X. He absolutely shows flashes of beating press coverage on film, and wins at all three levels.
Don’t get me wrong, the hit rate for 5th round receivers is abysmal; I’m not saying Horton is some priority steal. But he has the tools to be a dynamic X receiver if he turns out to be more talented than we expected. I’d take him before an Ayomanor type, who I think will have a long career as a better NFL player than fantasy player.
Pat Bryant could profile to the X, but I think he might actually move around a fair bit in a room full of players with larger frames. He is a bit of a usage-dependent coin flip here. If he’s asked to run a vertical route tree, he won’t be a fantasy asset. But there is a scenario where Sean Payton asks him to be a reliable underneath and intermediate target, since he has already directly compared Pat Bryant to Michael Thomas. Bryant is worth rostering until the role becomes clear.
Flanker-Slot Hybrids
Not only is this archetype fantasy gold, but it’s more readily apparent pre-draft than the dynamic X receiver. While trying to identify a target-earning X receiver requires nailing a film evaluation, identifying a flanker-slot hybrid is more about judging the team situation correctly.
To find a flanker-slot, you need one of the following two cases. First, you could draft a slot-first receiver who has the size and athleticism to play outside, and this player needs to land on a team without an established flanker (or Z receiver). Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rashee Rice are two excellent examples of players who found themselves in this situation.
Secondly, you could look for a player who profiles as a flanker to land on a team with room for slot reps. Ladd McConkey is an outstanding example of this. In a previous pre-draft article, I already did the work for you identifying which teams had favorable landing spots for flanker-slot players.
I’ve spent a lot of time explaining why I’m fading Luther Burden in past articles. One reason to be excited about him is that there is smoke that D.J. Moore is not long for the Bears roster, in which case Burden would profile extremely well to a flanker-slot hybrid role. If, and this is a big if, he earns that role, there is no limit to his fantasy ceiling.
I also like Emeka Egbuka’s long term projection to being a flanker-slot player, as he’s clearly the odds-on favorite to eventually emerge as the WR1 for the Bucs, granted some patience is required.
I’m slightly downgrading Jaylin Noel and Jalen Royals, since their ideal roles would be in this archetype, but they’ve been drafted to teams with players who also show great inside-outside versatility. Albeit in Noel’s case, I’m talking about Jayden Higgins, and Noel could just outcompete a fellow rookie.
Kyle Williams will most likely be an outside receiver to start his career, but I’m leaving the door open for him to turn out to be much more dynamic than Demario Douglas and earns slot looks later in his career.
Big Slot Receivers
Most readers probably rolled their eyes at this header, and I get it. So many mediocre receivers get the “would be better as a power slot” treatment from draft evaluators. But stay with me and I can explain how to use this profile to your advantage.
Those times that an outside receiver does transition into a power slot successfully, the results for fantasy football are undeniable, so we need to mix our healthy skepticism with an understanding of how and why this role comes about. Power slots balance the advantages of being deployed in the slot with outside usage in two-receiver sets, which makes them extremely desirable fantasy assets. But how do we predict if somebody will become a power slot?
First off, similar to the flanker-slot hybrid type, there need to be slot snaps available for a player. Additionally, you need to avoid the landmine of a coach choosing the strategic benefit of deploying a player as a sacrificial X receiver over scheming up counting stats for them.
Luckily, in many cases coaches will tell you to your face if they envision a receiver to be their X. The Bills did it with Keon Coleman, and he was a fade from that point on. If you are a Coleman owner, there is always a chance they expand his game in year two, but the power slot path to upside is gone.
Next, there is in fact a skillset that profiles well to a power slot role, beyond just being a nice way to say somebody doesn’t get open outside. The typical power slot player is explosive and capable of making rapid movements in short areas, but lacks the speed to consolidate an advantage on deep routes. This is distinct from a plodder, who isn’t interesting as a power slot either.
Additionally, these types of players don’t shy away from physicality and have reliable hands, particularly holding on through contact. They’re also effective against zone and bring some of the dirty work ability to the slot, where having a plus blocker is more impactful than it is along the boundary.
This year, I’m very excited about Jayden Higgins and Jack Bech as power slots. Higgins moves extremely well underneath and has reliable, but not playmaking, hands. Jack Bech runs crisp routes and gets open out of his breaks, but can’t consolidate advantages on longer concepts. Both players are walking into situations where there is breathing room for them to have inside-outside versatility.
One faller is Isaac TeSlaa, who could have been an outstanding power slot. However, he landed on a team with one of the absolute best slot receivers in the league, so he’s more of a project who needs to learn to play outside after playing the slot exclusively in college. I like the player, but the role means I won’t be looking to acquire him until next offseason at the earliest.
Conclusion
While aspects of wide receiver prospects’ situations such as quarterback attachment and target competition are widely discussed, the fantasy community can benefit from focusing their interpretation of situation through the lens of archetype.
Fair warning, while archetypes are useful guidelines that can narrow down prospect tiers, they are sometimes less helpful for veteran players who get on the field and earn targets. Some players break the mold, and that’s ok. Putting that warning aside, I regularly use archetypes to help narrow down my wide receiver targets on draft day.
By targeting flanker-slot hybrid types and dynamic X receivers, as well as picking your spots for power slot converts, you can help organize your approach to breaking down a wide receiver’s situation. By fading strategic, non-productive roles, as well as part-time roles, you can avoid players who might be real-life good, but who have really narrow paths to being good fantasy assets.
These archetypes are not a final judgement on a player. Instead, they help us think clearly about how much opportunity a player is walking into and whether their skillset is well-suited to take full advantage of this opportunity. By organizing your thoughts and keeping the big picture in mind, you can improve your hit rates in your dynasty rookie drafts.