Welcome back to the Get Better at Drafting series. While last week we finished up with the mental shortcuts that we as dynasty owners need to avoid, today we finish up the series by discussing the running back position.
The running back position is unique in that role and opportunity are crucially important, and this creates a tension between our evaluation of how good we think a prospect is with what kind of role they profile into.
While at wide receiver I’ve argued constantly that archetypes and ability matter more than roles, at running back we need an awareness of whether the juice is worth the squeeze when we make a draft selection.
The running back position is extremely sensitive to
1. Overall team’s offensive environment and quality
2. Share of the opportunities in that offense
3. How that share is distributed between high-value vs low-value touches
Overall Team Offensive Environment
While I’ve waxed poetic at length about why situation tends to take care of itself for good wide receivers, at running back we do need to be sensitive to situation. This is both because the overall quality of an offense can elevate mediocre running backs, and because bad offenses can mask good running backs.
The performance and efficiency of a running back depends much more on the performance of their teammates than for any other position. They need offensive lineman to block and quarterbacks to keep the safeties back and linebackers hesitating.
The quality of a running back still shows up in these situations, but it’s much more contingent on how cohesive and well-designed the rest of the offense is. Additionally, the running back position tends to be more sensitive to touchdown scoring than the wide receiver position, which is highly correlated to the quality of an offense.
Finally the running back position is extremely sensitive to game script, except for the most exceptional dual threat players, so your running back’s fantasy performance hinges a lot on his team not being down multiple scores in the second halves of games.
You should bump up your grades for running backs drafted to good offenses, especially after the first two rounds when we have a much murkier picture of who is good vs who is mediocre. For you to draft a running back on a bad offense, they need enough insulation to be reasonably likely to hang on to a major role until the offense turns the corner.
Share of Opportunities
Draft Capital
The major difference between downfield pass catchers and running backs is that running back touches tend to be designed (run plays, screen passes) while pass catchers need to earn targets. In a called run play or screen pass, the chances your running back gets a touch are essentially guaranteed. Meanwhile, in a called pass play your pass catchers need to execute at a high level just to earn a target, and then targets require quarterback quality to turn into a touch.
This is where draft capital comes in. Running backs with high draft capital, even inefficient ones, tend to get more designed touches, which means draft capital sets both a floor and ceiling for running back production.
There is also a psychological component to how coaches react to inefficiency at running back vs with pass catchers. In the NFL there is a widespread belief among coaches that there are positive externalities to simply calling a rushing play, even if it’s inefficient. This includes “opening up play action” and wearing down a defense with “body blows”.
Meanwhile for pass catchers, there are absolutely no perceived positive externalities for unsuccessful called pass plays. This implies coaches react extremely sensitively to passing inefficiency, but can tolerate mild inefficiency at running back for players with high levels of investment.
At running back, the official hierarchy of running backs on the roster is much more predictive of how opportunities are split up compared to wide receiver, where pure ability is more predictive, with some exceptions for being the first read in the progression and occasional designed touches.
Now, you’ll still draft worse than your league mates if you manage to draft bad players who have good draft capital, but draft capital affects your batting average at the running back position more than at others.
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Efficiency
The most important factor determining which running backs are NFL-good, efficiency encompasses both getting what’s blocked and also play creation.
Vision, lateral agility, decision-making, and speed tend to go into taking what’s blocked, while tackle-breaking and tackle-avoiding tend to go into creation ability. This is an extremely broad category because running backs can win in many different ways.
I’ll include an extremely quick and dirty cheat sheet in case anybody is curious how I see the “getting what’s there” and creation ability of the backs in this class.
After draft capital is baked in, demonstrated efficiency is the next most important factor for consolidating a higher market share of touches and for insulating value. Assuming a running back isn’t a bellcow, their efficiency will also help determine how much they consolidate the opportunity within their role and also how much opportunity they siphon opportunity outside of their archetype.
Shape of Opportunity
The “shape” of a running back’s opportunity is getting more and more important as committees suffuse the NFL and cap the overall share of opportunity that’s possible at the NFL level. Even as recently as 2019, nearly half of the running backs in the league received 80%+ of snaps at running back. Last year, that value cratered to five.
Given fewer and fewer running backs can get you a return on investment just by being a touch sponge, we need to worry more than ever about the types of opportunities being distributed efficiently for our running backs.
High Value Touches
Running back fantasy production is extremely sensitive to what kinds of touches the running back is receiving. On average, carries outside the red zone are much, much less valuable than goal line carries and targets. This creates an interesting tension where typically the best pass catchers are not goal line specialists, which is why I’m extremely interested in Cam Skattebo as somebody who could do both.
We should highly priortize running backs whose skillsets could feasibly handle both types of high value touches. Below is an extremely hand-wavy cheat sheet on how I view the stylistic and team fit of each drafted rookie running back. Refer to it as much or as little as you’d like.
Another nuance to add on here is that running backs who can run routes down field can be more efficient with their targets than pure checkdown players. Of this year’s crop, TreVeyon Henderson, R.J. Harvey, Cam Skattebo, and Jaydon Blue stand out as players who I thought legitimately won downfield, though I ding Skattebo for sharing a backfield with Tyrone Tracy.
Explosive Touches
Explosive touches are the exception to the argument that early down rushing is less valuable, and true breakaway speed is a valuable dimension to look for in a running back room. While it’s not a prerequisite to being a good running back, running backs who can legitimately make house calls from all over the field carry unique spike week upside.
While run vs pass usage depends heavily on coaching decisions, explosive touches are much more dependent on the players on the field. For this reason, it requires explosiveness and speed, but also just enough touches to increase your “luck surface area”.
Out of this crop, I like Bhayshul Tuten and TreVeyon Henderson for this dynamic. They’re both highly explosive open field runners who project to get the ball enough that they’ll have chances to break a big one.
Jaydon Blue also makes an argument for being included among these players, but in the NFL I’m not so sure he gets enough carries to actually hit paydirt for you. An explosive running back needs some leash to hit on a big play, since this is still an infrequent event.
Game Script Dependence
A running back’s week-to-week consistency depends a lot on game-script dependence. This primarily shows up in running backs who are not pass catchers, particularly on bad teams. In these cases, teams tend to abandon the run. In redraft, owners tend to be extremely aware of game script dependence, but it’s often ignored in dynasty drafts.
One lesser known example of game script dependence is running backs who are bad pass blockers. These players tend to also come off the field in two and four minute drills. In this year’s class, R.J. Harvey may come off the field surprisingly frequently in obvious pass situations because J.K. Dobbins is a more accomplished pass blocker. Jaydon Blue is another such player, since Javonte Wiliams is an experienced pass blocker, and Blue might have trouble holding up in blitz pickup.
Kaleb Johnson is a more classic example of a game script dependent running back, since Jaylen Warren has a stranglehold on the pass catching role.
Conclusion
With true bellcows becoming a dying breed at the NFL level, we should be extremely interested in players who might turn into one. Typically, you just follow first-round draft capital for this type of player, and first round running backs are extremely rare but prized assets.
Beyond that point though, we need to start caring heavily about the contextual factors that matter immensely for running back production. The running back position is so sensitive to offensive quality and the profile of opportunities received that past the first couple rounds, our ability to tell who is good and who isn’t might not even matter next to the contextual factors.
To act on this advice, our rankings should be extremely sensitive to draft capital and to the type of usage a running back profiles well to. We should be prioritizing running backs in good offenses who project to dominate at least one dimension of high value touches, and preferably who have paths to the other.
While at wide receiver you have my blessing to ignore draft capital and competition concerns if you think a player is simply good at the sport, at running back you need to be prepared to pass on your personal favorites if they profile more as two-down rushers and especially if they are not explosive play types. There just aren't enough paths to high-value touches in this area.
Pre-draft, I would have told you that players in this archetype include Kyle Monangai and Damien Martinez, but they got such little draft capital that they're basically free now. You can take a flyer on them if you really want to.
By blending these factors with our own pre-draft evaluations, we can make sure that our judgements on player quality blend efficiently with the share and shape of opportunity a prospect can earn. By making sure the juice is worth the squeeze, we can increase our success rates in dynasty rookie drafts.