If you’re drafting best ball leagues throughout the offseason, or are just interested in following the fantasy market trends, this is the article series for you. I’ll be using ADP data over on Underdog Fantasy to keep track of how the 2025 Fantasy Football community is changing its opinion on players.
I’ll identify the biggest risers and fallers of the past two weeks for fantasy football. This article looks at how ADPs have changed from May 16 to May 30. I’ll identify why the change is occuring and comment on whether there is opportunity for value with the current changes.
Risers
Jaylen Wright – Up 12.6 spots
ADP 174.3 (RB53)
Jaylen Wright is climbing after the Dolphins replaced Raheem Mostert with Ollie Gordon. While Gordon may have a clearer path to touches as a goal line back, Gordon doesn’t have the speed or agility to be a 3 down back. Wright is pretty firmly ahold of the handcuff postion behind De’Von Achane. While Achane is coming off an incredibly healthy season, with his small frame his handcuff will always have fantasy value.
Will Shipley – Up 12 spots
ADP 179.6 (RB54)
I don’t think there’s any real reason for Will Shipley to make this move up boards other than people wanting to get a piece of Saquon Barkley’s handcuff. Barkley is coming off an incredible season, but with that type of volume at his age, there’s a significant risk he misses extended time. With Kenneth Gainwell gone, Shipley has a clearer path to being a workhorse back should Barkley miss time.
Justice Hill – Up 11.5 spots
ADP 184.2 (RB55)
Justice Hill continues the trend of fantasy managers aiming for value in handcuff running backs on good offenses. I don’t think Hill fits the handcuff role quite as well, as he’s more of a third down back that would share time with another back should Derrick Henry miss time. Still, this is a good offense and the Ravens like to use Hill as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
Because of Hill’s lack of injury upside compared to the previous two risers, I’d much prefer Wright or Shipley in best ball tournaments. In deeper managed leagues though, Hill is more likely to provide some flex-worthy performances throughout the season.
Dyami Brown – Up 10.6 spots
ADP 200.6 (WR82)
Dyami Brown is receiving a significant bump based on OTA hype. Brown spent years in Washington with no production until his final season where he took advantage of limited opportunities. While having to share targets with Brian Thomas Jr and Travis Hunter may not seem like a path to fantasy success, Brown has a clear path to being on the field for three wide receiver sets.
Jaguars new head coach, Liam Coen, comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree, and we’ve seen McVay's WR3 take on the deep sideline role that may not result in consitent fantasy performances, but can result in big games. Demarcus Robinson filled this role for McVay the past two years and finished as a top 36 wide receiver in 11 of his last 23 games with the Rams.
While there’s certainly a possibility that Brown has good games throughout the season and has upside in best ball leagues, I don’t see him holding much value in managed leagues outside of injury contingency.
Adonai Mitchell – Up 8.3 spots
ADP 200.7 (WR83)
There doesn’t seem to be any real reason for Adonai Mitchell to be rising right now. It’s possible that the dying down of rookie hype is allowing him to rise, but no reason for him to be moving more than other receivers.
While Mitchell does have a better shot at earning a WR2 role for his team than others in this range, it’s not a desirable situation. The Colts will be a run-first team with Jonathan Taylor, and just added Tyler Warren in the 1st round of the 2025 NFL Draft, who will almost certainly be ahead of whoever is the WR2 for the Colts this year.
Still, there are a lot of unknowns in Indianapolis. We could see an improvement from Anthony Richardson as a passer, or maybe Daniel Jones simply needed a change of scenery. There are worse bets to take than on a talented 2nd year receiver, but I don’t currently see him as a value.
Dak Prescott – Up 3.7 spots
ADP 116.6 (QB14)
Dak Prescott should continue to show up in this risers section for most of the offseason. The worst healthy season of Prescott’s career saw him finish as QB14, the same position he’s being drafted now. Since that season in 2018, he’s finished as the QB2, QB8, and QB3 in his healthy seasons.
I understand Prescott has an injury history, but I don’t see that as more of a lack of luck than a playstyle or body type that leads to injury. I don’t see him with any higher risk of injury than any other quarterback.
Now that the Cowboys have added George Pickens, a legitamite second option in the passing game, Prescott should have no issues well outpacing that QB14 ADP. I’m picking him up anywhere I can right now while the market forgets the type of player he is for fantasy when healthy.
Evan Engram – Up 2.7 spots
ADP 109.9 (TE9)
I identified Evan Engram as a tight end sleeper back in March, and following the 2025 NFL Draft, it seems the market is catching up. Engram continues to see a modest bump after escaping the draft unscathed. The Broncos didn’t make any significant investment at tight end besides Engram and he should have a clear path to targets in Denver.
Fallers
Dylan Sampson – Down 15.8 spots
ADP 197.1 (RB60)
You’ll notice a bit of a trend in the fallers section this week – rookies. The market is based on human nature and we see that clearly around draft season as fantasy managers clamour for their favourite newcomers to the NFL.
Very quickly though, fantasy managers come back to reality and rookies inevitably see a drop. Dylan Sampson is someone that I was quite high on pre-draft. The landing spot is absolutely not ideal, with Quinshon Judkins’ great draft capital and Jerome Ford still around, not to mention the uncertainty in the quarterback room lowering the ceiling fo the whole offense.
Still, I don’t think Sampson deserves this big of a fall. I think Sampson’s skills is much too high to be ranked this far below many of the backup running backs in the league, even if they play on better offenses.
Elic Ayomanor – Down 13.6 spots
ADP 210.1 (WR88)
Another rookie and another player I was very high on pre-draft. What differs with Elic Ayomanor though, is that he’s still quite raw. He didn’t receive many reps in college after missing his first seaosn with an injury. While I think there’s long term potential here, I agree with the market that there’s not much upside in year 1, especially with the veteran options the Titans have around rookie quarterback Cam Ward.
Devin Neal – Down 13.5 spots
ADP 198.9 (RB61)
Here is one of the biggest values, particularly in best ball and dynasty leagues. Devin Neal was a very effective rusher in college, and while his draft capital wasn’t ideal, it came in a draft that was very deep at running back. I’d argue that the early 6th round capital Neal got would be equivalent to a 4th round selection in many other drafts.
Alvin Kamara will be 30 before the season starts. He hasn’t managed 4.2 yards per carry since 2020. The Saints are not a contender, and won’t be while Kamara is still around. There is a very good chance that at some point this season the Saints give more reps to the non-Kamara running backs, and even possibly turning over the starting position to one of them.
I cant tell you who between Neal and Kendre Miller are going to make the best of those opportunities, so I'm taking both of them a bunch at their current bargain bin price in best ball leagues.
Keenan Allen – Down 7.5 spots
ADP 186.3 (WR77)
Keenan Allen is still unsigned heading into June. The history of veteran wide receivers Allen’s age still unsigned at this stage is not good. If a wide receiver needy team wanted Allen, he would’ve signed already. It’s possible that a camp injury leads to an opportunity for Allen, but I still don’t think the talent is there to be fantasy relevant. The market has it right on this one.
Caleb Williams – Down 6.1 spots
ADP 103.7 (QB10)
The Ben Johnson honeymoon is reaching its end – for fantasy at least. I think Caleb Williams has a lot of potential upside this season, and the team continues to add great weapons around him, but there’s way too many proven quarterbacks he’s going ahead of right now.
I expect Williams to continue to fall throughout the offseason and eventually trade places with Prescott.
Colston Loveland – Down 5.2 spots
ADP 118.9 (TE10)
Colston Loveland’s fall is another example of rookie fever dying down. While Loveland is my bet to have the best career of the 2025 class of tight ends, rookies don’t always do what Brock Bowers and Sam LaPorta did at the position.
The Bears have a lot of mouths to feed and have yet to prove anything. I see a lot of similarities between the crowded room of pass catchers the Bears and Packers have, but you can get all of the Packers’ receivers for a significant discount compared to the Bears.