With the dust beginning to settle following the 2025 NFL Draft, it’s time to start evaluating the fantasy landscape with a better understanding of team composition. This series will highlight the NFL teams that went through important changes in the offseason and offer fantasy upside.
The team I’m highlighting this week checks a bunch of boxes for fantasy, but some uncertainty around the distribution of targets seems to be dampening the mood around their fantasy prospects. That team is the Green Bay Packers.
Since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach of the Packers in 2019, they have finished in the top half of the league in scoring every year. That’s the type of consistent offense that should attract fantasy managers. Last season, despite quarterback Jordan Love missing time with injury, the Packers finished the season 8th in scoring and 5th in total yardage.
When it comes to fantasy, one of the most widely held axioms is to target players on good offenses – the Packers are just that.
I’ll start off with a breakdown of the changes the Packers went through this offseason, then dive into why Josh Jacobs may not be the bellcow he was in 2024, followed by my argument of why you should target uncertainty in the distribution of targets, and finally an examination of the Packers’ 2025 Fantasy Football values.
Offseason Changes
While the Packers did not make a large number of changes to their offensive personnel from last year, the additions they did make, along with the return of some players from injury, could lead to a very different offense than we saw a season ago.
At running back, Jacobs returns as the incumbent starter, but 2024 3rd round selection MarShawn Lloyd returns after missing almost the entirety of the 2024 season with various injuries and ailments.
Wide receiver is the position with the most additions. Christian Watson will likely miss most of, if not the entire, 2025 season, while the rest of the group including Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Bo Melton return.
They’re joined by 2025 1st round selection Matthew Golden, 3rd round selection Savion Williams, and veteran Mecole Hardman. At tight end Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave return and will likely take the majority of snaps at the position.
A Split Backfield?
Josh Jacobs finished the 2024 season as the RB7 in points per game in half ppr leagues. His current ADP over on Underdog, the most reliable ADP source at this point in the offseason, places him at RB10.
While Underdog drafters this time of year are often quite sharp, I expect him to be a big riser as more casual drafters join the pool as we head towards the season. Still, RB10 is a fairly small drop off considering the factors working against Jacobs heading into 2025.
First and foremost, Jacobs benefited greatly from injuries to the other backs last season, leading to a consolidation of touches. Jacobs had a 60%+ snap share in 12 games last season after MarShawn Lloyd missed all but 1 game, and AJ Dillon missed the entire year.
After Josh Jacobs signed with the Packers, LaFleur made a statement that “no matter who the runner is, typically we like to platoon those guys” in an interview. That obviously didn’t materialize in 2024 after the Packers lost their 2nd and 3rd running backs on the depth chart, leading to Jacobs averaging the 6th most carries per game in the league.
While some may see Jacobs’ volume in 2024 as predictive for the future, the injuries around him, and LaFleur’s comments, should be considered.
There are also trends showing that players with extremely high workloads one season could be more susceptible to slips in efficiency and an increased injury risk. Josh Jacobs has already seen this happen in his career. In 2022, Jacobs took on a very high 340 carries which then led into a 2023 season which saw him miss the most games of his career and his lowest efficiency as well.
His 2024 mark of 301 carries may not have been quite as high as 2022 but the miles are certainly piling up on the 27 year old rusher heading into his 7th season as a starting NFL back.
Another Season of Target Uncertainty?
It’s very common to see fantasy managers avoid uncertainty within a team’s offense. While the human nature of avoiding risk is understandable, it’s not good practice for fantasy football. We’re not playing for 5th place, were playing to win. That means risks need to be taken. Popular fantasy football content creator JJ Zacahariason may be the most vocal proponent of targeting uncertainty, and he’s been very successful doing so.
Uncertainty around target distribution may be most heavily felt with the Packers. This is exasparated by a 2024 season that saw no top 24 wide receiver finishes for any of the Packers’ receivers despite finishing the season 12th in total passing yards.
We’ve seen this uncertainty grow even larger following the additions of Matthew Golden and Savion Williams in the 2025 NFL Draft. Since the NFL Draft, all of the top 6 pass catchers for the Packers saw their ADP drop. While the likelihood of any indiviual pass catcher being the player that breaks out may have decreased with a more crowded room, the likelihood of a pass catcher breaking out in that offense did not.
While the Packers did take a committee approach at wide receiver in 2024, the disappointing results last year likely pushed the Packers into a different situation. No more evidence of this is needed than the selection of Golden with the Packers’ first round selection. Wide receivers aren’t drafted in the middle of the 1st round to play minor roles in a passing offense.
Even if you’re skeptical about Golden’s abilities (preview of the next seciton, I’m not skeptical) you should be willing to buy the discount on one of the other receivers in the passing offense. Not only has the team just seen the flaws in spreading the ball too much, injuries are common in wide receivers, and this passing attack has a lot of avenues for injury contingency upside.
Values for Fantasy
Jordan Love
Current ADP – QB17
2024 Finish – QB17
The argument for Love is quite simple to me – he missed 2 full games, and left another in the first half in 2025. Draft Sharks injury anlaysis puts his projected missed games at 0.6 in 2025. The likelihood he misses as much time in 2025 as 2024 is very low, yet his ADP project him to have an identical finish to 2024.
Love also has a significant upgrade at wide receiver with the addition of Golden. I anticipate the offense will benefit greatly from Golden’s speed and ability to separate on the outside. With how productive LaFleur offenses have been throughout his time in Green Bay, I’d take a bet on a healthy Jordan Love finishing much closer to his 2023 finish of QB5 than his 2024 finish.
MarShawn Lloyd
Current ADP – RB59
2024 Finish – RB121
I outlined above how it’s very likely that the Packers take more of a committee approach to the backfield in 2025 than in 2024. I also outlined how Jacobs could be at a higher injury risk in 2025 after a heavy workload in 2024. That should give Lloyd increased injury-contingent value.
That’s just the situation though, and Lloyd’s talent should be highlighted as well. I believe Lloyd was the most explosive playmaker among 2024 NFL Draft running backs, and it wasn’t particularly close. Lloyd runs with a type of ferocity that you don’t often see. If you don’t believe me, watch for yourself.
Among the 2024 Draft class with at least 100 rushing attempts in their final college season, Lloyd finished 1st in breakaway rush percentage, showing the explosive nature of his game. He also finshed first in the class in PFF’s elusive rating.
The explosive nature of Lloyd’s game means that even if Jacobs stays healthy and Lloyd remains the RB2 for the team all year in a committee, a few big plays could make him much more valuable than his ADP in best ball leagues.
Matthew Golden
Current ADP – WR42
2024 Finish – N/A
Doubs, Wicks, and Reed have all been given a shot at being the top receiver in this Packers offense. Doubs has not shown any consistency in stringing together good weeks, Wicks has shown he cant be trusted to not drop the ball, and Reed hasn’t been trusted outside of the slot.
While one of those receivers could outplay their ADP, none of them has the ceiling of a WR1 for fantasy. Matthew Golden does. Golden’s film shows a player with extremely sharp movements, great play speed, and very strong hands.
There are a lot of individuals worried about Golden’s lack of production in college. I think the context around his development is important. We’re seeing more and more players that may not have the traditional production profile you aim for, still succeeding in the NFL. Brian Thomas Jr and Ladd McConkey are recent examples of that.
Golden’s profile isn’t identical to those prospects, but it shows how a changing college football landscape is adjusting how we look at prospects’ production profiles. In particular, Golden moved to Texas for the 2024 season. That transfer could explain Golden’s slower start and hot finish. The Texas offense was also one that only lost in the playoffs to the eventual National Champions, and Golden led that team in receiving yards and touchdowns.
The most important consideration with Golden though, is that the Packers were willing to spend a 1st round pick on him. That huge investment in Golden was not done in order for him to split targets evenly with the other receivers that have failed to separate themselves in this passing game. It’s no guarantee that Golden will succeed, but I love the tape and he’ll absolutely get the chance to be the dominant top receiver for a very good passing offense.
Tucker Kraft
Current ADP – TE13
2024 Finish – TE9
If there’s anyone outside of Golden that I think can solidify a key role in this passing offense, it’s Tucker Kraft. This offense tried to spread the ball around very equally and it did not lead to great results. While the Packers still made the playoffs, there was a constant feeling that this offense wasn’t performing up to its ability.
Kraft showed off more game-breaking ceiling in games than any other pass catcher on the offense. Kraft finished with 4 games over 60 yards receiving, and showed on film his ability to break tackles and pick up extra yards. I think it’s highly likely that when evaluating the past season, it was clear to the Packers’ coaching staff that Kraft stuck out and deserves an increase in targets.
It’s fairly simple. Kraft looked great. Probably better than any other pass catcher on the Packers. In fantasy you target talented players on good offenses, especially when that offense is led by a franchise quarterback and bright offensive minded head coach.
Whether Kraft will get the target concentration to really breakout is yet to be seen, but we’ve already seen him outpace his TE13 ADP in an offense that spreads the ball evenly.