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Take this from someone who greatly benefited (and profited) the last two years by waiting on tight ends in fantasy football drafts, taking chances on the “new hotness”. While we haven’t seen a long history of rookie tight ends turning in top 12 (TE1) performances, the last two years provided us with historic seasons.
In this article, we’ll explore the growing excitement around rookie tight ends and examine whether it’s warranted in redraft fantasy leagues. We’ll review the historical performance of rookie tight ends who finished as TE1s, identify the factors that typically contribute to top-12 finishes, and ultimately assess whether targeting rookie tight ends is a smart strategy—or a trap.
Why the Hype With Rookie Tight Ends?
Two years ago, 2nd-round pick Sam LaPorta burst onto the scene in a big way, overshadowing guys like Dalton Kincaid, drafted in the 1st round, and Michael Mayer, who, while drafted one pick later than LaPorta in the NFL draft, was highly regarded throughout the draft process. The offseason dynasty debate was typically Mayer versus LaPorta.
LaPorta immediately earned the second most targets on the Lions and had the most successful fantasy season for a rookie tight end since Mike Ditka in 1961 and finished as the TE2 in 2023.
2024 brought us generational talent Brock Bowers, who was drafted into the perfect situation, earning opportunities early and often. He told LaPorta to “hold my beer” and exceeded LaPorta’s rookie season by over 30 fantasy points. Bowers took over as the primary target earner in Las Vegas and finished last year as the TE1 overall, pacing Trey McBride by nearly 20 points.
Even more impressive is the value fantasy drafters found by drafting Bowers and LaPorta. Referring back to my article about finding values in Average Draft Position (ADP) movement patterns, especially with rookies, the spots in the draft where Bowers and LaPorta were taken returned significant positional value.
According to FantasyPros ADP, LaPorta was taken 147th overall (early round 13) as the TE16. In tight end premium (TEP) leagues like the Fantasy Football Player's Championship (FFPC), according to FantasyMojo.com, LaPorta’s May ADP was 130 at TE17. By August, he had moved 12 spots to 118 at TE14, returning between 12-15 spots of positional value, depending on when and where you drafted.
In 2024, both FantasyPros and FFPC tell us that Bowers was taken as TE11 at ADPs of 90 and 73, respectively (May FFPC drafts). By August FFPC drafts, he had only moved up four spots to 69th overall, still TE11. Fantasy managers had caught on a bit from LaPorta’s 2023 season, and were willing to take a shot on a rookie tight end finishing inside the top 12 at the position. It certainly paid off as fantasy managers returned 10 spots of positional value with Bowers.
It hasn’t always been like this, though, so perhaps taking a closer look at how rookie tight ends have performed over the years will help put things in perspective.
History of Rookie TE1 Seasons
Let’s look at all the seasons where a rookie tight end finished inside the top 12 of the position going back to 2010.
Nope, your eyes do not deceive you. Since 2010, there have only been seven rookie tight ends to finish as a TE1. That is out of over 250 rookie tight ends in my database. Most players on the list above have a few things in common. They were drafted in rounds one or two, earned at least 80 targets, or were the #1 or #2 target earner on their team.
Historically, the target statistics hold for all TE1s, not just rookies. Since 2010, there have been 182 tight ends to finish as TE1s in TEP leagues:
24 (13.19%) had fewer than 80 targets.
56 (30.8%) were not the #1 or #2 target earners on their team.
Lastly, 18 (9.9%) had neither 80 targets nor were the #1 or #2 target earner on their team. The seven-touchdown average for this group helped buoy many of them into the TE1 ranks.
Two players on the above list did not hit the target criteria, though one was close to hitting the minimum target threshold of 80. Let’s quickly examine these two outliers and contextualize how they became TE1s during their rookie seasons.
Rob Gronkowski
(New England Patriots)
Many consider Gronkowski the best tight end of all time, and he started his career with a TE1 season. I should mention that, depending on the scoring format or even the source used, some have him as TE11, and some have him on the outside looking in at TE13. My TEP scoring database places him just inside at TE12, with Chris Cooley and Vernon Davis tying for 2nd (allowing a 13th tight end to slide up).
Regardless, his numbers aren’t particularly impressive; 42 receptions for 546 yards are somewhat pedestrian, especially compared to his rookie TE1 cohort. He was fourth on his team in targets earned. His 176.60 (TEP scoring) points are the lowest on the list. It was his 10 touchdowns that propelled him into the TE1 tier.
Looking at his team environment, he had the GOAT at quarterback with Tom Brady entering his 11th season at age 33, coming off a 4,398-yard, 28-touchdown year in 2009. Gronkowski was joined by fellow rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez, who played two fewer games yet exceeded Gronkowski’s yardage total, finishing just one spot behind Gronkowski in TEP scoring.
Randy Moss was also on this team, but you might have forgotten that since he only played four games for the Patriots that season. He was traded to the Vikings, who waived him after four games, and was then picked up by the Titans, where he played sparingly in eight games. The team leader in targets for the Patriots that year was Wes Welker with 123, though at 5’9”, he was not an ideal red zone target. Gronkowski helped fill this need for the Patriots, contributing to his double-digit touchdown output.
Evaluating tight ends overall in 2010, it was the worst year in terms of average PPG from top-12 tight ends at only 13.22 PPG. So, a combination of team environment and league-wide production being down contributed to Gronkowski’s TE1 season. His 176.60 points are the 24th worst among all TE1s since 2010.
Pat Freiermuth
(Pittsburgh Steelers)
Freiermuth had a very similar fantasy point output to Gronkowski. He had fewer touchdowns with seven, though he had 60 receptions, which in a Points Per Reception (PPR) or TEP league, helped bolster him into the TE1 tier.
Freiermuth’s team environment was highlighted by the final season of Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger had a career-low yards per attempt in 2021 and was inclined to check down to lower Average Depth of Target (ADOT) options. Just ask Najee Harris, whose perception as a “pass-catching back” is surviving off his 94 targets and 74 receptions that season. It was also Freiermuth’s lowest ADOT season of his career.
Like Gronkowski, Freiermuth was the fourth option on his team, trailing Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and the aforementioned Harris. Considering the check-down nature of the 21st-ranked Steelers offense, Freiermuth’s TE1 season is impressive given that context.
Evaluating the TE1 tier in 2021, the average PPG from this group was middle-of-the-road going back to 2010, though Freiermuth would have snuck into the top 12 in most years. Overall, it was a decent season from the first-year tight end, even though it lacked eye-popping stats.
What does all this mean when looking at the incoming class of rookie tight ends?
Applying History to the 2025 Rookie Tight Ends
Before this year, 12 tight ends were drafted in the 1st round since 2010. Four of them turned in TE1 seasons, with two of those coming in the last two years. This year, we saw two tight ends taken with top-14 draft capital, which is the first time that has happened at least going back to 2000, and the most tight ends drafted in the 1st round since 2019.
Colston Loveland was drafted by the Chicago Bears with the 10th overall pick, and Tyler Warren went four picks later to the Indianapolis Colts. Both players were highly touted entering the draft, though there were varying opinions about how strong of prospects they were, both when compared to the other tight ends in the class as well as to other tight ends drafted with similar draft capital.
Nonetheless, they are perceived as future fantasy studs, already ranked as top-12 dynasty tight ends on many fantasy sites. While I think this is fair, we may want to pump the brakes on how successful their maiden voyage will be.
Aside from their established draft capital, recall the two other things TE1 candidates typically need: top-two target rank on their team and/or 80+ targets. Let’s take a look at how these apply to our two 1st-rounders.
Colston Loveland
(Chicago Bears)
Tweet via @JackLucenay on X
Jack, sir, you may be onto something. Let me explain.
Loveland is joining a team that, by all accounts, is on the rise. New head coach Ben Johnson, one of the best play-callers we have seen in recent years, is a big reason why many are projecting this team to take a massive step forward. They have a promising second-year quarterback in Caleb Williams, who showed improvement during the latter part of his rookie season.
Optimism notwithstanding, Loveland enters a room with several extremely capable and established pass-catchers in D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. Starting running back D’Andre Swift earned 52 targets last year (fifth on the team, only three behind Kmet) and earned 70 targets in 2022 with the Lions during Johnson’s first year as OC.
Johnson has a track record of utilizing pass-catching running backs in his offense. They also added rookie wide receiver Luther Burden in the 2nd round, whose physical attributes and run-after-the-catch abilities translate well to what Johnson has done previously with the Lions.
While I think the future is bright for Loveland as he begins to establish himself on the team and roles within this new-look offense become clearer, I have a hard time projecting him to be better than the third or fourth target earner on the Bears next year. Short of an injury (or multiple injuries), or the new staff moving on from players like Kmet or Moore, the path to being a top-two target earner or 80 targets is very murky in year one.
One of the better film scouts in the business is Matt Waldman, who produces the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP) yearly. Waldman uses a “Depth of Talent Score” to rank players. That score is based on weighted values across 10 skill categories for tight ends.
Those weighted values are combined into a single Depth of Talent score with bonuses applied for “ease of fix” potential, which is exactly what it sounds like – how easy is it for a player to improve upon a particular skill category?
Lastly, the DOT scores are placed within a grading scale of 0-100. The DOT score is important as, rather than simply ranking players 1-10, it provides context as to how each player projects to perform in the NFL. I will provide the top four grades here for reference (directly from the RSP):
100-95 (Rare): Instant All-Pro upside; takes over games and changes teams.
90-94 (Franchise): Immediate production and leadership anchor.
85-89 (Starter): Starting immediately with large role and learning on the go.
80-84 (Rotational Starter): Executes at a starter level in a role playing to their strengths.
Waldman had Loveland as his TE1 in this class with a DOT score of 88.8, and Chicago agreed. While the pros for Loveland center around being in a promising offensive environment with a stable quarterback situation, the primary con, for this year anyway, is the old cliché “too many mouths to feed.” From a dynasty perspective, he may be a buy-low candidate mid-season depending on how he performs early on, as I would anticipate a new target pecking order heading into next year.
Early ADP in May has Loveland at 129 overall and TE12. I see this as his ceiling IF everything breaks right. I don’t think I will be making that bet this year.
Tyler Warren
(Indianapolis Colts)
Warren’s situation is a little bit different. The Colts are experiencing somewhat of an identity crisis. Having just spent top-4 pick draft capital on a quarterback two years ago, there are questions about whether Anthony Richardson is their quarterback of the future. They acquired Daniel Jones during the offseason to add some competition under center.
In terms of pass-catchers, their number one option will likely remain Michael Pittman Jr., who underwhelmed last year, though he played through a back injury most of the season. Missing three games of his own, Josh Downs emerged in his year-two campaign as a strong second option, trailing Pittman by only four targets and producing three more receptions than his running mate.
After that, Alec Pierce has yet to establish himself as a reliable or consistent third option, usually used as an occasional deep threat. Lastly, rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell showed flashes last year, earning only 55 targets with a suboptimal 41.81% catch rate.
The last piece of the target distribution puzzle is the running back, where the Shane Steichen factor comes in. Steichen has shown a propensity to flex his scheme to his personnel, especially in his backfield. In Steichen's offenses, the percentage of targets to the running back has varied greatly:
Chargers 2019-2020: 31.60% and 26% respectively (1st and 4th in NFL) - Austin Ekeler's prime years
Eagles 2021: 22.70% (5th in NFL) - low volume offense with receiver/TE injuries creating opportunity
Eagles 2022: 12.80% (32nd in NFL) - added alpha receiver A.J. Brown
Colts 2023-2024: 15.20% and 13.20% (27th and 29th in NFL) - Jonathan Taylor missed significant time in both seasons
Steichen adjusts based on available talent and perceived strengths. Taylor averaged a 10%+ target share before Steichen's arrival but under 8% the last two seasons. Recent additions Khalil Herbert (4.3% career target share) and rookie D.J. Giddens (9.6% college target share) suggest Steichen isn't prioritizing receiving output from his backfield, potentially opening opportunities for Warren as an underneath target.
What does all this mean for Warren? As with anything in fantasy football, it’s all speculation, and as Christopher Harris likes to say, “You can’t legislate usage.” The pros for Warren are that the team should likely have a sub-15% target share to running backs, opening up lower ADOT opportunities. There is also little proven production behind Pittman and Downs, so Warren could easily step in and be the #3 target on the team on day one, with contingent upside to become the #2 option with an injury to either Pittman or Downs.
There are numerous cons for Warren. First, the quarterback situation is shaky. Richardson has yet to put together a full season, and when he has been on the field, the production and efficiency haven’t been ideal. Most of his upside comes from his rushing ability, which does not help Warren.
Jones likely isn’t that much better for Warren, either. The Giants moved on from the sixth-year signal caller, where he had varied success. Jones’s ability to keep offenses on schedule and convert first downs is a concern.
Aside from 2022, when the Giants ranked 8th in the league in first-down conversions, they have consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in this category with Jones at quarterback. Perhaps a new system with different weapons will help, but again, this is speculation, and we can’t know for sure until we see it.
Finally, while Warren is a good player, the draft community may be a bit over their skis with the hype. Waldman had Warren as his TE5 in this class with a DOT score of 82.7, citing concerns about blocking and route running. Quoting Waldman from his pre-draft RSP:
“As a blocker, Warren overextends too much, telegraphing his intentions and allowing defenders to dictate the action. Warren also doesn’t use his hands nearly enough in situations where a blocker in the NFL can’t throw haymakers with his body…
Warren’s route running is also a work in progress. There’s no artistry with releases from the line—everything is performed at the same predictable pace.
Warren doesn’t set up defenders well as a route runner. He must develop more feel for how to maximize his attempts to do so.”
Steichen’s run-focused offense relies on blocking, so unless Warren can improve upon this immediately, it may limit his snap share initially. The Colts have two capable blockers at tight end with Mo Alie-Cox and Drew Ogletree. I also have some concerns about the perception of how Warren will be used in the NFL.
Many analysts are enthusiastic about Warren’s versatile usage at Penn State as a receiver, runner, and passer, labeling him a do-it-all player. While Warren was one of the best athletes on his team in college (a converted quarterback), he may find the competition a bit stiffer in the NFL. I am skeptical that the Colts will scheme as many plays for Warren or line him up in the backfield with the level of talent already on the roster.
Early ADP in May has Warren at 116 overall and TE10 – just ahead of Loveland. While I don’t think it is likely, I would place a higher chance of Warren finishing as TE10 than Loveland finishing inside the top 12.
To wrap up my take on these two first-year tight ends, both can achieve TE1 status during their careers. While I think the talent and offensive environment favor Loveland long-term, if I had to pick between the two for year-one production, I lean towards Warren given the ambiguity of talent in front of him and contingent upside with an injury to either of the two target earners ahead of him.
Who else should we look to from this tight end class as “dark horse” candidates to achieve TE1 status in 2025?
Other Rookie Tight Ends to Consider
We’ll touch briefly on a few other rookie tight ends to keep an eye on who may have an opportunity to break into that top-12 tight end conversation. These guys didn’t have quite the draft capital as Loveland or Warren but were taken with 2nd or 3rd round picks, on teams with questions on offense and not a ton of clear answers.
Mason Taylor
(New York Jets)
The 2nd round pick out of LSU is Waldman’s TE2 in this class, pre- and post-draft, with a DOT score of 86.3. Taylor joins a Jets team without much competition in front of him. Garrett Wilson is entering his fourth season and has been very productive despite less-than-ideal offensive environments. While he earned a target share of almost 30% two years ago (8th in the league), with Davante Adams in town, it went down to just over 26% last year (18th in the league).
Adams is now gone, and the Jets did little else in the offseason, re-signing Allen Lazard and acquiring free-agent Josh Reynolds. They drafted rookie wide receiver Arian Smith out of Georgia in the 4th round. They also have a new quarterback in Justin Fields, who looks to revive his career in East Rutherford after some inconsistent play in Chicago and moderate success in limited action last year in Pittsburgh.
I think Taylor could easily step in as the #2 target earner on this team behind Wilson. Lazard is approaching 30 years old and hasn’t played a full season since 2019. He had a relatively low target share of 13.89% last year, and that was with him being hand-picked by Aaron Rodgers. Reynolds is entering his eighth season and has never been more than a complementary role player.
Taylor is a good blocker, fluid athlete, strong route runner, and great at the catch point. With the Jets looking to find their identity, the 21-year-old 2nd round pick out of LSU may figure into that identity as early as this year.
Elijah Arroyo
(Seattle Seahawks)
Arroyo was drafted in the 2nd round out of Miami. He was Waldman’s TE4 in this class pre-draft and came in at TE5 post-draft with a DOT score of 83.2. He joins a team in Seattle with a second-year head coach in Mike Macdonald, a first-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak from the Saints, and a new quarterback, Sam Darnold, coming off a career year in Minnesota.
In addition, they added several new pass-catching options in Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling via free agency and drafted wide receiver Tory Horton in the 5th round. Returning are star wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who broke out in a big way last year, and veteran tight end Noah Fant.
The key departure was D.K. Metcalf being traded to the Steelers, who sent the 52nd overall pick in this year’s draft back to Seattle, who used this pick to trade up to pick 50, which turned into none other than Arroyo. With so many new pieces and so little to form an opinion from, it makes for a very ambiguous situation. When there is ambiguity, there is opportunity.
Fant is currently the TE1 on the depth chart, and while he earned close to an 18% target share last year, he turned that into just TE26 production. Smith-Njigba should likely earn a 25%+ target share, improving upon what he did last year. Kupp will be 32 when the season starts and has missed 18 games over the past three seasons.
There is no denying that Kupp can still be productive on the field, but it’s unclear how Seattle will deploy Kupp and Smith-Njigba together, with both playing a large percentage of their routes from the slot.
Arroyo’s size-speed profile could easily propel him to the #3 option on this team. The unknown role that Kupp and Smith-Njigba will play while on the field together creates uncertainty. An injury to either one presents a great opportunity for a young athletic pass-catcher to step up.
Arroyo could be that player, and it will be worth keeping an eye on training camp reports out of Seattle as the season approaches to see if there is any meaningful buzz on the rookie.
Harold Fanin Jr.
(Cleveland Browns)
With the Browns, there is even less clarity than with the Seahawks. They are in complete rebuild mode, drafting two quarterbacks, Dillon Gabriel in the 3rd round and Shedeur Sanders in the 5th, to pair with veterans Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett. They spent early picks on two running backs, Quinshon Judkins in the 2nd round and Dylan Sampson in the 4th.
They return three of their primary pass-catchers from last year in wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman, and tight end David Njoku. They added veteran team-hopper Diontae Johnson during the offseason as well. The foundation of this team is its defense, which I believe coach Kevin Stefanski hopes can keep them afloat as they figure things out on offense.
Enter Fannin Jr., Waldman’s TE3 in this class pre and post-draft with a DOT score of 83.3. He is a prolific pass-catcher who led the nation in receptions and yards last year at Bowling Green.
While Njoku is a solid tight end, emerging as a real weapon over the last two years, earning target shares of 25% and 27.51% respectively, he has not been a pillar of health. He hasn’t played a full season since 2018, missing six games last season.
The Browns deploy 12 personnel (1 running back, 2 tight ends) infrequently, 16.46% of the time ranking 21st in the league last season (according to sumersports.com). Looking at the depth chart from 2024, it is pretty easy to understand why. While the propensity to run 12 personnel is not directly correlated to a second tight end receiving targets, given that the Browns projected WR3 on the depth chart is Jamari Thrash, one could argue that increasing their 12 personnel usage would simply be an excuse to get a better playmaker on the field in Fannin Jr.
Fannin Jr. is an elite athlete, not quite at the level of Bowers, but still very good. Behind Jeudy and Njoku, the door is wide open for a #3 option. Fannin Jr. could be that right away, given his pass-catching prowess. The Browns aren’t afraid to move their tight ends around in the formation, either, as Njoku ran 41% and 34% of his routes from the slot over the last two years, respectively.
Waldman believes Fannin Jr. profiles very well to someone like LaPorta, who found success in year one. If the Browns can figure some things out on offense, Fannin Jr. could hit the ground running in his rookie year if he proves himself worthy during training camp.
Are Rookie Tight Ends a Trap?
No, Admiral Ackbar, I don’t think rookie tight ends are a trap. As teams continue to invest serious draft capital into the position, and as the position continues to evolve as more of a pass-catching weapon, I think the opportunity for rookie tight ends to be relevant is very much alive. Fantasy managers may want to proceed with caution, however.
Rookie tight ends drafted in the 1st round have a 33% hit rate of returning a TE1 finish their first season, though two of the four instances occurred in the last two years. This reinforces the optimism that rookie tight ends can be fantasy-relevant. However, I fear recency bias may lead to overhyped expectations that ignore historical data and team context.
Tight ends that fail to hit 80 targets or earn at least the second most targets on their teams are much less likely to finish as a TE1, whether they are rookies or not. Only seven rookie tight ends have finished as a TE1 since 2010, and only two did so while not meeting these target criteria.
Again, take it from someone who gambled on these first-year phenoms the last two years and benefited greatly. While rookie tight ends aren’t inherently traps in redraft, wise fantasy managers should take their shots opportunistically, not based on recency bias.