In the ever-evolving landscape of fantasy football, uncovering a late-round running back who becomes a league-winner is akin to striking gold. Kyren Williams (2022 5th-round pick, RB1 in 2023) and Chase Brown (2023 5th-round pick, RB2 in 2024) redefined the value of patience and scouting.
Now, Kimani Vidal, the Los Angeles Chargers’ 6th-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, is positioned to follow their footsteps. In this deep dive, we explore Vidal’s college dominance, draft value, pathway to opportunity, and why he’s the next hidden gem for fantasy managers.
College Dominance
Vidal’s Historic Senior Season
Kimani Vidal’s 2023 campaign at Troy wasn’t just productive—it was historic. Below, we compare his final collegiate season to Kyren Williams’ (Notre Dame) and Chase Brown’s (Illinois) senior-year performances:
Key Takeaways
- Vidal led all FBS RBs in forced missed tackles (94) and ranked 2nd in rushing yards (1,661).
- His 3.9 yards after contact per attempt and 44 receptions highlight his dual-threat versatility.
- Williams and Brown were productive, but Vidal’s efficiency and tackle-breaking prowess set him apart.
Why This Matters
Elite college production is the strongest predictor of NFL success for late-round RBs. Since 2010, Day 3 picks (Rounds 4–7) with 1,500+ rushing yards and 40+ receptions in their final college season boast a 22% RB2+ hit rate—nearly triple the rate of other Day 3 RBs (7%).
Draft Pedigree
Late-Round Steals Share Similar Red Flags
All three backs were undervalued for perceived flaws that proved irrelevant in the NFL
Historical Context
- Day 3 RB Hit Rates: Only 7% of RBs drafted in Rounds 4–7 become RB2+ starters. This jumps to 22% for those with 1,500+ rush yards and 40+ catches in college .
- Williams and Brown succeeded due to system fit (McVay’s zone scheme, Cincy’s vertical offense). Vidal now enters a similar ideal scenario.
Opportunity
The Chargers’ RB Room is Wide Open
The Chargers’ backfield is ripe for upheaval, and Vidal’s path to touches is clear.
Incumbent Analysis
Gus Edwards
- 2024 Stats: 3.6 YPC, 4 TDs on 101 carries.
- Contract: $3.2M non-guaranteed in 2025. At 29, he’s a prime cut candidate.
J.K. Dobbins:
- Post-ACL Performance: Two season-ending injuries since 2021.
- 2024: Grade 2 MCL Sprain in Week 12. His reliability is nonexistent.
Vidal’s 2024 Teaser
Though buried early, Vidal flashed potential
- Weeks 12–17: 4.4 YPC, 38-yard TD catch.
- Advanced Metrics: 72.1 PFF rushing grade (small sample), 85th percentile in broken tackles per carry.
Kyren/Chase Blueprint
- Williams: Seized the Rams’ job after Cam Akers (3.8 YPC) imploded.
- Brown: Took over when Zack Moss got hurt, averaging 6.0 YPC.
- Vidal’s Path: Edwards/Dobbins are walking red flags. Their decline is inevitable.
Scheme Fit
Jim Harbaugh’s Ground-and-Pound Revival
Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman (ex-Ravens) are reviving a run-first identity reminiscent of Harbaugh’s 49ers and Roman’s Ravens.
Greg Roman’s RB Legacy
- Baltimore Ravens (2019–2022):
#1 in rushing yards (11,330).
Produced three 1,000-yard rushers (Lamar Jackson(2x), Mark Ingram).
- Philosophy: Gap/power runs, heavy personnel, and play-action off stacked boxes.
Vidal’s Perfect Role
- Power Runs: His 94 missed tackles and 3.9 YAC/att thrive in Roman’s system.
- Screens/Checkdowns: 44 receptions at Troy prove he’s more than a bruiser.
- Red Zone: Harbaugh prioritizes RBs near the goal line (see: 49ers’ Frank Gore era).
Comparison
- Kyren Williams: Thrived in McVay’s outside-zone scheme (vision + patience).
- Chase Brown: Explosive in Cincy’s spread offense (speed + space).
- Vidal’s Edge: A tackle-breaking machine in a system built for power.
Threats to Breakout
(And Why They’re Overblown)
Threat 1: 2025 NFL Draft
The Chargers hold the No. 22 pick, but needs at WR, CB, and EDGE are more pressing. Even if they draft a RB:
- Day 2 Options: Kaleb Johnson (Iowa), Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State).
- Reality: Harbaugh/Roman prioritize veteran RBs. Vidal’s draft cost (6th round) ensures opportunity.
Threat 2: Free Agency
(Najee Harris)
- Najee Harris: A free agent, the Chargers are $65M under the cap.
- Other Options: Aging vets like Ezekiel Elliott aren’t upgrades over Vidal.
Threat 3: J.K. Dobbins’ Health
Dobbins has played 22 games in 4 years. Even if healthy, he’s a change-of-pace back at best. Bottom Line: Vidal’s competition is Gus Edwards (washed) and a ghost (Dobbins).
2025 Fantasy Projections
Floor (3rd-Down Role)
- Touches: 6–8/game (50 carries, 15 catches).
- Stats: 400+ scrimmage yards, 3 TDs.
- Value: Fringe Flex/RB3 in deep leagues.
Ceiling (Starter)
- Touches: 15+/game (200 carries, 40 catches).
- Stats: 1,100+ scrimmage yards, 8 TDs.
- Value: High-end RB2, mirroring Chase Brown’s 2024 (1,350 all-purpose yards).
Best-Case Comp: Kyren Williams’ 2023 (1,144 rush yards, 15 TDs).
How to Draft Kimani Vidal
Redraft Leagues
- ADP: RB48 (Round 10–12).
- Strategy: Target him as your RB4/5. Pair with safer early-round picks (Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor).
Dynasty Leagues
- Trade Value: A 2025 3rd-round pick.
- Strategy: Buy low now. At 23, he’s a long-term RB2/3 with RB1 spikes.
Bold Prediction
- Vidal finishes as a top-24 RB in 2025.
Conclusion
Why Kimani Vidal is a Must-Draft
Historic College Production: 1,661 rushing yards, 44 receptions, 94 forced missed tackles.
Ambiguous Backfield: Edwards and Dobbins are replaceable.
Scheme Fit: Greg Roman’s power-run system rewards his tackle-breaking prowess.
Draft Cost: Free in Round 10+ with league-winning upside.
Final Thoughts
In fantasy football, value isn’t about draft position—it’s about opportunity and fit. Kimani Vidal has both. While Kyren Williams and Chase Brown shocked the world, Vidal is next in line. Don’t overthink it. Draft him. Profit. Repeat.