We’re officially just a few weeks away from the fantasy football playoffs, making each week extremely important. That said, to help you prepare, we’re going to be going over some of the most polarizing start/sit decisions according to ESPN’s projections. The players that will be eligible for this list are all close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 or WR2/RB2 based on ESPN’s PPR projections. With that being said, let’s take a look at the biggest Biggest Start’ Em Sit’ Em decisions for week 12.
Start
Wide Receiver
Josh Downs vs DET
ESPN Projection - WR31
Despite the return of Anthony Richardson, I still have Josh Downs as my WR24 on the week. Even though I’m scared of Richardson, Downs has simply been too dominant to leave out of your FLEX spot, at least. Downs is averaging 14.7 PPG on the year and has scored 14 or more points in six of nine games this season. The reason why Downs has been able to find success while Michael Pittman Jr struggles is due to his alignment.
Pittman works from the outside X spot, while Downs is getting those easy slot targets. So far this year, Downs has played 84.6% of his snaps from the slot according to PFF. It’s also worth noting that the Lions have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to wide receivers (397.6) and Downs also has a 94.6 grade on PFF’s Matchup Advantage tool.
Sit
Jakobi Meyers vs DEN
ESPN Projection - WR21
Jakobi Meyers is somehow producing once again, even though Gardner Minshew is his quarterback. Meyers is averaging 13.1 PPG but going up against the Broncos, this is a good week to leave him on your bench. You have to expect Patrick Surtain to be matched up on Meyers when he’s not guarding Brock Bowers.
Surtain and company have allowed the 7th least fantasy points to wide receivers (298), making this a tough task. On top of that, PFF’s Matchup Advantage Tool only gives Meyers a “average” 55.4 grade for the week. Meyers is typically a fine FLEX play but I would leave him on your bench this week.
Running Back
Start
Tyrone Tracy vs TB
ESPN Projection - RB20
Tyrone Tracy is quickly becoming a league winner with each week that passes by. Now that Tracy has had his bye week which is crucial for rookies, you can expect that he’ll be featured more than ever. This perfect storm continues as the Giants have an above average matchup for Tracy, taking on the Buccaneers. So far this year the Buccaneers have allowed the 9th most fantasy points (262.7) to running backs.
Up to this point, Tracy has been extremely productive. In every game that he’s had 16 or more carries, he’s averaged 16.6 PPG. Many think of Tracy as having a low floor, but he has also scored at least 14 PPG in five of his last six games. RB20 is way too low, and this week, I would make sure there’s a spot for Tracy in my starting lineup.
Sit
Rico Dowdle @ WAS
ESPN Projection - RB25
After Dak Prescott went down, Rico Dowdle has been struggling badly. In weeks 10 and 11, Dowdle hasn’t been able to score more than 10 points and unfortunately his situation isn’t changing. Unless Trey Lance somehow starts playing like the 3rd overall pick, this offense will struggle. If Cooper Rush continues to play at this poor of a level it’s going to be a long season.
I would be hesitant to start Dowdle even against the worst run defense, but the Commanders aren’t an unbelievable matchup. The Commanders have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to running backs (266.5) this year which is great but even then I’m not sold. Having watched Rush for two weeks in a row now, Dowdle has to prove himself again before he’s startable.
Quarterback
Start
Anthony Richardson vs DET
ESPN Projection - QB18
Anthony Richardson is by no means a sure thing this week but the same can be said for any other low end QB1 right now. The difference between Richardson and the field is that he has rushing upside that no one in that range can match. It’s also worth mentioning that fresh off the bench, Richardson just scored 28.08 points.
I’m not sold that this is a turning point but it’s without a doubt a step in the right direction. The Lions have allowed the 4th least fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, but with Richardson you’re already taking on the risk of a dud game. If you’re taking a risk on a quarterback for week 13, why not bet on the guy that can score you 28 points in a week.
Sit
Tommy DeVito vs TB
ESPN Projection - QB13
Tommy DeVito is being ranked as a borderline low-end QB1 in week 12, which is wild to me. I know DeVito is a super fun guy to root for, but let’s be logical during this crucial fantasy football week. Some may only remember DeVito lighting up the Commanders for 22.5 points but fail to acknowledge that he had 9.4 PPG on the year. Even with Malik Nabers being added to the mix, this offense is horrible.
I’m fully aware that the Buccaneers have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points (246.8) to quarterbacks this year, which is a fair counterpoint. Even with that in mind, the Giants have the 6th lowest implied team total this week with 18 points. Expect DeVito to struggle and even if you’re desperate, it’s not worth it.
Tight End
Start
Mark Andrews @ LAC
ESPN Projection - TE16
Coming into the year, Mark Andrews was being drafted as an elite tight end. This season, Andrews has unfortunately been anything but. That said, since week six, Andrews has scored 14 or more points four times. The issue is that in those other two games, he scored less than five points. As I talked about with Richardson, I’m shooting for upside when ranking these low-end TE1s.
Going up against the Chargers, Andrews has a good matchup on PFF’s TE Matchup Tool. Andrews has a 23% matchup advantage, which is good for 6th on the week. On top of that, the Chargers have allowed the 8th least fantasy points to tight ends (100.6), but overall, the matchup tool takes a bit more priority for me.
Sit
Luke Schoonmaker @ WAS
ESPN Projection - TE14
With Jake Ferguson going down, many are wondering if Luke Schoonmaker is startable this week. Even though Schoonmaker had 11.6 points in week 11, don’t expect that to continue in week 12. As I talked about with Dowdle, Rush has made this Cowboys offense terrible, which has the biggest effect on the pass catchers.
On top of that, the Commanders are a below-average matchup for Schoonmaker as they’ve allowed the 14th least fantasy points (118.4) to tight ends this year. Unless the Cowboys get totally blown out again, I’m expecting a rough week for Schoonmaker.