Week 11 is a must-win week for almost every single fantasy team. If you’re at the top, your goal is to lock in that bye week. If you’re on the fringe of making the playoffs, one loss could cost you everything. That said, to help you prepare, we’re going to be going over some of the most polarizing start/sit decisions according to ESPN’s projections. The players that will be eligible for this list are all close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 or WR2/RB2 based on ESPN’s PPR projections. Good luck, everyone!
Wide Receiver
Start
Jauan Jennings - vs SEA
ESPN Projection - WR34
At this point in the season, Jauan Jennings is a must-play option in your flex spot. I’ve done a full deep dive on Jennings as a talent (click to see the full film breakdown) and come to the conclusion that he’s a great receiver, playing behind other great receivers. With Brandon Aiyuk out for the year, Jennings has been a massive benefactor. In Jennings’s first game without Aiyuk, he scored an impressive 16.3 points.
The matchup against the Seahawks looks average on the surface, as the team has allowed the 15th most fantasy points to wide receivers (322.6). When you dive a little deeper into the matchup though, PFF’s WR/CB matchup tool favors Jennings. According to the tool, Jennings has a “good” matchup with a grade of 76.8. I’m confidently putting Jennings in my lineup until I’m proven wrong.
Sit
Jaylen Waddle - vs LV
ESPN Projection - WR17
This may be the most obvious call on this list but I know way too many people that take ESPN projections very seriously. To be fair Waddle is coming off his best receiving performance since week one. Going for 57 receiving yards. I understand that a lot of the season isn’t Waddle’s fault but even with Tua Tagovailoa back in week nine he had -4 receiving yards.
The more confusing part about all of this is the Raiders are a horrible matchup tool. So far this season the Raiders have allowed the 3rd least fantasy points to wide receivers (248.8 points). There’s no reason to start Waddle until everyone in that situation figures their stuff out.
Running Back
Start
James Cook - vs KC
ESPN Projection - RB19
I know there’s going to be at least one person who’s going to say, how can James Cook be a must-start against the best run defense in the league? More specially, the Chiefs have allowed the least points to running backs this year (126.1). However my take is that you shouldn’t put Cook on your bench, not that he’s going to win your week.
In the last three games, Cook has been great, scoring 28.3, 11.9 and 15.5 points. The Bills have also scored at least 30 points in each of their last four games, which makes me very confident, especially because Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes always turns into a shootout. Even against this tough defense, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Bills with the 9th implied team total at 23.5 points. Cook can give you RB2 production at worse with his usual high upside play.
Sit
Nick Chubb - @ NO
ESPN Projection - RB22
I want Nick Chubb to make a comeback as bad as someone else. That said, people are overrating him in fantasy because of this “upside” case that doesn’t exist. Chubb has yet to score over 10 points this year and he’s scored less than six points in each of his last two games. The efficiency clearly isn’t there either as Chubb is averaging 2.7 YPC on the year.
With Chubb I understand this weekly ranking a bit more because the Saints have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to running backs this year (277.6). For a guy coming off a serous ACL injury at 28 years old, I need to see the production first.
Quarterback
Start
Drake Maye vs LAR
ESPN Projection - QB12
Drake Maye has crushed his expectations this year despite playing with a horrible supporting cast. While the lack of weapons is clearly holding Maye back from being an elite fantasy option, his rushing upside still makes him a great start. Maye has been a great runner since college, and we saw that on display in week nine. Against the Titans, Maye had 95 rushing yards, propelling him to 15.74 points.
We’ve also seen Maye’s upside in other weeks, scoring 19.5 and 20.8 in his first two full starts. Maye has a low floor due to the Patriots offense but he’s being viewed as a borderline QB1. For me, Maye is someone that I’m easily starting as a back end QB1 just based off his rushing upside.
Sit
Justin Herbert vs CIN
ESPN Projection - QB8
Justin Herbert is a significantly better real-life quarterback than fantasy quarterback, at least for this season. Herbert has gone on a bit of a hot streak recently, but he’s only had more than 30 attempts three times this season. Combine that with the fact that Herbert hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns yet this season.
The Bengals are a good matchup, which makes starting Herbert in a desperate situation understandable. That said, we’ve seen a larger sample size of Herbert disappointing, as he’s averaging 14.8 PPG. If you want to take a shot on talent, that’s understandable, but he’s very risky in this Chargers offense.
Tight end
Start
Sam LaPorta vs JAC
ESPN Projection - TE13
So far this year, Sam LaPorta has easily been one of the biggest busts this year, based on his ADP of 33 on FantasyPros. In LaPorta’s last four games, though, he’s scored more than 15 points in two and less than five in two. At this point, LaPorta is very boom or bust, which means you have to be matchup-hunting for him.
In week 11, LaPorta has a great matchup, getting to take on the Jaguars. So far this season, the Jaguars have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to tight ends this season with 143.9 points. On top of that, when you look at PFF’s TE Matchup Tool, LaPorta has a matchup advantage of 14%. ESPN has LaPorta outside the top 12, but I’m going to be starting him unless you already have another stud option.
Sit
Hunter Henry vs LAR
ESPN Projection - TE7
Hunter Henry has been solid this year, averaging 8.9 PPG, but he’s still a borderline TE1 for me at best. Even though I love Maye with his rushing upside, the Patriots offense as a whole is far too inconsistent for me. We’ve already seen that this year with Henry scoring less than six points in half of his games.
The matchup is fine for Henry taking on the Rams who have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to tight ends (126.5). Even so I would rather take a shot on Taysom Hill with the return of Derek Carr and their lack of overall weapons.