The NBA is boring, and everyone runs the same stuff now. I’ve seen that headline way too many times in the past couple of weeks and won’t go into that right now. What I want to go into, though, is what the effect of everyone running the same “stuff” is. In the modern NBA, teams are focused a lot more on motion offenses like having players get dribble handoffs (DHO’s) or, ball reversals, or short rolls. It’s what made Hartenstein so valuable to the OKC Thunders, being extremely decisive with the ball.

Having said all that, the average touches a player is receiving now is extremely important. Teams want their best players to have the ball of course, but teams now are passing more and want good decision makers with the ball too. This is the type of player I am trying to identify. Someone whose touches are increasing from week to week because they are gaining the trust of their coach. So first, let’s prove that touches matter with regards to fantasy points.

Looking at 2023, I took every game, every player and charted their touches per minute and their fantasy points per minute. We can clearly see that the more touches a player has, the more fantasy points they score. I also broke this down by how many minutes a player played, and as long as minutes are over 20, all buckets fantasy points increase as touches increase.

For this analysis, I wanted to find players whose touches per minute increased the most while their minutes did not increase. This means a player must remain in the same minute bucket (20-25, 25-30, 30-35,35-40) week to week. By doing so, I’m hoping to identify players whose fundamental ROLE has changed with their team. This would be someone like Karl-Anthony Towns from week 1 to week 2, where the Knicks featured him significantly more in their offensive scheme. Here are my top 5 candidates for role changes that could have a lasting impact on fantasy basketball

1. Christian Braun

17% Touches per Minute Increase

For Braun, the role has generally been the KCP role. When Murray and Jokic run the two-man pick-and-roll, you need to be able to shoot the ball and space the defense. Braun, throughout the season, has shown he is not only a great 3-point spacer (shooting 50% from 3 this year, 38% for his career), but he is surprisingly good at being an advantage extender.

This means when a defense is in rotation, Braun is able to attack gaps and force the defense to rotate again, which is extremely valuable in a Jokic-centric offense. In recent games, it looks like he’s able to be the primary ball handler as well in the two-man game with Jokic, and I believe that aspect of his role can expand even more.

2. Bub Carrington

15% Touches per Minute Increase

The role for Carrington is just primary ball handler at this point. From week 1 to week 2, we saw a big minutes increase, and from week 2 to week 3, a smaller one, which is why he remained in the same minutes bucket. With those minutes thought, we are seeing his touches increase as well. The Wizards are obviously tanking, and seeing Kyshawn George’s 17 3-point attempt game is a great indication that Carrington will have similar insane usage games with an unlimited leash. 

3. Tobias Harris

11% Touches per Minute Increase

The Pistons are using Tobias in every way possible. They primarily have him in the corner to space for Cade and Ivey, which, as Cade and Ivey continue to drive with force, will lead to more Tobias corner 3’s (he’s attempted 7,8 this week). He also gets play calls from the corner, where they run him off a baseline screen with a guard right into a post-up so that he can bully the smaller defender. They also run him in the PnR as a roll man or a ball handler. Tobias compliments Cade/Ivey well and will get more efficient touches as teams focus their defense on Cade/Ivey.

4. Coby White

6% Touches per Minute Increase

Josh Giddey leads the Bulls in touches per game and average time per touch. This is fine for Coby still as he has really played well off ball as well and being a spot up shooter. Coby has shot over 9 3’s in 8/10 games so far and leads the Bulls in Catch and Shoot attempts. Coby also has been great as a primary ball handler and I could see that role increase as well.

5. Austin Reaves

6% Touches per Minute Increase

Austin Reaves is the same exact case for Christian Braun. Lebron and AD have so much gravity that it’s important to be a spacer and extender. The issue with the Lakers was that Reaves was also the primary point of attack defender, which is why they made the Cam Reddish decision. With that decision, though, there’s a lot of offensive usage that is empty and will presumably be replaced by Reaves.

Those are my Week 3 players whose roles I could see changing rapidly which would lead to them being great fantasy assets. I’ll continue to take a look week over week to see if any of these changes are holding and if there are any additional players to be on the lookout for. See you next week!