After each week I’ll be looking at some of the most significant movers in Dynasty value. Dynasty fantasy football is about playing the long game, but weekly performances and factors such as injuries, scheme changes, etc. can have some very drastic impacts on the Dynasty values of players.
I’ll give you some context to ensure you can jump on the risers before they hit their peak and the fallers before they hit their floor. Generic “Buy Low, Sell High” type analysis misses a lot of the underlying context that’s valuable to fantasy managers. Sometimes that big performance is a time to buy as the player is rising, and sometimes that dud of a game is a time to sell as the player starts their descent to fantasy irrelevance.
All values are based on Keep Trade Cut valuations. Although every league is different, KTC provides a good generalization of how fantasy managers value players.
Risers
Tank Bigsby – RB
Jacksonville Jaguars (Sell)
Tank Bigsby has been a riser all season. He started the year as the RB60, was up to RB26 ahead of last week, and after a great performance is now the RB20. While I think Bigsby is a talented back and deserves to have seen a significant jump in value from earlier in the season, I think his current valuation is too high.
The Jaguars have been adamant about finding someone to split touches with Travis Etienne over the past few years, that’s why they drafted Bigsby in the first place. Even if Bigsby takes over as the “starter” eventually, the team isn’t suddenly going to change their philosophy on wanting a split backfield. Even in the best-case scenario, he’ll be in a near-even split with Etienne.
Even if a coaching change in the future brings in a different philosophy for the running back room, Bigsby’s inability to pass protect means he will never be relied on as a bellcow running back, and will lose opportunities in the passing game. The Jaguars haven’t looked like the most functional team either despite flashes in the offense, so expecting them to be ahead regularly and in a rushing game script isn’t a great bet to make. In games where the team is behind, which seems to be often, Bigsby has found himself on the sidelines more often than not, even with Etienne out.
If D’Ernest Johnson is taking snaps away from Bigsby in the passing game, that’s an issue. Bigsby is currently valued above a 2025 early 2nd. This is a very deep running back draft, and I think running backs that are more skilled than Bigsby, and have a clearer path to a 70%+ snap share, will be available early in the 2nd round.
Najee Harris – RB
Pittsburgh Steelers (Buy)
Najee Harris is back up to RB26 after falling as low as RB39 earlier in the month. Harris is a great scheme fit for the play-action attack that Arthur Smith wants to run with Russell Wilson. His recent boost in efficiency should be more sustainable now that Wilson is under center and offers more of a downfield threat.
Harris’ role seems safe after worries about Jaylen Warren’s emergence were discussed all off-season. Since Warren has returned from injury, Harris’ snap share has understandably decreased but he’s maintained the same volume of carries. That volume should continue in Arthur Smith’s offense. Smith’s offenses have been in the top 3 in rushing attempts in 4 of 5 seasons with him as the playcaller. Smith’s job and offensive scheme also are likely solidified after a 5-2 start to the season.
With Wilson now at quarterback the team is much more likely to score, and Harris' biggest issue the first 5 weeks of the season was not finding the endzone. That won’t continue if the team is getting into the redzone more often.
The biggest issue with Harris’ Dynasty value is his long-term prospects. The Steelers coaching staff said declining Harris' 5th-year option was about wanting to see how he fit in Smith’s system before committing. So far Harris has looked good in Smith’s system, especially since he’s played alongside Wilson who is much better suited to running that offensive system. With a 5-2 record and Harris playing his best football of the season, it seems clear that he’s adapting quite well to the new offensive system.
If he can continue this moving forward, an extension in Pittsburgh becomes increasingly likely. There’s also the fact that Harris has historically improved as the season progresses. As defenses become increasingly banged up, standing up to a big, imposing runner like Harris becomes increasingly difficult. With Najee currently valued below backups that have little chance of gaining his level of volume such as Braelon Allen and Tank Bigsby, I think now is a great time to buy the 4th year running back.
Fallers
Anthony Richardson – QB
Indianapolis Colts (Buy)
Anthony Richardson was as ranked as high as QB6 early in the season, was the QB13 heading into Week 7, and is now down to QB16. It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for Richardson, albeit with more lows than highs.
Is any of that really surprising though? Richardson was always intended to be a developmental QB; he’s younger than Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, and has significantly less starts under his belt since starting college than either of those quarterbacks. He also missed most of his first offseason in the NFL due to his shoulder injury, pushing back his development. He still has a lot of potential long-term, as shown by some of the big plays he made early in the season.
What’s even more promising for his development is having head coach Shane Steichen there to help him develop. Steichen is a great coach known for developing quarterbacks. There simply haven’t been enough opportunities yet for Richardson to develop with a shortened offseason and time missed early in his career due to injury.
Long term, I think we need a lot more patience with Richardson. We’ve seen with Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Geno Smith recently that the quarterback position can take time to develop. The Colts knew this when taking an inexperienced quarterback and aren’t going to quit on him early because of that.
This doesn’t mean he doesn’t have any value in the short term though. Richardson’s drop in value has been due to 2.5 bad games. Richardson’s biggest skill is his big play ability – both with his legs and his arm. We haven’t seen those big plays materialize the past few weeks, but they were shown off early in the season and will return, leading to some big fantasy performances.
It’s also promising that Richardson had his highest rushing attempts and yards in a game his most recent game. It shows that Richardson is willing to get back to his most useful fantasy skill.
It’s likely that Richardson will break off a big touchdown run or throw a 40+ yard touchdown pass sooner rather than later, and once he shows off that game-breaking ability, his value will once again take a turn up. He’s currently valued closer to a 2025 late 1st rounder than a 2025 mid 1st rounder. For teams that need a quarterback, Richardson is a much better option than anyone you’ll get in the early portion of 2025 rookie drafts, let alone at the end of the 1st.
Jaylen Waddle – WR
Miami Dolphins (Buy)
Jaylen Waddle has seen a slight bump up to WR24 with Tua Tagovailoa returning from injury. He had previously dropped to WR26, but I’ve included him here as a faller as he’s plummeted from the WR12 rank he had entering the season.
The Dolphins’ defense hasn’t been good. While they are near the middle of the pack in yards and points against, that doesn’t tell the full story. With Miami’s offense handicapped by poor quarterback play, teams simply haven’t needed to play aggressively against them after getting off to early leads. The Dolphins have the lowest passing attempts against them per game. The difference between them and the 2nd lowest team is more than the difference between the 2nd lowest team and the 10th lowest.
Teams simply don’t need to pass to roll past them right now, and the defense hasn’t been able to stop them. This isn’t a surprise either, the Dolphins were expected to have one of the worst defensive units in the league. All of that means that with Tagovailoa back, the Dolphins are going to need to pass the ball in order to stay in games, meaning lots of targets for Waddle in an explosive offense.
Now that Tagovailoa is back, not much has really changed from before the season for Waddle. Sure, there could be an added risk of future re-injury for Tagovailoa, but with how poorly the team performed without him, it’s almost guaranteed they’ll be in the market for a high-level backup next season. The other thing that’s changed is we’ve seen that Tyreek Hill may be at the start of his decline.
At his peak, Hill’s production wouldn’t have dropped by as much as it did with subpar quarterback play. While I expect Hill to rebound this season, if his play does start to diminish heading into next season and beyond as he moves further into his 30s, then Waddle will be in line for an increasing role.
Waddle is currently valued just ahead of a late 2025 1st round pick. At just 26 years old, I expect Waddle to continue to outperform the top 2025 1st round wide receivers for at least another three years, let alone the ones going in the late 1st round of rookie drafts. If you’re a contender with a projected late 1st rounder next year, now is the perfect time to sell that pick for a receiver that’s likely at the lowest value we’ll see him at for the rest of his prime.