After each week I’ll be looking at some of the most significant movers in Dynasty value. Dynasty fantasy football is about playing the long game, but weekly performances and factors such as injuries, scheme changes, etc. can have some very drastic impacts on the Dynasty values of players.
I’ll give you some context to ensure you can jump on the risers before they hit their peak and the fallers before they hit their floor. Generic “Buy Low, Sell High” type analysis misses a lot of the underlying context that’s valuable to fantasy managers. Sometimes, that big performance is a time to buy as the player is rising, and sometimes, that dud of a game is a time to sell as the player starts their descent to fantasy irrelevance.
All values are based on Keep Trade Cut valuations. Although every league is different, KTC provides a good generalization of how fantasy managers value players.
Risers
Chase Brown – RB
Cincinnati Bengals (Buy)
Brown’s value has shot up over the past few weeks, from RB37 at the end of September to RB23 now. Brown has been the more efficient runner in the Cincinnati backfield all season, and he’s now starting to get the playing time to reflect that. While the market is certainly picking up on Brown’s expanding role, I don’t think it’s fully pricing in how good Brown can really be.
Brown is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry so far this season. If Brown can keep up his effectiveness, and all signs have been that he can, the Bengals will have found their running back of the future. Joe Mixon’s usage over the past few years showed that Zac Taylor is not afraid to use a workhorse running back. This Cincinnati offense is an explosive, high-scoring unit. With Brown’s increasing rush share, he should see more and more scoring opportunities from within the red zone, on top of being able to break off long touchdown runs from anywhere on the field.
We haven’t seen Brown’s explosiveness much as a receiver yet this season, but he has seen a steady diet of 2-3 receptions a game that will likely result in a few big chunk gains as the season progresses. Brown’s subdued value is likely due to being in his 2nd year. If he had the label of rookie, I project he’d be going for much more in trades.
Rookie backs with much tougher paths to a workhorse role, such as Bucky Irving and Braelon Allen, are still valued well ahead of Brown. Brown has looked every bit as talented as those running backs, but he’s now the clear leader of a backfield while the others are, at best, part of a committee. A couple more weeks of Brown leading this backfield and the market won’t be able to hold back on Brown anymore, and you should get ahead of that by acquiring him while you still can.
Terry McLaurin – WR
Commanders (Buy)
McLaurin’s value has been on a steady rise this season. He entered October as the WR38 and is now up to WR33. While it’s good to see him starting to get the recognition he deserves, the Commanders' top receiver is still valued well below where he belongs.
Everyone wants the young, exciting new prospects on their team. I get it, it’s fun to think about what could be with those young receivers who have shown promise in the NFL. If you’re a contending team, though, players like McLaurin should be at the top of your list of targets.
McLaurin’s skill has always been apparent to anyone who watches the Commanders. And there lies the problem – before this season, no one watched the Commanders. McLaurin entered the season as one of the most underrated receivers in the league after dealing with some of the worst quarterback play in the league his entire career. While he’s begun gaining recognition alongside Jayden Daniels, there is still a layer of old-Washington stink on McLaurin for many.
The reality, though, is that McLaurin is a true number 1 receiver for one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the league. Daniels is already drawing rave reviews from everyone who watches him play and has orchestrated the most successful offense in the NFL. McLaurin has topped 100 yards twice in the top 4 weeks and hasn’t totaled less than 50 since Week 2. He’s had four touchdowns over the past four weeks as well. There simply isn’t any other receiving threat on the Commanders, and as teams increasingly look to take away Washington’s dominant run game, McLaurin will see even greater volume.
While McLaurin isn’t a target for rebuilding teams, contenders should be willing to part ways with the late future 1st that McLaurin currently costs. That’s a small price to pay for a player that will give you high-end WR2 numbers over the next 2-3 years with plenty of WR1 spike weeks sprinkled in. Contenders should also be willing to part with young receivers like Ladd McConkey and Jordan Addison, who are valued above McLaurin but are unlikely to outscore him over the next 2-3 years and don’t have great ceilings long-term.
Fallers
David Njoku – TE
Cleveland Browns (Buy)
Njoku entered the season as the TE12 and has seen a steady decline down to his current position as TE17. It’s not hard to see why Njoku has been a consistent faller this year. He’s been dealing with multiple injuries that have resulted in him missing time, and when he has been on the field, he hasn’t managed to get the ball too often. Njoku is only averaging 3.3 receptions for just under 30 yards a game. Those aren’t numbers you want out of your backup tight end, let alone your weekly starter.
That being said, I think Njoku should still be looked at as a top-12 tight end. We saw pretty clearly the ceiling he has in Kevin Stefanski’s offense. Njoku was a top 10 tight end in 7 of his final 8 games last season, including top 3 finishes in each of his final four games. That’s league-winning potential for a player who is currently valued at the cost of an early 2025 3rdround pick.
Njoku’s status as a buy candidate is all about the timing. Amari Cooper, Njoku’s biggest competition for targets, was just traded away. Njoku now projects to be the top target in this Browns offense. The reason he can still be had for so cheap, though, is that this offense has been horrendous. While that will be the case, as long as their current quarterback continues to be the starter, he won’t be forever. It’s likely that ownership has mandated a very long leash to the quarterback they committed $230 million to, but at a certain point, they’ll need to evaluate the rest of the team by putting someone at quarterback who can actually play the position.
Luckily for the Browns and Njoku owners, Jameis Winston is the backup quarterback in Cleveland. While Winston is unlikely to lead a team to the playoffs, he’s a great passer for fantasy purposes. More importantly, he’s a locker-room favorite who could bring new life to this heavy passing attack.
Winston is what makes me optimistic that Njoku is not only a good option for teams looking to next season and beyond. Once Winston gets to start, which I expect will happen sooner rather than later, Njoku will find himself as a top target in a pass-heavy offense that can move the ball. Stefanski showed last year that with a capable quarterback running the offense, he can put up a lot of points and do so with Njoku as a focal point of the offense.
Right now, Njoku can be had for somewhere between a future late 2nd and a 2025 early 3rd. If you can get him for that value, you need to jump on the opportunity. Njoku could be looked at as a top-10 tight end as soon as Winston is inevitably given a chance to start.
James Cook – RB
Buffalo Bills (Sell)
I’m pushing the boundaries of what is considered a faller here with Cook. His value peaked at RB7 towards the end of September, and he has since dropped slightly to RB9. No matter what direction his value is headed, though, he’s a priority sell candidate. Going into the season, there were questions about whether Cook would have the touchdown upside to warrant being considered a top-12 running back.
He seemed to ease those concerns with five total touchdowns across his first five games. The worries about his role in the red zone and as a workhorse running back shouldn’t be forgotten, though. Just last year, the Bills were trotting out a 33-year-old Latavius Murray to run the ball in the redzone. They then spent a 4th round pick on rookie running back Ray Davis. While Davis was only slightly involved through the first five weeks of the season, the rookie rusher had a breakout performance with Cook injured last week. Davis carried the ball 20 times for 97 yards, showing he deserves a role in this offense.
I am in no way saying Davis will overtake Cook as the starter for Buffalo, but I do think he will work significantly into Cook’s workload, especially in the red zone, where the Bills have previously been hesitant to use Cook. Now that the rookie has proven himself to the coaching staff, I expect he could take over Murray’s role from a season ago and more.
Not only do I expect Cook to lose some rushing share to Davis moving forward, but the total rushing volume for the team may see a dip. The Bills just added Amari Cooper in a trade with the Browns. It’s a sign that the Bills are aware of the excessive reliance on the run and need to bring in reinforcements to bolster their passing game. I don’t expect the Bills to suddenly become one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league, but if their rushing volume declines by a few attempts a game, and Davis has earned a few extra carries a game, Cook’s volume will be much less appealing to fantasy managers.
Cook is still valued ahead of a mid-2025 1st round pick. Even though Cook is still fairly young, rebuilding teams should now be rebuilding around running backs that have extremely short primes in the NFL. In a deep 2025 running back class, I’d much prefer a chance at an incoming rookie who’s in line to start right off the bat than Cook. For contending teams, there are a number of veteran rushers who are valued well below Cook who I think will be much more helpful for title runs over the next two years. That includes veterans such as Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon.