It’s time for week five of the NFL season to kick off, which also means we finally have some bye weeks. For one of the first times this year, even managers who aren’t plagued by the injury bug will be forced to make some tough sit/start decisions. The players that will be eligible for this list are all close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 or WR2/RB2 based on ESPN’s PPR projections.
Wide Receiver
Start
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs NYG
ESPN Projection - WR29
While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been fairly inconsistent this year, after his breakout in week two, he’s been consistently getting on the field over Tyler Lockett. This is exactly what we’ve been waiting for, as the talent for Smith-Njigba isn’t in question. Even after scoring 13.1 points last week, he’s being projected as the WR29 on ESPN.
Last week, Smith-Njigba ran the most routes on the Seahawks (57) and drew 12 targets, which was tied with DK Metcalf. The Giants are a mediocre defense as well, allowing the 18th most fantasy points (129.4) to wide receivers. Based on the talent Smith-Njigba has and the usage he’s seeing, he’s a must-start for me.
Amari Cooper @ WAS
ESPN Projection - WR28
Amari Cooper didn’t look great last week, only scoring 7.5 points, but he’s still seeing a ton of volume. Last week Cooper drew eight targets, the issue is that he was only able to turn it into four catches. However, the matchup against the Commanders is fantastic and should result in a bounceback.
This year the Commanders have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to wide receivers (191.3) which will help Cooper a ton. On top of that, PFF’s WR/CB matchup tools grades this as a “good” matchup giving Cooper an 82.4 grade which is only 0.6 points behind Nico Collins. Follow the targets and in a good matchup we should finally see Cooper turn them into points.
Sit
George Pickens vs DAL
ESPN Projection - WR28
Justin Fields is getting better every single week but he’s yet to throw the ball 35 times. Last week was also his first time this year throwing the ball over 300 yards. I just still can’t project out Fields as a quarterback that provides a ton of passing volume to his wide receivers. Looking ahead to his matchup, this is a very average situation.
The Cowboys have allowed the 17th most fantasy points to wide receivers (130.5) does have a “good” PFF grade at 80. That said, this week is very tricky for receivers, so if you need to start Pickens in the flex, I don’t hate it. He’s just too volatile to make my top 24 this week which is typically where I want to be pulling my starters from.
Michael Pittman Jr. @ JAC
ESPN Projection - WR23
Sitting Michael Pittman Jr is a take based solely on the fact that Anthony Richardson will be back. Richardson is supposed to be the Colts future but he’s looked horrific as a passer at least for fantasy football. There’s no consistency and that’s especially bad when his volume is already low due to his rushing ability.
This year Pittman hasn’t scored more than eight points with Richardson and that 17.3 point game was with mainly Joe Flacco. Even in a solid matchup I’m not starting Pittman until he proves that he can score points with Richardson under center.
Running Back
Start
James Conner @ SF
ESPN Projection - RB21
Out of all the players on this list, James Conner is my strongest take by far. I’m not sure if this is a mistake or if I’m just missing something but RB21 makes no sense. Conner had a bad game in week three but bounced back to score 18.3 points in week three. For someone that’s averaging 15.3 PPG I don’t see how you can even leave them outside of the RB1 conversation.
It’s not like the matchup against the 49ers is horrible either, as they’ve allowed the 14th most points (95.1) to running backs this season. The Cardinals offense hasn’t been great recently, mainly due to Kyler Murray’s poor play, but they have too much talent to let it continue. I have Conner as my RB8 on the week, so please don’t think about sitting him just because ESPN projects him out poorly.
Najee Harris vs DAL
ESPN Projection - RB21
With bye weeks finally starting, RB2 rankings have become gross this week. Even though Harris is only averaging 10.3 PPG, he should have a pretty good situation in week five. Jaylen Warren is still banged up, and Arthur Smith’s favorite player, Cordarrelle Patterson, is injured as well. The opportunity is all there for Harris, which is all you can ask for in this range.
The Steelers are taking on the Cowboys, which is actually a great matchup for Harris. The Cowboys have allowed the third most points to running backs this season (123.6), making this a spot for Harris to have his best game of the year. It’s not the most exciting play in the world, but all the stars align for him in week five.
Sit
Javonte Williams vs LV
ESPN Projection - RB20
I’m a little confused on why Javonte Williams is being ranked as the RB20, despite averaging 7.7 PPG. Last week was a step in the right direction as he had 4.8 YPC on 16 carries but on the season he still has a 3.2 YPC mark. It’s not like the Broncos offense has been great either which is typically a bad idea.
I will say the Raiders are a pretty good matchup, as they’ve allowed the 7th most points to running backs this season. That said, the Broncos have an implied team of 19.25 points this week, which is the 8th lowest total of the week. Even with the solid matchup, based on what we’ve seen, Williams is still unstartable.
Austin Ekeler vs CLE
ESPN Projection - RB27
I wasn’t a big fan of Austin Ekeler before but I’m definitely not starting him a week after he just suffered a concussion. Even more worrisome, Jeremy McNichols just scored 20.4 points last week which may make the Commanders even more hesitant to give Ekeler the same workload. While Ekeler has been pretty efficient through the air, it’s tough to start someone who’s only gone over four carries and three targets once this season.
To make matters worse, the Browns have defended running backs very well this year, allowing the 5th least points to running backs (73.5). Brian Robinson has been fantastic these past few weeks, and as the season goes on, I expect the Commanders to use him more like a three-down back.
Tight End
Start
Brock Bowers @ DEN
ESPN Projection - TE11
The tight-end position is such a crapshoot this year, so the main thing I look for is upside. Before his Brock Bowers 5.1-point game, he was even being viewed as a top option at tight end. Even with two weeks under eight points, Bowers is averaging 10.7 PPG this year, which puts him as the TE3 on the year. It would make zero sense to bench a guy like that with the other options you have at tight end right now.
Davante Adams more than likely won’t be playing next week as he’s been banged up and now wants a trade. If that’s the case Bowers immediately becomes the most talented receiver in that room. Looking at PFF’s TE Matchup tool it’s also worth noting that Bowers has a +3% advantage this week. The Broncos have also allowed the 14th most points to tight ends this year (39.7) making this TE11 projection even more strange.
Sit
David Njoku @ WAS
ESPN Projection - TE5
We’ve seen David Njoku in one game this year, where, granted, he was solid, scoring 8.4 points. That said, he’s still questionable, and it’s tough to bet on him in his first game back from an ankle injury. Especially with how bad the Browns have looked, if anyone is going to be productive, I expect it to be Cooper.
Looking ahead to week five the Commanders have allowed the 2nd least points to tight ends this season (19.6) which is pretty crazy. Going back to the PFF matchup tool, Njoku has an underwhelming advantage of -15% this week. Things are not looking bright for Njoku and I would advise you to keep him on your bench if you have the luxury to do so.
Start
Kyler Murray @ SF
ESPN Projection - QB11
Outside of a 28.5-point game in week two, I’ll admit Kyler Murray hasn’t been great. That being said, he’s not a guy that you can sit due to the rushing upside he possesses every single week. Once you get past the top six guys, the bottom tier of quarterbacks are typically players with a fair amount of risk or no upside at all. Murray is just too talented to let this performance keep going.
The 49ers defense has been great but I could easily see this becoming a high scoring game. The Cardinals have an implied team total of 20.5 points, which will allow Murray to score more than one touchdown for the first time since week two. The bottom line is if you drafted Murray, there’s no way you can afford to sit him, especially with byes coming on.
Sit
Daniel Jones @ SEA
ESPN Projection - QB13
Coming into the year I was fine drafting some Daniel Jones, in best ball leagues because I understood the upside he has on a week to week basis. That does not mean that I’m confident plugging him into my starting lineup almost ever. Jones has some “upside” but that’s about 18 points and his floor is under 10 points.
It’s not like the Seahawks are a good matchup either as they’ve allowed the 9th least points to quarterbacks this year (58.8). I love Malik Nabers and all but even he can’t drag Jones to being startable. Please do not start Jones, especially in this matchup.