After each week I’ll be looking at some of the most significant movers in Dynasty value. Dynasty fantasy football is about playing the long game, but weekly performances and factors such as injuries, scheme changes, etc. can have some very drastic impacts on the Dynasty values of players.
I’ll give you some context to ensure you can jump on the risers before they hit their peak and the fallers before they hit their floor.
Generic “Buy Low, Sell High” type analysis misses a lot of the underlying context that’s valuable to fantasy managers. Sometimes, that big performance is a time to buy as the player is rising, and sometimes, that dud of a game is a time to sell as the player starts their descent to fantasy irrelevance.
All values are based on Keep Trade Cut valuations. Although every league is different, KTC provides a good generalization of how fantasy managers value players.
Risers
D’Andre Swift – RB
Chicago Bears (Sell)
Swift had a great game in Week 4, putting up 165 total yards and a touchdown. That performance had him rise from RB49 to RB34. This comes after a three-week stretch to start the season where he managed only 68 rushing yards on 37 attempts. This is exactly what you get with Swift, some big games where he breaks off a long run or two which leads to a good fantasy performance, sandwiched around games where he provides nothing from a fantasy perspective.
Despite Swift having a great game, it’s becoming clear that the leash is shortening for him as the lead back. Roschon Johnson received the only running back carry within the 5-yard line this week. Swift isn’t going to be the recipient of goal-line carries, so unless he breaks off a big chunk run that goes to the house, you’re relying on pass-catching and carries between the 20s.
I think Khalil Herbert and Johnson will continue to eat into Swift’s touches even more as the season progresses, and this could be your best opportunity to sell high. Based on his RB34 value, it’s possible to acquire a 2025 mid-second-round pick for Swift. With this being a very deep running back draft incoming, I’d be willing to sell Swift for a late 2025 2nd.
Dontayvion Wicks – WR
Green Bay Packers (Buy)
Wicks had his breakout game in Week 4, and it coincided with Jordan Love returning from his knee injury and Christian Watson going down with an ankle injury. Both of those factors will lead to a strong outlook for Wicks moving forward. He’s moved from the WR59 heading into Week 4 to the WR46 now. That is still way too low.
Every time Wicks gets an extended look he performs well. This is a Packers offense that was able to perform well with Malik Willis at quarterback. Now that Love is back we should see the high-powered offense from the 2nd half of last season. That means plenty of touchdown opportunities for Wick, who already has 3 so far this year.
Wicks should be the favorite to be the 1B option in this passing attack behind Jayden Reed and the top receiver lined up outside. If he performs well again with Watson injured, I think he’ll run away with the starting job in the future.
Another big performance could push Wicks into low-end WR2 value territory. With Wick currently being valued behind receivers with much lower ceilings like Josh Downs and Khalil Shakir, now is the time to buy.
Fallers
Travis Etienne – RB
Jacksonville Jaguars (Sell)
Etienne still holds value due to name appeal, but it looks like the former 1st round pick is on his way to running back mediocrity. After another disappointing finish, Etienne is down from RB11 to RB16. RB16 is generous for a back that has been inefficient and seen a decreasing share of the snaps. It’s clear that the Jaguars don’t see Etienne as a workhorse even when he is performing based on their insistence on giving Tank Bigsby an extended run.
At his current value, you can still expect to receive a 2025 or 2026 late-rounder.
If you can manage a 2025 1st as a rebuilding team, that is a great deal. For contenders, there are good pivots as well. Montgomery and Mixon have both looked very good this year, provide more job security than Etienne, and are both valued lower than Etienne. They may not be as young as Etienne, but it’s certainly possible that both of them outlive Etienne as a productive fantasy asset, with Etienne only having one season left on his deal.
Ja’Lynn Polk – WR
New England Patriots (Buy)
Polk should not be dropping in value right now. After Week 4, he dropped from WR48 to WR55. This comes in a week where he was on the field for a season-high 83% of snaps and saw a season-high seven targets. He is clearly playing his way into the WR1 role for this team with his solid route running and good separation downfield.
The counting stats are what is depressing Polk’s value. He only managed three catches and 30 yards this past week despite being targeted heavily. That’s a result of an offense that has yet to find any groove under journeyman Jacoby Brissett and playing a tough defense in the 49ers.
Polk is primed to see a rookie breakout sooner than later with his extended run. If Maye gets the start in the next few weeks and finds a good connection with Polk, his value could skyrocket in value. I think that’s a very likely scenario to happen in the next few weeks and you’ll be happy you spent a 3rd rounder or even a future late 2nd rounder to get him before that happens.