We are one day away from Sunday so let’s dive in and set those lineups. In order to help you do so, I’m going to share the top 24 quarterback and tight end rankings I constructed through statistical analysis, matchup data, sportsbook data and film. On top of that I’ll also share my must start player who is close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 or WR2/RB2 based on ESPN’s PPR projections.
Week 4 Quarterback Rankings
Excluded - Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones
Tier 1
1. Josh Allen @ BAL
2. Lamar Jackson vs BUF
3. Kyler Murray vs WAS
4. Jalen Hurts @ TB
Tier 2
5. Jayden Daniels @ ARI
6. C.J. Stroud vs JAC
7. Joe Burrow @ CAR
8. Patrick Mahomes
Tier 3
9. Baker Mayfield vs PHI
10. Justin Fields @ IND
11. Anthony Richardson vs PIT
12. Jordan Love vs MIN
13. Derek Carr @ ATL
Tier 4
14. Brock Purdy vs NE
15. Sam Darnold @ GB
16. Jared Goff vs SEA
17. Caleb Williams vs LAR
18. Geno Smith @ DET
Tier 5
19. Aaron Rodgers vs DEN
20. Andy Dalton vs CIN
21. Kirk Cousins vs NO
22. Trevor Lawrence @ HOU
23. Deshaun Watson @ LV
24. Matthew Stafford @ CHI
Must Start: Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes @ LAC
ESPN Projection - QB10
For the FTR start of the week, the players that will be eligible for this list are all close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 based on ESPN’s PPR projections. That being said I have no clue how we got to this discussion with Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are simply not passing the ball as much which really hurts Mahomes since he doesn’t have a ton of rushing upside. That said I can’t imagine not starting him if he’s on your roster.
The matchup against the Chargers is at a respectable 40 point over/under and a lot of the game script will depend on if Justin Herbert plays. The bottom line is that Mahomes has too much upside with his arm to risk putting him on your bench.
Week 4 Tight End Rankings
Excluded - Jake Ferguson, Theo Johnson
Tier 1
1. George Kittle vs NE
2. Dalton Kincaid @ BAL
3. Brock Bowers vs CLE
4. Travis Kelce @ LAC
5. Kyle Pitts vs NO
Tier 2
6. Sam LaPorta vs SEA
7. Dallas Goedert @ TB
Tier 3
8. Colby Parkinson @ CHI
9. Dalton Schultz vs JAC
10. Mark Andrews vs BUF
11. Isaiah Likely vs BUF
Tier 4
12. Mike Gesicki @ CAR
13. Noah Fant @ DET
14. Pat Freiermuth @ IND
15. Zach Ertz @ ARI
16. Cole Kmet vs LAR
Tier 5
17. Hunter Henry @ SF
18. Cade Otton vs PHI
19. Jonnu Smith vs TEN
20. Tyler Conklin vs DEN
21. Brenton Strange @ HOU
22. Chig Okonkwo @ MIA
23. Greg Dulcich @ NYJ
24. Juwan Johnson @ ATL
Must Start: Tight End
Sam LaPorta vs SEA
ESPN Projection - TE11
It’s crazy to think that we’re having this discussion in week four, but here we are. According to ESPN's projections, Sam LaPorta has officially dropped to a low-end TE1. On paper, LaPorta looks awful, averaging 5.8 PPG this year, but who are you going to start over him? Once you get outside the top tier of tight ends, it’s really just a crapshoot, so why not take the player with the most upside?
Facing off against the Seahawks isn’t a great matchup either as they’ve allowed the 7th most points to tight ends (37.2) this season. The main argument is still the fact that LaPorta was being drafted as the consensus TE1-2 just a few months ago. All he needs is one big game to fly right back up rankings.