After each week I’ll be looking at some of the most significant movers in Dynasty value. Dynasty fantasy football is about playing the long game, but weekly performances and factors such as injuries, scheme changes, etc. can have some very drastic impacts on the Dynasty values of players.

I’ll give you some context to ensure you can jump on the risers before they hit their peak and the fallers before they hit their floor. Generic “Buy Low, Sell High” type analysis misses a lot of the underlying context that’s valuable to fantasy managers. Sometimes that big performance is a time to buy as the player is rising, and sometimes that dud of a game is a time to sell as the player starts their descent to fantasy irrelevance.

This week I’ve decided to highlight the risers and fallers that I think you should buy into. With passing volumes down and offenses just starting to get things together across the league, we need a bit more positivity in the fantasy football space.

Stock Up

Amari Cooper – Cleveland Browns (Buy)

Amari Cooper has had an interesting season in terms of his KTC valuation. He went into the season as the WR38 and then dropped as far as WR48 before Week 3. After a strong Week 3 performance he returned to WR44, still 6 spots behind where he started the season. He’s not a riser based on the beginning of the season, but he qualifies here as he’s seen his stock increase since last week.

Two 2.6-point half-PPR finishes to start the season certainly wasn’t what managers were looking for. Looking simply at the finishes is disappointing, but underlying those tough finishes are a combined 17 targets across the two games. Cooper doesn’t look any slower, he doesn’t look less like a great receiver, but he does have an incompetent quarterback that’s significantly hurt him. I do expect that incompetent quarterback to settle into the new offense somewhat, and that’s what we saw a bit of in Week 3. While he is still the quarterback, Cooper could have the occasional dud of a week, but averaging just under 10 targets a game means most weeks he’ll still be a decent producer.

The reason I have Cooper marked as a buy is simple – he will have a new quarterback by the end of the season. This offense has been historically bad, even for the Browns. Yes, their current quarterback has lots of guaranteed money left on his deal, but this is the NFL. Teams are going to go with the passer that gives them the best chance to win. Jameis Winston is not just some backup quarterback, he’s a former 5000-yard passer. We saw last week in Carolina that an aging former starter can provide a much steadier presence than a player who’s lost the locker room.

When Winston takes over as the starting quarterback we’ll see a resurgence in the Browns’ passing game similar to what Joe Flacco did a season ago. That means an Amari Cooper who can provide high-end WR2 or even WR1 numbers on a weekly basis as the top pass catcher in a pass-heavy offense.

Marshawn Lloyd – Green Bay Packers (Buy)

It may be a surprise to you that Lloyd is being highlighted in the “risers” section this week. It was a surprise to me as well. Lloyd has seen a similar value pattern to Cooper – started off high, dropped off early in the season, and is now seeing a bit of a revitalization. He came into the season the RB36, was as low as RB45 ahead of Week 3, and is now back to RB41. He’s managed to move up in value despite spending the week on the IR.

Josh Jacobs has seen his snap percentage decrease each week of the season. He started at 73% in the opening week, followed by 67% then only 52% last week. His efficiency has also trended down, from 5.25 yards per carry in the opening week to 4.72 and then 3.07 this past week. The efficiency issue isn’t exactly new. In 3 of the past 4 years, Jacobs has had a yards per carry under 4.1. That’s replacement-level efficiency. The argument for Jacobs has always been his heavy workload. Even last year when he struggled immensely with efficiency, he was on the field for 75%+ of snaps in 9/12 of his healthy games.

That’s not who Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur is. Both through his direct comments in interviews ahead of the season and his past actions we’ve seen LaFleur use multiple running backs all throughout his coaching career. Jacobs doesn’t seem to be getting a different treatment. If Emanuel Wilson, who started the season as the fourth running back on the Packers depth chart, can take up to 40% of snaps away from Jacobs and get more usage in the passing game than him, then Marshawn Lloyd could become the 1B back in this backfield.

In college, Lloyd showed a level of explosiveness that Jacobs has never had. He’s shown his ability to create big plays as a pass catcher. When he returns I expect him to overtake Wilson easily for the number two running back job and play much more efficiently than Jacobs.

Lloyd may not be a weekly startable option at any point this season, but at his age with a few explosive plays, and a few games where he plays equal snaps to Jacobs, his value will skyrocket. Right now you can probably get Lloyd for a 3rdin some leagues, and a late 2nd in almost all leagues. By the end of the year, he’ll be worth an early 2nd at the least.

Stock Down

Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins (Buy)

Tagovailoa’s stock has dropped from QB16 to QB27, an insane drop for a 26-year-old quarterback who just signed a giant contract extension. Right now you have an opportunity to buy a player that’s dropped value almost exclusively due to an emotionally charged response by managers.

It’s extremely uncomfortable to watch a player get knocked out on the field, especially one who has had it happen already before. The truth is a lot more uncomfortable. There are many players in the NFL who have had as many or more concussions than Tagovailoa. Yes, any player with a history of concussions is prone to more head injuries in the future, but Tagovailoa is far from alone in that group.

Tagovailoa has indicated he has no intention of retiring. It seems from his reintroduction into team activities (outside of practice, obviously) that his symptoms are not very extreme from this concussion. That is all great news for his fantasy prospects, but the emotional response from managers is much stronger than these rational points. Especially if you’re in a rebuild, take this opportunity to buy a QB2 for QB3 prices while you still can.

Tank Dell – Houston Texans

Dell may be my favorite buy-low candidate right now. I was a big fan of his heading into the season, and the struggles through the first few weeks have pushed his price down to a place where I’m excited to buy.

Dell went into the season as the WR20, a totally reasonable valuation for a player who had 4 top-12 finishes in only 10 games as a rookie and is attached to an elite young passer. He is now down to WR29 based on a couple of tough games to open the season. One or two breaks his way and Dell could absolutely still be valued at WR20. Against the Chicago Bears in Week 2 he had a pass that he seemed to lose in the lights that could have been taken for a very long touchdown. That play alone would have him much higher than he currently is.

Dell has seen a number of factors lead to low production early in the season. He’s had a few miscommunications with quarterback CJ Stroud and he’s had a couple of uncharacteristic drops. We’ve seen fellow Texans wide receiver Nico Collins continue to look like the top wide receiver we saw down the stretch last season, and newly acquired players Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon have been involved early.

Diggs is the main competition to touches for Dell this season. Collins will get his share as the top receiver, but there is room for a 2nd strong fantasy producer in this offense. I still believe Dell will be that 2nd producer over Diggs.

Diggs saw an increased role in the game against his former team the Minnesota Vikings. It’s not a secret that teams like to utilize that extra spark of players showing up against their former teams. Before that game, Diggs had received 6 targets in each game, not far off Dell’s average this season. His targets also came almost exclusively in the short area of the field. Dell on the other hand has the ability to win downfield at a much better rate. Those are much more valuable targets than Diggs’ underneath opportunities.

This is also Dynasty. Diggs is not a long-term part of Houston’s plans. He is on a one-year deal and will likely leave following this season. Even if he does re-sign in Houston, he’s a receiver in his 30s and that’s a category of player that often sees a drastic fall in production year over year.

It is going to be a priority for this team to get Dell involved over the next couple of weeks as everyone has seen what he can do to opposing defenses when he gets in his groove. Take advantage of this low price for the short time that it’s here. It may be the lowest price you pay for Dell for the next 5+ years.