It’s time for some week three football and I’m fired up. Below I’m going to help you keep that hard start or get back on track with some of the biggest start/sit decisions of the week.The players that will be eligible for this list are all close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 or WR2/RB2 based on ESPN’s PPR projections.
If you have any sit/start questions that I can’t get to on Reddit or want personalized team advice, click the link below and shoot me a message. It’s 100% free so why not? Let’s not waste any more time and hop right into the top sit/starts for week three of the fantasy football season!
Wide Receiver
Start
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs MIA
ESPN Projection - WR23
I feel like we’ve been waiting for this day to come for almost an entire year now. After coming into the NFL as an incredible prospect, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was stuck behind Tyler Lockett. This past few however, Smith-Njigba ran 2 more routes and played one more snap than Lockett. What’s important though is that Smith-Njigba had 16 targets.
Even though the game shouldn’t be a shootout, Smith-Njigba should have a favorable matchup with DK Metcalf taking on Jalen Ramsey. If you look at PFF’s CB/WR matchup tool, Smith-Njigba grades out as “Good” for the week with a 73.9 score. Smith-Njigba has finally arrived, and he’s a must-start going forward.
Jaylen Waddle @ SEA
ESPN Projection - WR38
Even without Tua Tagovailoa, I’m not dropping Jaylen Waddle outside of my top 24. If you have another option in a shallow league, I understand it, but my ground for starting a player is that they’re a top 24 player. In eight games without Tagovailoa, Waddle has 4.67 receptions and 56.62 yards per game. This isn’t great, but an average floor of almost 10 points isn’t bad at all with his ceiling.
On top of that, the matchup for Waddle is fantastic. For this, I’m going to take a look at Fantasy Points WR Coverage Matchup Tool, which looks at a player’s effectiveness versus an opponent’s scheme usage. For week three, Waddle ranks 4th in expected fantasy points per route run (0.61). Please don’t fade Waddle out of your top 24 this week.
Sit
Rashid Shaheed vs PHI
ESPN Projection - WR25
I can almost promise you that the moment you put Rashid Shaheed in your starting lineup he’s going to bust. Of course I don’t actually mean that but no one knows when Shaheed is going to give you 24 points or four points. His role on the Saints is to be a deep threat and most of the time he does his role well without catching a 70 yard touchdown. The risk is just too great to make up for the reward at cost.
If you want to put Shaheed in as a low end WR3 this week that’s totally fine by me. The thing is we know what Shaheed is, he has the exact same skillset as the last two years. In those two years he’s never had more than 11 PPG. Please don’t start Shaheed close to the WR24 range just because he’s had two deep touchdowns in the last two weeks.
Keenan Allen @ IND
ESPN Projection - WR24
Having Keenan Allen as the WR24 on ESPN is bizarre to me. Coming off an injury as a 32 year old receiver, aren’t we going to be a little worried about that? It’s not like the Bears have been crushing either, in fact their offense has been terrible so far. Caleb Williams may provide a ton of upside later in the year but right now he’s a quarterback that hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass yet.
For the most part you’re chasing those 11 targets in week two and that makes sense. That being said though there’s still so much target competition with D. J. Moore and Rome Odunze. In a game with a 43.5 point over/under, I just don’t see it with Allen.
Running Back
Start
J.K. Dobbins @ PIT
ESPN Projection - RB26
At some point, the J.K. Dobbins disrespect will stop. It doesn’t seem like it’ll be this week, though. I understand that the Steelers are a very tough matchup, and I’ve moved Dobbins to my RB20, which is lower than most weeks. ESPN having him outside their top 24 back doesn’t make sense to me, though.
Even though the over/under for this game is at 35.5 points, I’m hoping it makes the Chargers rely on Dobbins more. Right now, Dobbins has had a fairly limited workload, so I’m hoping they are forced to unleash him in this kind of game script. Either way, with how bad the running back landscape is, there’s no way Dobbins isn’t a top 24 back.
David Montgomery @ ARI
ESPN Projection - RB30
Normally I’m not a big David Montgomery fan but this seems like the one week he’s a lock to finish in the top 24. His value prop is scoring touchdowns, so why wouldn’t we assume he does so in week three? The over/under for this game is set at 51.5 points so there’s a very good chance Montgomery will see at least one goal line opportunity.
While I have Montgomery as my RB22, there’s no way I’m starting guys like Zamir White and Zack Moss over him. Unless I’m playing in a shallow league where I have better options, Montgomery remains my RB2 for week three.
Sit
D'Andre Swift @ IND
ESPN Projection - RB22
As a Bears fan I’m put through the pain and suffering of watching the Bears every single week. D’Andre Swift has looked very bad in the two weeks he’s played so far and that’s shown fantasy wise. I don’t care how good of a passer you are, averaging 1.3 YPC on a week is unbelievably bad. The offense is a mess and I need Swift to prove himself before he jumps back into the top 24.
It’s not like this game is going to be a shootout either, where Swift has a high chance of scoring a touchdown. 43.5 points is solid, but it’s not enough to make up for his abysmal running skills. The Bears offensive line looks horrible and I would be avoiding Swift until the team gets it together.
Carson Steele @ ATL
ESPN Projection - RB32
It seems like most sensible people are sitting Carson Steele but I wanted to touch on this topic because he’s a hot waiver add. For one if you grabbed Steele, you missed out on getting Samaje Perine even though he’s not great either. Steele is the between the tackles back that was an undrafted free agent and hasn’t scored a single fantasy points.
I’m not even really taking the matchup into account because there’s no way that Steele could be startable. Besides some training camp buzz, what has Steele done to prove himself? Please don’t fall into the trap and start Steele just because he’s the cool Chiefs running back to own.
Tight End
Start
Dalton Kincaid vs JAC
ESPN Projection - TE11
I understand that Dalton Kincaid hasn’t been very good in his first two games, but TE11 is wild. The tight-end market as a whole has been very odd, but let’s still start our studs. Don’t get cute and grab a tight end from the waiver wire because you’re sick of Kincaid.
The odd part is that it’s not like Kincaid was horrible last week, as he got more involved, scoring 7.3 points. Kincaid has four targets, which wasn’t great, but he also took a knee to the head early on, which may have hurt his performance. According to PFF’s TE matchup tool, Kincaid has the 2nd highest advantage at 42%. Please don’t do anything crazy and bench Kincaid this week.
Sit
Hunter Henry @ NYJ
ESPN Projection - TE14
The story of Hunter Henry is as old as time. He’ll come out of nowhere, explode for a game then disappear again. After his 18.3 point performance please don’t fall into this trap. It seems as if ESPN has him pretty fairly ranked but there wasn’t much else that stood out to me this week.
Henry is really only a viable play when he has touchdown upside, and he doesn’t at all this week. The Jets are a horrible matchup, as the over/under is 38.5 points. Don’t make a reckless decision and start Henry over any tight end who was a top-six guy coming into the year.
Quarterback
Start
Anthony Richardson vs CHI
ESPN Projection - QB13
Anthony Richardson has looked like an awful quarterback so far this season, but I could care less. This is the same guy that scored 26.1 points on nine completions in week one. The rushing upside for Richardson is so unbelievable that you just have to start him.
Even though Richardson was bad in week two, I’m not expecting him to throw three interceptions again. The Bears defense has looked good this year but I just expect that to force Richardson to run a lot. Even if that’s not going to work for the Colts, that’s great for my fantasy team. Having him outside the top 12 is just a wild projection.
Sit
Brock Purdy @ LAR
ESPN Projection - QB5
Without Deebo Samuel or Christian McCaffrey, I’m moving Brock Purdy down my rankings. This is a fair statement to me so I couldn’t tell you why ESPN has him in the top five for what seems like the first time ever. Even if Purdy was at full strength he just doesn’t have the passing volume or rushing upside to be put that high.
The over/under for this game is 44.5 points so it’s not like it’s going to be a shootout either. The Rams have been killed by the injury bug and I expect the 49ers to dominate them from the jump. The 7.5 point spread in favor of the 49ers confirms my thinking. After the first half, I see the 49ers running a lot of run plays which will really hurt Purdy.