After each week I’ll be looking at some of the most significant movers in Dynasty value. Dynasty fantasy football is about playing the long game, but weekly performances and factors such as injuries, scheme changes, etc. can have some very drastic impacts on the Dynasty values of players.  

I’ll give you some context to ensure you can jump on the risers before they hit their peak and the fallers before they hit their floor. Generic “Buy Low, Sell High” type analysis misses a lot of the underlying context that’s valuable to fantasy managers. Sometimes, that big performance is a time to buy as the player is rising, and sometimes, that dud of a game is a time to sell as the player starts their descent to fantasy irrelevance. 

Stock Up 

JK Dobbins – RB – LA Chargers (Buy)  

Dobbins entered Week 2 as the RB25 on Keep Trade Cut (KTC). That was already a huge rise from his pre-week one valuation as RB52. Now, Dobbins is being valued as the RB19. That value puts Dobbins just ahead of an early 2025 2nd round pick value. 

I admit this is a very risky bet, but I’m still considering Dobbins a buy candidate at this lofty price if I’m a contender. Dobbins looks like he hasn’t lost any explosiveness or top-end speed from his multiple lower-body injuries. His running has looked confident and healthy. The Chargers were expected to be a run-heavy team entering the season, but the effectiveness of that run game has exceeded all expectations early on. The offensive line continues to generate great running lanes for the running backs, and Dobbins is taking full advantage. 

Yes, there are injury concerns with Dobbins. If I’m a contender, though, a 2nd and a 3rd, or even two 2nds, is a small price to pay for a running back that could finish top 5 in fantasy scoring at the position this year. That kind of upside is hard to find at that price point, and concerns around Dobbins’ injury history are the only reason that price is available. An elite talent when on the field paired with a run-heavy offense and a dominant offensive line combine for one of the most exciting comeback stories in the NFL for JK Dobbins. 

Brian Thomas – WR – Jacksonville Jaguars (Sell) 

Thomas has been a steady riser since after his Week 1 performance. He exited Week 1 ranked WR25 before rising all the way to his value today of WR14. A 1st round pick of the Jaguars, Thomas showed flashes of his skill in each of the first two weeks of his NFL career. Thomas’ current valuation puts him ahead of fellow wide receivers Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Chris Olave and just behind the value of a 2025 early 1st round pick. 

While it’s good to see Thomas have some success early in his NFL career, he hasn’t done anything to ease the concerns I had entering the season. The chief concern I had was that Thomas has a limited route tree. He showed in his final year of college that he was an elite deep-ball specialist, but he didn’t show any versatility in his skills. 

Through two weeks, Thomas has 108 receiving yards and a touchdown on three catches on routes 20+ yards downfield. He’s shown that the deep route skills he displayed in college are translating effectively to the NFL. On passes less than 20+ yards downfield, however, Thomas has caught 2 of 4 targets with a drop for 33 yards across the two games. 

Thomas’ deep ball skills certainly give him some value, but with very little evidence of an ability to succeed in the short-intermediate areas of the field, I think his current value is way too high. I see Thomas being a low-end WR2 with spike-week potential. Wide receivers such as Waddle and Olave have shown much more well-rounded skillsets at the NFL level and are both under 26 years old still. 

A few weeks without a big deep ball catch for Thomas, which I expect there to be more of as defenses adjust to his downfield abilities, will see Thomas’ value drop significantly. For this reason, I think Thomas is currently at his peak value and is a great sell-high candidate. 

Stock Down 

Bo Nix – QB – Denver Broncos (Sell) 

Last week in this segment, I highlighted how, despite being a faller, Bryce Young was someone who should be sold at his QB25 valuation. Well, since that advice, Young had another disastrous start that led to him being benched, and he is now valued as the QB32. 

Yes, I’m pumping my own tires a bit here, but more importantly this shows the importance of knowing when to cut ties with a faller, against the conventional buy low/sell high thinking. And that’s why I’m highlight a quarterback in a similar situation to Bryce Young’s situation last week – Bo Nix. 

This isn’t the exact same situation as Young. Nix has only played 2 NFL games so far, opposed to the full season of film we had on Young. Nix won’t get the same leeway as Young from dynasty managers or the Broncos coaching staff. Young was the 1st overall pick in the draft and given just over a year to display his ability in the NFL, while Nix was the 12th overall pick and 5th quarterback taken in the 2024 NFL Draft. Nix is also more than a year older than Young despite being a rookie. Nix is guaranteed the starting job for this season, and for that reason, Dynasty managers should jump on this opportunity to still receive value in return for Nix. 

Nix started the season as the QB19 in dynasty value, according to KTC, but is now down to QB23. His value sits between an early and mid-2025 2nd round pick. 2025 features a deep class of running backs, and a pick in the top half of 2025 rookie picks could be a solid starter for you next year – something I don’t expect Nix to be by the 2nd half of this year. 

Nix is plenty experienced after five seasons of starting play in college. Entering the NFL, there were concerns about Nix’s ability to push the ball downfield, but in Sean Payton’s West Coast-style offensive scheme, there was hope that Nix’s accuracy could ensure the Broncos offense can move the ball. Through two games, the worries about pushing the ball remain, and his accuracy hasn’t looked nearly good enough, either. With two interceptions in each of his first two games and a completion percentage under 60%, there’s no silver lining to Nix’s early season play. 

Don’t be afraid to sell. If you find yourself worried about selling Nix at his floor, just think of where Young stood a week ago. The floor is much, much lower. 

Personal Dynasty Team Advice (Join it’s Free!)

Chris Olave – WR – New Orleans Saints (Buy) 

Before the season began, Olave was valued as the WR13. Now, following two weeks where the Saints’ offense has blown away all expectations, Olave is down to WR18. This is a change that is an absolute head-scratcher to me. 

I get the general idea that Olave has yet to put up top fantasy performances despite the Saints’ offense clicking. This is not an indication that Olave is not a central focus of this offense. 

Through the first two games, Saints quarterback Derek Carr has only attempted 12 passes in the 2nd halves, as opposed to 27 attempts in the first halves. This is due to two blowout wins that allowed the Saints to run the ball to close out games comfortably. While these are impressive performances, it isn’t expected that the Saints will be ahead by such comfortable margins each week. 

Fellow Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed also plays a significant role in Olave’s pedestrian showing over the course of two weeks. The speedster has accrued 169 yards on an outrageous 24.1 yards per catch. That’s an output that is entirely unsustainable. Defenses will start to gameplan more against the downfield threat of Shaheed, which will open up more downfield opportunities for Olave in turn. 

Olave’s yards per route run figure, which would take into account the decreased passing volume due to early season game scripts, is at 2.36 so far this season, well ahead of last season’s 2.07. Olave has not looked worse, and he isn’t being replaced in this offense. In his second game of the season, he managed 81 yards on four catches, despite the run-heavy game script, and was a yard away from a touchdown. If he gets in the end zone on that play, I guarantee his fantasy stock will be significantly higher than it is.  

Olave is due for a big performance in the coming weeks, and the buy-low window may shut very abruptly when that happens. I’d be willing to move a 2025 mid-late 1st and 2nd to acquire the potential breakout wide receiver ahead of Week 3.