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It's always funny (and risky) to make player projections just when the season starts and, in an exercise between sabermetrics and expectations, to know which players can stand out with their numbers.
While the season has just started, it's a good time to do it for the remainder of 2024. I've selected some players with stat lines worth considering, using sabermetric projections and their offensive starts this season. Here are nine ballplayers with surprising projections for 2024, seven hitters and two pitchers.
HITTERS
1. Ronald Acuña Jr, Braves
Numbers on April 5: AVG .250, O HR, 1 BR.
Projection: AVG of .318, 40 HR, 55 BR, WAR of 7.4
Let's start with the reigning National League Most Valuable Player (MVP), who is projected to be...the MVP again. Although off to a bit of a slow start, if Acuña achieves these numbers, he could take the award in a landslide. Acuña is projected to be the most valuable in all of baseball according to WAR (with Mookie Betts' permission). He is also projected to have another incredible season in power and speed and win the MLB batting crown.
2. Juan Soto, Yankees
Numbers at April 5: AVG .303, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Projected: 36 HR, 133 BB and 105 RBI, WAR of 6.3
The projected Most Valuable Player in the American League is the Yankees' new superstar, just ahead of teammate Aaron Judge (WAR of 6.1). He is off to such an overwhelming start that he was declared the American League MVP of the first week.
While Acuna is projected as the most complete player, Soto is projected as the best pure hitter in both leagues. Soto is also projected to lead the majors in bases on balls, as usual, and to be one of the two hitters with more bases on balls than strikeouts, along with Luis Arráez. He is also projected to reach a personal best in home runs.
3. Mookie Betts, Dodgers
Numbers at April 5: AVG .447, 5 HR, 11 RBI.
Projection: AVG. 300, 36 HR, 110 RBI WAR 6.1
Off to an explosive start, as always playing at a plus level, he leads the majors with five home runs, 16 hits, 11 RBI, 14 runs scored, 1.527 slugging percentage, .447 batting average, and a .553 slugging percentage. Projections for 2024 strongly believe that Mookie can once again be an MVP contender.
4. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
Numbers at April 5: AVG .286, 2 HR, 6 RBI.
Projection: AVG. 275, 39 HR, 115 RBI WAR 6.0
Ohtani is the reigning American League MVP, home run king, and member of the best power trio in the majors, along with Freeman and Betts. He already has a pair of home runs and four doubles, and if he keeps his mind clear of off-field controversies, he'll be in the fight for the MVP.
5. Aaron Judge, Yankees
Numbers at April 5: AVG .167, 1 HR, 4 RBI.
Projection: AVG. 270, 46 HR, 118 RBI WAR 6.1
Due to physical issues, Judge was prevented from having a full season in 2023. That was perhaps one of the causes of the Yankees' disappointing overall performance; however, despite missing 56 games, Aaron Judge was able to showcase his power and talent when it was his turn to take a turn.
He totaled 37 home runs, drove in 75 runs, and gave up 98 hits, 16 of them doubles. Now, with the possibility of having a full, injury-free campaign and protected in the lineup with a hitter of Soto's stature, MLB projects him as the MLB's all-time home run leader for the upcoming 2024 season.
6. Mike Trout, Angels
Numbers at April 4: AVG .273, 3 HR, 3 RBI.
Projection: AVG. 280, 35 HR, 98 RBI WAR 6.1
Trout is back. The three-time MVP with 11 All-Star Game call-ups looks like the Trout of old at the start of the 2024 season. He had three home runs in his first six games, including a whopping 473-foot homer, which was the longest of the young campaign.
7. Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres
Numbers at April 5: AVG .297, 3 HR, 6 RBI
Projection: AVG. 273, 38 HR, 103 RBI WAR 6.0
Tatis looks like a candidate once again for National League Most Valuable Player. The 25-year-old Dominican finished with 25 homers and 29 stolen bases and won a Gold Glove in right field in 2023 after missing all of the 2022 season.
PITCHERS
1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers
Numbers at April 5: 0-1, ERA 7.50, 7 K.
Projection: 12-5, ERA 3.40, 200 K's in 184 IP.
Everyone wants to see what Yamamoto can do in the majors, and if the projections are correct, the answer is "big things." While he had a disastrous first start, the second saw more of the pitcher than everybody expected. The Dodgers' new ace is projected to hit the 200-strikeout mark in his first season.
2. Tarik Skubal, Tigers
Numbers at April 5: 1-0, ERA 2.92, 15K.
Projection: 14-11, 3.20 ERA, 198 K
This pitcher is one of the reasons for the Tigers' strong first-week start. According to WAR, he is projected to be one of the top ten pitchers in the majors and has the second-best effectiveness among starters, behind only Strider.