Explanation of Grading/Eval:
Before getting into Carter Bradley’s eval, I wanted to give an explanation about how I grade QBs for any new readers. I grade QBs on the following: footwork, pocket presence, “playmaking,” short throw accuracy (0-15 yards), medium throw accuracy (15-30 yards), deep throw accuracy (30+ yards), throw on the run accuracy, success against pressure/blitz, arm strength, release, ball security, and top starter potential. I use a standard United States grading system for all of these grades and take an average, similar to a GPA (i.e. an A= 4, B=3, C=2, etc.). I determine these grades by watching what I consider the player’s 4 hardest matchups (if I can find 4 games to watch for them). I grade QBs’ footwork, pocket presence, “playmaking,” arm strength, release, ball security, and top starter potential during the season and initial in-depth watches. Then I’ll evaluate their short throw accuracy, medium throw accuracy, deep throw accuracy, throw on the run, and success against pressure/blitz during my third rewatch while charting their games.
While charting, I determine accuracy by assessing the passes’ vertical and horizontal accuracy for both on and off platform throws. I then decide if the verticality is an overthrow, high, accurate, low, or underthrow. I do the same for horizontality and decide if the throw was in front, slightly ahead, accurate, slightly behind, or behind. Throws that are considered accurate are counted towards the accuracy score numerator, which is divided by the total number of throws evaluated. The overthrow, underthrow, front, and behind numbers are tracked for throws that are “way off target,” for tracking purposes. (I’ll also track sacks, fumbles, deflections, pass interference calls, throwaways, drops, designed runs, and scrambles for perspective). The scale I use to grade these are all slightly different to adjust for difficulty.
For short accuracy, I use the following scale: A=80%, A-=75%, B+=70%, B=65%, B-=60%, C+=55%, C=50%, C-=45%, D+=40%, D=35%, D-=30%, F+=25%, F=20%
For medium accuracy, I use the following scale: A=75%, A-=70%, B+=65%, B=60%, B-=55%, C+=50%, C=45%, C-=40%, D+=35%, D=30%, D-=25%, F+=20%, F=15%
For deep accuracy, I use the following scale: A=70%, A-=65%, B+=60%, B=55%, B-=50%, C+=45%, C=40%, C-=35%, D+=30%, D=25%, D-=20%, F+=15%, F=10%
For throw on the run accuracy, I’ll use their accuracy from off-platform throws but will also apply multipliers of x1.5 to the medium throw accuracy and x2 to the deep throw accuracy to account for increased difficulty of completing the throw. After that, I take the totals together and use the following scale: A=75%, A-=70%, B+=65%, B=60%, B-=55%, C+=50%, C=45%, C-=40%, D+=35%, D=30%, D-=25%, F+=20%, F=15%
For success against pressure/blitz, I consider a “win” against a pressure or blitz if the QB gets any yardage back against either (unless they get 1 yard back on something like a 3rd and 15/have the drive come to a sudden stop). For this, I use the following scale: A=70%, A-=65%, B+=60%, B=55%, B-=50%, C+=45%, C=40%, C-=35%, D+=30%, D=25%, D-=20%, F+=15%, F=10%
For arm strength, I have to do some estimating or trust some reports, but I use the following scale based on how far a player can probably throw the ball at a pro day if they aren’t pressured and able to throw the ball as far as they can while still maintaining some accuracy: A=75 yards, A-=70 yards, B+=65 yards, B=60 yards, B-55 yards, C+=50 yards, C= 45 yards, C-40 yards, D+= 35 yards, D=30 yards, D-=25 yards, F+=20 yards, F=15 yards.
For ball security, I take the total number of passing and rushing attempts from a player’s season and divide it by the total number of INTs and fumbles to get the average number of attempts prior to committing a turnover. I use the following scale for this: A=125 attempts/turnover (TO), A-=100 attempts/TO, B+=75 attempts, B=60 attempts/TO, B-=45 attempts, C+=35 attempts/turnover, C=30 attempts/turnover, C-=25 attempts/turnover, D+=20 attempts/TO, D=15 attempts/turnover, D-=10 attempts/TO, F+=5 attempts/TO, F=1 attempt/TO.
After all of this, I use the overall score (or what would traditionally be their GPA) to consider their prospects in the draft as: Future All-Pro= 4-3.5, Top Tier Prospect= 3.5-3.25, Good Starter= 3.25-3, Good Role Player= 3-2.75, May Have a Future Role= 2.75=2.5, Needs Improvement to Contribute= 2.5-2.25, Unlikely to Contribute= 2.25-2, <2= Likely Not Worth Rostering.
I know this is a lot of information, but I wanted to give some information on how the grades are determined for new readers. So, let’s finally take a look at Carter Bradley!
Carter Bradley, South Alabama
Height: 6’3”; Weight: 218 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 23 years and 4 months
Class: RS Fifth-Year Senior
Overall Grade: 2.47 (Needs Improvement to Contribute)
2023 Games Charted: Southern Miss, Tulane, and James Madison (Could only find three games for him)
Totals from Games Charted:
Short Throw Accuracy on Platform: 80/108 (74.07%)
Short Throw Accuracy off Platform: 36/52 (69.23%)
Medium Throw Accuracy on Platform: 11/24 (45.83%)
Medium Throw Accuracy off Platform: 2/4 (50%)
Deep Throw Accuracy on Platform: 3/12 (25%)
Deep Throw Accuracy off Platform: N/A
Left Side of Field Accuracy: 45/82 (54.88%)
Middle of Field Accuracy: 25/32 (78.13%)
Right Side of Field Accuracy: 62/86 (72.09%)
On Platform, Way Off Target Throws (Vertical/Horizontal): 10/5 (3.33/1.67 per game)
Off Platform, Way Off Target Throws (Vertical/Horizontal): 1/0 (0.33/0 per game)
Sacks/Fumbles: 10/1 (3.33/0.33 per game)
Deflections/Pass Interference: 6/3 (2/1 per game)
Throwaways/INTs: 4/4 (1.33/1.33 per game)
Drops: 4 (1.33 per game)
Designed Runs/Scrambles: 0/9 (0/3 per game)
Success vs Blitz: 24/48 (58.33%)
Success vs Pressure: 46/82 (56.10%)
Footwork: B
Pocket Presence: B-
“Playmaking”: C-
Short Throw Accuracy: B+
Medium Throw Accuracy: C+
Deep Throw Accuracy: D
Throw on the Run: B+
Success Against Pressure/Blitz: B
Arm Strength: C+
Release: B
Ball Security: C-
Top Starter Potential: C+
Comp: AJ McCarron
Strengths:
Coming out of South Alabama, we have Carter Bradley. The last name isn’t unique but Bradley is the son of Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. If you watched a single broadcast of South Alabama’s games, you’ll be sure to know this fact with the announcers being sure to bring this up more than announcers brought up Braelon Allen’s age.
Bradley is the type of player that knows his assignment: pick up yards and try to keep the offense going. Bradley seems competent at reading defenses and can work through his progressions. He also does a good job navigating the pocket and knows when to step up in the pocket. In most cases, Bradley seems to have a good general awareness of when to bail from the pocket and can pick up a few yards on the ground.
Bradley has a pretty compact release, which was a great match for South Alabama’s offense that has a big emphasis on shallow crossing routes. Bradley has a consistent rhythm to his dropback and usually plays like he’s in control of the game. Bradley does a good job keeping his feet planted and getting his toes pointed towards his target when making throws from the pocket. Also, I wouldn’t call this a major strength, but Bradley has shown the ability to throw with different arm angles, adding another wrinkle to his game.
Areas of Improvement:
So, from the line of scrimmage to the 10-15 yard line, Carter Bradley is a very good player. However, there is more to the field than the first 10-15 yards from the line of scrimmage. From there, it starts to get messy.
I had the strangest experience watching Bradley when I first watched his Southern Miss game and thought, “oh they’re really pounding the short passes this game.” Then I saw the Tulane game and thought, “oh short passes again even while they’re down by this much?” Then I watched the James Madison game and realized that this is almost entirely all Bradley does.
It would be one thing if Bradley was coming from a Power Five school and had this issue with an overreliance on the short passing game. However, coming from South Alabama and relying on this playstyle against lesser competition is going to be a major red flag for teams. On that note, Bradley will also be in for a major adjustment period while adapting to more complex and faster defenses in the NFL.
In addition, while Bradley mostly wins in the short passing game, I was a bit disappointed with his inconsistent ability to properly lead his receivers. There were too many times where Bradley failed to hit his receiver in stride and took away YAC opportunities. I also have further questions about Bradley's versatility outside the pocket, as his throw on the run score was boosted due to the vast majority of them being near or behind the line of scrimmage. While Bradley does have good awareness to scramble upfield, his athleticism is lacking and just seems like he will primarily be a pocket passer at the next level.
From the pocket, Bradley can do a better job using his eyes to move defenders. Also, Bradley's heels can get a bit too close during his dropback near the end of his drop. Bradley also has a tendency to overstride during his throwing motion and sometimes even at the end of his drop; he could benefit from narrowing his base. Bradley additionally seems to have a tendency to trail back in the pocket and lose his good footwork when pressure is coming straight at him.
Bradley seemed to struggle recognizing delayed blitzes and stunts and had too many fumbles which may be in part due to his smaller hand size. Bradley does well with stepping up in the pocket with vertical movement, but could do a better job with horizontal pivots to maximize his protection. Bradley's arm strength is adequate, but he seemed to struggle getting the ball to the opposite side of the field or deep down the field without putting too much air on passes allowing defenders to adjust. This lack of arm strength also appeared in Bradley's release where he struggled to put zip on balls that desperately needed it.
Conclusion:
With Bradley likely going on day 3 of the draft and having decent qualities across the board, I wouldn’t be surprised if people try to force a Brock Purdy comp for him. The difference between Bradley and Purdy coming out of Iowa State was that Purdy did a good job getting the ball downfield whereas it remains to be seen if Bradley can do this on a regular basis. Bradley's biggest tests in the NFL will be limiting turnovers, particularly fumbles, and finding a way to get the ball downfield. At this time, it seems Bradley's highest ceiling may be a plus back-up that operates as a game manager.
Due to both having limited ceilings as starters due to being game managers that need to win in the short passing game, good mechanics, and limited arm and running ability, I have AJ McCarron as Bradley’s comp. Bradley may get a chance in the future to be a spot starter like McCarron did early in his career. Like McCarron, I think Bradley could keep his team in the game if the team focuses its game plan on short passing, which he specialized in this past year.
Current QB Rankings:
Caleb Williams, USC; Overall Grade: 3.22 (Good Starter)
Drake Maye, UNC; Overall Grade: 3.17 (Good Starter)
Jayden Daniels, LSU; Overall Grade: 3.17 (Good Starter)
Bo Nix, Oregon; Overall Grade: 3.17 (Good Starter)
JJ McCarthy, Michigan; Overall Grade: 3.06 (Good Starter)
Jordan Travis, Florida State; Overall Grade: 3 (Good Starter)
Michael Penix Jr., Washington; Overall Grade: 2.97 (Good Role Player)
Michael Pratt, Tulane; Overall Grade: 2.67 (May Have a Future Role)
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina; Overall Grade: 2.56 (May Have a Future Role)
Joe Milton, Tennessee; Overall Grade: 2.56 (May Have a Future Role)
John Rhys Plumlee, UCF; Overall Grade: 2.5 (May Have a Future Role)
Austin Reed, Western Kentucky; Overall Grade: 2.39 (Needs Improvement to Contribute)
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame; Overall Grade: 2.28 (Needs Improvement to Contribute)
Kedon Slovis, BYU; Overall Grade: 2.22 (Unlikely to Contribute)