Luther Burden III’s rookie season was not a true breakout, but it did set the table for a breakout in the near future. Without a doubt, he earned a bigger role in 2026-27, but it’s up for debate whether he will convert that opportunity into fantasy stardom, or merely settle in as a role player in the diverse Ben Johnson offense.
To determine what to expect from Burden, and what to do with my Luther Burden shares, I watched every snap from his rookie season. Here is the good, the bad, and the in between from his rookie season.
Strengths
Efficiency
Overall, Burden didn’t receive a ton of opportunities during his rookie season, but he was efficient with the chances he did get. In a crowded pass-catching corps, the expectation was never for Burden to immediately become a superstar.
To that end, Burden did his job, establishing himself as a player who belongs in the league and who can step into a larger role if the opportunity arises. His snap shares reflect the increased trust he earned over the course of the year.
Despite being only 97th in the entire NFL in routes run among wide receivers, Burden was 56th in EPA, 16th in yards after catch, and 3rd in yards per route run. To be clear, it’s easier to sustain high efficiency when your volume is lower, but it’s obviously encouraging that Burden is rewarding Ben Johnson for giving him chances.
Focus / Effort
Going into this season, the number one question about Luther Burden was what version of him the Bears would get. On the one hand, Burden was clearly always extremely talented and easily the best player in Missouri’s offense as early as his sophomore year. On the other hand, Burden worried scouts with his tendency to give up on plays or to show poor body language on the field.
Early on in the season, the Bears asked Luther Burden to pay his dues. He was involved on special teams, and his offensive snaps involved a heavy amount of blocking assignments and clear-out routes. If Burden failed to show the needed effort and attitude on these plays, he would likely be on his way to Ben Johnson’s doghouse.
Fortunately, Burden seemed locked in executing even these menial tasks the right way. He showed surprising effort blocking, and he hauled ass on his clear-out routes. Generally, he seemed to run his routes with the correct spacing and timing, which was certainly not the case in college.
For the moment, it appears the Bears got through to Burden, and that his dynasty owners can feel confident they avoided the worst-case scenario with him.
Versatile, Valuable Role
The Bears’ offense under Ben Johnson is quite diverse. It doesn’t exactly ask a single player to win reps against corners over and over. Rather, it’s a balanced attack that focuses on creating space by overloading defensive backs’ responsibilities. Which players are early in the progression, or which ones have shot plays dialed up for them, tends to be fluid and unpredictable over the course of the game.
As long as this is the Bears’ offensive game plan, it’s a bit of a double-edged sword for Burden. On the one hand, he didn’t get many chances to win reps in isolation against corners and make a case to be The Guy long term. On the other hand, he demonstrated the ability to execute a wide variety of concepts that result in high-value touches for fantasy football purposes.
The Bears activated Burden as a run-after-catch threat early and often, which racks up cheap points for owners in PPR leagues. He was their designated jet motion and pop pass guy, received opportunities on bubble screens, and was most successful with angle routes out of the backfield with blockers out in front.
Burden likewise got chances on underneath routes against zone coverage, out-breakers against off coverage, dig routes in the deeper-intermediate parts of the field, and shot plays over the top of the defense.
On his intermediate routes, his natural agility and the threat of his good-not-elite deep speed were enough to create easy separation on horizontally breaking routes. Though it’s worth noting Burden did struggle to decelerate on routes that required breaking back to the ball. On his deep routes, he showed good ball tracking and hands, resulting in some big plays.
Overall, the Bears asked Burden to catch the ball at all three levels of the field, with a hefty number of designed touches or shot plays dialed up for him. Even if he’s never a true alpha WR1 on his team, he’ll play a valuable fantasy role for a long time, so long as his snap shares creep up into full-time starter range.
I should note that his aDOT was quite low. At 7.67 air yards per target, it was 134th in the league among wide receivers with at least 100 routes. However, all year long he showed he can produce in the intermediate and deep parts of the field. This low aDOT is less a sign he’s limited and more a sign he’s receiving a ton of designed run after catch opportunities.
Run After Catch
While this was discussed a little bit in the previous section, Burden’s run after catch ability deserves its own shoutout. He’s an agile runner with the ball in his hands, has good vision to get into seams, and has really good contact balance for a wide receiver.
The Bears knew what they had in Burden, and they made every effort to get him going with designed run-after-catch plays. While he was generally unsuccessful on screen passes, he did get some chunk gains on angle routes out of the backfield.
Overall, dynasty owners can expect Burden to get even more designed usage if D.J. Moore ever moves on or has his role reduced, and even if not, he should see the field more often organically next year regardless.
Long-Term Opportunity
Nobody sane had massive expectations for Luther Burden’s rookie year coming into a crowded situation as a raw second-round pick. Keeping that in mind, Burden ticked every box you wanted to see from his rookie year in terms of earning trust and avoiding being pigeonholed into a slot-only or gadget role.
In the long term, I think he projects favorably as one of those flanker-slot hybrids that tend to be very productive for fantasy. Crucially, whenever the Bears eventually move on from D.J. Moore, I think the Bears are far better served expanding Burden’s role than they are investing in yet another player to come in and further crowd the room. This last point was not to be taken for granted going into Burden’s rookie year.
Weaknesses
Route running vs press
In general, Burden didn’t face much press coverage. He was moved around the formation frequently and was often in motion, which helped avoid outside press corners.
Regardless, those few times he was pressed at the line, Burden struggled to play through contact, and it caused him to get downfield late. In particular, this was a contributing factor to some of the troubles Caleb Williams had in the first three quarters of the Bears’ divisional round game against the Rams.
Scramble Drill
Burden frankly was not very effective in the scramble drill. He seemed not to have the best intuition for when to snap off his route and get into creation mode, and he didn’t have the best feel for how to create a throwing window for Caleb Williams with leverage.
With a quarterback who creates outside of structure as often and as effectively as Caleb Williams, this is a big missed opportunity for Burden. Comparatively, Colston Loveland was much, much more successful working the scramble drill and developed nice chemistry with Williams.
Chemistry with Caleb Williams
While Burden generally showed a better feel against zone coverage than I expected, he and Williams frequently had puzzling misses in which they weren’t on the same page. There were both misses where Williams thought Burden would sit, but he didn’t, and vice versa. While it’s hard to gauge conclusively, I’d argue that both players are equally to blame for these mistakes.
Hands Consistency
While Burden has good fundamentals as a hands catcher and made a few nice plays for Williams, particularly deep down the field, he did leave too many plays on the field. He didn’t have many outright bad drops, but he failed to come down with a lot of balls that, while not thrown perfectly, were very catchable. Making more of these plays would represent a major step towards becoming a WR1 for the Bears and for fantasy.
Projection and Verdict
Overall, I project Luther Burden as a high-end WR2 as soon as D.J. Moore vacates opportunities at the Z receiver position. He showed the effort and focus needed to earn Ben Johnson’s trust, and with his skillset it’s only a matter of time before he’s getting starter-level playing time. Once that happens, his designed target floor will shine in PPR leagues, and his many avenues to high-value touches will create a weekly ceiling. I do not project Luther Burden as a future real-life WR1, but some fantasy WR1 finishes are definitely in the upper end of his range of outcomes.
I can’t in good faith project Burden to become a real-life WR1 because all of his weaknesses are in areas where elite WR1s excel. Alpha WR1s consistently make tough catches to bail out slightly inaccurate throws, they work the scramble drill, they know how their quarterback thinks, and they punish isolated coverage.
I obviously can’t guarantee Burden will never improve in those areas, but the most probable outcome for him is a versatile complementary piece who is a crucial and productive cog in his offense. If I had to offer my two cents for who eventually emerges as the Bears' featured pass catcher, my money is still on Colston Loveland.
As far as what to do with Burden, current owners should absolutely hold him. If you’re an owner who might want to acquire Burden, I would argue your best bet is to package down to him and a premium draft pick. Naturally, use your best judgment in terms of who you’re giving up for that package and make sure any deal makes sense for the direction of your roster.