Capitalizing on late-season momentum, Colston Loveland has seen his dynasty value increase steadily down the back stretch of the season. Now that he has a year of NFL experience behind him, and his hype train will inevitably take off going into year two, the major question for dynasty owners is whether it’s worth paying up to acquire him.
To that end, I have watched every snap of his rookie season, and I’m going to break down the positives and negatives. Then, I’ll finish off by projecting what tier of fantasy asset Loveland will develop into.
Is he one of those cases where you should avoid paying for an already priced-in breakout, or one of those cases where you need to pay retail price now to get your hands on an asset that might be untouchable shortly into the 2026 season?
Tight End Fantasy Value
Before saying a word about Colston Loveland, we need to figure out what truly matters for tight ends in fantasy. For the most part, tight ends are inconsistent assets, and few are consistently important engines of your fantasy team.
For every Trey McBride or Brock Bowers, there are about twenty tight ends who show us exciting games, or even stretches of games, but who are not consistently involved in their offenses, and who end up being mediocre assets for your team overall.
For this reason, the point of this article isn’t to figure out whether Colston Loveland is a good NFL player. Spoiler alert, he’s already solid. The point of this article is to figure out whether Loveland has what it takes to be an annual difference-maker in fantasy leagues, something very few tight ends can actually be classified as.
For the dime-a-dozen tight ends, there are usually a few barriers that prevent them from fantasy stardom, namely efficiency, snap share, and priority in the passing attack.
Efficiency
Many tight ends don’t bring a vertical element to the passing game. While the most productive routes for fantasy tend to be in the intermediate parts of the field, many tight ends only do their damage in the short game. It’s incredibly hard to have a spike week game if each catch is in front of the second level of the defense.
Compounding this issue is that many tight ends bring almost nothing to the table as far as run-after-catch. Many of them, especially older ones, tend to catch the ball and fall down immediately.
To be a game-breaking fantasy asset, it is non-negotiable that a tight end either be very productive in the run-after-catch game, or catch the ball downfield, or both. Let’s talk about how Loveland fared in this regard.
High Value Targets
Watching Colston Loveland’s tape, the first thing that stands out is that he’s running routes with serious juice for fantasy football. He’s constantly being asked to run routes into the deeper intermediate parts of the field, often underneath clear-out routes or into wide-open spaces opened up by the other routes in the concept.
He easily could have made more big plays this season, except quarterback Caleb Williams had a tendency, particularly early in the season, to either force throws to covered players early in the progression, or to go straight into playmaking mode without getting to Loveland in the progression. This changed dramatically towards the end of the year, something I will discuss in detail when I break down Loveland’s priority in the offense.
Among 76 tight ends who ran at least 100 routes this season, Colston Loveland was 6th in average depth of target. He absolutely rewarded the Bears for throwing him the ball on valuable routes, as his total Expected Points Added was 5th among all tight ends.
I’d even argue Loveland’s role in the red zone has room to expand. Despite being one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL in terms of EPA, he was only 25th among all tight ends in routes run in the red zone. Expect Loveland to improve on his six touchdowns from his rookie season.
Overall, Loveland runs routes that are very valuable for fantasy, and is nothing at all like the short yardage compilers who populate the NFL ranks at tight end.
Run After Catch
Unfortunately, we do have to balance this praise with a negative to Loveland’s game. With one notable exception, Loveland’s run after catch was not a major factor in his rookie season.
Despite being 13th in receptions among tight ends, Loveland was only 21st in yards after catch. For a young tight end known for his movement ability, you would hope to see more. Recall that for many of the elite fantasy scorers at the tight end position, the first indicator of future stardom was their run-after-catch. This was notably how George Kittle broke out, and likewise how Tucker Kraft and Trey McBride announced themselves to the league.
To some extent, we could chalk this up to a paucity of run-after-catch plays called for Loveland, compared to somebody like Tucker Kraft, who gets frequent catch-and-run concepts called for him. On the other hand, these kinds of playcalls are typically earned, and for now, it’s tough to project Loveland to produce in this manner.
Snap Share
This part is pretty simple. Many tight ends are not full-service players, often coming off the field for blocking tight ends. Ask any Dalton Kincaid owner whether his elite yards per route run has won them a fantasy championship, and they’ll tell you to mind your own business. This was a big concern for Loveland coming into his rookie year. In the pre-draft process, he had a bit of an unfair reputation for being a pure receiving tight end who would be a negative value blocker.
To start, I’m happy to report that Colston Loveland cracked the rotation as a full-time player for the Bears down the stretch, despite playing in an offense with lots of mouths to feed.
Starting in Week 16, Colston Loveland became the “starter” between him and Kmet. With frequent snap shares above 80%, and even one game above 90%, we have to like the chances of Loveland remaining a full-time player as he continues developing.
He’s already earned a role as a full-time player on a good team with lots of mouths to feed, which is clearly a great indicator. In the Divisional Round loss to the Rams, he exited the game with a concussion. I am not certain if he was out-snapping Kmet before that point, but he was definitely very involved in the game plan.
12-Personnel
Even the most cursory glance at the above snap shares table would reveal that Kmet and Loveland must have shared the field frequently to accumulate snap shares well above 50% each.
In fact, the Bears employed formations with two or three tight ends 40% of the time over the course of the season. This is a very bullish signal for Loveland’s ability to stay on the field, especially because he’s also getting plenty of time in 11-personnel.
Blocking
One of the more criticized elements of Loveland’s game during the draft process was his blocking, but in my opinion, he’s always had some solid fundamentals. Even in his college tape, while Loveland certainly lacked a fair amount of play strength, he was very intentional about his pad level. He was used inline by Michigan in heavy formations, and was extremely careful to get below the defender’s pads and drive with his legs.
That didn’t necessarily make him a good blocker, as I noted he got tossed out of the club more frequently than you’d like, but it was clear the effort was never an issue.
Loveland’s attention to detail has served him well at the NFL level, where I would argue his willingness and effort have been very good, and the execution has not been overly limiting. He could certainly get stronger still, and sometimes his assignment makes a play on the ball carrier, but watching his tape, I didn’t get the impression he was holding back his offense. There were very few reps where he lost quickly.
Granted, I don’t think Loveland will ever be considered one of the very best blocking tight ends, but all we really care about is that his blocking is good enough to keep him on the field. He clears that bar comfortably.
Priority in the Offense
The rule of thumb for tight ends is that they have to be a top-two option in their team’s passing game in order to be an elite fantasy asset. For his part, Loveland is in a crowded, but also wide open, corps of pass catchers.
While fantasy owners tend to react negatively to crowded position groups, in Loveland’s case the more important detail is that nobody is clearly entrenched in front of him long term. D.J. Moore already had some bad vibes surrounding him last offseason, and that was before he loafed on a route that resulted in a game-losing interception with an NFC Championship berth on the line.
Rome Odunze could one day establish himself as a WR1, but at the moment, he’s a frustratingly inconsistent player, one who frankly has some work to do to avoid an eventual label as a draft disappointment.
This isn’t to say Loveland’s competition is weak, but rather that he controls his own destiny as far as becoming the featured pass catcher in this offense. Next, we’ll break down whether he made a strong case to become a featured option.
Mismatch Ability
Going into the draft, we heard a lot about Loveland’s ability to run routes like a wide receiver. On tape, linebackers clearly struggled to stay in front of him during his rookie season, but by the same token, I would argue it’s an exaggeration to say he runs routes like a receiver. Not that he needs to get to that level of effectiveness to become one of the elite pass catchers at tight end.
Loveland did line up out wide or in the slot fairly often, but he was rarely asked to route up corners. Nor should he be. He’s just not going to be faster than many second-level defenders. More importantly, he should be able to win with physicality against smaller players and with speed against bigger players.
As far as winning with speed and movement ability, I don’t quite see breakaway speed, but he can absolutely win his routes by changing direction more quickly than linebackers can. At that point, he’s fast enough to consolidate an advantage and maintain the cushion he earned. Loveland also did a better job of staying on schedule in his routes against physical defenders, instead of letting physicality disrupt him like I often saw on his college tape.
As far as beating smaller defenders with size, I think there is a lot of room for improvement here. Despite being nearly 6’6” in height, Loveland is a bit leaner than most tight ends. While he’s generally a hands catcher, he tends to catch the ball close to his frame rather than plucking it with his arms extended. Between these two factors, it’s easier to break up passes through Loveland’s leverage than you would like to see.
To be clear, Loveland won plenty of reps in traffic or through contact, especially on slants, but these parts of his game are currently holding him back from winning with leverage as often as many other tight ends. He’s maybe more NFL average at this skill, but definitely not bad.
On the bright side, Ben Johnson did a great job of getting Loveland matched up against linebackers. Between how often the Bears use heavy formations, and also what a problem Loveland would pose as a blocker against defensive backs, it’s not nearly as simple as lining up a corner across from Loveland in man coverage.
Rapport with Caleb Williams
I mentioned previously that Caleb Williams often didn’t get to Loveland in the progression, especially early in the season. Towards the end of the season, the opposite started happening. Williams found Loveland in the scramble drill, and he even forced tough targets his way in traffic.
Late in the season, there was really promising chemistry where Caleb would wait a beat for Loveland to break open against a slower player rather than taking his eyes off of him too soon. Williams also trusted Loveland enough to fire fastballs into his leverage, particularly on slants, including on “gotta have it” downs.
Zone Beating
During last year’s pre-draft process, I identified Loveland as the most advanced zone beater in his draft year’s crop of tight ends. I would argue his zone beating in short areas is actually an underutilized part of his game so far on the Bears.
On the one hand, this is because Loveland’s share of short routes directly trades off with how many high-value routes he’s running downfield. On the other hand, I would argue there is more room to turn Loveland into an “easy” button in the short areas of the field against zone.
This isn’t a criticism of Ben Johnson or Loveland, more so an acknowledgement that a PPR floor is in Loveland’s range of outcomes, depending on how this offense develops. The other side of the coin is that he might have less of a target floor if he needs to connect on deeper routes to produce.
Consistency / Hands
Loveland had only one drop on the year, so he was quite reliable, though it’s important to point out that there are balls that ideally he holds on to, even if they can’t be charted as drops.
This involves both the occasional case where he fails to hold on through contact, and other times he fails to reel in a ball that’s thrown off his frame.
Overall, Loveland was reliable with the easy stuff, but could stand to improve on bringing in the tougher plays. That’s not to say he didn’t occasionally also make some very impressive catches, including adjustments to balls off his frame.
Conclusion
I will be targeting Colston Loveland in all my TE-premium dynasty leagues at cost. I understand in some leagues he’ll be essentially unacquirable due to your league mates’ prospect crush.
In non-TE premium leagues, I would argue a year two breakout is priced in fully enough to not be worth paying retail price for him.
In those leagues where he is affordable, I’m bullish for a few important reasons. First, the snap share is already where I need it to be in order for him to develop into a great asset, and it has room to increase to a consistent 90% range, which would be in line with the elite tight ends around the league.
Second, he’s not only in an ambiguous pass-catching corps in which he could be a top two option, but I would argue right now he’s in the lead to be the first option in his passing offense at some point in the near future. I don’t think D.J. Moore is on the roster for much longer, and frankly I’d rather have Loveland than Rome Odunze at this point. Luther Burden looms as a wildcard in all this, but for my money, Loveland is the favorite to lead this group of pass-catchers.
Breaking this down a bit more, I’m confident Loveland will be the best zone-beater on the team for the foreseeable future. He’s also already becoming a favorite target of Caleb Willliams in the scramble drill, and he’s already early in the progression in concepts designed to create space for him.
Thirdly, his route tree is extremely valuable for fantasy scoring, with lots of potential for 15+ yard receptions and touchdowns.
I have two concerns with Loveland. Firstly, I project that he’ll be more inconsistent than tight ends who get run-after-catch plays drawn up for them, especially if Caleb Williams doesn’t continue developing. Secondly, he needs to improve at catching balls thrown into his leverage by boxing out and plucking balls with his arms extended. Defenders are too successful at playing the ball through his frame at this point.
In Superflex TE premium leagues, I would consider Loveland fair value for picks in the 1.02 to 1.05 range, but my preference would be to package a first-round pick at 1.06 or later with a second-round pick and/or a lesser tight end prospect to acquire him.