In week 12, only four of 14 games hit the over, with only 601 points scored compared to the projected 639. Only two of the top seven highest projected games hit the over, while the second-lowest projected total game (Seahawks/Titans) had the fourth-highest actual game total of the week.
Several players were injured last week, most notably Tee Higgins (concussion), Alvin Kamara (knee), Ashton Jeanty (ankle), and Baker Mayfield (shoulder). Those injuries put these players’ status for week 13 in question. And based on last week’s reports, there is a good chance we get returns from Bucky Irving, Josh Jacobs, and Joe Burrow.
We have arrived at week 13, and with no teams on bye and with a quarter of the week’s games taking place on Thursday and Friday, we are switching up our start/sit format a bit to include players from every game. Instead of breaking down each game, I will give you my favorite and least favorite plays of the week, still based on FantasyPros consensus rankings for single quarterback 12-team leagues.
My favorite picks will likely be at the very end (or outside) of the top-12 or top-24 of the positional rankings. It’s not a huge help to fantasy managers to suggest Patrick Mahomes, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja’Marr Chase, and Trey McBride are good plays. I am trying to look for guys who can outperform their consensus ranking, and maybe players you can lean on if your roster is hurting. Conversely, I am also looking for players who may not perform as well as their consensus rankings project.
As usual, the points-against data will come from FFtoday, and, when applicable, I may highlight some favorable and unfavorable cornerback matchups using PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings.
Favorite Quarterbacks
Bo Nix (QB11) – Coming off a bye, I expect the Broncos to try and get things going on offense, which starts with the quarterback. The Commanders, who are also coming off a bye, have allowed at least 25 points in five of their last six games, and are allowing the fourth-most points to quarterbacks over the past five weeks.
Trevor Lawrence (QB16) – While last week’s performance wasn’t pretty on paper with three interceptions, Lawrence also tossed three touchdowns and continued to see some production on the ground with five rushes for 29 yards. He now faces Tennessee, which has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past five weeks.
Least Favorite Quarterbacks
Caleb Williams (QB13) – Just on the outside of the QB1 rankings, Williams had a nice fantasy day in week 12, finishing with three passing touchdowns and no turnovers. In fact, Williams hasn’t thrown an interception in the last four weeks. But he now heads on the road to face an Eagles defense that has been playing better since their bye, allowing only single-digit scoring outputs in two of the last three games and forcing two interceptions. I think Williams will get a little rattled in this matchup, possibly turning the ball over multiple times.
Jared Goff (QB12) – Yes, Goff is at home in the cozy confines of Ford Field, but he faces a Packers defense that is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past five weeks. That includes forcing four interceptions and 11 sacks over that same time frame. When Goff gets pressured, we tend to see him make some poor decisions, and when these teams met in week one, Goff only threw for one touchdown, paired with one interception.
Favorite Running Backs
Jaylen Warren (RB16) – The Bills have been run all over recently, allowing the fourth-most PPR points to running backs over the past three weeks. Gainwell received a lot of work last week, but Warren still saw the majority of the carries even with a reduced snap share, possibly due to an ankle injury he sustained in week 11. I think the Steelers rely on their run game to control the clock and keep Josh Allen off the field.
RJ Harvey (RB19) – Part of getting the offense back on track also involves Harvey, who once again projects to have a majority of the work in the Broncos’ backfield. The Commanders are also allowing the most PPR points to running backs over the past three weeks. Coming off a bye, in the middle of an eight-game winning streak, and with a comfortable two-game lead in their division, don’t be surprised if the Broncos come out strong on offense against the Commanders.
Breece Hall (RB14) – Atlanta is allowing the fourth-most PPR points to running backs over the past five weeks. Hall has performed about as well as could be expected given his offensive environment, as well as having faced two bottom-10 matchups for running backs over the past three weeks. With Atlanta struggling, I expect the Jets to lean on Hall here to move the ball. I also think he gets even more involved in the passing game, as the Falcons have allowed the most receptions and receiving yards to running backs over that same five-week span.
Bucky Irving (RB20) – He has been out since week four, and all signs point to him being active and playing this week. It’s a nice spot to return, too, as the Cardinals are allowing the third most PPR points to running backs over the past three weeks. It’s unclear at this point whether Mayfield will be able to play, but either way, I expect the Bucs to give Irving as much work as he can handle, as he should be fresh and ready to roll.
Least Favorite Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr./Bhayshul Tuten (RB12/RB34) – You might see in some places that the Titans are a favorable matchup for running backs. But if you look a bit deeper, specifically over the past three weeks, they are actually allowing the fifth-fewest PPR points to running backs.
They have been run on by Woody Marks in week four (but held him in check in week 11), and by Jonathan Taylor twice this season (but who hasn’t?). That said, refer back to one of my quarterback selections with Lawrence, as I think they try to exploit the Titans through the air, as the Jags may struggle more on the ground than the rankings suggest.
Chase Brown (RB6) – This one brings me no joy, as I am a Brown manager who needs him to step up this week to keep my playoff chances alive. However, I am concerned with this matchup, as the Ravens have allowed forth-fewest PPR points to running backs over the past five weeks (and that number remains the same over the past three weeks).
The point here is, they have greatly improved their run defense since the bye. With Burrow returning this week, and presuming the Bengals' defense is horrendous again, I can see the Bengals giving Burrow the green light to sling the rock and connecting with his favorite weapon in Ja’Marr Chase to keep them in this game. Chase may still end up having a decent game, but RB6 is a little too much for my expectations.
James Cook (RB7) – Another guy ranked among the RB1s that I think may underperform expectations. The Steelers are allowing the seventh-fewest PPR points to running backs over the past five weeks, and though his volume has increased recently, I like what I have seen from the Steelers run defense as of late, and I don’t think it will be quite as easy on the ground for the Bills this week.
Josh Jacobs (RB18) – While he won’t carry an injury designation into this game, the matchup is still rough, as the Lions have one of the best run defenses in the league and have allowed the second-fewest PPR points to running backs all season. Additionally, Emanual Wilson has shown the ability to be a reliable option to back up Jacobs, and I would not be surprised if the Packers utilized both running backs a decent amount in this game, and more work for Wilson than Jacobs managers might like.
Favorite Wide Receivers
Michael Wilson (WR20) – The Bucs have been exploited through the air recently, allowing the most PPR points to wide receivers over the past three weeks. Wilson has emerged as a true weapon over the past couple of weeks with Marvin Harrison Jr. out, and the coaching staff has indicated that Wilson will continue to get more opportunities even once MHJ returns. I think he can finish as a WR1 again this week, even if MHJ comes back.
Courtland Sutton (WR27) – Sutton has taken a back seat to Troy Franklin over the past several weeks, being out-targeted 45 to 34 by the second-year wideout in the five weeks before their bye. However, I think the Broncos did some self-reflection over the bye week. The last three weeks have been pretty poor on the offensive side of the ball, scoring 19 or fewer points in each. I believe they look to get Sutton involved again, and this matchup against a Commanders team allowing the fourth-most PPR points to wide receivers over the past five weeks offers a nice way to make that happen.
Wan’Dale Robinson (WR17) – It looks like Jaxson Dart will probably return this week, and he would be wise to continue targeting Robinson. Robinson has double-digit targets in four of his last six games, including 14 last week. The Patriots are decent against the pass, though over the last three weeks, they have allowed the 11th-most PPR points to wide receivers. I also anticipate Robinson getting the more favorable cornerback matchup, as Christian Gonzalez normally lines up against the outside receiver.
Khalil Shakir (WR22) – Shakir had his highest target number of the season last week with 10, converting that into eight receptions for 110 yards. With Dalton Kincaid still out, Keon Coleman in the doghouse, and Joshua Palmer constantly in and out of the lineup with injury, Shakir will continue to be leaned on as Josh Allen’s main weapon. While I laid out above how the Steelers have been doing well against the run as of late, they have not been as successful against the pass, allowing the fifth-most PPR points to wide receivers over the past three weeks.
Least Favorite Wide Receivers
Jauan Jennings (WR28) – Jennings was the leading wide receiver for the 49ers last week, though he still came in third in targets behind George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. Ricky Pearsall continues to work his way back from his injury, and I think they will try to get him going more moving forward. The Browns have allowed the fewest PPR points to wide receivers over the past five weeks, and while Jennings is projected to have the easier cornerback matchup, I think the 49ers keep the ball in the hands of CMC and Kittle, which are better matchups against the Browns.
Jameson Williams (WR24) – Jamo was on a hot streak coming out of the bye until he was blanked last week against a very favorable matchup against the Giants. He faces an even tougher test against the rival Packers, who have given up just the third-fewest PPR points to wide receivers over the past five weeks. I think Goff will see plenty of pressure in this game, which may not allow for the deeper routes to develop. While I don’t think he goes without a catch again this week, I do not think he finishes as a WR2.
Nico Collins (WR10) – You would have to imagine the Colts acquired Sauce Gardner for interdivisional matchups like this. If you can neutralize the team’s best wide receiver, you make it more difficult for the entire team. Gardner is Player Profiler’s third-ranked cornerback, allowing just 6.1 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. I wouldn’t be surprised if Collins finishes as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 this week.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR23) – On the other side of the same matchup, Pittman Jr. faces an equally difficult matchup with Player Profiler’s second-ranked cornerback Derek Stingley, who has allowed just 6.4 fantasy points per game. I think that Collins and Pittman Jr. will finish in the same territory this week, despite their 13-spot ranking differential.
Favorite Tight Ends
Harold Fannin Jr. (TE17) – The absence of Fred Warner for the 49ers has made them a very favorable matchup for tight ends, and over the past three weeks, they have allowed the second-most PPR points to the position. In a limited sample size with Shedeur Sanders at quarterback, he out-snapped and out-targeted David Njoku. The Browns will likely need to throw the ball in this matchup, making Fannin a strong play despite his TE17 ranking.
Mark Andrews (TE6) – I have Andrews in several high-stakes leagues, and I will need to take my own advice on this one despite his poor output recently. No one has been worse against tight ends than the Bengals, and that dates back to last season. This game will probably be a shootout with a projected 52.5 total points, so there should be lots of opportunities for Andrews to eat.
Least Favorite Tight Ends
Hunter Henry (TE9) – The Giants have been decent against tight ends recently, allowing the eighth-fewest PPR points to the position over the past three weeks. Henry blew up last week, but see my previous comments about the Bengals' defense against tight ends. I expect him to be a bit quieter this week, while Drake Maye and the Patriots look to exploit other areas of the Giants' defense.
Tyler Warren (TE5) – For the season, the Texans have allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points to tight ends. They have allowed two double-digit PPR point outputs to any single tight end all season. I think Daniel Jones will likely rely more on dump-offs to Jonathan Taylor, as the Texans have been exploited by running backs in the passing game, allowing the third-most receiving yards to the position over the past five weeks. Warren may still finish as a TE1 this week (which isn’t hard given the position), but I’m not choosing him to finish among the top half of the tier.
Favorite Kickers
Harrison Butker (K10) - Dome game against a bad defense, I can easily see this game hitting the over on the 52.5 point total, and plenty of opportunities for Butker with the Chiefs being three-point favorites.
Harrison Mevis (K16) – Yes, you are sensing a theme here. I like Harrisons this week. The Rams go on the road as 10-point favorites against the Panthers. One problem presented here is that the Rams only attempt 1.5 field goals per game, as they are very efficient in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. I would anticipate a game similar to week 12, where he had two field goal attempts and converted on all four PATs.
Least Favorite Kickers
Chase McLaughlin (K12) – This is one strictly based on game script, and the Buccaneers possibly being without Baker Mayfield. I think they could struggle to move the ball, limiting McLauglin’s attempts. The Bucs opened the week as 2.5-point favorites, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this tightens or even moves in favor of the Cardinals by game time, if Mayfield is out.
Cairo Santos (K15) – Santos has been solid all year, but this may be a rough one on the road against the Eagles. Chicago averages 2.7 field goal attempts per game, and the Eagles are only allowing 1.3 attempts per game over the past three weeks.
Favorite DSTs
Falcons DST (DST6) – The Jets showed some life against the Ravens, but they only ended up scoring 10 points, giving up three sacks, an interception, and a lost fumble. Atlanta has the third-highest sack rate in the league at just under 11%, and nearly 13% over the last three weeks.
Buccaneers DST (DST13) – I like the Buccaneers to bounce back after getting embarrassed in prime time against the Rams. They have struggled against the better offenses the last few weeks, but have put up double-digit points against lesser offensive teams. The Cardinals are still one of those, allowing the most fantasy points to DSTs over the past five weeks.
Least Favorite DSTs
Jaguars DST (DST5) – Watching the Titans put up 24 points on a much better Seattle defense in week 12 gives me a little bit of pause in playing the Jags DST this week, even though we have been targeting the Titans as a DST matchup this season. The Seahawks did sack Cam Ward four times, but they have the eighth-highest quarterback sack rate in the league, while Jacksonville only has the 28th-highest.
Chargers DST (DST2) – It’s hard to look at the top-12 projected DSTs and really find one that I don’t like, but this is totally a vibes-based pick. The Raiders fired Chip Kelly as their offensive coordinator, and I am banking on this Raiders offense rallying around interim offensive coordinator Greg Olson and putting up a strong fight.
That hopefully includes lots of work for Brock Bowers. Again, this has zero analytics behind it; it is all vibes and intuition. It would be really hard not to start the Chargers DST if you have them, but don’t be shocked if they don’t finish as high as their ranking.