In week 10, half of the 14 games hit the over, with 645 total points scored compared to the 633 projected points. Three of the bottom seven projected over/unders went over. Four matchups more than carried their weight, each totaling 65 or more points; over 41% of the total week’s points came from those four matchups, and one of those matchups (Jags/Texans) was the lowest projected total on the week.
I believe we avoided any significant injuries in week 10, with several players returning from injury, such as Cooper Kupp and D’Andre Swift. Oronde Gadsden II gave fantasy managers a scare, leaving the week 10 contest against the Steelers, though MRI results on Monday revealed a bruised quadriceps. He returned as a full practice participant on Wednesday and carries no injury designation for week 11.
With only two teams on bye, and several players projected to return to action this week, fantasy managers may have a few more options than in past weeks with more byes. Though if your team has been bolstered by Jonathan Taylor, Daniel Jones, or Michael Pittman Jr., you’ll be looking to make up as much of that production as possible.
In our start/sit series this season, we will use FantasyPros weekly consensus rankings for point per reception (PPR) scoring as a reference. I will go game by game, identifying the start’em players, those worthy of a matchup consideration or flex plays in deeper leagues, and the fantasy fades/concerns whose matchup or recent performance should give fantasy managers pause.
I will also be using FFtoday as a reference for points allowed metrics at each position. These should be taken with a grain of salt as a reference this early in the season, though they will get more relevant as we get further in the season. Spreads and over/unders are from ESPN and are accurate as of the writing of this article.
Recommendations will be based on 12-team leagues, so start recommendations will often be reflected within the top-12 quarterback and tight end rankings and the top-24 running back and wide receiver rankings on FantasyPros at the time of this article’s writing. Obviously, your roster construction may dictate that players who are listed as matchup considerations or flex plays are actually your best available RB1/2 or WR1/2.
Players ranked outside the top-12 for quarterback, tight end, DST, and kicker, and outside the top-24 for running back and wide receiver, who I am listing as starting options, will be underlined, and I will spend the most time discussing them. Likewise, if they are within these top rankings and I have them as matchups/flex or fades, I will also underline their names and discuss them.
Without further ado, let's dive into those week 11 matchups!
Bye Weeks: Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints
A quick recap of my favorite picks of last week. A very solid week, with six of my eight players returning strong values (using ESPN scoring for quarterback and PPR scoring for the skill positions).
Jared Goff: QB5 (Ranked QB12)
Caleb Williams: QB4 (Ranked QB9)
Quinshon Judkins: RB26 (Ranked RB13)
TreVeyon Henderson: RB4 (Ranked RB20)
Wan’Dale Robinson: WR29 (Ranked WR19)
Jauan Jennings: WR14 (Ranked WR32)
Juwan Johnson: TE3 (Ranked TE17)
Cade Otton: TE6 (Ranked TE14)
Only Quinshon Judkins and Wan’Dale Robinson failed to return value based on their Fantasy Pros ranking. Both quarterbacks, both tight ends, and one each of the running back and wide receiver selections greatly outperformed their consensus rankings. We will try once again to deliver value with this week’s picks!
Quarterback
Jordan Love (QB12) – Love faces the Giants, who have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past five weeks. The spread suggests this could be a game script favoring the Packers running the ball, but Jameis Winston is the wildcard that could make this game a bit more interesting.
J.J. McCarthy (QB13) – The last time McCarthy faced Chicago, it was his first career game, and he got off to a rocky start. He proceeded to lead a heroic fourth-quarter comeback. He is now at home, with a few more games under his belt, against a Bears defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past five weeks.
Running Back
Woody Marks (RB22) – A mixture of coach speak this week makes the Marks selection somewhat of a gamble, though head coach DeMeco Ryans endorsed the rookie’s performance, stating “… we gotta continue to feed him more.” Marks faced the Titans in week four, putting up a huge performance, and over the past three weeks, the Titans have allowed the ninth most PPR points to running backs.
Rachaad White (RB23) – A nice matchup against a Buffalo defense allowing the third most PPR points to running backs over the past five weeks, with production on the ground and through the air.
Wide Receiver
DeVonta Smith (WR15) – Smith has been much more consistent than A.J. Brown, and is ranked ahead of him in Fantasy Pros consensus rankings. Not only is this warranted, I think that Smith, who is facing a Lions defense surrendering the ninth most PPR points to wide receivers over the past five weeks, and is facing Player Profiler’s 56th-ranked cornerback Amik Robertson, has WR1 and top six-eight wide receiver overall potential.
Michael Wilson (WR44) – With Marvin Harrison Jr. out, Wilson steps into the de facto WR1 role against a 49ers secondary allowing the fifth most PPR points to wide receivers over the past five weeks. Jacoby Brissett is a more competent passer than Kyler Murray, so I have a bit more faith in him utilizing Wilson as a primary target compared to when Murray has been put in the same situation in the past.
Tight End
Colston Loveland (TE17) – I’m going back to the well with Loveland, as I have used him in previous weeks. He faces a Vikings defense that has allowed the sixth-most PPR points to tight ends over the past five weeks. His role continues to grow. DJ Moore may be out with a shoulder injury, Rome Odunze is nursing an ankle injury, and Olamide Zaccheaus is suffering from a horrible case of the drops. It could be another great spot for Loveland to establish himself in the offense.
Evan Engram (TE21) – Going out on a very weak limb for this one given his lack of production, but I think Bo Nix leans on him this week against a Chiefs defense who is much worse against tight ends (eighth most PPR points allowed over the past three weeks) compared to wide receivers (third least PPR points allowed over that same timeframe). I think he could have low-end TE1 production.
Washington Commanders @ Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 16th, 9:30 AM EST (Madrid, Spain)
Spread MIA -2.5
Over/Under 47.5
Start'em: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle
A very underwhelming matchup, I wonder if the NFL will ever be invited back to Spain after this one concludes.
With such a high over/under and tight spread, you would think there would be more start-worthy players in this matchup. But alas… The only must-start options in this game are Achane and Waddle. I would also bet the under on this game.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Bill Croskey-Merritt, Deebo Samuel, Jr., Malik Washington, Dolphins DST
JCM (shouldn’t it be BCM?) has been pretty disappointing since his breakout game over a month ago against the Chargers. This potential keeps him in the flex conversation, though the Dolphins have been much better against the run recently.
I also like the Dolphins DST, despite them being ranked 16th for the week. They had a nice performance against the Bills last week, and the Commanders are allowing the ninth most fantasy points to opposing DSTs over the past five weeks.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, November 16th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread ATL -3.5
Over/Under 41.5
Start'em: Rico Dowdle, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts Sr., Falcons DST
Fantasy managers are a bit concerned that Robinson may have an Allgeier problem, but he is still one of the most talented running backs in the league. The Panthers have given up the fifth most PPR points to running backs over the past three weeks, including 13 receptions.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Tyler Allgeier, Tetairoa McMillan, Darnell Mooney
This is the first time since early in the season that McMillan has seen his name as a flex consideration rather than a must-start level guy, but the Falcons’ pass defense is no joke. McMillan is likely to be facing Player Profiler’s sixth-ranked cornerback, A.J. Terrell, who only allows 3.3 fantasy points per game.
We are also still waiting on Mooney to do something, and he has the easier matchup compared to London.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, November 16th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread MIN -2.5
Over/Under 48.5
Start'em: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze (Ankle), Justin Jefferson, Will Reichard, Cairo Santos, Vikings DST, Aaron Jones, Colston Loveland
We are now in week 11, and I don’t think Swift has practiced on a Wednesday all season. At this point, it seems to be more of a maintenance/rest thing for him, as he returned to a full practice on Thursday. Odunze is also nursing an ankle injury and was still limited as of Thursday, so we need to watch this one.
I mentioned Loveland earlier in my favorite picks list, and that has everything to do with the lack of production from DJ Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus, and the failure to get Luther Burden III fully involved. Odunze and Loveland are the only two pass catchers I trust, though I could see this week being a turning point for Bears' pass-catchers where they look to move on from what hasn't been working.f
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Kyle Monangai, Jordan Addison
Both Monangai and Addison offer a relatively high-floor flex play this week, with the Vikings being slightly easier against running backs over the past three weeks than they have most of the season, and the Bears allowing the seventh most PPR points to wide receivers over that same span.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 16th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread PIT -4.5
Over/Under 48.5
Start'em: Joe Flacco, Chase Brown, Jaylen Warren, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, Evan McPherson, Chris Boswell
Whether you look at the season-long stats or just the past three weeks, both the Bengals and Steelers DSTs allow a ton of points to opposing quarterbacks. The Bengals have been decent against wide receivers, though allowing the seventh fewest PPR points over the last five weeks.
Where they can be had, though, is on the ground and at the tight end position, making Warren a solid play this week.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Kenneth Gainwell, Pick Your Favorite Steelers Tight End
As mentioned above, the Bengals' secondary is susceptible to tight ends, allowing the most PPR points to the position over the past five weeks. This is in large part due to a matchup against this same Steelers team back in week seven.
The issue is guessing which Steelers tight end to start as they seem to use all three of them randomly, and all three scored in their last matchup. If I had to choose one, I would lean towards Jonnu Smith. He has out-targeted his tight end teammates, though he has been less productive than Pat Freiermuth, who had 43% of his total yardage production come from the previous matchup against the Bengals.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
Sunday, November 16th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread GB -6.5
Over/Under 42.5
Start'em: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Wan’Dale Robinson, Theo Johnson
We learned on Wednesday that Jameis Winston would get the start as Jaxson Dart will be sidelined with a concussion. History tells us this is normally a good thing for his pass catchers, making Robinson and Johnson really nice plays this week in a game they likely will need to throw the ball to stay close.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Devin Singletary, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Darius Slayton (Hamstring)
I am not a big fan of either Giants’ running back, though both can return flex-level production. And despite his WR23 ranking this week, Doubs is a high-floor flex play more than he is a WR2, and I think that Watson (ranked WR42) offers a higher ceiling than Doubs as well.
Slayton is still dealing with a hamstring, but assuming he goes on Sunday, I like his chances with Winston at quarterback to potentially hit a big play.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 16th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread HOU -5.5
Over/Under 37.5
Start'em: Woody Marks, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz (Shoulder), Texans DST
We are just waiting for the Texans to fully commit to Marks as THE running back. His 80% snap share last week was encouraging, though offensive coordinator Nick Caley’s comments earlier in the week suggest that wasn’t the plan heading into that game.
Regardless, you have to think that his performance last week, combined with how he abused the Titans back in week four, makes it impossible for them to stop featuring Marks going forward.
Schultz will be a strong play this week if he is good to go, but he has missed practice with a shoulder injury.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Nick Chubb, Tyjae Spears, Tony Pollard
I am still giving Chubb a nod as a potential flex option, as he has looked a bit more explosive when not getting the majority of carries, making him a viable option in this matchup. Both Spears and Pollard remain coin-toss flex options in their own backfield against a stingy Texans defense.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Chimere Dike, Elic Ayomanor, Calvin Ridley
Dike had a nice stretch of games heading into the bye, though Calvin Ridley may return this week. That said, the Texans’ strength is its secondary, and I don’t love any of the Titans' pass-catching options this week. Plus, I don’t like relying on a Cam Ward receiver.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 16th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread LAC -2.5
Over/Under 43.5
Start'em: Justin Herbert, Kimani Vidal, Travis Etienne Jr., Ladd McConkey (Ankle), Oronde Gadsden II, Cameron Dicker, Chargers DST
With the number of start-worthy options in this game, you would expect a higher over/under. McConkey was limited on Wednesday, dealing with an ankle issue, though it does not appear to be significant. Gadsden II, who exited Sunday’s game with a quad bruise, practiced fully on Wednesday, which puts him in line to suit up in week 11.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston (Shin), Parker Washington (Hamstring), Jakobi Meyers
The emergence of Gadsden (and reemergence of McConkey) has relegated Allen and Johnston to flex-level starts, though either could return WR2 value any given week. Johnston was limited with a shin injury on Wednesday, so keep an eye on that.
Washington didn’t practice on Wednesday with a hamstring issue, but returned to practice on Thursday in a limited capacity. He and Meyers are both flex-level starting options with Brian Thomas Jr.’s status still in question.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 16th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread BUF -5.5
Over/Under 46.5
Start'em: Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Rachaad White, James Cook III, Emeka Egbuka, Cade Otton, Chase McLauglin, Matt Prater
Buffalo will look to bounce back from an embarrassing performance last week against the Dolphins. Prater has moved from outside the top-12 kickers to K11 throughout the week. He is an option I liked as a start, though keep an eye on the weather, and if the wind is bad, you may want to pivot.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Sean Tucker, Tez Johnson
Tezmania has been a fun story this season, and he has stepped up admirably with the wide receiver injuries in Tampa Bay. He and Egbuka have been a great rookie wide receiver duo, so we will see if Johnson can continue his strong play against a Bills defense that allows the 13th most PPR points to wide receivers.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 16th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread SF -2.5
Over/Under 48.5
Start'em: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Trey McBride, Eddy Pineiro
Nothing terribly noteworthy in the start’em list. The flex list below is likely the most interesting…
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Emari Demercado, Michael Wilson, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings
With Marvin Harrison Jr. out this week after his appendectomy, Wilson becomes a very viable flex play with a nice floor against a 49ers defense allowing the fourth most PPR points to wide receivers over the past three weeks. I am starting him this week over Courtland Sutton in one of my leagues.
Pearsall will play on Sunday, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan. Considering how long Pearsall has been out, this is significant news in terms of how healthy Pearsall (and Brock Purdy, for that matter) likely is, as Shanahan made some insightful comments last week. He said that players aren’t allowed to return from injury until they hit their pre-injury speeds at practice.
While this is encouraging for the long-term prospects for Purdy, Pearsall, and the rest of the 49ers, it brings Jennings down from WR2 territory into flex consideration, which is also where I will have Pearsall this week until I see this offense get back on track with all of their weapons fully integrated.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, November 16th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread LAR -3.5
Over/Under 48.5
Start'em: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Jason Myers, Harrison Mevis
With a nice over/under and a fairly tight spread, I like a lot of options in this game, including the kickers, both of whom are ranked outside of the top-12, but I think will get plenty of work in a nice indoor environment. Both of these offenses have a lot of firepower, and both defenses are top-seven in redzone touchdown rate.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, Rashid Shaheed
A juiced-up version of the Titan’s backfield situation, Walker III and Charbonnet are in an annoying timeshare, which makes them very tough to trust outside of a flex-level start. I also think Shaheed sneaks in as a boom/bust flex option; with another week practicing with the Seahawks, he should see an increase from his 34% snap share last week.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 16th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread BAL -7.5
Over/Under 38.5
Start'em: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Quinshon Judkins, Zay Flowers, Tyler Loop, Ravens DST
The Ravens may be starting to find their groove again, on both offense and defense. As Jackson works his way back, things should start clicking again, and their defense has held up well since the bye, allowing 16, six, and 19 points in their last three games while recording four sacks, four interceptions, and three fumble recoveries.
The Browns have the lowest implied total of the week, making the Ravens DST a very strong start.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Harold Fannin Jr. (Hamstring)
Jeudy had his best game of the season last week, recording six receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. Watching this game, it looked like Dillon Gabriel was looking Jeudy’s way early and often, so we will see if that continues.
Fannin Jr. out-targeted Njoku last week, but Njoku came up with the touchdown. They are both outside of the top-12 rankings this week, and Fannin Jr. has been limited with a hamstring injury. If Fannin Jr. sits, Njoku is still probably a high-end TE2 (not quite a TE1), as the Ravens have allowed the third-fewest PPR points to tight ends over the past three weeks.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 16th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread KC -3.5
Over/Under 44.5
Start'em: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, Harrison Butker, Chiefs DST, Broncos DST
The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites going on the road to Mile High against a Broncos team that has been sputtering on offense and missing their best defensive player. The Chiefs' defense has been relatively friendly to opposing quarterbacks over the past three weeks, allowing the 10th most points to the position, but Bo Nix has been struggling.
With those struggles comes some fantasy downgrades at the skill positions, as Troy Franklin has seemingly usurped Courtland Sutton as Nix’s preferred option, but I don’t trust either against this Chiefs’ secondary, which is allowing the sixth fewest PPR points to wide receivers over the past three weeks.
Where the Chiefs can be exploited is at tight end, where they have allowed the sixth most PPR points over that same three-week span. I also think that Nix needs to look to get the ball out quickly, which is why, despite lackluster production recently, I might trust Engram to be Nix’s weapon of choice in this matchup compared to the wide receivers.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Kareem Hunt, RJ Harvey, Xavier Worthy, Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin
Harvey should get the bulk of the work in the backfield this week with J.K. Dobbins out, though I would not be surprised if we see some annoying usage from Tyler Badie or even Jaleel McLaughlin, which keeps him in flex-territory for me. Hunt is in a similar range, though several spots lower, given the strength of the Broncos’ run defense.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 16th, 8:20 PM EST
Spread PHI -2.5
Over/Under 46.5
Start'em: Jalen Hurts, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Sam LaPorta (Back), Dallas Goedert
Your usual suspects for both teams should be in starting lineups in a matchup with a lower over/under than one might expect, given the offensive firepower both teams possess. Both teams’ defenses have been exploited at times, with the Lions being fairly stout against opposing running backs and the Eagles being among the best against opposing wide receivers.
I expect both quarterbacks to get their playmakers involved, though, and to work around the strength of the opposing defenses. I would not be shocked to see this game hit the over.
LaPorta’s status will be one to monitor as he has yet to practice this week with a back injury. With nothing further reported as of this article, fantasy managers will need to monitor this one through the weekend.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: David Montgomery, Jameson Williams, A.J. Brown
Montgomery is just on the outside of RB2 territory, coming in at RB25. Given the spread in this game, I can see Gibbs getting substantial work through the passing game, though Dan Campbell taking over play-calling duties might mean more Monty than normal, too. I think he is a high-end flex play with RB2 upside.
Brown, on the other hand, is ranked as WR18 this week, and I get it from a matchup standpoint, as he is projected to face Player Profiler’s 79th-ranked cornerback, Terrion Arnold. He has tried the squeaky wheel thing before and had a nice game in week seven. After missing the following game with a hamstring injury, he only earned three targets after their week nine bye.
The wheel squeaked a bit more after last week’s surprisingly unremarkable win over the Packers, though the squeaks were somewhat masked behind comments about the offense’s overall struggles. He might be right, and he may get more usage, but I am willing to be wrong about him as a mid-WR2 this week.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Dallas Cowboys @ Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, November 17th, 8:15 PM EST
Spread DAL -3.5
Over/Under 49.5
Start'em: Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, Ashton Jeanty, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, Brock Bowers, Brandon Aubrey
Once again, the Cowboys’ pathetic defense leads to the highest over/under on the week, with the Cowboys just over a field goal favorite against a reeling Raiders team. This may be an opportunity for the Raiders to help out fantasy managers, though it may not lead to a real-life victory.
If you are a frustrated Bowers manager (raises hand), you would like to see them get him much more involved than they did last week, where the Raiders only scored seven points.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Tre Tucker, Tyler Lockett
Lockett has found a home in Vegas, once again playing for coach Pete Carroll, and while he may have lost a step, the veteran has earned the trust of the team and his quarterback, which resulted in six targets last week.
He and Tucker both offer boom/bust flex potential, though Tucker has been fairly quiet since week six. They will both look to help the team put some points on the board against this putrid Cowboys DST.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Cowboys DST
FantasyPros consensus rankings have the Cowboys DST as DST11 this week. I understand the idea, but I don’t get the overall logic that would have someone start them over streamers like Miami or San Francisco.
The Raiders are allowing the 15th fewest points to opposing DSTs over the past five weeks, and are only slightly worse over the past three weeks. I suppose they may get there with sacks or turnovers, though it took five sacks, two fumble recoveries, and an interception to return eight fantasy points against the Cardinals in week nine. Ranking them as a top-12 DST this week is just a little too cute for me.