In week nine, eight of the 14 games hit the over, producing 683 total points compared to the 664 projected points. Only three of the seven highest over/under point totals hit, while five of the bottom seven did. The largest total came from the Bears versus Bengals game, which produced a whopping 89 points. The second-most came from the Jaguars versus Raiders game, which had 59 total points, though they had to go to overtime to get there.
Another brutal season-ending injury came last week, with Tucker Kraft tearing his ACL against the Panthers. While fantasy managers probably won’t be scrambling to the waiver wire for Luke Musgrave, this unfortunate development might provide an opportunity for the other pass catchers in Green Bay.
In our start/sit series this season, we will use FantasyPros weekly consensus rankings for point per reception (PPR) scoring as a reference. I will go game by game, identifying the start’em players, those worthy of a matchup consideration or flex plays in deeper leagues, and the fantasy fades/concerns whose matchup or recent performance should give fantasy managers pause.
I will also be using FFtoday as a reference for points allowed metrics at each position. These should be taken with a grain of salt as a reference this early in the season, though they will get more relevant as we get further in the season. Spreads and over/unders are from ESPN and are accurate as of the writing of this article.
Recommendations will be based on 12-team leagues, so start recommendations will often be reflected within the top-12 quarterback and tight end rankings and the top-24 running back and wide receiver rankings on FantasyPros at the time of this article’s writing. Obviously, your roster construction may dictate that players who are listed as matchup considerations or flex plays are actually your best available RB1/2 or WR1/2.
Players ranked outside the top-12 for quarterback, tight end, DST, and kicker, and outside the top-24 for running back and wide receiver, who I am listing as starting options, will be underlined, and I will spend the most time discussing them. Likewise, if they are within these top rankings and I have them as matchups/flex or fades, I will also underline their names and discuss them.
Without further ado, let's dive into those week ten matchups!
Week Ten Byes: Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans
A quick recap on my favorite picks of last week. Once again, it was a mixed bag, but there were certainly some strong plays here (using standard ESPN scoring for QB and PPR scoring for RB/WR/TE):
Kyler Murray (Jacoby Brissett): QB10 (Ranked QB9/QB13)
Sam Darnold: QB6 (Ranked QB16)
TreVeyon Henderson: RB16 (Ranked RB38)
Tyjae Spears: RB26 (Ranked RB30)
Jameson Williams: WR20 (Ranked WR37)
Jordan Addison: WR48 (Ranked WR31)
Zach Ertz: TE23 (Ranked TE13)
Colston Loveland: TE2 (Ranked TE12)
The Murray/Brissett call is really hard to judge, so I will just call that a miss. However, Darnold, Henderson, Williams, and Loveland were big hits. Spears was a small hit, while Addison and Ertz were big misses. Five out of eight isn’t bad; I will take this return when targeting players outside of the top-tier at their position. Hopefully, we can do as well with this week’s picks!
Quarterback
Jared Goff (QB12) – The Commanders have been a great matchup for quarterbacks, allowing the second-most points to the position over the past three weeks. Also worth noting is that very little of that production has come via the ground, so this sets up nicely for Goff and his weapons.
Caleb Williams (QB9) – Ranked in the back-third of QB1 options this week, Williams has top-five upside this week, facing a Giants defense allowing the fourth-most points to quarterbacks over the past three weeks. They have allowed 71 rushing yards and two touchdowns over this span as well, which is favorable for Williams and his scrambling abilities.
Running Back
Quinshon Judkins (RB13) – This one is a bit more chalky than it was earlier in the week when I chose Judkins, but I am sticking by it. The Browns probably won’t need to throw the ball much, and I expect 20+ carries for Judkins, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see multiple scores as well. He has top-five potential this week.
TreVeyon Henderson (RB20) – The Buccaneers can be run on, and the Patriots would be wise to use Henderson to exploit this while also allowing the run game help open up the passing game. The Buccaneers have allowed the sixth-most PPR points to running backs over the past three weeks, so this presents another strong opportunity for Henderson to finally show what he can do.
Wide Receiver
Wan’Dale Robinson (WR19) – Not a sexy pick by any means, but I think Robinson can return value on his WR19 rank this week. Chicago has yielded the fourth-most PPR points to wide receivers over the past three weeks, and this game has the makings of a shootout.
Jauan Jennings (WR32) – A guy that I faded in the offseason and have been pretty bearish on even when he’s been on the field, I see this as a great spot for him to return WR2 or better production while being ranked towards the back end of the WR3 tier.
While the Rams have been decent against wide receivers most of the season, they have given up the eighth-most PPR points over the past three weeks, and Jennings is one of the lone healthy pass catchers on this 49ers offense.
Tight End
Juwan Johnson (TE17) – He has moved down since I decided to choose Johnson for my pick, but with Rashid Shaheed off to Seattle, Jennings will have ample opportunity for more targets from his former college quarterback (albeit one year). The Panthers have been better against the tight end as of late, but for the season, they have allowed the ninth-most PPR points to the position.
Cade Otton (TE14) – Unlike Johnson, Otton has moved up since I originally selected him. He started as TE17 when I decided on Otton as one of my best tight end plays, and sure enough, he has moved up to TE14 as of writing this. With Chris Godwin Jr. out, Otton will once again be a relied-upon target in this Bucs passing offense against a Patriots defense allowing the seventh-most PPR points to the position this season.
Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 9th, 9:30 AM EST (Berlin, Germany)
Spread IND -6.5
Over/Under 47.5
Start’em: Daniel Jones, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Drake London, Michael Pittman Jr., Kyle Pitts Sr., Tyler Warren, Michael Badgley
“It’s five o’clock somewhere” is nearly applicable here, as it will be 3:30 pm CET when this game kicks off in Berlin, Germany, despite those of us on the West Coast having to set an alarm so we don’t miss kickoff. So grab a stein of your favorite beverage (and a cup of coffee) and buckle up for what should be a fun game, as it is tied for the second-highest over/under on the week.
The Colts got exposed last week against the Steelers, but I think they can bounce back this week. The Falcons are a legitimate passing defense, but they can be had on the ground, allowing the eighth-most PPR points to running backs this season and the second-most over the past three weeks.
While I don’t think the Jones has been a mirage this season, the Steelers may have provided a blueprint on how to slow the Colts' passing attack down. I think Jones should likely be started in most leagues, but some streaming options may provide a higher ceiling if you want to sit Jones out against this tough Falcons’ defense.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Darnell Mooney
The Colts acquired Sauce Gardner via trade this week, which may make life a bit harder for London. While it may take time for Gardner to acclimate, especially with an international trip further reducing the time he has to practice with the team, he is a lockdown corner whose skills translate regardless, which could provide additional opportunity for Mooney to get involved.
He has not done much this season, but the game script suggests that Atlanta will need to throw the ball, and Mooney could benefit.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Tyler Allgeier
While Allgeier has been serviceable as a flex several times this season, it has been wildly inconsistent. Given the 5.5-point spread, this seems much more like a Bijan receiving game script, which should limit Allgeier’s appeal even as a flex.
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, November 9th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread BAL -4.5
Over/Under 49.5
Start’em: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Justin Jefferson, Zay Flowers, Tyler Loop, Will Reichard, Ravens DST
No big surprises here, start your main Raven’s weapons. Jefferson is the only must-start level player on the Vikings. And the Ravens defense has looked rejuvenated out of their week seven bye, so look for them to continue that against an inexperienced quarterback.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jordan Addison, Jordan Mason, Aaron Jones Sr. (Shoulder/Toe)
Keep an eye on Jones Sr.’s status, as he is dealing with shoulder and toe injuries, which kept him out of practice on Wednesday. If Jones Sr. is out, I still think Mason is merely a flex-play; Baltimore has been run on this season, but they have tightened things up as of late, giving up the 13th-fewest PPR points to running backs over the past three games.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 9th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread BUF -8.5
Over/Under 49.5
Start’em: Josh Allen, James Cook, De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, Dalton Kincaid, Matt Prater, Bills DST
Riding high off their win against the Chiefs, I expect the Bills to ride that momentum into Miami and take care of business. I would not be surprised to see this spread hit double digits by the time the game kicks off, though it has dropped by one point over the past couple of days.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Khalil Shakir, Malik Washington
Washington has done his best over the past few weeks to step up and help this Dolphins team out, but it hasn’t been enough. He is a boom/bust flex play who is most valuable in leagues that give points for return yardage.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
Sunday, November 9th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread CLE -2.5
Over/Under 37.5
Start’em: Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin Jr., Browns DST
Post trade deadline, the line on this game has shifted from -2.5 in favor of the Jets to -2.5 in favor of the Browns. The Jets are blowing things up and starting over, so I expect the Browns to assert their dominance in the run game this week, making Judkins a smash start.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Garrett Wilson (Knee)
If Wilson returns for this game (though why would he?) I think he is probably a bit limited and may not provide the WR1-2 level of production we normally see, especially if he lines up against Player Profiler’s fifth-ranked cornerback, Denzel Ward.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Breece Hall
Hall’s fantasy production this year has been bolstered by performances against bottom-five defenses against running backs. Against tougher opponents, he has failed to reach 60 scrimmage yards. He now faces the second-best defense in PPR points allowed to running backs.
Add to that, the Jets’ defense is going to be much worse, likely limiting their offensive possessions. He may bail managers out with receptions, but I really hate how this is projecting for the Jets. It may be tough for you to bench Hall, but I think he is a low-end RB2 at best, and I would not be surprised if he struggles to even return RB3 value this week. Look elsewhere if you can afford to.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Sunday, November 9th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread HOU -1.5
Over/Under 37.5
Start’em: Travis Etienne Jr., Nico Collins, Jaguars DST, Texans DST
What looked to have the makings of a fun, high-scoring matchup earlier in the season is now the lowest over/under in this week’s slate. CJ Stroud has been ruled out with a concussion, and Brian Thomas Jr. will also miss this game with a high ankle sprain.
Trevor Lawrence hasn’t played great, and his fantasy production this year has been bolstered by two games with two rushing touchdowns. Travis Hunter Jr. is on IR. I apologize if this is the CBS game being shown in your region.
With both teams struggling on offense and the lowest over/under on the week, both DSTs are in play.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Bhayshul Tuten, Woody Marks, Nick Chubb (Foot), Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers
Typically low-scoring affairs don’t offer much in terms of fantasy options. With only three in my start’em category, the remaining options are flex-level plays at best. Chubb missed Wednesday’s practice with a foot injury but returned to practice Thursday.
Let’s keep an eye on his status entering the game; if he is questionable, and he plays, he may have a more limited role, getting Marks closer to an RB2-type play.
Meyers is one of those receivers who is a plug-and-play type of guy; he is a good route runner, knows how to get open, and has reliable hands. I could easily see Lawrence using Meyers even on a short week following his trade to the Jaguars, though Washington is still the more familiar option and likely retains most of the slot work.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, November 9th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread TB -2.5
Over/Under 48.5
Start’em: Drake Maye, Baker Mayfield, TreVeyon Henderson, Stefon Diggs, Emeka Egbuka, Cade Otton, Chase McLaughlin, Buccaneers DST
This is a very interesting matchup. The spread suggests this will be a close and exciting game. I have heard several people, including Patriots fans, suggest that the Patriots might get exposed in this game and that the Buccaneers could run away with it.
Regardless, I think there are a lot of starting options in this game, which includes Otton, who has moved down to TE17 in FantasyPros consensus rankings as of this article.
The Patriots allow the ninth-most PPR points to tight ends, and the Buccaneers will likely be without Chris Godwin Jr. once again. I think Otton is a strong play this week. I actually think I prefer him more than Hunter Henry in this same game, who is FantasyPros’ TE12.
The Patriots also allow the fifth-most points to opposing DSTs, so the Buccaneers DST, which is only ranked as DST18 this week, is a top-12 play and a strong streaming option this week.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Terrell Jennings, Rachaad White, DeMario Douglas, Tez Johnson
Despite his RB19 ranking this week, White is a flex play for me and a borderline fade. He has failed to exceed 61 scrimmage yards each of the last two weeks against a Lions defense that is third-best in PPR points allowed to running backs, and the Saints defense that is much friendlier, allowing the 12th-most.
The Patriots allow the fourth-fewest PPR points to running backs, making this another tough matchup and one that I would like to approach with caution. If you can avoid using White this week, it could be of benefit, but I think his flex value will be very touchdown-dependent.
With Kayshon Boutte possibly out with a hamstring injury, Douglas will look to build upon what he did last week. Likewise, Johnson will try to continue his strong performances he has had with both Godwin Jr. and Mike Evans sidelined; perhaps the bye week has given him and Mayfield even more time to build chemistry.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 9th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread CAR -5.5
Over/Under 38.5
Start’em: Rico Dowdle, Chris Olave, Tetairoa McMillan (Hamstring), Juwan Johnson, Panthers DST
For those of us who thought we sold high on Dowdle, we may be regretting that decision as he seems to have taken control of this backfield. If you hung onto him, you have found money that could continue to reward you the rest of the season.
We found out Friday morning that McMillan tweaked his hamstring at practice, leaving him questionable for the game. Head coach Dave Canales said there is some concern, so this will need to be monitored throughout the weekend.
I have Johnson on here as a start despite his TE17 ranking for the week. The trading of Rashid Shaheed to Seattle further opens up target opportunities, and Johnson has earned 19 targets over the past three weeks with Shaheed on the team.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Alvin Kamara (Ankle), Chuba Hubbard, Jalen Coker
Unfortunately, we may be witnessing the season where Kamara falls off a cliff, though it does not help that he has been dealing with an ankle injury most of the season. He and Hubbard are flex-worthy options this week.
If McMillan sits this one out, Coker may have to finally step up and help this team out. He hasn’t done much since returning from his stint on IR with a hamstring issue of his own, but we have seen him ball out previously, and this may be the opportunity needed to reestablish himself as a viable weapon on this offense.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, November 9th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread CHI -4.5
Over/Under 46.5
Start’em: Jaxson Dart, Caleb Williams, Wan’Dale Robinson, Rome Odunze (Ankle/Heel), Cairo Santos
All but two Bears games have hit the over this season, and most of the games since Dart took over for the Giants have as well. That said, I expect this one to go over 50 total points and for that production to be top-heavy amongst the listed starting options above.
I don’t love the Bears DST in this matchup, despite their DST11 ranking this week. The Giants are not allowing a ton of points to opposing DSTs, though the Bears are an opportunistic defense that could create some turnovers. They aren’t my favorite option this week, and there are better streamers you could probably use.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Devin Singletary, D’Andre Swift (Groin), Kyle Monangai, DJ Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus, Darius Slayton
The split between Tracy Jr. and Singletary was interesting last week, as Singletary outrushed Tracy Jr. both in terms of attempts and yardage. He also received more work inside the red zone (and green zone; inside the 10-yard line).
Therefore, I disagree with FantasyPros' ranking of Tracy Jr. as RB24 this week, and think that Singletary should be much closer to Tracy Jr. (if not above) him, but neither is worthy of an RB2 ranking.
Swift said on Wednesday he plans on playing this week, which makes the Bears' backfield a bit murky, as Monangai has earned more of a role after his solo performance last week. Monangai is also dealing with an ankle injury of his own, so that could play into how snaps are distributed on Sunday.
Either way, I am afraid that Monangai’s role has stripped Swift of his must-start honor he has earned most of the season, making both he and Monangai high-floor flex plays.
If you like to gamble, Zaccheaus could return some value for you in this matchup as well. He had a team-high eight targets last week and scored a touchdown. PPR volume may keep his floor high enough for flex consideration.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Colston Loveland
Fantasy managers may be quick to rush Loveland into their lineups after his explosion last week, but I might pump the brakes a bit. The Bengals are more like declawed kittens when it comes to defending tight ends (which is why he was one of my favorite plays last week), while the Giants are top-12 against the position in terms of PPR points allowed this season.
At this point in the season, you likely haven’t been relying on Loveland to be in your starting lineup, and I would suggest holding off once again and letting him further prove his role on his team and his value to your lineup.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, November 9th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread SEA -6.5
Over/Under 45.5
Start’em: Kenneth Walker, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Trey McBride, Jason Myers, Seahawks DST
Pretty straightforward here with your high-end studs being in your starting lineup.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Sam Darnold, Zonovan Knight, Emari Demercado, Zach Charbonnet, Rashid Shaheed, Tory Horton (Groin/Shin)
I tried to get Darnold into starting consideration, but I think he can be a decent streamer if you need one this week.
I really don’t love either Knight or Demercado, but both could deliver low-floor flex production. If I had to choose one, I would choose Demercado.
Shaheed is an interesting case in terms of a player being dealt mid-week to a new team. He knows the offense, as Klint Kubiac was the offensive coordinator last year in New Orleans. This should allow Shaheed to hit the ground running, somewhat relegating the Horton breakout experience as an afterthought.
I do believe Horton has earned a bigger role on this team and may continue to be an important factor this week as Darnold and Shheed build a rapport, though that also may be in question based on his Thursday DNP practice status, so you need to keep an eye on this one if you had any plans on playing Horton. This also implies that I expect Cooper Kupp to miss this game as well.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders
Sunday, November 9th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread DET -7.5
Over/Under 49.5
Start’em: Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel Sr., Sam LaPorta, Jake Bates, Lions DST
A road-Goff game that I am not terribly concerned about road-Goff rearing its ugly head. Over the past three weeks, the Commanders have yielded the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Start him, and the rest of your Lions, with confidence.
That includes Montgomery, who comes in at RB21 in the FantasyPros rankings. This very much could be a mop-up duty game where Montgomery kills the clock, and the will of the Commanders' defense.
Samuel Sr. is close to being a flex-play, though I think that the Commanders see their season is on the line and will need to find some way to get Marcus Mariota easier looks if they want this offense to get on track. That means getting the ball in the hands of Samuel Jr. and letting him use his YAC abilities.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jameson Williams
Unless Jamo gets involved early, this may be a game he doesn’t get much action, but he is always a big-play threat and is certainly flex-worthy.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Bill Croskey-Merritt
Croskey-Merritt has been stuck in neutral, and it won’t get any easier against a Lions defense allowing the second-fewest PPR points to running backs over the past three weeks. Despite his RB31 ranking this week, he will be on my bench unless I am extremely desperate.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, November 9th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread LAR -4.5
Over/Under 49.5
Start’em: Matthew Stafford, Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, George Kittle, Eddy Pineiro, Rams DST
Tied for the largest over/under on the week, this interstate matchup should be fun. Fantasy managers will be on Brock Purdy/Mac Jones watch this week, though it probably shouldn’t change any of your lineup decisions for the weapons around them, which are very few starting-level ones with just McCaffrey and Kittle.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Blake Corum, Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne
With Ricky Pearsall’s timeline “fuzzy”, it suggests that Jennings and Bourne will be the two top wide receiver options once again. Jennings is a high-floor level flex, whereas Bourne is a boom/bust flex, and both will serve ancillary roles behind McCaffrey and Kittle.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 9th, 8:20 PM EST
Spread LAC -2.5
Over/Under 45.5
Start’em: Justin Herbert, Jaylen Warren, Kimani Vidal, DK Metcalf, Ladd McConkey, Oronde Gadsden II, Chris Boswell, Cameron Dicker
After the first few weeks of the season, who would have guessed that a rookie tight end would have relegated both Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston to flex plays? Well, that’s where we are at, as Gadsden II has presented a mismatch for opposing defenses with his size/speed combination and has become one of Herbert’s favorite targets over recent weeks.
The Steelers are also one of the worst teams against the tight end, allowing the third-most PPR points to the position this season.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Kenneth Gainwell, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston
Already addressed above, Allen and Johnston are still strong options in a high-volume passing offense, and both offer decent upside for a touchdown as well.
Gainwell’s carries have gone down a bit recently, but he is still being relied upon in the passing game, earning five targets last week in their win against the Colts. The spread suggests the game script may include another 30+ pass attempt game for Aaron Rodgers, which could provide a nice receiving floor for Gainwell to return flex-worthy production.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers
Monday, November 10th, 8:15 PM EST
Spread GB -1.5
Over/Under 45.5
Start’em: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
Brown logged a full practice on Friday and was removed from Philly's injury report, so I would start him as you normally would. With this Eagles offense at full capacity, it adds intrigue to this matchup in Lambeau.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson
As touched on in the intro, Kraft’s injury opens up the opportunity for one of the wide receivers to step up into a larger role. Doubs has been the most reliable, though unremarkable, option so far. Watson has hit on some splash plays, and probably most significantly for fantasy managers, he has pushed rookie Matthew Golden out of fantasy relevancy.
We will see if either of these guys can take hold of the opportunity, though cornerback matchups could dictate who emerges here. Player Profiler has Quinyon Mitchell as their top-ranked cornerback this season, and Cooper DeJean as their 29th-ranked cornerback. Kelee Ringo is ranked as the 76th and is projected to be matched up against Doubs.
If this projection holds, Doubs may be the stronger play, and likely would be regardless, based on his target volume so far this season.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else