In week six, only six of the 15 games hit the over, with the three largest over/unders failing to hit the over, and three of the four lowest over/unders also hitting the under. There were 632 total points scored compared to the projected 687.5.
Despite the less-than-stellar overall offensive production last week, we still had a vintage performance from Patrick Mahomes II, the second straight week of Rico Dowdle making minced meat out of opposing rushing defenses, and some strong performances from Giants’ rookies Cam Skattebo and Jasxon Dart.
Baker Mayfield continued his MVP run in another nice game against the 49ers, while Joe Flacco kept some hope alive for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins managers.
Week seven only has two teams on bye, but it gets a lot messier after that, with six teams having byes in week eight. It’s never too early to start planning ahead…
In our start/sit series this season, we will use FantasyPros weekly consensus rankings for point per reception (PPR) scoring as a reference. I will go game by game, identifying the start’em players, those worthy of a matchup consideration or flex plays in deeper leagues, and the fantasy fades/concerns whose matchup or recent performance should give fantasy managers pause.
I will also be using FFtoday as a reference for points allowed metrics at each position. These should be taken with a grain of salt as a reference this early in the season, though they will get more relevant as we get further in the season. Spreads and over/unders are from ESPN and are accurate as of the writing of this article.
Recommendations will be based on 12-team leagues, so start recommendations will often be reflected within the top-12 quarterback and tight end rankings and the top-24 running back and wide receiver rankings on FantasyPros at the time of this article’s writing. Obviously, your roster construction may dictate that players who are listed as matchup considerations or flex plays are actually your best available RB1/2 or WR1/2.
Player ranked outside the top-12 for quarterback, tight end, DST, and kicker, and outside the top-24 for running back and wide receiver, who I am listing as starting options, will be underlined, and I will spend the most time discussing them. Likewise, if they are within these top rankings and I have them as matchups/flex or fades, I will also underline their names and discuss them.
Without further ado, let's dive into those week seven matchups!
Week Seven Byes: Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens
Before jumping into the game-by-game matchups, let me give some of my favorite MUST-START options this week at each position:
Quarterback
I really cannot recommend any quarterbacks ranked outside of the top-12 this week, but if you are desperate, I don’t mind Matthew Stafford (facing the Jaguars, who allow the seventh most points to quarterbacks). Even with Puka Nacua sidelined, he will probably still find success using his other weapons.
Caleb Williams (QB7) – The Saints’ defense is allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past three weeks.
Jared Goff (QB8) – Home-Goff against the Buccaneers, who have allowed the eight most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past three weeks and the 10th most all season. Sign me up.
Running Back
Bill Croskey-Merritt (RB13) – The Cowboys are allowing the most PPR points to running backs over the past three weeks, and the third most on the season.
Alvin Kamara (RB22) – The Bears are hemorrhaging points to the running back, allowing the fifth most PPR points to running backs this season. The Saints would be wise to get Kamara involved early and often.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton (WR16) – The Giants' secondary has been Swiss cheese this season, allowing the fourth most PPR points to wide receivers this season and the second most yards to the position.
Ladd McConkey (WR17) – The Colts' secondary is banged up and has allowed the fifth-most PPR points to wide receivers this season, and the fourth-most over the past three weeks. Mad Ladd is back, and despite the return of Quentin Johnston, I love McConkey this week.
Tight End
Mason Taylor (TE15) – Despite not being ranked as a top-12 tight end option this week, Taylor could be in for a big game. With Garrett Wilson likely not playing, he should see a large target volume, and the Panthers have allowed the second-most PPR points to tight ends this season, and the fourth most over the past three weeks.
Harold Fannin Jr. (TE9) – This is very weather dependent (more on that below), but if it ends up being a manageable weather situation, with David Njoku likely out, and Jerry Jeudy possibly out, Fannin Jr. could reap the rewards with a strong target share against a defense giving up the sixth most PPR points to tight ends this season.
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Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 19th, 9:30 AM EST (London, England)
Spread LAR -3.5
Over/Under 44.5
Start’Em: Kyren Williams, Travis Etienne Jr., Davante Adams, Brian Thomas Jr., Rams DST, Cam Little
Quite a few weapons on both teams garner start’em status, while both of the quarterbacks should stay on your bench.
Etienne Jr. has been quiet as of late, and the Rams are allowing the third fewest PPR points to running backs, but with running back injuries and two starting running backs on bye, he stays inside the top-20 at the position and remains a must-start for me.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jordan Whittington
Whittington could step in and receive some of the scraps left over from Adam’s, though he is projected to face Player Profilers' 29th-ranked cornerback Jourdan Lewis. This is a high variance boom/bust flex play if you are desperate.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Travis Hunter, Bhayshul Tuten
Both are ranked inside the top-48 at their position, but I cannot trust either, even as a flex start. Despite reports that Liam Coen intends to give Hunter a bigger role in the offense, he just hasn’t done much with the opportunities he does get.
He is not getting separation against man coverage, so the positive this week is the Rams run man coverage at the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL, so if there were a game for him to break out, it would be this week. Regardless, I will let it happen on my bench and take my chances.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets
Sunday, October 19th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread CAR -1.5
Over/Under 41.5
Start’Em: Rico Dowdle, Breece Hall, Tetairoa McMillan, Mason Taylor
Do I appreciate what Dowdle did the last two weeks? Yes. Did I benefit from it? Also yes. Do I expect it to continue when Chuba Hubbard returns, even as soon as this week? No, I don’t.
That said, I think I give Dowdle one more week as a must-start option as they ease Hubbard back in and figure out their respective roles moving forward. I don’t think the Panthers just shelve Hubbard, but I also believe Dowdle has earned more work. Once both backs are established, I think this will be an annoying timeshare with both being flex-level plays.
The Jets’ offense is broken, and will look even worse with Garrett Wilson sidelined. However, Taylor was earning targets before the Wilson injury, and is now arguably their best remaining target option. The Panthers are allowing the second most PPR points to the tight end, and despite being ranked outside of the top-12 this week, I am starting Taylor if I have him.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Chuba Hubbard, Jalen Coker, Panthers DST
Both Hubbard and Coker are expected back this week, and I am low-key excited to see how this offense can operate once they have all of their weapons back.
Hubbard has crept into the top-48 running backs this week, and Coker is quickly approaching this territory as well.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, October 19th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread KC -12.5
Over/Under 45.5
Start’Em: Patrick Mahomes II, Ashton Jeanty, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Chiefs DST, Harrison Butker
Rice managers, this is the moment you've been waiting for. The Chiefs seem to have gotten back on track, and now they receive their best offensive weapon (outside of Mahomes) back. The Chiefs' offensive ecosystem will start to feel whole again.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy, Jakobi Meyers (Knee), Tre Tucker, Michael Mayer
Worthy has moved down in the ranks throughout the week, down to WR21 as of right now. I think he fades into a flex-start moving forward, as I expect Rice to get all the volume he can handle right out of the gate.
Meyers sat out practice on Wednesday with a knee injury, and coincidentally, is rumored to be traded very soon. If he plays, I think you can flex him. If he doesn’t, Tucker becomes very usable; still not must-start, but a very high-end flex with upside.
Mayer could also be considered if you are needy at tight end, though the Chiefs have given up the 10th-fewest PPR points to tight ends this season. You are hoping for catch-up garbage time volume with Mayer.
The Kansas City running backs could simply benefit from mop-up production in what projects to be a blowout.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 19th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread CLE -2.5
Over/Under 36.5
Start’Em: De’Von Achane, Quinshon Judkins, Jaylen Waddle, Darren Waller, Harold Fannin Jr., Browns DST
Weather may end up being a factor here, so keep an eye on that. It could impact the passing game with rain and high winds expected. The pass-catching options are very weather-dependent. If it ends up being as bad as current forecasts suggest, the passing options in this game should be moved down to flex-considerations at best.
David Njoku suffered a knee injury last week and was a DNP on Wednesday’s practice report. He is also a rumored trade candidate, so they may rest him rather than risk further injury. This catapults Fannin Jr. as a must-start tight end.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jerry Jeudy (Knee)
Outside of the starting options listed above, Jeudy is the only other flex-level consideration I would make. He is dealing with a knee injury, though. I would consider flexing him if he goes. If he is out, this may elevate Isaiah Bond into low-end flex territory.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 19th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread NE -6.5
Over/Under 42.5
Start’Em: Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs (Chest), Hunter Henry, Patriots DST
This matchup should be all Patriots on the road as 6.5-point favorites. Maye is playing very well right now, though very few of his weapons are reliable must-starts outside of Diggs and Henry.
Diggs did pop up on the injury report on Wednesday with a chest injury, which is the first time that had been reported. It doesn’t seem serious, as he did participate in a limited fashion. I do think Diggs bounces back this week against a Titans’ defense that is in the top half of PPR points allowed to wide receivers.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, Elic Ayomanor, Chig Okonkwo
Use your magic eight-ball to check which Patriots running back will have the better game. Both can be flexed, but you’re really hoping for a touchdown from either of them to return value. It is a great matchup, with the Titans allowing the fourth most PPR points to running backs, so you could profit if you choose wisely.
The Titans’ backfield isn’t much different, either, with either back capable of offering flex value, though the Patriots have allowed the sixth fewest PPR points to the position.
With Calvin Ridley likely out this week with a hamstring injury, Ayomanor has a prime opportunity to separate himself as the wide receiver to trust in fantasy. He’s averaging nearly six targets per game, but hasn’t capitalized on it yet. If he was going to, this would be the week to do it.
Don’t sleep on Okonkwo here, either. He has been one of Cam Ward’s most trusted options for several weeks this season, and with Ridley out, he could be that once again.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, October 19th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread CHI -4.5
Over/Under 46.5
Start’Em: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara (Ankle), Rome Odunze, Chris Olave (Hip), Bears DST
The Bears' defense has forced 12 turnovers this season and is tied for the league lead in turnover differential. While the Saints have only turned the ball over four times this season, I think that the Bears can make some things happen this week.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Kendre Miller, Rashid Shaheed
Miller continues to see a decent portion of the backfield touches, and with Kamara still working through an ankle injury, Miller could see another 8-10 touches this week, and the Bears allow the fifth most PPR points to running backs.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: DJ Moore (Hip/Groin), Luther Burden III
We will have to wait and see about Moore’s injury, which hospitalized him after their game against Washington, but I would not have him on my active roster this week. For Burden III, he still has not been able to overtake Olamide Zaccheaus in terms of route participation or target share, though he was the most productive wide receiver on the team on Monday.
I do hope (and expect) his role to continue to grow, but until it does, he remains a high-upside bench stash.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 19th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread PHI -2.5
Over/Under 43.5
Start’Em: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Jordan Mason, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, Eagles DST
It still feels like the Super Bowl Champion Eagles are trying to find an offensive identity, which is interesting considering they returned everyone of significance from last season. Perhaps the departure of Kellen Moore was an overlooked element this offseason.
I still think you have to trust the studs in this NFC matchup, as they need to continue to get Brown and Barkley more involved.
The Eagles’ defense has been pretty friendly to running backs, allowing the eighth-most PPR points this season and fourth-most over the past three weeks. Mason may be a bit undervalued at RB23 this week, as long as Minnesota can stay in this game and establish the run.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: DeVonta Smith, Jordan Addison
Smith is right on the cusp of being a must-start, as he has been just as productive as Brown. I have no qualms with someone swapping the two in rankings, but I have Smith as more of a flex-play than a must-start.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson actually hasn’t been horrible the last few weeks, considering the tight end position is volatile already, but there are much better options this week. The Eagles allow the third fewest PPR points to tight ends this season.
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 19th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread LAC -1.5
Over/Under 48.5
Start’Em: Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, Jonathan Taylor, Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, Cameron Dicker, Michael Badgley
The third-highest over/under for the week, and a tight 1.5-point spread, this one projects to be a fantasy point shootout.
If Quentin Johnston remains out with his hamstring injury, I love McConkey and Allen as must-starts. If Johnston returns and is reported as a full-go, then take your choice of which one gets relegated as a flex-play. History suggests it should be McConkey, but he is one of my must-start choices above, so I will stick to my guns there.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Kimani Vidal, Oronde Gadsden II
Many are very confident in putting Vidal as a must-start option this week, evidenced by his RB21 ranking this week. I am not so sure. I have seen this movie before, and while I think he can deliver flex-level production this week, I am not putting him among my RB2s this week.
Gadsden II offers some intriguing upside, especially while Johnston is out. He is only TE22 on FantasyPros this week, but he was second only to McConkey in targets last week and is a big-body receiving threat similar to Johnston. If Johnston is out again this week, Gadsden II is a sneaky play at tight end.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Hassan Haskins
While I don’t trust Vidal as an RB2 this week because Haskins might be more involved than some expect, I also don’t expect Haskins to return enough value to make part of your active roster this week.
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 19th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread DEN -7.5
Over/Under 40.5
Start’Em: Bo Nix, J.K. Dobbins, Cam Skattebo, Courtland Sutton, Broncos DST
The Broncos return home after a trip across the pond, and I would look for them to try and get the offense flowing in this matchup. The spread suggests this should be an easy one for the Broncos in the friendly confines of Mile High Stadium, but this plucky Giants team is coming off an inspired win against the Eagles.
While the Broncos' defense is tough and a strong DST play this week, the Broncos may need to score more points than expected to stay on top in this one. I might be inclined to take the over in this one…
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: RJ Harvey, Wan’Dale Robinson, Troy Franklin
The Giants allow the third most PPR points to wide receivers, opening the door for an option other than Sutton to flex into some fantasy production. Franklin has been that guy a couple of times this season, so he would be my choice.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Evan Engram, Theo Johnson
Both of the primary tight end options are mid-TE2 options this week, and neither team allows much to the position. Despite both of their recent production, look elsewhere.
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 19th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread GB -6.5
Over/Under 44.5
Start’Em: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft, Trey McBride, Packers DST
The Cardinals' defense started well this season, but they struggled against the Colts last week. For the season, they have performed well against quarterbacks and wide receivers but struggle against running backs and tight ends.
The Packers bring in a balanced attack that can hurt you in many different ways, but they spread it out enough where I only trust Jacobs and Kraft among Love’s available weapons as must-start options.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Matthew Golden, Romeo Doubs, Marvin Harrison Jr. (Concussion)
If Harrison Jr. plays, I would flex him. Golden and Doubs continue to fight for slices of a low-volume passing pie. Golden is the more explosive home run threat, while Doubs is the more trusted option for Love (at the moment).
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Zonovan “Bam” Knight (Knee), Michael Carter
I am fading both of these backs, with Knight having taken the job from Carter last week, and now tending to a knee issue in practice this week, I am steering clear of this backfield. The Packers are allowing the fourth fewest PPR points to running backs, so I don’t expect either to be particularly effective.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 19th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread DAL -1.5
Over/Under 54.5
Start’Em: Dak Prescott, Jayden Daniels, Javonte Williams, Bill Croskey-Merritt, CeeDee Lamb (Ankle), George Pickens, Deebo Samuel Sr. (Heel), Jake Ferguson, Matt Gay
The spread has flipped on this one over the week from Washington -1.5 to Dallas -1.5.
One of the highest over/unders all season, this one should be an entertaining matchup in the later slate of games. Lamb is expected back, and Samuel Sr. will likely play as well, though I think he will be limited most of the week as he nurses his heel injury.
With Terry McLaurin ruled out again this week, Samuel Sr. is a very strong option, if active, against the Cowboys, who have allowed the most PPR points to wide receivers this season.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Zach Ertz
I like Ertz as a speculative low-end TE1 this week, especially with McLaurin out this week. The Cowboys have allowed the 13th fewest PPR points to tight ends, though over the past three weeks, they are allowing 15.2ppg to the position, which is 14th during that span.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 19th, 8:20 PM EST
Spread SF -2.5
Over/Under 47.5
Start’Em: Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Drake London, George Kittle (Hamstring), Eddie Pineiro
Kittle was limited on Wednesday and Thursday and has not yet been activated to the roster, but if he is playing, you start him.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Tyler Allgeier, Ricky Pearsall (Knee), Jauan Jennings (Everything), Kendrick Bourne, Darnell Mooney (Hamstring), Kyle Pitts Sr.
Pearsall did not practice at all on Wednesday or Thursday, so we will need to watch this heading into the weekend. Jennings is dealing with a myriad of injuries, but was at least limited in practice. He remains a flex option, as does Bourne, given the depleted nature of the 49ers' pass-catching group.
Pitts Sr. comes in at TE16 this week, though I think he could easily outperform that. With linebacker Fred Warner out for the season, Pitts Sr. could take advantage of Warner’s absence.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Monday, October 20th, 7:00 PM EST
Spread DET -5.5
Over/Under 52.5
Start’Em: Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Rachaad White, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mike Evans (Hamstring), Sam LaPorta, Cade Otton, Chase McLaughlin, Jake Bates
If Evans is active this week, he is a must-start for me, given the injuries at wide receiver for the Bucs. Since it’s a Monday night game, you may not have that option, so plan accordingly. If you’re taking the chance, slot him in your flex and be prepared to pivot if necessary based on Monday options you have on the bench or available free agents.
Otton has moved down to TE14 on FantasyPros, but I really like him as a low-end TE1 this week as he should continue to see extra targets with everyone other than Evans being out.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: David Montgomery, Jameson Williams, Sterling Shepard
I like Shepard more than the other non-Evans wide receiver options this week. He is likely to see more volume than Tez Johnson, Ryan Miller, or Kameron Johnson.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Sean Tucker, Tez Johnson
I don’t think that Tucker will factor much into this game. The Lions’ defense has the highest pass rate over expected against according to Draft Sharks, as teams are often trying to play catch-up.
Also, as mentioned above, I would avoid starting Tez Johnson this week. I am a big fan of his, but his lower volume role would mean you would need a fluky deep touchdown like last week for it to pay off.
Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks
Monday, October 20th, 10:00 PM EST
Spread SEA -3.5
Over/Under 41.5
Start’Em: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Nico Collins, Jason Myers, Ka’imi Fairbairn, Seahawks DST, Texans DST
With two pretty good defenses, this lower over/under shouldn’t be surprising, but it does limit your starting options. JSN and Collins are really the only offensive weapons I am leaning on this week. Both kickers and both DSTs are very much in play here, though.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, Woody Marks, Nick Chubb, Christian Kirk, Cooper Kupp
You can easily take your chances on most of the other secondary options on both teams. Kirk is someone you may not feel the need to play, but he is only 26% rostered in Yahoo leagues, so he could be an emergency pivot if you are an Evans owner and he ends up not being active.
I will be interested to see how the Chubb/Marks split works out after the bye. Many (myself included) bought into the Marks takeover, which ended up being premature. Chubb may hang onto the job for now, but his injury history presents a strong case for Marks to have a flex-worthy role weekly with contingent injury upside.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else