Week four resulted in several unfortunate injuries for key players, most importantly for them and their actual NFL teams, and consequently, for our fantasy teams as well. Both Malik Nabers and Tyreek Hill suffered season-ending injuries, making the Giants and the Dolphins look elsewhere to replace their production.
It will be nearly impossible for fantasy managers to achieve a one-for-one return when replacing these guys in their lineups, so how you executed on the waiver wire this week will be crucial. Did you take chances on other pieces in those offenses, or look elsewhere?
Several other players we have been relying on this season are going to miss some time this week as well, and with week five being the first week of byes and four teams off the table, there are many more decisions to be made for your starting lineups.
In our start/sit series this season, we will use FantasyPros weekly consensus rankings for point per reception (PPR) scoring as a reference. I will go game by game, identifying the must-start players, those worthy of a matchup consideration or flex plays and deeper leagues, and the fantasy fades/concerns whose matchup or recent performance should give fantasy managers pause.
I will also be using FFtoday as a reference for points allowed metrics at each position. These should be taken with a grain of salt as reference only this early in the season, though they will get more relevant as we get further in the season. Spreads and over/unders are from ESPN and are accurate as of the writing of this article.
Recommendations will be based on 12-team leagues, so often they will be reflected within the top-12 quarterback and tight end rankings and the top-24 running back and wide receiver rankings on FantasyPros at the time of this article’s writing. Obviously, your roster construction may dictate that players who are listed as matchup considerations or flex plays are actually your best available RB1/2 or WR1/2.
Player ranked outside the top-12 for quarterback, tight end, DST, and kicker, and outside the top-24 for running back and wide receiver, who I am listing as must-starts, will be underlined, and I will spend the most time discussing them. Likewise, if they are within these top rankings and I have them as matchups/flex or fades, I will also underline their names and discuss them.
Without further ado, let's dive into those Week 5 matchups!
Week 5 Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers
Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 5th, 9:30 AM EST (London, England)
Spread MIN -3.5
Over/Under 36.5
Must Starts: Quinshon Judkins, Jordan Mason, Justin Jefferson, Browns DST, Vikings DST
This should be an ugly defensive slugfest. I don’t anticipate either team taking a commanding lead, which should dictate both teams leaning on the run game. Both defenses are top five in sack rate this season, and one team has a very sackable quarterback in Carson Wentz, and the other team has rookie, Dillon Gabriel, making his first career start.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jerry Jeudy, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, David Njoku, Harold Fannin Jr.
Outside of Jefferson, the other pass catchers are flex plays at best. Hockenson is TE13 in the rankings this week, and the Browns are allowing the eighth fewest points to tight ends, and Hockenson has had one strong game and one dud with Wentz at quarterback.
Jeudy, Njoku, and Fannin Jr. could benefit from the absence of Cedric Tillman Jr., though rookie Isaiah Bond is starting to emerge as well. With Gabriel under center, it will be interesting to see who he leans on here.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets
Sunday, October 5th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread DAL -2.5
Over/Under 47.5
Must Starts: Dak Prescott, Justin Fields, Javonte Williams, Breece Hall, George Pickens, Garrett Wilson, Jake Ferguson, Brandon Aubrey
I predict very consolidated weapon usage in this game, as nearly everyone who is viable for fantasy is a top 12-24 option. With the over/under tied for second this week and a tight 2.5-point spread, expect very little defensive resistance.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Nada
See the above comment about consolidation. Injuries to the Cowboys' receiving corps and the Jets' backfield leave more question marks than answers, and I expect both teams to lean on the top offensive options on their respective teams.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, October 5th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread PHI -3.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, J.K. Dobbins, Courtland Sutton, Dallas Goedert, Eagles DST
The biggest surprise to some is who is left off this list, which probably shouldn’t be a surprise, and I will elaborate below. The Eagles' defense is starting to find its groove, producing double-digit fantasy outputs each of the last two weeks against the Rams and the Buccaneers.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: RJ Harvey, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith
Brown, who is FantasyPros WR21 this week, has spent more time on a milk carton this season than actual missing children. After another quiet outing in week four, he posted a cryptic message on X, leading many to believe he remains unhappy with the situation in Philadelphia.
He also faces Patrick Surtain II this week, which has been a very bad matchup for wide receivers. Despite being ranked as a top-24 option this week, I can’t in good conscious label him a must-start.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 5th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread HOU -2.5
Over/Under 41.5
Must Starts: Derrick Henry, Woody Marks, Nico Collins, Zay Flowers, Ravens DST, Texans DST, Tyler Loop, Ka’imi Fairbairn
This line has shifted during the week, opening at -3.5 in favor of the Ravens with an over/under of 43.5. It is now in favor of the Texans by 2.5, with a slightly lower over/under of 41.5.
I am taking the bait on Jo'quavious "Woody" Marks, as his role has grown each week in terms of snaps, carries, and work as a receiver. He displayed all of that in week four, producing 119 total yards from scrimmage, four receptions, and two total touchdowns. I think Nick Chubb has served admirably in his role as Marks’s placeholder, but it feels as though the baton has been handed off.
The Texans are currently the 13th-ranked DST for the week, but I would not be surprised to see them move into the top 10-12 by the end of the week. Lamar Jackson will likely be out this week, giving Cooper Rush the start at quarterback. The Texans' DST has played well this season, and they could take advantage of this opportunity.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Nick Chubb, Justice Hill, Mark Andrews
Though Chubb appears to have been relegated to a lesser role, the game script may allow him to still provide floor-level production in a week with several starting running back options on bye.
Hill and Andrews have been getting more involved in the past couple of weeks, though with Rush at quarterback, it is hard to know how the Ravens will deploy their weapons. Both could see additional work as home underdogs and the possibility of more short and intermediate targets.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Christian Kirk
Coming in as WR46 on the week, some may be considering him as a deeper flex play. He has yet to emerge as a weapon on this offense, yet, after returning from his hamstring injury. I am looking elsewhere this week if I am desperate.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 5th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread IND -6.5
Over/Under 47.5
Must Starts: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Ashton Jeanty, Michael Pittman Jr. (Hamstring), Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers (Knee), Tyler Warren, Colts DST, Spencer Shrader
Similar to the Cowboys/Jets game, a very consolidated group of weapons on both sides, resulting in quite a few must-start options and very few ancillary options as flex plays.
Meyers has been quiet the last couple of weeks, but this is a great opportunity with the Colts allowing the third most PPR points to wide receivers and the Raiders entering as 6.5-point underdogs.
Pittman Jr. popped up on the injury report on Thursday with a hamstring injury, and he was listed as a limited participant. Similarly, Bowers has been limited the past couple of days with his lingering knee injury. Both are worth monitoring.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Josh Downs
I may be willing to jump back on the Downs train this week if Pittman Jr. misses this game.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 5th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread MIA -1.5
Over/Under 44.5
Must Starts: De’Von Achane, Rico Dowdle, Tetairoa McMillan, Jaylen Waddle
Another line that has shifted from Carolina to Miami over the past few days.
A battle between two middling offensive teams with playmakers missing on both sides is countered by both teams having horrible defenses. This should allow both teams' primary weapons to see most of the work.
It was announced Friday morning that Chuba Hubbard will miss this week with a calf injury and is considered week-to-week. With that news being fresh, rankings haven’t fully adjusted, but this elevates Dowdle into top-24 running back territory for me, making him a must-start against a Miami defense allowing the 11th most PPR points to running backs.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Malik Washington, Darren Waller (Hip/Rest)
A preseason sleeper and a player whom Tua Tagovailoa mentioned he had built some chemistry with during the offseason is Washington. He has received limited targets during the first four weeks, though the team has also given him a couple of carries every week in an attempt to get the speedy playmaker the ball.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington sees a decent uptick in his workload moving forward with Tyreek Hill out for the season.
Waller returned like a fantasy zombie in week four and had two touchdowns on everyone’s bench (or more likely, waiver wire). Tight end is a weird position, and the Dolphins certainly need people to throw the ball to, so Waller could be a break-glass type for your team this week.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 5th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread NO -1.5
Over/Under 41.5
Must Starts: Cam Skattebo, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson (Ankle)
A few must-start options here, with Olave sneaking in the top-24 with several wide receivers on bye who would likely be ahead of him otherwise. He is averaging over 10 targets per game, and finally had a touchdown last week. The volume is there.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jaxson Dart, Kendre Miller, Wan’dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Rashid Shaheed, Theo Johnson, Saints DST, Giants DST
With the devastating loss of Malik Nabers last week, the Giants will be looking for answers amongst the remaining pass catchers. Depending on who you ask, Slayton may be the more valuable asset, as he has historically been the bigger-play wide receiver.
Robinson, though, has shown the ability to both play as a possession receiver as well as offer something as a deep threat. With Nabers out, the Giants will look to game plan without him this week, and hopefully, we will start to see this week who Dart prefers.
FantasyPros has Robinson as WR23 this week, though I would put him slightly further down, making him more of a flex-worthy play.
Don’t sleep on Johnson either, as he is an extremely athletic and fast tight end with a strong Penn State tight end pedigree. Though modest yardage production last week, he delivered a touchdown, which, at the tight end position, will normally put you amongst the top-12 at the position weekly…
With the third-lowest over/under on the week, it seems risky to have this many players in consideration for must-start or flex options. That said, both defenses might be in play, as they are both top-half in the league in points allowed to DSTs this season. They both have double-digit sacks on the year, as well as multiple turnovers.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 5th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread SEA -3.5
Over/Under 45.5
Must Starts: Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White, Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Emeka Egbuka, Seahawks DST, Jason Myers, Chase McLaughlin
White becomes a must-start option with Bucky Irving missing week five with a foot injury. White has surprisingly been the more effective/efficient runner this season, and still offers receiving upside that we have seen in prior seasons.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Sean Tucker, Zach Charbonnet, Chris Godwin Jr., Cooper Kupp
Some believe that Tucker will take on the lead-back role; he has shown flashes in the past in limited work. I am not one of those people, though White certainly won’t receive all of the backfield carries.
The Seahawks allow the 14th most PPR points to running backs while also allowing the most receiving yards to the position. With Seattle being a home favorite, the game script may lean towards this being a pass-centric game, which would favor White, but if you are desperate and want to roll the dice, I added Tucker to this list as a speculative deeper-league flex play.
Godwin Jr. returned to action last week and tied Egbuka for the most targets with 10, though he only converted that into three catches for 26 yards. With that type of target share, as he works himself back into game shape, and especially while Mike Evans is out, he could easily deliver solid WR3 numbers in your flex spot.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Tennessee Titans @ Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 5th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread ARI -7.5
Over/Under 42.5
Must Starts: Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, Cardinals DST, Chad Ryland
This is an ugly matchup that I can see the Cardinals playing ball control with a narrow target tree going mostly to McBride, and leaning on their defense to put this game away early.
That said, I am very conflicted about putting both Murray and Harrison Jr. in the must-start territory, but the byes and overall situation have pushed me over the edge to keep them in this category. Let me explain my conundrum.
Despite his QB9 ranking this week, Murray hasn’t really lived up to this ranking. Courtesy of Derek Brown, Murray’s has finished as QB16, QB22, QB16, and QB16. Not great. And while the Cardinals are 7.5-point favorites at home, the Titans have given up the 11th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Harrison Jr. just hasn’t looked great, with some really bad drops and a lack of effort at times. While FantasyPros has him ranked WR24 this week (it has moved down from WR23 earlier in the week), other sites have him well outside the top-24, which aligns with what I have seen thus far. I still trust him more than I do others who are ranked top-24 this week.
The Titans allow the fifth most PPR points to wide receivers, and I think the Cardinals may use this game to help get the passing game back on track. Murray continues to express confidence in MHJ, so let’s see if they can get things cooking this week.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Tony Pollard, Emari Demercado, Michael Carter
Part of the reason the Titans haven’t allowed that much production to quarterbacks is that they can be run on. The Titans have given up the fourth-most PPR points to running backs this season.
Though Trey Benson was recently put on IR, Demercado has filled in well when called upon in the past. He is an efficient runner, averaging six yards per carry for his career, and is a capable pass catcher, earning over 50 targets with his limited role over the past three seasons.
Carter indicated he would be starting this week, but it’s hard to know what to make of that. This puts him in the flex conversation as well, but don’t be surprised if this is a frustrating timeshare. I lean towards Demercado as he has been trusted on the field thus far in the season.
Pollard is also a flex-level guy for me this week despite his RB23 ranking. While the Cardinals have given up the eighth most PPR points to running backs this season, a good portion of those have come through the air, where they have given up the seventh most receiving yards and two touchdowns to the position.
With that, Tyjae Spears may return this week, who is a very good pass catcher. Pollard has not been terribly efficient on the ground behind the bad Titans offensive line, and they have not relied on him as a receiving weapon, earning only nine targets all season.
If Spears does return, this keeps Pollard as a flex option for me. If Spears doesn’t return, I would probably move him up a little bit, and he would be a borderline must-start.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, October 5th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread DET -10.5
Over/Under 49.5
Must Starts: Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Sam LaPorta, Jake Bates, Lions DST
Road Goff, outdoor Goff, no problem. This Bengals defense has been more like our family’s new kitten when facing quarterbacks, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to the position this season. Goff may get most of his production in the first half before they take the foot off the gas, but I still expect a strong output.
Expect both Gibbs and Montgomery to get plenty of run here, with Monty getting mop-up duty against the Bengals' defense that has allowed the second-most PPR points to running backs.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jameson Williams, Tee Higgins
If you watched last week’s game between the Bengals and Broncos, you could see the concerted effort by Jake Browning and the Bengals to take shots to Higgins. Higgins had 79 air yards, compared to Chase’s 46. They just couldn’t connect.
It doesn’t get much easier this week, as Higgins faces Player Profiler’s 10th-ranked cornerback D.J. Reed. Regardless, Higgins’s usage makes him a high-ceiling flex play.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 5th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread LAC -2.5
Over/Under 47.5
Must Starts: Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, Zach Ertz, Deebo Samuel Sr., Cameron Dicker
Until the Chargers give us a reason to think otherwise, Johnston and Allen are going to be ranked ahead of Ladd McConkey. Nothing has changed with McConkey; he is still getting separation and is still objectively good at football. He’s simply fallen victim to Herbert’s BFF coming back to town and a year-three breakout for Johnston.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Ladd McConkey, Bill Croskey-Merritt, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Chargers DST, Matt Gay
If you can afford to flex McConkey, that’s what you have to do. Croskey-Merritt’s breakout hasn’t happened yet, but with the Commanders getting Daniels back this week, they may start to resemble a bit more of who they want to be going forward.
The Chargers DST generated six sacks against the Giants last week, and the Commanders have given up 10 sacks so far this season, so the Chargers DST is a decent streamer if you struck out on the top-12 options this week.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 5th, 8:20 PM EST
Spread BUF -7.5
Over/Under 49.5
Must Starts: Drake Maye, Josh Allen, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Bills DST, Matt Prater
All of the usual suspects here. Many have called Maye Josh Allen-lite, and this will be his opportunity to show the world in primetime if he is worthy of that label.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman
The remaining weapons in this matchup are decent flex plays. Right after I dropped Diggs in my home league, he punished me with a six-reception, 101-yard game. The Patriots will probably have to throw to keep up here, though Diggs is facing Player Profiler’s sixth-ranked cornerback, Taron Johnson, who should be very familiar with Diggs, having played with him in Buffalo two years ago.
Henderson hasn’t taken over this backfield yet, as it remains an ugly three-headed committee with Stevenson and Antonio Gibson getting over 68% of the rush share last week. Henderson only received two targets, fewer than we are hoping for based on his anticipated role in this offense. This will continue to be a flex-type situation until something more definitive happens.
This Bills’ passing attack is similar to the Green Bay Packers, with no one earning more than an 18.48% target share. That keeps both Shakir and Coleman as flex options.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday, October 6th, 8:15 PM EST
Spread KC -3.5
Over/Under 46.5
Must Starts: Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Etienne Jr., Xavier Worthy, Brenton Strange, Harrison Butker
Most noteworthy here are Worthy and Strange, as Worthy works his way back into the mid-to-low WR2 range after a strong return to action last week. Strange has been receiving consistent target share and has had consistent production with it, one of the only things working for this Jaguars' passing game.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Brian Thomas Jr., Bhayshul Tuten, Chiefs DST
Like Ladd McConkey, Thomas Jr. has not been producing to expectations. He has done slightly better than McConkey, but he just hasn’t delivered based on his draft capital. The good news for him is that he is undoubtedly the best option on his team (sorry, Travis Hunter stans). The bad news is it hasn’t mattered.
This is another one where, until something changes, whether that is usage or better quarterback play, I cannot call him a must-start (top-24 option). His FantasyPros ranking WAS WR24 earlier this week and currently sits at WR25, but he also faces Player Profiler’s 11th-ranked cornerback, Trent McDuffie, so it won’t get any easier for him on Monday.
There has been a lot of smoke coming out of Kansas City about their intention to get rookie running back Brashard Smith more involvement moving forward. Not only have Pacheco and Hunt been mediocre fantasy assets this season, now the team also wants to get Smith more involved. You could flex either, and hope for a touchdown like Pacheco bailed you out with last week.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Brashard Smith
This is a situation to monitor, as Smith may find himself on this flex list as early as next week. FantasyPros has moved him up to RB44 as of Friday morning, firmly in desperation flex-territory, but I would rather see a prove-it game first.