Week three had some surprises, with the Dolphins putting up more of a fight than expected, the Browns winning in dramatic fashion, the Panthers blanking the Falcons, and the Lions giving the Ravens a home loss.
From a fantasy perspective, we had guys like Caleb Williams and Tre Tucker lead all scorers. We had dud performances from studs like Ja’Marr Chase, Brian Thomas Jr. (again), and Malik Nabers.
Total scoring was down from week two, with the average game providing 46.3 points compared to 49.8 points the previous week, though both were up from the snoozefest in week one at 41.3 points.
As some team dynamics are starting to come more into focus and teams are making unforced personnel changes and some forced by injury, week four is shaping up to be another interesting data point for fantasy managers.
In our start/sit series this season, we will use FantasyPros weekly consensus rankings for point per reception (PPR) scoring as a reference. I will go game by game, identifying the must-start players, those worthy of a matchup consideration or flex plays and deeper leagues, and the fantasy fades/concerns whose matchup or recent performance should give fantasy managers pause.
I will also be using FFtoday as a reference for points allowed metrics at each position. These should be taken with a grain of salt as reference only this early in the season, though they will get more relevant as we get further in the season. Spreads and over/unders are from ESPN and are accurate as of the writing of this article.
Recommendations will be based on 12-team leagues, so often they will be reflected within the top-12 quarterback and tight end rankings and the top-24 running back and wide receiver rankings on FantasyPros. Obviously, your roster construction may dictate that players who are listed as matchup considerations or flex plays are actually your best available RB1/2 or WR1/2.
Player ranked outside the top-12 for quarterback, tight end, DST, and kicker, and outside the top-24 for running back and wide receiver, who I am listing as must-starts, will be underlined, and I will spend the most time discussing them. Likewise, if they are within these top rankings and I have them as matchups/flex or fades, I will also underline their names and discuss them. Without further ado, let's dive into those week four matchups!
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, September 28th, 9:30 AM EST (Dublin, Ireland)
Spread MIN -2.5
Over/Under 40.5
Must Starts: Jordan Mason, Jaylen Warren, Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf, TJ Hockenson, Vikings DST, Chris Boswell
Despite being ranked outside of the top 24 wide receivers this week, Metcalf is still a WR2 for me, making him a must-start. I would like to see more targets come his way, though he has scored in each of the last two games. I also expect Aaron Rodgers to have to throw it more, closer to what we saw in the first two games.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jordan Addison, Steelers DST
If you rostered Addison, waiting on his suspension, you could throw him in your flex if you need some help. FantasyPros has him as WR40, putting him right in WR4 territory.
The Steelers' defense has not been as we have expected so far this year, allowing the third most points to quarterbacks, 16th most points to running backs, 15th most points to wide receivers, and the second most points to tight ends. The Vikings destroyed a terrible Bengals defense last week and did not turn the ball over, though Carson Wentz did get sacked three times.
Given the implied point total of 21.5 points for the Vikings, you will be relying on the Steelers to get pressure on Wentz, come up with some sacks, and create interception opportunities. They are ranked as DST10 for the week, but their performance thus far does not warrant a must-start status for me.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Kenneth Gainwell
I wouldn’t be fooled by Gainwell’s production. He is ranked as RB41 for the week, and given other players ranked similarly, especially at wide receiver, I would look elsewhere.
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Sunday, September 28th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread NE -5.5
Over/Under 42.5
Must Starts: Drake Maye, Chuba Hubbard (Calf), Tetairoa McMillan, Hunter Henry, Patriots DST
Henry appears to be Maye’s number one target, proving to be a super reliable must-start option at tight end.
Hubbard popped up on Thursday’s practice report as limited with a calf injury. This will be something to monitor, and if he is out, this may move Rico Dowdle into flex-worthy territory.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: TreVeyon Henderson
We will see if the New England coaching staff is finally sick of the fumbling issues in their backfield and let Henderson loose this week. It is a decent opportunity for him, as the Panthers allow the 14th most PPR points to running backs.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Stefon Diggs
Diggs has been disappointing this year, earning fewer targets each of the last three weeks. No reports are suggesting the recovery from his injury is the cause, so until I see him become more involved, I will look to higher upside plays in my starting lineup.
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Sunday, September 28th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread DET -10.5
Over/Under 44.5
Must Starts: Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Lions DST
The only real hesitancy in this game at all is that the Browns' defense has been very good, which keeps this over/under tied for the eight lowest on the week. The Lions are at home now and rolling after a rough week one, so I am starting my primary Lions weapons.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Quinshon Judkins, David Montgomery, Jameson Williams, Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman (Hand), David Njoku, Harold Fannin Jr.
Judkins is slowly moving towards must-start territory. He comes in at RB27 on the week, though, with the Browns playing from behind, his unknown role in the passing game caps his upside. The rest of the Browns' pass catchers are all flexes at best, as no one has emerged as the “go-to” target earner.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Jake Bates
Despite his K7 ranking on the week, Detroit’s more aggressive play calling has put them near the bottom half of the league, averaging only two field goal attempts per game. Depending on your scoring format, he’s around 20th in average points per game. The weekly consensus ranking doesn’t align with what the deeper dive numbers reveal, at least for this week.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants
Sunday, September 28th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread LAC -6.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, Ladd McConkey, Chargers DST, Cameron Dicker
Despite a lower over/under for this game, there are lots of starting options. The one I will plant my flag on this week, who is outside of the top 24-ranked players, is Skattebo. He comes in as RB25, but he will get the majority of the work with Tyrone Tracy Jr. out.
He will be used in the passing game, and I also expect Jaxson Dart to spark this offense. He adds a rushing threat that could make this team a bit more dynamic, which could help Skattebo, among others.
Also, something worth monitoring is Hampton’s use in the passing game. There was a lot of discussion during the offseason about the lack of targets for running backs in Harbaugh/Roman-led offenses. However, Hampton received seven targets last week, converting those into six catches for 59 yards.
It may have been isolated to that game script, or it could be a sign of things to come for Hampton. If the latter is true, it could prove to be huge for Hampton’s upside, especially in PPR formats.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Wan’Dale Robinson
I love Allen as a player, though I feel a lot better about flexing him than relying on him as a WR2. FantasyPros has him as WR23 this week, which is fair based on what he has done so far, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Hampton, McConkey, and even newly unveiled weapon Oronde Gadsden II to get more involved this week.
Johnston provides a high-ceiling flex play option, whereas Robinson is more of a high PPR floor flex play.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday, September 28th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread BUF -15.5
Over/Under 47.5
Must Starts: Josh Allen, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Dalton Kincaid, Juwan Johnson, Bills DST, Matt Prater
No surprises here, except maybe the point spread. This could easily spell disaster for the Saints, but it could also provide some garbage-time production for Olave, Kamara, and Johnson. The Saints are tied for the most offensive plays per game and third most pass attempts per game, which creates a larger opportunity for fantasy points.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Rashid Shaheed, Khalil Shakir
Shaheed is ranked outside of the top 48 wide receivers this week, but I think his speed and play-making ability make him a boom/bust flex play if you are desperate and are looking for a long touchdown. The Saints will need to throw a lot to keep up (if they can).
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Keon Coleman
Coleman is right on the edge of WR4 territory, and outside of his first game, where he was targeted 11 times, he hasn’t done much else. I don’t expect this to be a game where Allen and the Bills see the need to air it out much, so Coleman will be on my bench this week.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, September 28th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread PHI -3.5
Over/Under 44.5
Must Starts: Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, AJ Brown, Eagles DST, Chase McLaughlin
Egbuka was a must-start before the Evans injury, and now finds himself ranked among the upper-end WR2s for the week. With the Eagles still trying to find their footing on defense, it keeps guys like him and Irving as must-starts.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Baker Mayfield (Bicep), DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
This is a rough spot for Mayfield, though he has finished as a QB1 two of the last three weeks; he is getting beaten up in the process. He has taken six sacks, has rushed twelve times on the season, and has taken big hits, fumbling twice. He is currently battling a bicep injury, but everything points to him playing this week.
While the Eagles haven’t been consistent on defense yet, they are still only allowing the 23rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks, so if you have better options, you can sit Mayfield. Other quarterback injuries may force you to play him, however.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Rachaad White
The Eagles are allowing the 13th fewest PPR points to running backs on the season, but even worse for White, they have only allowed seven receptions for 35 yards. White has primarily been used as a pass catcher in his career, though this season, he has seen a dip in his targets and is still only seeing about 23% of the running back rush share. Despite his ranking of RB40 this week, I would look elsewhere.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Sunday, September 28th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread HOU -7.5
Over/Under 39.5
Must Starts: Nico Collins, Texans DST, Ka’imi Fairbairn, Joey Slye
The spread indicates the struggling Texans should roll this week, but the low over/under and lack of consistent production on offense leave very few startable options.
Slye has quietly made eight field goals on the season, with four of them from 50+ yards, making him the top scoring kicker depending on your scoring format. Field goals seem to be the only thing the Titans can do well right now.
They are content on playing conservatively with field goals, and I don’t think the rankers have caught on to this trend yet, ranking him K25 for the week. He has been doing this all season, despite being underdogs, so I don’t see why that changes this week.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Tony Pollard, Nick Chubb, Woody Marks, Calvin Ridley, Elic Ayomanor
While Chubb remains the primary ball carrier in Houston, Marks has seen his backfield snaps increase week over week from 11% in week one, to 27% week two, and 48% last week. His route rate has also increased from 10% in week one to 40% in week three.
With his increased snap share, an opportunity to see more time in this game, and the Texans being heavy favorites, Marks could be a boom/bust flex play this week.
For the Titans' pass catchers, the only reason Ridley is still ranked ahead of Ayomanor is due to preseason bias. He has out-produced Ridley on three fewer targets and has the only two receiving touchdowns on the team.
Ridley’s WR40 ranking versus Ayomanor’s WR54 ranking should be closer, and given the choice between the two, I would have a hard time not choosing Ayomanor over Ridley.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, September 28th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread ATL -1.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Deebo Samuel Sr., Zach Ertz, Commanders DST
The spread has changed on this game, with the Falcons now 1.5-point favorites, having opened as 1.5-point underdogs to start the week.
I have Pitts as a must-start despite his TE13 ranking for the week. I prefer him over guys like Travis Kelce, who is ranked TE10.
With Terry McLaurin out with a quad/sports hernia/hip flexor injury, Samuel Sr. and Ertz are probably going to see a lot of targets. I also like the Commanders DST (DST16 ranking) this week against Michael Penix Jr., who has been struggling this season.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Bill Croskey-Merritt (Knee), Darnell Mooney
Keep an eye on Croskey-Merritt’s practice report and status heading into the game, as he has been limited all week dealing with a knee injury. If he is out, the Commanders’ running backs discussed below likely move up into the flex conversation.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Tyler Allgeier, Jeremy McNichols, Chris Rodriguez Jr.
All three of these running backs are ranked inside the top 48 this week, and they are all extremely low-floor options for me with little upside. There are a few guys outside of the top 48 that offer similar, if not better, upside.
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, September 28th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread LAR -3.5
Over/Under 49.5
Must Starts: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davonte Adams (Hamstring), Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, Spencer Shrader
Who would have guessed that this game would have the highest over/under in week four? With plenty of points projected to be scored, nearly everyone on these offenses is a must-start option.
Pittman Jr. is ranked as WR29 this week, but he is a must-start for me. The Rams are allowing the 10th most PPR points to wide receivers, and Pittman Jr. is projected to face Player Profiler’s 50th-ranked cornerback in Cobie Durant.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Blake Corum
Corum, like Marks discussed above, continues to see increased workloads. I wrote about him as a speculative stash heading into week three, and while Williams had a nice game, Corum still saw his carries increase from five in week two to eight in week three. There could be an opportunity in this game for everyone to eat, including guys like Corum.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, September 28th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread SF -3.5
Over/Under 46.5
Must Starts: Christian McCaffrey, Ricky Pearsall (Knee), Travis Etienne Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Eddy Pineiro
Pearsall popped up on the injury report this week with a knee injury, but he has indicated he feels fine and should suit up Sunday. And it is still a little too early to give up on Thomas Jr., but his ranking of WR22 this week shows that the fantasy community is close to making him more of a flex consideration than a must-start WR1/2.
After parting ways with Jake Moody, Pineiro has stepped in as the kicker for the 49ers and has made all five of his field goals with a long of 51 yards. Being 3.5-point favorites at home, I would expect a few more field goal opportunities for him this week.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Bhayshul Tuten (Shoulder), 49ers DST
Tuten is still wearing a red non-contact jersey during practice this week with a shoulder injury, though he did that last week and still played. I think he is a nice upside flex play this week.
Though they are DST12 this week, I don’t love the 49ers DST with Nick Bosa out for the season with an ACL injury.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Travis Hunter
The preseason ‘hopium’ has turned into in-season ‘copium’. His defensive snaps have increased week over week from 10% in week one to 60% in week two to 69% last week. Meanwhile, his targets have decreased from eight in week one, to six in week two, to two last week. He has also not looked great on offense outside of designed plays to target him.
All of this is with BTJ struggling as well. This may be more of a Trevor Lawrence issue than anything, but Hunter has not (and will not) be in my lineups until something drastically changes and in a consistent way.
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 28th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread BAL -2.5
Over/Under 48.5
Must Starts: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Travis Kelce, Tyler Loop, Harrison Butker
I pointed out heading into week two that Flowers’s usage/volume would be inconsistent week to week based on historical data, and week three saw that come to fruition despite 27 pass attempts from Lamar Jackson. What should be another shootout, though, Flowers should be in your lineups.
Look, I have had Kelce as a must-start each of the last three weeks. Because the tight end position is a wasteland, it has actually worked out as he has finished as a TE1 in two of three weeks. I am going back to the well this week, as the Ravens allow the seventh most PPR points to tight ends. Even with Worthy returning, I still think Mahomes looks towards Kelce in this matchup.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy, Mark Andrews
Andrews proved me wrong last week, as I told everyone to avoid him. This week, I’ll dip my toes into the water just a little bit and say you could start him if you needed to. The Chiefs are the third-best team against tight ends in PPR scoring this season, so I don’t know how much I would expect from him, but he could deliver with a touchdown.
This running game from the Chiefs is gross. But the Ravens can be run on; they have allowed the most PPR fantasy points to running backs this season, and opposing running backs have done well on the ground and through the air.
Flip a coin between Pacheco and Hunt, as both could return value with a touchdown or through sheer volume on the ground if the game script allows it.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Justice Hill, Hollywood Brown
Both of these players find themselves just inside the top 48 at their respective positions, but with Worthy returning and Baltimore likely wanting to play more ball control, I see better options I’d rather play. I don’t expect Henry to continue his fumbling issues, either.
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, September 28th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread LV -1.5
Over/Under 48.5
Must Starts: Caleb Williams, Ashton Jeanty, Rome Odunze, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers
The spread on this game has shifted back and forth all week. It started out as -1.5 in favor of Las Vegas, then shifted to Chicago -1.5 mid week. It is now back to Las Vegas -1.5 with an over/under going from 47.5 to 48.5.
Williams is now QB3 on the season after his performance against Dallas last week. While not every team is Dallas, Las Vegas isn’t much better, as they have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: D’Andre Swift (Hip/Quad), Tre Tucker
Swift has slowly crept out of RB2 territory and has been limited in practice this week with hip and quad injuries. He has an RB28 ranking this week, and with guys like Judkins, Skattebo, Trey Benson, among others, emerging and Swift being inefficient as a runner thus far, he’s no more than a flex option right now.
Tucker has been a surprise for a lot of people, having a decent performance week one and then putting up a 40-burger in PPR leagues in week three with eight receptions on nine targets, turning that into 145 yards and three touchdowns. While he probably won’t continue at the same pace, the usage feels real, and the upside is certainly there to be a boom/bust flex play most weeks.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: DJ Moore
Don’t look at the box score. Moore bailed out fantasy managers who started him last week with a late touchdown catch. He wasn’t even targeted until the Bears' fourth offensive possession. It feels like Moore is being phased out of this offense, and it is just a matter of time before he is packing his bags.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, September 28th, 8:20 PM EST
Spread GB -6.5
Over/Under 47.5
Must Starts: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, George Pickens, Tucker Kraft (Knee), Jake Ferguson, Packers DST, Brandon Aubrey, Brandon McManus
The Cowboys' defense is awful, just ask Caleb Williams. Love should have a field day.
With CeeDee Lamb out, Pickens and Ferguson should get a huge target share, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dak Prescott sling it 45+ times.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Matthew Golden, Javonte Williams
The Golden breakout is so close I can almost taste it. He was only targeted four times, but caught all four of them for 52 yards last week. The Packers also gave him three rushing attempts. They are looking for ways to get the speedy rookie the ball, and this Swiss cheese Cowboys defense could be just what he needs to introduce himself to the world on a prime time stage.
Despite his RB18 ranking on the week, I think the game script is unfavorable to Williams this week. The Packers are allowing the eighth fewest PPR points to running backs, and I don’t know if Williams will get the volume he needs to produce at an RB2 level this week. Miles Sanders is also becoming increasingly more annoying, going from four attempts in week one to nine attempts last week.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Dak Prescott, Romeo Doubs
Prescott is not startable in this game, as it will probably be a rough day escaping pressure from his former teammate Micah Parsons and facing a Packers defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Choosing who to play in this Green Bay receiver room outside of Kraft is like wide receiver Russian roulette. I had Doubs as a flex consideration last week, which worked out poorly. Golden is the only receiving option other than Kraft I am willing to bet on this week as a flex option.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Monday, September 29th, 7:15 PM EST
Spread MIA -2.5
Over/Under 44.5
Must Starts: Breece Hall, De’Von Achane, Garrett Wilson, Tyreek Hill
Football fans are asking what they did in a former life to be subjected to this matchup on a Monday night? Regardless, there are a few players worth playing here. With two very bad defenses and both teams having capable playmakers, this game avoids the lowest over/under of the week and presents the possibility of some fantasy points.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Justin Fields, Ollie Gordon II, Jaylen Waddle
Fields will be back for this game, and we know what he can do with his legs. The Dolphins have allowed the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks while allowing the top-10 rushing production and three rushing touchdowns to the position. Fields can give you floor production on the ground with passing upside.
Gordon II and Waddle are flex options. The Dolphins are starting to use Gordon II more, and while the Jets are middle of the road in terms of PPR points to running backs, Gordon II has received four red zone carries compared to Achane’s two so far this season. Gordon II has also converted one of those into a goal-line touchdown.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Braelon Allen
While the Dolphins do allow the ninth most PPR points to running backs, they are third in receiving yards allowed to running backs, which is more of where Hall excels.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos
Monday, September 29th, 8:15 PM EST
Spread DEN -7.5
Over/Under 44.5
Must Starts: Bo Nix, J.K. Dobbins, Courtland Sutton, Ja’Marr Chase, Broncos DST, Wil Lutz
Nix will be at home against a reeling Bengals team and looking to rebound from a tough loss to the Chargers. While he hasn’t played well yet this season, I think he gets back on track against a bad Cincinnati defense.
Lutz is ranked as K14 on the week, though they are 7.5-point favorites at home with a 26-point implied total, so I would look for at least two field goal attempts for Lutz on top of his PATs.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Chase Brown, RJ Harvey, Tee Higgins
Brown has been among the most disappointing players so far this season. Following the same trend as BTJ discussed above, Chase is now down to RB22 for the week. Though many fantasy managers (raises hand) likely need him as an RB2 on their team, if you were lucky enough to get guys like Benson, Mason, or Skattebo later in drafts, I would not blame you for playing them over Brown in your RB2 spot.
Harvey’s workload just hasn’t gotten to where the bullish Harvey prognosticators thought it would, so he remains a boom/bust flex option. And unfortunately, Higgins is another huge victim of the Bengals' current offensive woes. He comes in at WR34 on the week, which, given his WR54 ranking over the past two weeks, is completely understandable.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else