NFL week 4 is already around the corner, and some major injuries at the running back position are beginning to take their toll. However, the most relevant players who stand to benefit are all already owned.
Cam Skattebo, Trey Benson, Omarion Hampton, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt just aren’t on your waiver wire, so instead we need to pick through the wreckage behind them and figure out if there is a useful 1B back buried somewhere in those depth charts.
Outside of the running back position, some new pass catchers are seeing their snap shares creep upwards, and we want to monitor their progress to varying degrees.
The Running Back Rundown
Ambiguous Backfield Dart Throws
Jeremy McNichols / Chris Rodriguez
We all know Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the most likely running back to emerge in Washington as the top dog in his backfield. But up until the moment he takes firm control, it’s still an ambiguous backfield ™.
Sharp dynasty owners run toward ambiguity, not from it. Between Rodriguez and McNichols, McNichols has shown more, including as a surprisingly solid pinch hitter last year. However, none of these names at running back are worth large bids. Get them cheap, or not at all.
Interesting if you squint extremely hard
Antonio Gibson
While he’s not injured, Rhamondre Stevenson might have quite literally fumbled away the starting running back job in New England for good. He fumbled not once, but twice against the Steelers, continuing a trend of ball security issues that has carried over from last season. Stevenson simply isn’t good enough to justify continued palying time if he’s fumbling the ball.
This is obviously a bullish signal for TreVeyon Henderson, but your only waiver option in this backfield is Antonio Gibson, who periodically comes out of the woodwork to tease us with flashes of fantasy relevance before fading back into obscurity.
Still, Henderson has (very surprisingly) struggled mightily in pass protection this year, and isn’t physically built like a bellcow back. There is room for Antonio Gibson to have a viabel 1B role in New England, depending on how thoroughly Stevenson gets banished.
Devin Singletary
Under no circumstances is Singletary a priority add, but he’s a player whom head coach Brian Daboll has trusted for a long time, and who occasionally can even play solid football.
Make no mistake, this backfield now belongs to Cam Skattebo, but if there’s an outside chance this ends up being more 50/50 than we expect, Singletary should at least be owned.
Avoid
Hassan Haskins
Haskins may be the ostensible backup to Omarion Hampton, but he’s not good enough to be anything more than a nuisance to Hampton owners with the occasional third-and-long snap.
Emari Demercado
Demercado is, for whatever reason, trusted as a pass-catching back in Arizona, but he’s pigeonholed into specifically that role and is not good enough to earn a bigger one. His key drop, which eventually contributed to a walkoff loss in Week 3, won’t do him any favors.
Waiver Tiers
Probably gone, but double check
Oronde Gadsden
After two straight weeks of being a healthy scratch, Gadsden finally saw the field in Week 3, and he repaid Jim Harbaugh’s trust with a 5-46 line on only a 26% snap share. He’s clearly a part of the game plan when he does see the field. Gadsden moves like a wide receiver out there, so if his snap share climbs, he could quickly become a trump card in TE-premium leagues.
In the offseason, I would have told you something like “Harbaugh and Roman want to run the ball. They won’t give playing time to a tight end whose skillset is min-maxed to the point of being a glorified wide receiver.”
However, we now live in a world where the Chargers are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the entire NFL, and Justin Herbert might easily clear 4,500 passing yards. There is room for a pass-catcher to succeed at tight end in this offense. Owners of both rebuilders and contenders should prioritize Gadsden in TE-premium formats.
Want More Dynasty Content? (SUBSCRIBE HERE)
Woody Marks
The Texans' offense is a hot mess, which may be preventing us from noticing that Woody Marks is carving out a bigger role and becoming a potentially spicy sleeper option. His snap share has steadily climbed from 11% to 27% to 48% to open the season.
Marks isn’t built like a 1A rusher, but at his best he can be a sudden one-cut runner. And his track record catching the ball is beyond reproach, a fact that gives him a major boost over Nick Chubb. There’s a chance Marks becomes the leader in this running back room, particularly with absolutely zero clarity on Joe Mixon's injury situation.
Luke McCaffrey
The slot receiver role in Washington is up for grabs, and Luke McCraffrey’s snap share is on the rise, going from 7% to 23% to 36%. This week, McCaffrey announced his presence with a 43-yard touchdown grab. While this offense will likely be concentrated between Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and Zach Ertz for the rest of the year, McCaffrey might finally be taking steps towards making good on his surprising Day 2 draft capital.
Tyquan Thornton
Many of us fell for the Thornton hype last offseason, but this season it may have stuck. Thornton is easily the Chiefs’ go-to option deep down the field, and he’s produced some solid reception and yardage totals to boot, even earning an eye-opening nine targets against the Giants.
Priority Add
Mitchell Evans
With the news that Ja’Tavion Sanders will miss a few weeks with an ankle injury, there is a wide open opportunity for Mitchell Evans to earn a larger role, and who knows, maybe even run with it.
Evans is a hulking human being, but one who moves surprisingly well at his size. He’s most likely a blocking tight end in the NFL, but he’s a rookie who is in line for a sudden increase in snaps. There is upside variance here, and you can participate in that lottery essentially for free.
Deep League Flyers
Tyler Johnson
The WR2 role on the Jets could not be more wide open. Both Johnson and Arian Smith will be competing for that role, but Johnson has done more with it so far.
On the other hand, the most likely outcome is that this remains the most unproductive WR2 situation in the entire NFL.
Sterling Shepard
With Mike Evans suffering a hamstring injury and Chris Godwin coming back from injury, the Bucs are gonna try to build the whole plane out of slot receivers.
Out of Sterling Shepard, Chris Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka, Shepard is the clear #3 in the pecking order. However, he’s on the field at least two-thirds of the time on one of the more productive passing offenses in the league over the last few seasons. You could do worse than having him around as a 9-1-1 spot starter.