Week 3 is upon us! After two weeks of NFL action, we're starting to get a clearer picture of team trends, usage patterns, and which players are living up to their draft capital.
So far, I have been right in several situations and wrong in several others. Having avoided Omarion Hampton, bought the cheap price tag on Javonte Williams during drafts, and ignored the over-analysis on how Ben Johnson’s and Liam Coen’s departures would sink the Lions’ and Buccaneers’ offenses, respectively, has proven successful so far.
On the flip side, being underweight on Tyler Warren, Puka Nacua, and overweight on Mark Andrews is proving to have been a mistake. Of course, we are only two weeks into a VERY LONG season, so I’m not cashing in on my W’s yet, nor am I going to claim defeat on my L’s (yet).
In our start/sit series this season, we will use FantasyPros weekly consensus rankings for point per reception (PPR) scoring as a reference. I will go game by game, identifying the must-start players, those worthy of a matchup consideration or flex plays and deeper leagues, and the fantasy fades/concerns whose matchup or recent performance should give fantasy managers pause.
I will also be using FFtoday as a reference for points allowed metrics at each position. These should be taken with a grain of salt as reference only this early in the season, though they will become more relevant as we get more games/data points. Spreads and over/unders are from ESPN and are accurate as of the writing of this article.
Recommendations will be based on 12-team leagues, so often they will be reflected within the top-12 quarterback and tight end rankings and the top-24 running back and wide receiver rankings on FantasyPros. Obviously, your roster construction may dictate that players who are listed as matchup considerations or flex plays are actually your best available RB1/2 or WR1/2.
Player ranked outside the top-12 for quarterback, tight end, DST, and kicker, and outside the top-24 for running back and wide receiver, who I am listing as must-starts, will be underlined, and I will spend the most time discussing them. Likewise, if they are within these top rankings and I have them as matchups/flex or fades, I will also underline their names and discuss them.
Without further ado, let's dive into those Week 3 matchups!
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Sunday, September 21st, 1:00 PM EST
Spread ATL -5.5
Over/Under 44.5
Must Starts: Bijan Robinson, Chuba Hubbard, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Tetairoa McMillan, Falcons DST, Parker Romo
McMillan has moved into must-start territory for me with what he has done the last two weeks. The Falcons will also be without their best cornerback, A.J. Terrell, which will help as well.
The Falcons DST is still a great play, as the Panthers have allowed the third most points to opposing DSTs this year.
While Romo is outside the top-12 kicker rankings this week, his performance last week in place of Younghoe Koo and being a heavy favorite put him in a great spot.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Tyler Allgeier, Darnell Mooney, Michael Penix Jr.
Allgeier is getting more work than most Bijan Robinson managers would like, and he could get extended work this week if the spread comes to fruition and the Falcons are trying to kill the clock late.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 21st, 1:00 PM EST
Spread MIN -2.5
Over/Under 41.5
Must Starts: Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Mason, T.J. Hockenson, Vikings DST
Hockenson has had a rough start to the season, amassing only four catches on seven targets through the first two games. Maybe Carson Wentz can help him out a bit against a Bengals defense that has allowed the 12th most PPR points to the tight end position so far.
Mason elevates to a must-start with Aaron Jones Sr. now on IR with a hamstring injury. He should see the majority of carries, and has surprisingly been active in the passing game with three targets in week two.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jake Browning
Browning has proven to be a viable fantasy quarterback when called upon, though the Vikings won’t make it easy on him as they have allowed the eighth fewest points to quarterbacks so far. If your league doesn’t penalize too heavily for interceptions, Browning could get you a spot start if you are missing your starter through volume and touchdown upside.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday, September 21st, 1:00 PM EST
Spread GB -7.5
Over/Under 41.5
Must Starts: Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft (Knee), Packers DST, Brandon McManus
Start your Packer studs. This one could get ugly early, so hopefully we see production in the first half before guys are rested.
Kraft popped up on the injury report after sustaining a knee injury in practice on Wednesday. It is reported he avoided a serious injury, but his week three availability is in doubt as of now.
His absence could elevate others in the Green Bay passing game or cause them to rely more heavily on the run game. Given how this matchup is projected to go, I think they will have their choice on how to control this game.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, Quinshon Judkins, Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, Harold Fannin Jr., David Njoku
Love finds himself at QB11 for this week, though I think this one could get out of hand early, allowing Green Bay to lean on their run game. Judkins had a nice debut in limited action, so if his volume increases, he could be an okay flex play. This Packers defense is for real, though, so it is risky to trust any of the offensive weapons for Cleveland, making them all flex plays at best.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Dontayvion Wicks, Matthew Golden
With Jayden Reed out for the foreseeable future, it presents an opportunity for the work to be more consolidated amongst the remaining receiving options. Doubs is my only flex guy in this passing game, and both Wicks and Golden have a chance to step up and earn a larger workload going forward, though I would not trust them this week.
If Love and Golden could get on the same page, a breakout could be close, as Golden is leading the league in Average Separation Score, per Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 21st, 1:00 PM EST
Spread JAX -1.5
Over/Under 44.5
Must Starts: Nico Collins, Travis Etienne Jr., Brian Thomas Jr. (Wrist), Ka’imi Fairbairn, Cam Little
This Houston offense hasn’t been clicking quite yet, though we have seen flashes. This keeps Collins as a must-start.
Keep an eye on practice reports for Thomas Jr., as it was reported after week two’s game that he is dealing with a wrist injury. The lack of chemistry with Trevor Lawrence thus far, combined with flashbacks to Tyreek Hill’s performance last year with a wrist injury, is a concerning combination, though if BTJ is active, you must start him.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Stroud, Nick Chubb, Bhayshul Tuten, Travis Hunter, Brenton Strange, Texans DST
The rest of the offensive players in this game are flex plays, with Chubb offering a high floor/low ceiling option, both quarterbacks, desperation starts who are ranked as mid-QB2s this week, and Tuten and Hunter, both low floor/high ceiling options.
Despite being 1.5 point underdogs, Houston has generated seven sacks over the past two weeks and has the eighth-highest sack rate in the league. This is likely what has their FantasyPros ranking as DST9 this week.
Lawrence has yet to be sacked this season, though, and Jacksonville has only given up seven points to opposing DSTs all season, which is the ninth-best in the league. Despite their top-10 ranking, Houston isn’t a must-start for me.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Sunday, September 21st, 1:00 PM EST
Spread IND -4.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren (Toe), Tony Pollard, Colts DST, Spencer Shrader
Danny Dimes (or Indiana Jones, if you prefer), welcome to the party. With several quarterbacks out this week, despite being QB13 on FantasyPros, I think Jones has earned must-start consideration with how he has been playing and how this offense is rolling.
Shrader is K14 on FantasyPros this week, though with the Colts being favorites in this game, having made nine field goals in the last two weeks, and the Titans allowing the 12th most points to kickers this year, Shrader is a must-start for me.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Michael Pittman Jr., Calvin Ridley
The two primary wide receivers in this matchup are flex plays, though Pittman Jr. could easily return WR2 or better numbers with the Titans giving up the third most PPR points to wide receivers.
The Colts are middle of the pack against wide receivers, allowing the 17th most PPR points, though my main concern at this point for Ridley is the lack of connection with Cam Ward and rookie Elic Ayomanor earning similar targets and being more productive.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders
Sunday, September 21st, 1:00 PM EST
Spread WSH -2.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, Deebo Samuel Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Zach Ertz
I will not rest until Meyers earns the respect he deserves. He is WR18 for the year in PPR scoring, earning 22 targets over the first two games, yet is still being ranked outside the top-24 among wide receivers this week. The Raiders should be playing from behind if the spread holds, giving Meyers another opportunity for double-digit targets.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Terry McLaurin, Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt
McLaurin has been disappointing so far. We may have to wait another week for him to do what we have expected, though, with Jayden Daniels ruled out this week. I would still flex him since he is talented and has upside.
“Bill’s” breakout could be coming, if the hype materializes. Nobody knows how this backfield will shake out; he and Jeremy McNichols had an identical 22.1% snap share last week, according to Player Profiler, and the Commanders trust McNichols more in pass protection and passing downs.
I would expect Chris Rodriguez Jr. to get some run along with Croskey-Meritt, and I would expect McNichols to dominate third down and hurry-up situations. Washington could rely on the run game this week, though, if Daniels is out. This could give Bill the rushing floor needed to return a flex-level performance.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, September 21st, 1:00 PM EST
Spread PHI -3.5
Over/Under 44.5
Must Starts: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, Jake Elliot
I am running it back with all the usual suspects this week, and hoping that Philadelphia decides to pass it more than 19 times.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: DeVonta Smith, Eagles DST
Despite being ranked as the DST12 for the week, I don’t have the Eagles as a must-start. The Rams are only allowing four points per game to opposing DSTs, which is what the Eagles have averaged over their last two games against Dallas and Kansas City.
They haven’t quite produced as we had expected, so there are better streaming options this week.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, September 21st, 1:00 PM EST
Spread TB -6.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Baker Mayfield, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka (Hip/Groin), Buccaneers DST, Chase McLaughlin
There shouldn’t be many surprises on this list. Evans has been mediocre so far, but is still earning a strong 28.80% target share on the year, 37.50% red zone target share, is fifth in first read target share at 44.70%, and fifth in air yards at 268 (all per Player Profiler).
Egbuka is questionable heading into week three, so if he is out, Evans’s ceiling increases as well. Keep an eye on this one.
Justin Fields has already been ruled out for this week with a concussion, meaning veteran Tyrod Taylor will lead the team into Tampa Bay. This makes his primary weapons very questionable must-starts, though they will likely have to rely on both Hall and Wilson if they hope to compete.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Rachaad White
White got a bit more play last week, upping his snap share from 22.80% in week one to 30% in week two, earning 10 carries versus just two in week one (converting one into a goal-line touchdown), and two targets compared to just one in week one.
While it could be a one-week thing, this could also be an attempt to balance the work between him and Irving to keep Irving fresh.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Sunday, September 21st, 1:00 PM EST
Spread PIT -1.5
Over/Under 44.5
Must Starts: Drake Maye, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Chris Boswell
The moderate over/under for this game and Pittsburgh being a slight favorite is a recipe for another slow-paced ball control game. The Steelers rank 25th in offensive plays per game at 56.5, and the Patriots are only slightly better at 61.5.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been struggling this year, allowing the fifth-most points to quarterbacks, making Maye a strong start here. Warren should benefit from the close spread with opportunities on the ground, and Metcalf is a nice option with the Patriots allowing the fifth most PPR points to wide receivers.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, Steelers DST
All of the New England weapons are flex plays. Henderson has the speed and upside to explode for a big play at any time, but Stevenson has been the more productive back through two weeks. And choose your pass catcher between Diggs, Boutte, and Henry, all matchup/flex options.
The Patriots do allow the fourth most points to opposing DSTs, so despite the Steelers DST having a rough start to the season, there is an opportunity for a bounce back here.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, September 21st, 4:05 PM EST
Spread LAC -2.5
Over/Under 45.5
Must Starts: Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, Ladd McConkey, J.K. Dobbins, Courtland Sutton, Cameron Dicker
As a University of Oregon alum and super fan, I will be glued to this game. Even if you aren’t an Oregon fan, Herbert versus Nix will be a fun battle to watch. We will see if Sutton gets more involved this week, after taking a back seat to Troy Franklin last week.
Dobbins is ranked outside of the top-25 running backs this week, but I consider him a must-start. They trust him more than their other backfield options, so I have him in my lineups until something changes.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Omarion Hampton, RJ Harvey, Najee Harris, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Troy Franklin, Broncos DST, Chargers DST
Lots of flex options here. Last week, I told you that Harris wasn’t startable, but he would be a thorn in Hampton’s side and prove why Hampton was over-drafted in fantasy. I think that accurately reflects what happened, and rankers have cooled a bit, moving Hampton to RB25 on the week.
Harris finds himself at RB44 on the week, and I would not be surprised if both were low-floor flex options if you were desperate, with both having touchdown upside.
We will see if Franklin can continue to build his NFL chemistry with Nix, a connection that was very strong in their final year together at Oregon. Perhaps the added threat of Franklin will help open things up for Sutton as well.
With this game having the fourth-highest over/under of the week and a tight 2.5 point spread, both DSTs' value will be turnover dependent, and neither is a must-start option for me given the streamers available this week.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, September 21st, 4:05 PM EST
Spread SEA -7.5
Over/Under 41.5
Must Starts: Kenneth Walker III, Alvin Kamara, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Juwan Johnson, Seahawks DST
Walker III showed us all why he was hyped up in the offseason, putting him back as a must-start. Johnson now finds himself as TE7 this week on FantasyPros, as he has become one of Spencer Rattler’s preferred targets over the past two weeks.
While the Saints are allowing the sixth fewest points to opposing DSTs, the Seahawks defense has been applying pressure at a high rate and has four sacks and four interceptions over their first two games. Expect more of the same against this young quarterback.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Chris Olave, Zach Charbonnet, Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed
Rattler’s other pass-catching options are flex plays, though Olave has earned a very strong 30.70% target share. He is third in the league in targets, 10th in air yards, and eighth in unrealized air yards (all per Player Profiler), so if he can become more efficient with his opportunities, the fantasy points should follow.
Kupp sneaks in as a matchup-based flex play. While the Saints allow the 10th fewest PPR points to wide receivers, Kupp is projected to face Player Profiler’s 87th-ranked cornerback Alontae Taylor.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, September 21st, 4:25 PM EST
Spread SF -2.5
Over/Under 45.5
Must Starts: Kyler Murray, Christian McCaffrey, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., 49ers DST
One thing of note is that the spread on this game has shifted since the beginning of the week, from Arizona -1.5 to San Francisco -2.5.
With the 49ers offensive weapons depleted, McCaffrey is my only offensive must-start for them.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings (Shoulder/Ankle), James Conner, Trey Benson, Cardinals DST, 49ers DST
A few players of note here. Pearsall and Jennings are flex-worthy for me, as I think the volume will continue to go CMC’s way. Mac Jones proved last week that he can be serviceable, if not pretty good, in Brock Purdy’s absence.
Despite his FantasyPros ranking of RB18 this week, I do not think Conner is a must-start. His snap share decreased from 65.2% to 55.6% from weeks one to two. His targets decreased from four to one. He saved both of his weeks with a touchdown.
Meanwhile, Benson increased his snap share from 33.3% to 44.4% over two weeks. His route participation was up to 61.5% in week two (26.5% week one), and he received six targets last week, compared to only one target in week one, and converted that into four receptions for 44 yards.
If this trend continues, we could see Benson getting close to a 50/50 split with Conner, making both flex options at best, and touchdown dependent to make you truly happy you had them in your lineup.
Even with the line moving on this game more in favor of San Francisco, I do not consider them a must-start despite their FantasyPros ranking of DST10. Arizona is right in the middle in terms of fantasy points allowed to DSTs. The 49ers have four sacks on the season and rank 17th in sack rate.
Their season fantasy point total is bolstered by three fumble recoveries, which are fluky. Murray has been sacked six times this season, though, which could set a floor for the 49ers' defense. While not a must-start for me, they are probably still a decent option.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 21st, 4:25 PM EST
Spread DAL -1.5
Over/Under 49.5
Must Starts: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams, Rome Odunze, Jake Ferguson, D’Andre Swift (Quad), George Pickens, Brandon Aubrey
Another game where the spread has shifted. The Cowboys opened the week as 1.5-point favorites, but as of Wednesday, it shifted to -1.5 in favor of the Bears. Less than 24 hours later, the spread is back in favor of the Cowboys.
Both Swift and Pickens are ranked outside the top 24 at their positions this week, but neither of these defenses is very good. The Cowboys have allowed the 12th most PPR points to the running back position, and the Bears have allowed the sixth most PPR points to wide receivers. With this game having the second-highest over/under of the week, I expect there to be lots of opportunities for both sides.
Odunze has taken control of the Bears' wide receiver room, and I don’t think there is any turning back.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: DJ Moore
See note above about Odunze. Moore is no more than a low-floor/high-ceiling flex play. I would not be surprised to see Moore on another team by season's end.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Giants
Sunday, September 21st, 8:20 PM EST
Spread KC -6.5
Over/Under 45.5
Must Starts: Patrick Mahomes II, Malik Nabers, Travis Kelce, Chiefs DST, Harrison Butker
Despite the hate, Kelce is the only Chiefs pass catcher I trust right now, and with the tight end landscape being what it is, he is a must-start option. Nabers is a freak. Enough said.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Isiah Pacheco, Cam Skattebo, Tyrone Tracy (Calf) Jr., Hollywood Brown, Wan’Dale Robinson, Xavier Worthy (Shoulder)
Lots to watch and consider here. Pacheco might regain control of this running back room, and this week could be when it happens. The Giants are allowing the most PPR points to opposing running backs. If there was any chance for a Pacheco get-right game, this is it.
I mentioned last week in my start/sit article that I did not think that Skattebo would take over this backfield from Tracy just yet. Well, I might have been wrong. Skattebo out-snapped Tracy (52.2% to 40.3%), had one more route than Tracy (19 to 18), two more targets (five to three), and six more carries (11 to five). Skattebo also had a goal-line touchdown.
Tracy’s route participation also dropped from 76.9% in week one to 40.9% in week two. The Skattebo takeover is upon us. Until I see another week of it, I won’t kick Tracy to the curb yet, so I will put both in flex territory.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
Monday, September 22nd, 8:15 PM EST
Spread BAL -4.5
Over/Under 53.5
Must Starts: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Zay Flowers, Sam LaPorta, Tyler Loop
LaPorta had a decent week one, then faded off last week. I expect a bounce back this week, with the Ravens allowing the most points PPR points to tight ends this season.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Jameson Williams
Goff is ranked just outside of the top-12 this week. We have seen one outdoor/road Goff game (not good) and one home/dome Goff game (good). This week we get outdoor/road Goff again. Though the Ravens have been a pass funnel this year, allowing the fourth most points to quarterbacks, I don't think I want to trust outdoor/road Goff this week if I can avoid it
Much like their propensity to allow points to tight ends, the Ravens are also allowing the fifth-most PPR points to running backs and the 14th-most to wide receivers. Marlon Humphrey left Sunday’s game with a groin injury, though with this being a Monday game, we won’t get our first practice reports until Thursday.
If Humphrey is out, and if Jaire Alexander remains inactive, that could shift some things around in the Baltimore secondary. Williams has game-breaking ability, as we saw last week, so the big play is always a possibility.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Mark Andrews
Not only has Andrews gotten off to another slow start (again), but the Lions are only allowing 8.7 PPR points to the tight end position, which is ninth best in the league. That includes games against Green Bay (Tucker Kraft) and Chicago (Cole Kmet, Colston Loveland). I do expect better days for Andrews, but I am keeping him on my bench and looking elsewhere this week.