Week one of the NFL season always brings overreactions at huge performances and increasing panic at slow starts.
Smart managers are using this panic and overreaction to benefit their team through trades, and this article will help you identify how to attack this.
Let’s break down two buy-low targets along with two sell-high targets as we finish week one of the 2025 fantasy football season, and use those targets to improve your teams.
Buy Low
Josh Downs
Indianapolis Colts - WR
In week one, the Colts dominated the Dolphins, securing a 33-8 victory, but receiver Josh Downs hauled in only two of his three targets for 12 yards.
This comes as a surprise to most fantasy owners, as Downs was hyped throughout the offseason as a low-end WR2 option.
Downs’ modest fantasy output looks disappointing, but the Colts’ offense had many moving parts in week one, with Tyler Warren leading the team in targets while Michael Pittman Jr still holds the deep threat role.
With starting quarterback Daniel Jones delivering an impressive performance, throwing 29 passes and completing 75.9% of his throws, the Colts appear to have an elite passing offense, and Downs holds the slot role firmly in Indianapolis.
Downs profiles as a low-end WR2 and high-end WR3, and as the Colts’ offense settles down, the targets in the short and intermediate should gravitate towards Downs, especially as Warren’s target share normalizes.
With his elite route-running ability and excellent hands, Downs is a dependable PPR asset and with improved quarterback play from Jones, Downs can see an elite season.
If your leaguemates are worried about Downs’ quiet opener, make sure to capitalize on their panic and grab a reliable flex option at much lower than his true cost.
Tony Pollard
Tennessee Titans - RB
During the Titans' loss to the Denver Broncos in week one, Tony Pollard rushed 18 times for 60 yards, while also having one reception for 29 yards, finishing week one with a middling 9.9 PPR points.
With fellow running back Tyjae Spears on IR until at least week 4, Pollard will command an elite rushing share that, off of volume alone, will propel Pollard to being a startable player each week.
Additionally, Pollard's average performance in week one came against one of the league's best defenses, while Pollard still managed to produce the longest play for Tennessee, boding well for his future performances against lesser defenses.
With Pollard displaying his ability to be used in pass-catching situations, he will be a consistent force in the passing game, serving as the three-down back until Spears is fully healed.
If your leaguemates are panicking at Pollard's average week one performance, swoop and take advantage of a bell-cow running back that will provide RB2 numbers for your fantasy team.
Sell High
Quentin Johnston
Los Angeles Chargers - WR
Quentin Johnston exploded in the season opener of the 2025 NFL Season with 5 receptions, 78 yards, and 2 touchdowns for a total of 24.9 PPR points, making him the WR3 overall in week one.
While this performance was elite, it was heavily touchdown-dependent, with Johnston catching a touchdown on 40% of his receptions in week one.
This level of touchdowns is unsustainable and is ripe for regression on a week-to-week basis, especially with head coach Jim Harbaugh looking to establish the run game with rookie Omarion Hampton.
Additionally, Johnston has lots of competition for targets with Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and rookie Tre Harris all in position to cut inot Johstons’s potential target share.
Paired with Johnston’s past struggles involving efficiency and drop issues, Johnston is looking to be at his peak value for the 2025 season and is an elite sell-high target.
When moving off of Johnston, try to package him with another player on your roster for a consistent WR2 or gain depth at a position of need if necessary.
Find a manager looking to swing for the fences and sell them Johnston’s high upside to capitalize on this upswing of value.
Dylan Sampson
Cleveland Browns - RB
Dylan Sampson burst into his first career game with a ridiculous stat line: 12 rushes for 29 yards paired with 8 catches for 64 yards, finishing his first NFL start with 17.3 PPR points.
While this performance may seem like the making of a new rookie superstar, several concerns arise from it.
First, the Browns’ running back room is extremely crowded, with Jerome Ford commanding touches and Quinshon Judkins coming back to the team as soon as next week, making Sampson’s rushing share smaller as Judkins takes the early down rushes.
Secondly, Sampson’s 17.8% target share is abnormally high and will be difficult to replicate in future weeks, making his points up for regression as the targets get more evenly spread throughout the team.
Lastly, Sampson's lack of explosiveness and big-play ability displayed in week one can significantly hinder his future success, forcing Sampson to rely on short-yardage receptions and lack the necessary redzone production for elite running backs.
After this strong performance from Sampson, now is the time to move off of him before Judkins comes back and solidifies his role in the offense.
Managers desperate for running backs may offer more than consensus value for Sampson, chasing the upside that was on display in week one.
Try to package Sampson to tier up to more consistent RB2 play or flip him for a consistent FLEX player that can be a starter immediately.
Final Thoughts
With week one behind us, make use of the rapidly shifting market to solidify the success of your 2025 fantasy football roster.
Sell these players coming off of unsustainable week one performances who have reached the peak of their value, for more solidified players to benefit your future roster.
Make sure to buy the players who had average week one performances but still have high potential to produce throughout the rest of the 2025 season.
Make sure to check back next week for another week of buy low and sell high targets, and good luck with your fantasy teams!