Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is in the books, and for engaged owners it’s time to get ahead of the market and look for value. In this article, I go through some slightly more subtle buys, and give advice on how to handle some of the most disappointing fallers. 

 

 

While I could wax poetic about how encouraging Keon Coleman and Tyler Warren looked in week 1, you don’t need me to tell you that. You also don’t need me to tell you those guys are probably unacquirable at a fair value right now. 

 

Instead, we’re going to look for takeaways that have not quite yet shown up in the box score, and that just maybe flew under the radar.

 

Stock Up

 

Dak Prescott

 

While Prescott’s numbers didn’t blow anybody away, he certainly passed the eye test. Prescott was moving around well in the pocket, showed much improved chemistry with CeeDee Lamb, and made plays throughout the game. 

 

The point about Lamb is crucial, as Prescott's league-winning run in 2023 was largely fueled by an unreal connection with his star receiver, one that dissipated in 2024 following Lamb's contract-related holdout. Assuming Lamb actually catches the football going forward, these two are going to make beautiful music the rest of the year. 

 

Pocket quarterbacks are subject to the whims of touchdowns variance, so Prescott's scoring was muted this week. But the process was absolutely there, and the touchdowns will follow. 

 

Verdict: Contenders could offer a mid-to-late first rounder with a sweetener, depending on how severe the need is.

 

 

Cedric Tillman

 

Cedric Tillman had a solid game, but moving beyond the box score, there were several even more positive indicators surrounding his week 1 performance. Tillman picked up right where he left off last year, and showed that his strong stretch in 2024 was not purely the result of Jameis Winston playing YOLO-ball.

 

Tillman has eclipsed at least 8 targets in each of his last five games, he’s running a target share equal to Jerry Jeudy’s over that span, and he is being rated favorably in charting data, including both Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception and Fantasy Points’ route win rate and separation score metrics. 

 

Tillman checks essentially every box as a useful WR2 with potentially upside for more (though I don’t quite see it going that far). Essentially any roster type should be interested in acquiring him.

 

Verdict: Offer a mid second+, or target him if you’re flipping veterans

 

Elic Ayomanor

 

While most engaged owners are aware that Elic Ayomanor put up an inefficient 7 target performance, the peripherals are really positive. Ayomanor ran the second most routes on the Titans, put up a 28% target share, and had a whopping 36.8% first read target rate. 

 

These indicators all show the Titans are fully planning on Ayomanor being a large part of the offense, and not solely a run-blocking and clear-out route type of player. Previously, I’ve worried extensively that Ayomanor would profile as a classic sacrificial X receiver. There’s hope his role ends up being much more productive for fantasy. 

 

It’s worth checking in and seeing if he’s still cheap. Most likely your league mate won’t give him up straight up for a third rounder, but you can keep him in mind as parts of packages if you ever discuss other deals with that owner. 

 

Verdict: Check in. Can try offering a third rounder. Otherwise keep him in mind in future trade discussions over more notable players. 

 

 

Jaylin Noel

 

Originally being brought into the Texans organization behind Christian Kirk in the slot, the expectation was that 2025 would be a developmental year for Noel. However, Kirk’s hamstring injury opens the door for Noel to force his way onto the field.

 

The Texans' 11-personnel usage was 81% in week 1, a massive increase from 63% last year. This implies Noel can see the field consistently even if pigeonholed into a slot-only role. However, he and Jayden Higgins have significant inside-outside versatility, which opens the door for Noel to prove himself on the outside too.

 

Rather than being buried on the depth chart, Jaylin Noel is now officially in an ambiguous position group™, and will have every chance to prove that for all we know, he’s better than Jayden Higgins and deserves to be C.J. Stroud’s WR2. 

 

Verdict: Consider re-rolling an expendable young player into Noel

 

Stock Down

 

Worth noting, it’s too early for me to recommend outright selling anybody in this list.

 

Josh Downs

 

As much as Downs’ per-route data intrigues us, he simply isn’t getting enough snaps to be a high-value dynasty asset. In week 1, he only had a 52% route participation rate, compared to rates above 80% for Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. 

 

This isn’t a question of whether Downs is better than Pierce, but rather that the Colts see him as a slot-only player. While slot receivers can often be exciting dynasty assets, this typically occurs in situations where their slot routes are supplemented by enough snaps outside to receive a full workload. Or because they're The Guy in an explosive offense. 

 

Week 1 is too soon to reactionarily move off of essentially any player, so I won’t go as far as to recommend a trade, but the more time passes the more I think Josh Downs is a good candidate to package up into a more full-time player. 

 

For now, one can hope Downs’ route participation will go up in less run-heavy game scripts going forward. 

 

Verdict: Hold. Could consider packaging up from him.

 

Kenneth Walker III

 

Man, was the Kenneth Walker usage disappointing in week 1. Previously, there was a clear hierarchy in this backfield, with Walker leading Zach Charbonnet for playing time. Now, this backfield has turned into a nightmare for fantasy owners. 

 

As they say, availability is the best ability. Going into week 1, there were reports that Charbonnet was going to be more involved than in previous years due to how much time Walker missed during the offseason. 

 

That report turned out to be extremely accurate, as Charbonnet was in a total timeshare with Walker, and to be frank he even outplayed Walker. 

 

 

If you’re a Kenneth Walker owner, your only option is to hope that the Seahawks see Walker as their long-term starter, and that this week 1 usage was simply intended to ease Walker back into the swing of things because of him missing time in the offseason. 

 

Otherwise, you could try offering Walker to the Charbonnet owner in your league and see if he values consolidating that backfield. My preferred option is to hope this is a Mark Andrews - Isaiah Likely style of false alarm as the starter gets eased in. 

 

Verdict: Be very worried, but all you can really do is wait and hope Walker asserts himself as the 1A.