Football season is upon us at long last, and dynasty owner finally have real information to react to when informing their roster moves. Most dynasty leagues tend to be very deep, which means waivers don’t exactly contain a murderers’ row of great assets.
However, winning along the margins can slowly add up to big edges for engaged owners, and increasing your “luck surface area” just by being on top of your waivers can occasionally yield a big hit.
From my perspective, the key to waivers in deep dynasty leagues is to ignore your priors and to target players for whom you will imminently gain a lot more information in the very near future. This generally means players who are getting their shot for the first time, no matter how lowly their draft capital. It could also mean gross veterans in brand new situations, even if we’re skeptical about them.
Today, I’ll take you through which players to target, admittedly in a week low on exciting, flashy talent.
Probably Gone, But Check Your Waivers
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown - Kansas City Chiefs
With Rashee Rice set to miss five more games, and Xavier Worthy reportedly dislocating his shoulder, Marquise Brown steps in as the main target eaner in the Chiefs' offense. In week 1, this turned into a whopping 16 targets, resulting in 10 receptions for 99 yards. Brown will be a high end WR2 with potentially the volume of a WR1 for the early part of the season.
Rebuilders could make an attempt for him if they’re hoping to have a trade chip in the short term, but I tend not to acquire players just to flip them. Owners usually have to contend with low liquidity when trying to flip players in fantasy leagues.
Shallower playoff hopefuls should be all over Brown, and he instantly becomes the highest priority waiver target for them, if available anywhere.
Juwan Johnson - New Orleans Saints
Juwan Johnson put up an impressive 8-76 receiving line with a whopping 11 targets. At tight end, this simply must grab our attention. Fresh off a contract extension, and with an offense that figures to be way more pass-heavy than in years past, he’s a priority add for all roster types if available. Especially in TE premium formats.
Waiver Targets
Jalen Royals - Kansas City Chiefs
Royals missed week 1 with a knee injury, but it seems he’ll be back in action fairly soon. Whenever he does come back, he’ll have a chance to carve out a role for himself in the now-depleted Kansas City receiver room.
While the chances of Royals being a major contributed to your dynasty team for then entire rest of the season are low, the hope is that he auditions to have a locked in role in future years when the older veterans on short-term deals all leave. In fact, Royals could even control his own destiny by proving they’re expendable.
All roster types should look to acquire Royals, but deeper contenders can hold off if they can't find the room.
Isaac TeSlaa - Detroit Lions
If the preseason drumbeat wasn’t enough, it’s now definitely time to add TeSlaa. While he split time with Khalif Raymond, TeSlaa’s one catch was an outstanding touchdown reception, which was quickly followed by reports that he earned more playing time.
TeSlaa’s future as a fantasy scorer is admittedly murky. Amon-Ra St. Brown isn’t going anywhere, and Jameson Williams just signed a contract extension. However, TeSlaa is essentially free right now, and it’s becoming clearer and clearer that he’s more talented than his hypothetical availability would indicate.
Longer-term rebuilders should prioritize TeSlaa, but any roster type with room could stand to stash him while we observe exactly how big a role he carves out.
Kayshon Boutte - New England Patriots
Boutte was very quietly the Patriots only viable downfield receiver with Drake Maye last year. That continued in Week 1 with 8 targets resulting in 6 receptions for 103 yards.
At only 23, and with plenty of hype prior to his final year of college football, maybe there is some latent talent here that he hasn’t had a chance to show due to his lack of opportunity until the back half of last year.
Juju Smith-Schuster - Kansas City Chiefs
Rebuilders should completely ignore Juju, but any shallower teams that are aiming to contend could do worse than throw him into their last flex spots for some good old fashioned PPR scammery while the receiver room is depleted.
On balance, Royals is more interesting to me because he might stake his case for a larger role long-term.
Calvin Austin III - Pittsburgh Steelers
Calvin Austin III was the second leading receiver in a surprisingly explosive showing by the Steelers in week 1. With the WR2 job in Pittsburgh wide open, it’s worth adding Austin to see if he runs away with the job.
Deeper Leagues
Michael Mayer - Las Vegas Raiders
While it sounds like Brock Bowers will be fine, Michael Mayer was more involved than in previous years and could step into a full time role if Brock Bowers does miss any time.
Kenneth Gainwell - Pittsburgh Steelers
At this point we’re pretty sure that Kenneth Gainwell isn’t some sort of elite talent, but this wouldn’t be the first time Arthur Smith has revived the fantasy careers of his pet projects. In Atlanta this included Jonnu Smith and Cordarelle Patterson.
Gainwell got 11 opportunities in Week 1, and might have contingent value depending on the health of his backfield mates. In deep dynasty leagues, running backs who are actually involved in their offense simply need to be rostered. Just don’t blow your budget on him and don’t start him unless a semblance of efficiency follows.
Luke Farrell / Jake Tonges - San Francisco 49ers
With the news that George Kittle will miss a few weeks of action, somebody in this Niners TE room is going to get a sudden influx of playing time. Will they do anything with it? Unlikely. But the point is there is variance here where there used to be none.
In past seasons, George Kittle’s “handcuff” has been somewhat useful. Maybe Farrell or Tonges is better than we realized and can be a spot starter early in the season.