Well, folks, we made it! Week one of the 2025 NFL season is finally here. With our fantasy drafts complete, it’s now time to get our lineups in. Early in the season, it tends to be a little more straightforward. We likely err on the side of starting our studs.
The guys we invested higher draft capital in are probably seeing our starting lineups, unless hampered by injury or they prove unworthy later in the season. In our start/sit series this season, we will use FantasyPros weekly consensus rankings for point per reception (PPR) scoring.
I will go game by game, identifying the must-start players, those worthy of a matchup consideration or flex plays, and the fantasy fades/concerns whose matchup or recent performance should give fantasy managers pause.
Recommendations will be based on 12-team leagues, so often they will be reflected within the top-12 quarterback and tight end rankings and the top-24 running back and wide receiver rankings on FantasyPros. Obviously, your roster construction may dictate that players who are listed as matchup considerations or flex plays are actually your best available RB1/2 or WR1/2.
Point spreads and over/unders are from ESPN and are accurate at the time of my writing this article and are subject to change. Without further ado, let’s dive into those week one matchups!
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Thursday, September 4th, 8:20 PM EST
Spread PHI -8.5
Over/Under 47.5
Must Starts: Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Jake Ferguson, Brandon Aubrey
Not much to say on these players. Ferguson is ranked as a borderline TE1 this week, though with Dallas being a 8.5-point underdog, they are likely to find themselves in negative game scripts and airing it out more than average.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Dak Prescott, DeVonta Smith, George Pickens, Javonte Williams, Dallas Goedert, Jake Elliot, Eagles DST
Prescott is currently the QB11 in drafts, though consensus rankings this week have him as QB15. If not for the highly rated Eagles' defense, he would likely be in must-start territory.
Smith is a fringe WR2/3 in the rankings this week, though many rosters may not have a choice but to start him as one of their top wide receivers or a strong flex play. Same with Pickens; the hype on him grew towards the end of the draft season, where many were valuing him as a low-end WR2. Pickens will also likely match up against Kelee Ringo, Player Profiler’s 48th ranked cornerback.
Williams could be a flex play based on your roster, and may have some floor as a pass catcher. Goedert may be your best tight end option and is just outside the TE1 rankings this week, so you could do worse. Elliot finds himself as a mid-range starting kicker with the Eagles as a touchdown favorite.
While this game has all the makings of a shootout with an over/under of 47.5, Dallas has an implied team total of 19.50 points, which is the fourth lowest among all underdogs. The Eagles DST could still return some profit this week with some turnovers or sacks.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Cowboys DST
No one drafted the Cowboys DST to start anyway, but if you are thinking about it, don’t.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
Friday, September 5th, 8:00 PM EST
Spread KC -3.5
Over/Under 46.5
Must Starts: Patrick Mahomes, Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Cameron Dicker, Harrison Butker
Hampton is being ranked as a mid RB2 this week, though this selection crosses over to my “concern” list, as Najee Harris is slated to play. That said, you are probably banking on starting him based on where you drafted him, so time to ante up.
With Rashee Rice serving his six-game suspension starting this week, Worthy and Kelce likely see a significant target share. With a strong over/under of 46.5 and a spread of just over a field goal, both kickers should see your lineup in a nice indoor environment.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Isiah Pacheco, Justin Herbert
After the initial group of must-starts, there is a pretty decent drop-off in who fantasy managers should consider next. That list starts and ends with Pacheco, in my opinion. He is being ranked as a borderline RB2, which is about where he was drafted. He is a strong RB2 play, or if you drafted him as your team’s RB3, he would make a good flex option.
Herbert has a tough matchup, though playing at home gives him a little bit of an advantage. If you are streaming your quarterbacks, as QB17 on the week, he isn’t the best option, but I like him better than some others that are ranked ahead of him.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Hollywood Brown, Keenan Allen, Tre’ Harris, Chiefs DST, Chargers DST
I would pretty much avoid any other option in this game if I could. Until Brown and Harris have better-defined roles, they stay on my bench. Allen could be a flier in very deep leagues, but you should have better options in week one. Both teams have implied totals over 21.5 points, so there are likely better DST plays available this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, September 7th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread TB -2.5
Over/Under 47.5
Must Starts: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Mike Evans, Chase McLaughlin
With a decent amount of firepower on both sides of this matchup, and neither team having a highly ranked defense, there are some nice must-start options. Mayfield offers a strong starting option at quarterback, with Irving and Evans sure to benefit if Mayfield delivers. McLaughlin should be a reliable option given Tampa Bay is favored with an implied point total of 25.
Robinson and London offer a ton of punch as well, with weekly rankings of third and seventh at their respective positions. I would expect very concentrated usage involving these two.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Emeka Egbuka, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney (Shoulder)
Given where fantasy managers drafted Egbuka, they may not be forced to get him into their lineups, but they may want to. He is projected to go up against Player Profiler’s 49th-ranked cornerback Mike Hughes and stands to benefit from the absence of Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan.
For the fourth season in a row, this could be Pitts’s year. He is a high-upside play at tight end, especially if Mooney isn’t able to go with his shoulder injury. If Mooney can go, he offers a high-risk flex option and somewhat limits Pitts’s upside.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Michael Penix Jr., Rachaad White, Cade Otton, Both DSTs
Penix Jr. should not have been drafted as a starting quarterback and should ride the bench until further notice. White should only be a desperation start, but I hope you aren’t that desperate in week one. Otton may play, but has just resumed practicing this week and offers a low-ceiling option at tight end. Lastly, with a high over/under and both teams with implied point totals over 22.5, I am fading both DSTs.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday, September 7th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread CIN -5.5
Over/Under 47.5
Must Starts: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Evan McPherson
The four Bengals options don’t need much explanation, with only Higgins being ranked outside the top-12 starting tier at WR14.
Some may question listing Jeudy here, though with Joe Flacco starting, the Browns being 5.5-point underdogs, and the lack of a big threat in the running game, Jeudy could earn a ton of targets and is projected to line up against Player Profiler’s 80th-ranked cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt. I think his WR23 ranking on FantasyPros is conservative. Njoku is a top-7 ranked tight end and should definitely see your lineup.
McPherson is a strong kicker option this week with the Bengals having the second-highest implied point total of the week of 26.5 as a 5.5-point favorite.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jerome Ford, Cedric Tillman, Bengals DST
With Ford projected to be the lead back for the Browns and his decent background as a pass catcher, his FantasyPros ranking of RB33 suggests he could be a flex play, or slide into an RB2 spot if you went with an extreme Zero-RB build.
Tillman showed some promise last year before his concussion, with a nice stretch of games between weeks seven and nine where he outproduced Jeudy. If he can get back on track, he could be a reliable third target for Flacco and be an upside flex play.
The Bengals DST sneaks in here, as they finally re-signed Trey Hendrickson, which should give them some help in the pass rush against an immobile Flacco. I know the Bengals defense is not great, and though the Browns' implied point total is 21, I could see the Bengals getting a few sacks and maybe a turnover to give you a floor play in your DST spot.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Joe Flacco, Dylan Sampson, Browns DST
No reason you should have to start any of these guys in week one. The Browns DST projects to be decent overall this season, but against this Bengals passing attack, they are an easy fade this week.
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 7th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread IND -1.5
Over/Under 46.5
Must Starts: De’Von Achane, Jonathan Taylor, Tyreek Hill
Even with a decent over/under, there aren’t many must-start guys in this game. I hesitate to even put Hill on the list, though, with a third-round draft cost, I don’t see how you can sit him if he is active week one.
Achane is trending towards playing after nursing a calf injury for the last several weeks, so if he is active, you have to play him. Taylor is going to be the Colts' primary weapon on offense and will look to build upon the league-winning stretch he ended the season with last year.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Jaylen Waddle, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Tyler Warren
A few more matchup-based and flex plays here. Waddle is FantasyPros WR26 this week, and he goes up against Player Profiler’s 44th-ranked cornerback Jaylon Jones. Pittman and Downs are WR40 and WR43, respectively. Pittman has a much more favorable cornerback matchup with 70th-ranked Rasul Dogulas, while Downs is projected to face 37th-ranked Jason Marshall Jr. Downs is looking to build off a strong sophomore campaign, and he could see similar usage as Wan’Dale Robinson did last year.
With Warren coming in with the TE11 ranking, most managers who drafted him are probably starting him. Though if you deploy the Yin & Yang Tight End strategy suggested by Andrew Cooper, you could have just as easily drafted a high-floor option along with Warren to allow a week to see what his role will be.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Daniel Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Ollie Gordon II, Both DSTs, Both Kickers
Fade both quarterbacks in this matchup if at all possible. Keep an eye on Gordon II’s usage this week, as he may prove valuable later, but no need to take a chance on him this week. Neither DST is startable in this matchup, with both teams having implied point totals over 23 and a spread of only 1.5, this could be a shootout without much resistance.
Neither kicker should be in consideration this week.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Sunday, September 7th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread NE -2.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers
With the second-lowest over/under this week, there aren’t many must-start options. Both Jeanty and Bowers had top two or three round draft capital, so you are starting your studs.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs, Jakobi Meyers, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, Patriots DST
Even though Maye is ranked as QB10 this week, he was drafted as the QB16 based on ADP, so he likely isn’t a must-start option for all fantasy managers. Those who drafted Maye could have taken another quarterback they feel better about week one until Maye can show he is worth the start, but his upside is definitely worth the risk.
He has several teammates who are also strong matchups and flex considerations in Diggs, Henderson, Stevenson, and Henry. Henderson is in borderline must-start territory based on his RB21 ranking on FantasyPros, though managers who drafted earlier in the season may not be in a position where they need to start him in one of their running back spots so he could fill a flex. Stevenson is still projected to receive most of the early-down work.
Diggs, who is on track to play week one, is projected to face the 56th-ranked cornerback Eric Stokes and could be leaned on by Maye as a reliable veteran target earner. Henry is just outside of the TE1 rankings at TE14, so most managers likely have a better option, but Henry offers a floor play.
Since Meyers had reportedly requested a trade, we haven’t heard much about him. I think he is an underrated receiver and should be Geno Smith’s second option behind Bowers. Meyers is a strong WR3/flex play.
The Patriots are the 13th-ranked DST entering week one. FantasyPros has this as a five-star matchup against a newly constructed Raiders offense and an offensive line that is ranked in the middle of the pack. Certainly a possibility for some turnovers, as well as the Raiders having the sixth-lowest implied point total at 20.50.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Geno Smith, Raiders DST
Not much else to talk about here, very few other options were likely drafted, or at least drafted to be more than long-term upside stashes.
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints
Sunday, September 7th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread ARI -6.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Kyler Murray, Trey McBride, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals DST
Murray is ranked as QB8 for the week, so likely a starter for most teams. McBride, Conner, and Kamara are all must-starts this week. Harrison Jr. comes in ranked WR18 this week and was drafted as such, so you are putting him in your lineup week one.
The Saints have the third-lowest implied point total of the week at 18.50, so the Cardinals are a strong DST play this week.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed
With an 18.50 implied point total for the Saints, I would not expect much production, though with the spread being 6.5 points, they will likely be playing from behind. Olave has a tougher matchup than Shaheed, projected to face the 35th-ranked cornerback Will Johnson, though both receivers could benefit from some garbage time production.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Trey Benson, Saints DST
With lots of talk about Benson getting more reps this season, I am still in wait-and-see mode with him. FantasyPros is more bullish than I would have expected, ranking him as RB43 on the week. You should have better options in week one than Benson.
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
Sunday, September 7th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread WSH -6.5
Over/Under 45.5
Must Starts: Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin, Matt Gay
With a moderate over/under of 45.5, the production in this game should be super concentrated among just a few key players. McLaurin finally signed his deal, locking him in as Daniels’s number one target entering week one.
I have a feeling the Nabers train will be a wild ride this year. Dealing with his perennial toe injury and a back injury that has kept him limited all preseason, I can guarantee we will have a lot of uncertainty week to week with him. That said, he probably won’t be any healthier than he is heading into week one, and when active, he is a must-start.
With the Commanders having an implied point total of 26 and spread of -6.5, Gay offers a strong kicker option with opportunities for field goals while playing with the lead.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Tyron Tracy Jr., Austin Ekeler, Deebo Samuel Sr, Commanders DST
Both Tracy and Ekeler are ranked as RB3 options heading into week one, and both have rookie teammates nipping at their heels. I believe both will be given some veteran deference, making them interesting flex options.
Samuel Sr. will look to establish himself as the clear-cut number two option on this team. What we should keep an eye on is how the Giants deploy coverage, as they called zone coverage on over 68% of their plays last year, and Samuel is a much better receiver versus zone.
However, the Giants acquired veteran cornerback Paulson Adebo, who is projected to line up across from Samuel Jr. Adebo is more of a press-man coverage cornerback, but isn’t highly ranked coming in as the 72nd-ranked cornerback according to Player Profiler. Samuel Jr. should be able to find his spots against this defense, whether he faces man coverage against Adebo or finds the open areas against zone.
The Commanders' defense was overhauled this offseason, but still returns strong production at multiple positions. With the Giants having the fourth-lowest implied point total at 19.50, the Commanders DST is a strong play in week one, approaching must-start territory.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt, Cam Skattebo, Zach Ertz
The aforementioned rookie running backs are both riding my bench this week until I see their roles better defined. Croskey-Merritt and Skattebo come in ranked RB41 and RB46, respectively. If you are forced to start either of them in week one, you may have some bigger roster issues, but don’t drop them if they underperform this week.
Ertz had a solid season last year, but he comes in ranked TE17 on the week, so you probably have better options.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets
Sunday, September 7th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread PIT -2.5
Over/Under 38.5
Must Starts: Steelers DST
This one is ugly, with the lowest over/under on the week at 38.5. The Jets have the second-lowest implied point total at 18, making the Steelers an elite DST option this week.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: D.K. Metcalf, Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Warren, Breece Hall, Jets DST
If you read my article from late August, it should not shock you that Wilson didn’t make it on the must-start list. FantasyPros has him as the WR18 on the week, meaning he is probably finding your lineup, but I don’t see his situation or matchup against the 23rd-ranked cornerback in Joey Porter Jr. as an advantageous one.
Metcalf is ranked even lower this week at WR28, though with his positional ADP as WR20, again, most people are likely going to start him. I’d prefer to flex him than rely on him as my WR2 this week.
Warren is the epitome of a flex-worthy running back. His pass-catching could provide some floor, but I don’t see a lot of ceiling for him. Hall probably feels disrespected not being on the must-start list, as FantasyPros has him as RB19 for the week.
If you started your draft RB/RB, Hall is likely not a running back you need to rely on, but he could fill your flex. Until the situation in New York sorts itself out and we know Hall’s role and usage, I am going to be cautious with him in my lineups.
The extremely low over/under suggests that the Jets DST could be a good play as well, even being 2.5-point underdogs. Rodgers could take some sacks and maybe toss an interception.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Both Quarterbacks, Any Other Skill Positions, Both Kickers
Simply avoid any other players from this game if you can. I am waiting to see how Kaleb Johnson, Braelon Allen, either Steelers tight end, or Mason Taylor are deployed before they sniff my lineups.
Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 7th, 1:00 PM EST
Spread JAX -3.5
Over/Under 46.5
Must Starts: Chuba Hubbard, Brian Thomas Jr., Tetairoa McMillan
This game should be very entertaining with some exciting playmakers, positional pecking orders to figure out, and new offensive schemes to be unveiled. For me, Hubbard, Thomas Jr., and McMillan are the only must-starts, both based on where they were drafted and their week one rankings.
McMillan makes the must-start list as the WR21 on the week, though he was drafted as WR26. With Adam Thielen sent to Minnesota and Jalen Coker placed on IR, McMillan should get peppered with targets out of the gate, with Carolina likely having to play from behind as well.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, Travis Hunter, Cam Little
Lawrence is ranked as QB10 despite a positional ADP of QB20. He probably is one of two quarterbacks on your team, and I think Lawrence has a great matchup and could propel himself into every week must-start consideration with a couple of strong performances early in the season.
His ambiguous backfield of Etienne Jr. and Bigsby will be one of the key areas to watch this weekend to see how these backs are utilized. Both could be flexes if you need to, though Etienne Jr. finds himself on the upper end of the RB3 rankings at RB27 with Bigsby at RB35.
Hunter will be one of the bigger storylines in this game as we get to see how Jacksonville truly wants to use him when the bullets are flying. He has an advantageous matchup, projected to line up against Player Profiler’s 69th-ranked cornerback in Chau Smith-Wade, so we will see if he can take advantage of that matchup.
Mr. 70-Yarder himself should be a strong play at kicker. Jacksonville is a 3.5-point home favorite, and with Little’s ability to hit long field goals, he should get plenty of opportunities to put points on the board if Jacksonville stalls out on offense.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Bryce Young, Rico Dowdle, Bhayshul Tuten, Brenton Strange
I normally wouldn’t list a guy like Tuten, who is ranked as RB53 on the week, though I wanted to make sure we didn’t get too over our skis with the rookie hype. We need to see things play out before we consider him in our lineups. Likewise, Strange has received a lot of praise during the preseason, but let’s see how his target share shakes out first.
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 7th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread DEN -8.5
Over/Under 42.5
Must Starts: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, Tony Pollard, Broncos DST, Wil Lutz
I think that Nix, Engram, the Broncos DST, and Wil Lutz are likely no-brainer choices for this list based on their weekly rankings. However, Sutton and Pollard are further down the rankings list, but I think they should be played everywhere.
Sutton has a pretty good matchup against Player Profiler’s 55th-ranked cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, and he showed great chemistry with Nix last year. I expect a continuation of that performance in 2025.
With Tyjae Spears on IR to start the season, Pollard finds himself alone atop the depth chart as the RB1. He will likely see the majority of the work both in the run game as well as a target out of the backfield.
The Titans have the lowest implied point total this week at 17.50, and the Broncos have arguably the best defense in the league, so it’s wheels up for their DST.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Calvin Ridley, J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey
Ridley makes the flex plays list despite having the toughest projected cornerback matchup of the week against Patrick Surtain II. As the 36th-ranked wide receiver for the week, his target opportunity should keep him fantasy relevant and worthy of a flex spot on most teams.
The Dobbins/Harvey battle will be intriguing as we see if the rookie hype surrounding Harvey results in him being able to supplant Dobbins’s role as RB1 on the depth chart. There will be a lot of victory lapping on the socials either way, and I am here for it. Both could make strong flex plays, with either having a nice ceiling if they take control this week in a “hot-hand” approach.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Everyone Else
Cam Ward gets a harsh introduction to the league, having to face this vaunted Broncos defense. This makes him, and the remainder of his weapons, clear fades this week. None of the other Broncos’ weapons should be considered this week, as I expect a very consolidated workshare across the aforementioned players.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, September 7th, 4:05 PM EST
Spread SF -2.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Purdy is probably the most interesting one on this list, as he has a FantasyPros ranking of QB12 while being drafted as QB10. The higher draft capital suggests he is likely your best starting option, despite being the last of the QB1 tier.
McCaffrey and Kittle are no-brainers. Walker III and Smith-Njigba are both ranked as mid to high-end number two options at their respective positions and will likely get the bulk of the work for the Seahawks.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Ricky Pearsall, Cooper Kupp, Zach Charbonnet, 49ers DST
Just a few options on this list. Despite his later round draft capital, I am probably playing Pearsall in the flex in every league I have him rostered, and I feel pretty good about him being able to return WR2-type production.
The Seahawks are home underdogs, and though he has a moderately difficult matchup against Player Profiler’s 32nd-ranked cornerback Upton Stout, he has a knack for getting open and could deliver a strong first week by earning targets alongside Smith-Njigba. You could do worse in one of your flex spots.
Charbonnet has been getting a lot of praise during the preseason with Walker III battling back from some nagging injuries, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Seahawks give him a bit more use early on this season to help Walker III knock some rust off. That could give him flex-worthy usage in week one.
The 49ers DST is not expected to be very good, though this is projected as a good matchup, making them a top-12 play this week.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Jauan Jennings
Despite being ranked one spot behind Kupp in FantasyPros rankings at WR45, I don’t trust him. Regardless of whether his preseason injury was legitimate or contract-related, his lack of practice time and reps leading up to the season opener gives me concern about starting him even in the flex in week one.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Sunday, September 7th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread GB -2.5
Over/Under 47.5
Must Starts: Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, Jake Bates
Very self-explanatory list here, as most of these guys are proven studs at their position. Kraft enters the season with a bunch of hype, and his week one ranking of TE10 and positional ADP of TE11 make him a must-start for most fantasy managers.
I am putting Bates on here simply due to his positional ADP (K3) and his weekly ranking (K9), though I will say I do have some skepticism. Dan Campbell is known as an aggressive coach, often deciding to go for it on fourth downs rather than kick the ball. With the Lions being 2.5-point underdogs on the road, this could end poorly, likely explaining the six-spot discrepancy between his positional ADP and week one ranking.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: David Montgomery, Jameson Williams, Matthew Golden
Montgomery has been a very steady and reliable option over the past couple of seasons, and he is a borderline RB2 but is a better flex play. Williams is being ranked several spots (WR29) below his positional ADP (WR25), even though he has a favorable projected matchup against Player Profiler’s 65th-ranked cornerback, Nate Hobbs. He has game-breaking ability and is the perfect high-ceiling flex option who I believe will be ranked as a WR2 more often than not this season.
Golden has an even better projected matchup against the 82nd-ranked cornerback Terrior Arnold. Jayden Reed’s availability is uncertain heading into week one, and Romeo Doubs has proven reliable yet not spectacular. This opens up the opportunity for Golden to establish himself as the WR1 on this team in a favorable matchup.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Jayden Reed, Both DSTs
As of Wednesday morning, Reed has yet to practice. Even if he does play, I am sitting him week one. With both teams having an implied point total over 22.50, neither DST is playable this week.
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, September 7th, 4:25 PM EST
Spread LAR -3.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Nico Collins, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Ka’imi Fairbairn
Collins, Williams, Nacua, and Adams were all drafted as fantasy starters, and their week one rankings reflect that. With Matthew Stafford’s back injury a lingering concern, there is no better week to have both Nacua and Adams in your lineup than week one.
Fairbairn enters the week ranked as K7, so he is probably in all starting lineups in a nice indoor environment. The only concern is the Texans being 3.5-point underdogs, meaning they may have to play from behind with limited field goal opportunities. I still like his chances with Houston looking to bounce back on offense after a subpar 2024 season, outperforming expectations.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Nick Chubb, Christian Kirk, Rams DST
With Joe Mixon not playing for at least the next several weeks, Chubb gets an opportunity to show he still has some juice left. Ranked as RB38 for the week, he is a borderline RB3 candidate whose volume could produce a decent floor at flex.
Kirk is the forgotten man in Houston with rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel joining the team, but Kirk should be the number two target earner on this team early on. Higgins will need time to establish himself opposite Collins. Kirk will likely operate out of the slot and has a nice projected matchup against the 86th-ranked cornerback Quentin Lake.
As a 3.5-point home favorite, the Rams DST is projected to have a strong matchup, though this may be skewed towards Houston’s offensive performance last year. However, the Texans' offensive line is not good, and they could put some pressure on C.J. Stroud, forcing some sacks or errant throws.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: C.J. Stroud
Ranked as QB18 on the week (and drafted similarly), Stroud is an easy one to fade this week. He may eventually work his way into our good graces, but time will tell.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday, September 7th, 8:20 PM EST
Spread BUF -1.5
Over/Under 50.5
Must Starts: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, James Cook, Mark Andrews
The Sunday night game looks to be a great one, with several high-end must-start options. With the highest over/under of the week at 50.5 and the smallest spread of 1.5, we should see lots of points for both teams in a game that should come down to the fourth quarter.
There are a lot of Andrews haters out there, and I'm not one of them. Regardless, with Isaiah Likely not expected to play this week, Andrews is definitely a must-start.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Zay Flowers, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Bass, Tyler Loop
Flowers is ranked as WR27 for the week, matching his positional ADP in drafts. While I love Flowers, the lack of overall volume and Baltimore’s run-heavy approach make him more of a high-end flex play rather than a WR2 for me.
For the Bills, Shakir, Coleman, and Kincaid all have an opportunity in what projects to be a high-scoring game to earn flex-worthy consideration (or low-end TE1 potential with Kincaid). Bonus name not listed: watch out for Josh Palmer. Only ranked as WR60 for the week, I would not be surprised if he were Buffalo’s leading wide receiver, quickly moving him up the ranks in subsequent weeks.
Both kickers deserve a play here, with Bass being ranked as K12 and Loop just outside the top-12 as K14. The high over/under and tight spread suggest both kickers may have ample scoring opportunities.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Ray Davis, Both DSTs
No other skill player on either team is really being ranked as even a flex starter, though if you need a desperation touchdown, DeAndre Hopkins is a sneaky play in deeper formats. Davis had some steam during the Cook contract holdout, but has little upside outside of an injury to Cook.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Monday, September 8th, 8:15 PM EST
Spread MIN -1.5
Over/Under 43.5
Must Starts: Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Vikings DST
With such an intriguing matchup on Monday Night Football, we only have three must-start options. There’s really no need to explain Jefferson’s designation as a must-start. Hockenson should see a lot of targets with Jordan Addison serving his three-game suspension.
The Vikings' defense is very aggressive with a lot of blitz packages that should put Caleb Williams under duress all game.
Matchup Considerations/Flex Plays: Aaron Jones Sr., DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Jordan Mason, Colston Loveland
Explaining this list will help explain the lack of must-start options. It has been rumored that Jones Sr. will lose goal-line work to Mason, limiting his upside. Though I am unsure that this will happen, I am entering week one with caution and not putting either in my running back spots until I see their roles while still allowing the possibility both can provide flex-level production.
It may seem sacrilege to leave the week’s 22nd-ranked wide receiver off the must-start list, but the vibes around Moore have me unsure what to expect. Luther Burden III has been creating buzz as the team’s best slot option in the Ben Johnson offense, which, if true, could prove troublesome for Moore’s production. Moore also has a tough projected matchup against the 27th-ranked cornerback, Isaiah Rodgers.
Odunze, on the other hand, has been trending the opposite of Moore. He has been making great plays throughout camp and looks to have a good rapport with Williams. He could easily emerge as the WR1 on this team if that continues. Odunze is projected to match up against one of the worst cornerbacks in the league, according to Player Profiler, ranking Jeff Okudah at 96th.
Swift is ranked as the RB24 on the week, which, for some Zero-RB or Anchor-RB teams, puts him into one of their running back spots. Recognizing this decision is roster dependent, I still feel more comfortable putting him in flex territory rather than relying on him in one of my running back slots if I can avoid it, though I don’t fault anyone for doing so.
I am proud to see the rookie hype die down, where Loveland is ranked as TE19 on the week despite his TE12 positional ADP. That said, Loveland is my favorite rookie tight end, and I would love to see him make some plays in this game. If you waited on tight end in your draft and have Loveland as one of your options, I wouldn’t mind starting him this week for fun.
Fantasy Fades/Concerns: Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, Both Kickers, Bears DST
Both Williams and McCarthy need to prove it to me before they get anywhere near my lineup. Neither kicker was drafted as a fantasy starter, and neither is ranked that way this week. Chicago finds itself outside the top-12 ranked defenses this week, so best to look elsewhere.