The early part of your fantasy football drafts can be pivotal to your success. The first couple of rounds are typically filled with guys who have proven production combined with a level of perceived safety. As you progress through the next few rounds, there are a lot more question marks and situations that fantasy managers have to navigate.
I have already addressed a few players in a recent article that I am avoiding; some are earlier-round picks, and some are later. And based on the feedback, a couple of them are pretty hot takes that have really ruffled some feathers. Rather than rehash the arguments on any of those players, I want to focus on a different highly ranked player, found within the first five rounds, that I think should be avoided in fantasy drafts this year.
Player To Avoid
Sam LaPorta
(Tight End, Detroit Lions)
FantasyPros PPR Real-Time ADP: 50 (TE4)
LaPorta is an example of a player whose value, cost, and perception have fluctuated quite a bit during his short two-year career. As a rookie in 2023, his points per reception (PPR) average draft position (ADP) was 163 as TE18 off the board. He finished as the TE1 overall with 239.30 PPR points, returning huge value for those who took a chance on the late-round tight end (raises hand).
Fast forward to last year, fantasy managers had to draft LaPorta in the third round at an ADP of 33 as TE2. Unfortunately, he took a big step back in production, finishing the year as TE8 with only 174.60 PPR points. He missed one game mid-season due to a shoulder injury and played through an ankle sprain he sustained in week three.
As we look at the tight end landscape entering the 2025 season, three tight ends have separated themselves from the pack with Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle all taken within the first three rounds (based on FantasyPros' new Real-Time ADP). LaPorta is taken 18 picks after Kittle in the mid-fifth round. While LaPorta could bounce back this year and produce closer to his rookie-year numbers, there are a number of factors that have me avoiding him in fantasy drafts this year.
First, we can look at his raw point totals compared to his points per game (PPG) ranking each of the last two years. While he finished as TE1 in total points in 2023, he was TE3 in PPG, with Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson finishing ahead of him. Last year, he was TE9 in PPG, similar in ranking to his raw point total, but still falling one spot short of his overall ranking. Even though I think there is some regression possible for LaPorta for both his total points and PPG production, I think it ends up somewhere in between his first two years.
Next, let’s take a look at his situation and team environment. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the clear-cut top target earner, having earned 146, 164, and 141 targets over the past three seasons. Despite only playing 15 games, logging 11 starts, Jameson Williams was the second leading target earner with 91 last year. The buzz surrounding Williams this offseason and the expectations that he takes a huge step forward should result in him earning well over 100 targets this season.
LaPorta likely comes in third in targets again this year, which isn’t horrible on a team that will probably throw the ball 560+ times, though it would be more advantageous for his fantasy managers if he could return closer to the 120 targets he earned his rookie year. I don’t foresee that happening with Williams stepping up and Jahmyr Gibbs continuing to establish himself as a dangerous pass-catcher out of the backfield.
There is also the unknown of how Ben Johnson’s departure as offensive coordinator will impact the offense in general. There is a strong likelihood that nothing really changes, as head coach Dan Campbell is the primary influence on this team’s identity on both offense and defense. As a former tight end, Campbell may persuade new offensive coordinator John Morton to just keep things status quo, making LaPorta’s involvement relatively stable.
The last time we saw Morton call plays as an offensive coordinator was in 2017 with the New York Jets. His receiving corps was led by Robbie Chosen, Jermaine Kearse, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. With that example being so far removed from where we are today, and with his offensive weapons being objectively better than what he had to work with in New York, it’s hard to forecast anything based on this.
Though it should be noted that much of the steam surrounding Williams has come from Morton himself. That includes reports that Morton is focusing on taking more deep shots in the passing game, trying to make the offense more explosive. While LaPorta has ranked 14th and 13th in average depth of target (ADOT) among tight ends the last two years according to PlayerProfiler, his seven-yard ADOT doesn’t quite stack up to Williams' ADOT of 11.4 yards, which should only increase according to these reports.
Thus far in the conversation, there isn’t much that truly suggests LaPorta is a bad pick. He is on a good offense, should see somewhere between 90-100 targets, has some contingent upside with an injury to others on the team, and has put up TE1 numbers in the past.
This is where we start looking at opportunity cost and value over replacement (VOR). I have discussed the concept of opportunity cost in previous articles, as well as an entire article dedicated to VOR. I will touch quickly on each before we apply these to LaPorta’s situation.
Opportunity cost is a multifaceted concept. The primary argument asks what other players or positions you are passing on by taking Player X here? Another related element, highly influenced by a team build approach focused on high-upside players, is what high-ceiling plays am I missing out on in this range of the draft, even if we assume Player X simply returns value at his positional ADP?
Related to opportunity cost and a great segue into the VOR discussion is whether a player is being drafted at a positional ADP that is higher than their projected positional finish? If they are being projected as TE4 and are being taken at TE4, there is very little upward movement available for that player.
With all of this, including our VOR discussion, we have to start with a set of projections that we believe are accurate. No one is perfect, though over the years, guys like Mike Clay have proven to be about as accurate as anybody, and many trust him as the “gold standard” for projections. I have been using his projections for all of my data this season.
Once you have projections, you can calculate VOR. VOR calculates the difference in projected points from Player X to the “replacement level” player at that same position. For a deeper dive into how this is calculated, I encourage you to go back and read my VOR article I referenced earlier.
So let’s talk about the opportunity cost and VOR implications for LaPorta taken in round five as TE4. Opportunity cost-wise, there are some players that I really like their possible ceiling outcomes compared to their positional ADP. Isiah Pacheco is taken as RB22 and could end up as a high-end RB2 this year. Tetairoa McMillan (WR24), George Pickens (WR26), and Jameson Williams (WR28) all have the upside to finish as high-end WR2s based on volume and environment.
Even T.J. Hockenson, taken 12 picks later at 62 overall, has just as good a chance at finishing at or above TE4 as LaPorta does. So bottom line for me is that the opportunity cost of taking LaPorta here compared to other players/positions that I think can greatly exceed their positional ADP is not a tradeoff I want for my team.
In terms of VOR, this might be the strongest data-driven argument. When we look at VOR, we are looking at how many points of advantage we gain by taking a player now compared to the replacement-level player at their position. This numerical result can be looked at in a simple top-down list or put into a visual.
Looking at the VOR for tight ends this year visually, it is clear that the drop-off after the first three tight ends is dramatic.
The visual you see above illustrates that the drop from the projected TE1 and TE2 to TE3 is relatively steep, representing a nearly 30-point drop in projected points between TE2 (McBride) and TE3 (Kittle). However, the drop from TE3 to TE4 in LaPorta is over 39 points. It represents the single largest VOR drop for any player/position group.
That means, if you miss on the top three tight ends, the precipitous drop to LaPorta at TE4 greatly reduces your advantage by drafting a tight end in the early rounds, with LaPorta representing the first player in the next tier. Some argue that when using tiers to draft, it’s best to draft near the bottom of a tier rather than the top.
The VOR drop from LaPorta to the next several tight ends is relatively flat at nine, two, six, .2, .8, and four points by the time you get to TE10 Tyler Warren. The drop from TE4 to TE10 is only 22 points (1.29ppg), and Warren is taken nearly three rounds later. The idea is that by waiting until TE10 (or later), you can make up the 1.29ppg between other players you will have drafted in those rounds.
Meanwhile, the drop in projected points from some of the aforementioned players to the next available at their position is 10 or more points. And this doesn’t even factor in the upside element we discussed previously, where the upward movement of the players drafted in the same range as LaPorta offers a larger opportunity to return greater value at arguably more important positions.
Final Thoughts
LaPorta is a very good tight end. He is likely one of the top four or five tight ends in the league. Though he is on a team with a lower-than-average team passing rate, they will still likely throw the ball 560 or more times, allowing him to earn about 100 targets.
Unfortunately, he has other target earners on his team who will probably just get the ball more often. St. Brown operates in the same area of the field as LaPorta and is an elite target earner. In games that Williams had at least an 85% snap share, he received nearly seven targets per game. His growing role in the offense, along with the added focus on more deep shots, may take some focus away from LaPorta.
Lastly, players you can draft around LaPorta’s ADP, including Williams, offer a higher upside play. It is an increased opportunity cost to draft a player like LaPorta at a position that typically requires fantasy managers to start only one. LaPorta also represents the start of a tier after a massive drop-off in projected points from the TE3. Drafting at the top of a tier isn’t ideal.
My advice is if you don’t find yourself drafting one of Bowers, McBride, or Kittle this year, just wait. LaPorta does not offer an advantage at his position relative to what you can draft in the same range with other players. He may feel safe, and he likely is, but upside wins championships.