We’re in the middle of peak draft season now, and as redraft content deluges the fantasy football community, we’re also coming up against our final chances to get into dynasty startup drafts.
With training camp hype moving dynasty values around, perhaps overly so, and fatigue setting in for other players, some juicy values are appearing for sharp drafters to snap up.
Today, I’ll be diving into ADPs from FantasyCalc and identifying the best and worst values in each round. League formats are full PPR, Superflex leagues. The tool actually doesn’t filter by TE Premium so I’m going to avoid talking about tight ends as much as possible. This week we'll discuss the first five rounds, and then get deeper into startup drafts next week.
Round 1
Best Value - Jalen Hurts - 1.08
Jalen Hurts should go 1-2-3-4 with the other elite rushing quarterbacks. There is no better asset in a dynasty league than a quarterback with elite rushing ability. Going any other direction with your first pick just means that you’ll spend the rest of the league’s existence pining for one of those guys. It’s truly a situation of haves and have-nots.
Every year, dynasty owners play whack-a-mole overdrafting whichever pocket passer most recently ran the hottest on passing touchdown variance. While any given pocket passer can occasionally overperform into Hurts’ range, they can’t sustain it each and every season like rushing quarterbacks can.
Consider that just a year ago, C.J. Stroud was going top three in startup drafts. Pocket passers are simply much more susceptible to the vicissitudes of touchdown variance than elite rushers.
Hurts is available at such a discount because dynasty drafters are over-indexing on the Eagles’ truly insane run of positive game scripts last year. As I wrote in a recent article, the Eagles had an astonishing 37% pass rate in the second halves of their games last year, which tanked essentially the entire fantasy passing offense for fantasy.
In a league where close games are the norm, and in which it’s much harder to sustain defensive dominance than offensive excellence, the Eagles will actually have to throw the ball in the fourth quarter in 2025. Expect Hurts to return better passing numbers compared to last year while still dominating in rushing touchdowns.
It’s also possible some owners are worried about the tush push being banned, but I don’t think we have an edge predicting whether that will or won’t come to pass. As Mark Twain once said, “I’ve had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened.” Even if the tush push does get banned, Hurts will remain a top-four rusher at the quarterback position.
The very fact that we can be slotted into eighth or ninth in our draft orders and still land an elite rushing quarterback is a rare and unique opportunity. Sharp owners won't look this gift horse in the mouth.
Worst Value - Joe Burrow - 1.05
Listen, I had to pick *somebody* to be the worst value for the sake of this exercise. Alas, nobody is drafting bad players in the first rounds of dynasty drafts. This year is particularly hard to find a bad pick anywhere in the first round, compared to years where C.J. Stroud or Trey Lance were going in the first round.
Joe Burrow is a truly elite real-life quarterback, but in keeping with TD% whack-a-mole, he’s being drafted almost a full round ahead of any other pocket passer. While it’s hard to imagine the Bengals will be throwing the ball any less often this year, pocket passers are just much less stable in fantasy than in real life.
Just a year ago, Joe Burrow was the QB22 in points per game (six points per passing touchdown). When we’re in the middle of a nuclear run like the heater Joe Burrow has been on, it’s hard to imagine any other kind of circumstance. But the truth is, it’s very hard to be an elite fantasy scorer as a pocket passer year after year.
That being said, I do believe 2025 will resemble Burrow’s 2024 season much, much more closely than some of the cursed seasons from years past.
While it’s totally justifiable to draft Burrow in the first round on the basis of his being an elite real-life quarterback, if I’m forced to pick a worst value for the sake of this exercise, I’d say I would rather take Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability or an elite wide receiver before Burrow. Those guys separate themselves from their peers more than Burrow does from all the other pocket passers in an average year.
I’m really splitting hairs here, and anybody who took Burrow at 1.05 will be just fine. He does fully deserve to be the first pocket passer off the board, and it's absolutely within his range of outcomes to lead the league in passing yards and passing TDs.
Round 2
Best Value - Ladd McConkey - 2.12
The second round of startup drafts remains loaded, but Ladd McConkey is my pick for the best value. No matter how you slice it, from a talent perspective McConkey is in the same tier as the wide receivers going ahead of him. He was 4th in the NFL in yards per route run, 8th in first downs per route run, and looks truly outstanding on tape.
Out of the mini-tier that includes McConkey, Drake London, and Nico Collins, whoever goes last in the tier gets to be my best value. To make this more actionable, I would take McConkey before Bo Nix, De’Von Achane, Saquon Barkley, and Patrick Mahomes.
At the end of the day, he’s a top-10 real-life NFL receiver tied to Justin Herbert until the heat death of the universe. He’ll be going around the 1-2 turn of startup drafts as early as next summer.
Worst Value - Bo Nix - 2.11
Bo Nix had a great rookie season, but I just don’t think he separates himself from the quarterbacks who go a round later. I would much rather take any of the aforementioned wide receivers (and Trey McBride in TE premium leagues) around this slot, and then get a quarterback later who is at worst a coin flip to outscore him.
On the one hand, Nix is tied to Sean Payton and did an admirable job operating his offense last year. On the other, he started the season very slowly until Payton pared down the playbook for him, and then went on a hot streak against the worst passing defenses on his schedule.
At least so far, his success is less because he’s playing as a full-service quarterback and more because the training wheels haven’t come all the way off yet. While he’ll still be in a Sean Payton offense going forward, I’m a little leery of taking that kind of talent over players at other positions who are bona fide elite.
I’m much more comfortable waiting and taking Justin Herbert, Drake Maye, and Brock Purdy. I will say, Nix scores a good chunk of fantasy points as a rusher, which helps his case. I’m just not totally bought in on the talent being worth a top-24 pick in startup drafts.
Round 3
Best Value - Drake Maye - 3.05
This is easily the riskiest pick I’ve made so far, but Drake Maye presents a chance to gain two rounds of value, as he could legitimately catapult himself into the first round of startup drafts in a year’s time.
I mentioned that quarterbacks with elite rushing ability are an unparalleled asset in dynasty. Well, Drake Maye had more scramble yards per game in his nine full games than Jayden Daniels, and now stands to get more designed rushing work.
The Patriots didn’t call designed rushes for Maye because it wasn’t worth the risk in the midst of a lost season. Now, with some offensive line upgrades and new pass catchers, Maye has an improved, albeit possibly still insufficient, supporting cast to work with.
Simply put, what Maye did last year with truly embarrassing talent around him was nothing short of remarkable, and I’m fully bought in on his talent. He managed to move the ball and hit big time throws with this desiccated husk of a roster, making plays without playmakers and handling pressure with poise.
Honorable Mention - A.J. Brown - 3.09
If you don’t want to go the risky route with Maye, you can just scoop up A.J. Brown all the way at 3.09. Brown’s fantasy value suffered even more than Hurts’ due to the Eagles’ game scripts. However, in 2025 he was as efficient as he’s ever been, absolutely dominating in yards per route run and first downs per route run.
The below chart is courtesy of Ryan Heath from his article on first downs per route run. You'll find A.J. Brown in the extreme top right leading his peers in both metrics.
No, the Eagles won’t ever be pass heavy, but Brown is the same guy who put up over 1,400 yards in back-to-back seasons before last year's letdown. This is a dip every dynasty owner should be buying.
Worst Value - Jonathan Taylor - 3.11
Coming off a league-winning run in the fantasy playoffs, Jonathan Taylor could make this pick look silly. However, he’s another one of those players for whom it’s really easy to forget all the bad while we’re in the middle of a heater.
At the end of the day, Taylor is game script dependent, already deep into his second contract, and most importantly on a bad team. As a veteran running back, he needs to finish this season as an RB1 just to maintain value, something he hasn’t done reliably in a while.
Yes, he went on his epic run last year with dust at quarterback, but we don't want to make a habit of investing in running backs whose offenses are fully in quarterback wilderness. You'll lose that bet more often than you win it.
Taylor is a very good player with plenty of upside in spurts, but with my third pick in a startup draft I strongly prefer to take a younger wide receiver or even running back. Or, if you are inclined to go veteran running back, I’d shoot the moon with Christian McCaffrey. It’s not like Taylor is the picture of health either.
Round 4
Best Value - Treveyon Henderson - 4.06
The first rookie to appear in this article, TreVeyon Henderson has the tools and ability of a PPR monster.
First off, he is the best pass blocking running back I’ve ever scouted out of college. He will be 100% locked into all two minute drills and obvious passing situations. Secondly, he’s an outstanding pass catcher and route runner too.
Henderson’s pass catching ability goes far beyond simply securing screens and checkdowns. Instead, he’s a legitimate downfield route runner who can rack up explosive receptions and long touchdowns. Most running backs need to compile inefficient targets for their PPR value, but Henderson projects to match or exceed their receptions totals on startling efficiency.
Finally, while Henderson isn’t an overly physical and durable runner between the tackles runner, he is an explosive and elusive back who will absolutely reward his coach for giving him double digit rushes per game, particularly to the outside.
Overall, Henderson has a high floor as a running back who regularly gets 60+ receptions per season, with realistic upside to be a game-breaking asset. It’s absolutely within the upper end of his range of outcomes to be a first or high second round dynasty pick in a year or two.
Worst Value - Kyler Murray - 4.12
While Murray’s rushing ability is enticing, I am bearish on how “real-life good” he is compared to the other players in this round. He’s being drafted as the QB14 coming off a QB13 finish, so the value isn’t bad. But, that means you’re paying a breakeven price for his fantasy production while buying into what I believe to be a sinking ship.
I just don’t think Murray’s days as the Cardinals’ unquestioned franchise player will last much longer. He doesn't see the field well, and struggles to operate a passing offense beyond the opening script. Additionally, there are serious concerns related to his in-week preparation and work ethic.
Drafting Murray in the back of the fourth probably won’t come back to bite you in the short term, but I think he’s like a building with a rotting foundation. He’s losing goodwill fast, and eventually there will be a reckoning between his talent and the mediocre results he’s coaxed out of that talent.
Round 5
Best Value - Brock Purdy - 5.03
Brock Purdy is my favorite value in this entire article. He’s legitimately good at operating the Kyle Shanahan offense, only 25 years old, and has finished as QB6 and QB11 in points per game the last two years. You can draft this fine young gentleman as QB15, at least a full round behind several pocket passers who aren’t even good bets to outscore him this year.
While Purdy may not have fully shaken off the stigma of being a more of a game manager, his game really opened up last season. Despite the 49ers having a rough year with injuries to key players such as Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey, Purdy played the best football of his career out of structure.
He navigated pressure, made big time throws, and even started scoring points with scrambles. Recently extended to a long term contract and tied to an elite playcaller, Purdy has about as much insulation as any quarterback in the league.
Honorable Mention - Rashee Rice - 5.01
Yes he’s going to be suspended to start the year, and no I don’t care. Rashee Rice is the Chiefs’ first option in the passing game, one of the best zone beaters in the entire NFL, and tied to perhaps the best quarterback at picking zones apart.
Additionally, Rice is a special run after catch threat, which means he can squeeze extra efficiency out of a high percentage route tree, nicely balancing a target and reception floor with explosive juice.
There is a bit of a narrative out there that dynasty owners are overreacting to three good games. On the contrary, Rice was also outstanding in the back half of his rookie year and into the NFL playoffs. Before his injury, he was a steadily ascending player on his way to being a WR1 in PPR settings.
Some fantasy football content creators have either directly or indirectly implied that Xavier Worthy stepped into Rice’s role after Rice’s unfortunate friendly fire injury, and that they might be competing to be the Chiefs' "slant boy". The truth is that Xavier Worthy struggled over the middle of the field his entire rookie season, as he’s just too small to consistently win inside leverage and break tackles like Rice does.
Worthy’s short field production mostly came on designed targets in the flat, not by winning against zone coverage like Rice does. I would gladly reach a full round on Rice to make sure I land him.
Worst Value - Xavier Worthy - 5.11
This is purely a personal scouting take. It’s a little scary to label Worthy a bad value after a good second half of the season and some big games in the postseason, especially because he’s tied to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid with great draft capital. Unfortunately, I just think Worthy is too limited in the very areas he’s supposed to stand out.
Worthy needed designed usage cooked up by Andy Reid, in particular with throws into the flat and jet tosses, to return fantasy value last year. Unfortunately, I think Worthy is not actually good enough to justifiably receive a high enough volume designed targets when all the other pass catchers are healthy. Reid really wants his latest weapon to work out, but long term it's not in his best interest to spam Worthy with throws into the flat.
As a short target player, I don’t like his movement ability after the catch, weird as that sounds for somebody with his speed. He really needs to get into a long, linear stride to move at full speed, but that means he needs a clean runway to maximize his yards after catch. Worthy also struggles to make adjustments as a ball-carrier in short areas. Combine that with his lacking size, and he’s surprisingly easy to tackle.
Deep down the field, Worthy just leaves too much to be desired at the catch point. He is missing a bit of the body control, frame, and “my ball” mentality to make plays tough plays to help out his quaterback. To be honest, I’m also a little worried for Worthy’s sake about Mahomes’ transformation from a gunslinger into a responsible operator who takes what the defense gives him underneath. And dare I say it, I’m a little worried about Mahomes’ deep accuracy going forward.
If you are a Worthy owner, fear not, as he could absolutely make me look stupid. He’s a (very) young player with otherworldly tools who could develop into a high value player. The launching pad is certainly all there, but I just wasn’t convinced by his tape.
Conclusion
That wraps up Part I of my dynasty startup draft series. Stay tuned as next week we get into the later rounds, where you can really scoop up great value and distinguish yourself from your leaguemates.
At the end of the day, there just aren’t outright bad players in the first five rounds. However, you can give yourself an edge by combining the big picture roster-building takeaways in this article with some of the player-specific evaluations.
At the end of the day though, this is a game and we’re here for a good time, not a long time. You should draft whichever players you want to own. And also Brock Purdy.