As fantasy managers continue to look for new ways to gain an edge over their league mates, the sharp ones will try to find market inefficiencies they can exploit on draft day. Traditionally, that involved using one or more sources of player projections from a trusted source, and comparing that to how you felt about a player and where they were taken in drafts.
As this type of research and analysis has become more mainstream for a large portion of the fantasy community, some fantasy managers have turned their attention to other sources of projections. One such source is the Vegas betting market, specifically the use of player props and Vegas odds.
We know that Vegas is rarely wrong; they put a lot of time, effort, and money into curating their projections and player props. However, we also know that they can’t always be right, especially in something like fantasy football, which is heavily driven by chance and factors outside anyone’s control.
That allows us to compare how Vegas is projecting players versus how the fantasy draft market is valuing them. As there are a lot (and I mean A LOT) of player prop sources out there, and not all of them are complete with full player props for all statistics we care about for each position, I found the DraftKings Sportsbook to cover the widest range of players across the most fantasy-relevant stats.
While not all Vegas sports books will perfectly align with DraftKings, they are often very close based on the player props and the over/under odds provided. These numbers shift all the time, anyway, so what you are seeing here is valid as I am writing this article (Monday, August 11th).
With that said, each position has its limitations in terms of props available for each player. Sports books like DraftKings tend to prioritize the higher-level producers in categories that are not as position-specific. For example, there are player props for rushing yards for quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts, but not for Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Aaron Rodgers.
The same holds for other areas (receiving yards for running backs, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns for wide receivers). Wide receiver tends to be the position with the broadest number of statistics covered for the largest number of players, though oddly enough, I was unable to find a reliable source from any sports book providing player props for receptions.
Therefore, I brought over missing projections for each position and statistic from Mike Clay’s projections, which I have been referencing all off-season, and the source that all of these DraftKings projections are compared against.
Adding in these missing statistics to round out the projections, utilizing the primary prop bet numbers for players at their respective positions, will make sure all players are evaluated using all relevant elements of their projected fantasy points. I will point these out when hitting on the players discussed below, referencing “hybrid projections”.
With the lack of complete statistics for quarterback and running back, and with fewer available prop bets for tight ends, we will hit on fewer of those players than we will for wide receiver.
Lastly, we are using average draft position (ADP) from FantasyPros full points per reception (PPR) leagues. The format for presenting player values will look like this:
Player Name (Spots of Value: Vegas Odds – ADP)
Odds Rank
Projections Rank
ADP Positional Rank
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (8)
Odds: QB12
Proj: QB15
ADP: QB20
Lawrence presents a possible value, with Vegas setting his passing yards at 3700.5 and passing touchdowns at 22.5. Without props available for his rushing production, we add in Clay’s projected 283 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns.
His hybrid DraftKings projection put him at QB12, Clay’s projections have him at QB15, yet the market values him as QB20. Having added Travis Hunter as a receiving weapon and head coach Liam Coen’s new offensive scheme, Lawrence could be a value if you want to wait on quarterback.
Geno Smith (6)
Odds: QB21
Proj: QB21
ADP: QB27
Smith presents a slightly lesser value than Lawrence, and at QB21, probably shouldn’t be your primary target in single quarterback leagues. However, in a superflex league or taking a shot on a backup quarterback, Smith presents some value based on where DraftKings projects him.
Like Lawrence, Smith only has DraftKings props for passing yards (3575.5) and passing touchdowns (20.5), though adding in Clay’s rushing projections of 287 yards and two touchdowns, his hybrid odds projections matches Clay's positional projection of QB21. His positional ADP of QB27 is a shot worth taking on.
Running Back
Tyler Allgeier (20)
Odds: RB31
Proj: RB48
ADP: RB51
This one should be taken with a grain of salt, as Allgeier was one of only 31 running backs that DraftKings chose to provide a rushing yards prop for. So his rank of RB31 does reflect he is the lowest one on the odds list, though noteworthy that he was chosen ahead of some other names. DraftKings only provided a rushing yards prop for Allgeier of 550.5.
Since Atlanta drafted Bijan Robinson, Allgeier has taken a backseat while still having some strong performances of his own. With Robinson being the unquestioned number one option in that backfield, Allgeier is nothing more than a handcuff with some strong contingent upside.
Being taken as RB51, I don’t believe that Allgeier truly has a chance to finish as an RB3 as the odds suggest here, but, interestingly, DraftKings chose him over many other players they could have provided props for. If Bijan goes down, Allgeier could return significant value based on where he is drafted.
Bucky Irving (3)
Odds: RB7
Proj: RB9
ADP: RB10
Though not a huge value at only three spots, I chose Irving because DraftKings provided a rushing yards prop (1000.5) and a rushing touchdowns prop (7.5). He was one of only 10 running backs to have both. To this I added Clay’s projections of 53 receptions for 410 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns.
This hybrid projection puts him at RB7, and he is being taken as RB10. I am an admitted Irving fan as Oregon is my alma mater, though I began draft season bearish on his ADP. I have started to come around recently, and with Rachaad White’s preseason groin injury, I will continue to consider Irving in the second round of my drafts.
De’Von Achane (3)
Odds: RB4
Proj: RB5
ADP: RB7
Like Irving with a modest value of three spots, I chose Achane because he is one of only eight running backs DraftKings chose to provide both a rushing yards prop (900.5) and a receiving yards prop (450.5). Add in Clay’s projections of nine rushing touchdowns, 74 receptions, and four receiving touchdowns, and it brings his hybrid odds projection to RB4.
Achane’s physical profile scares me, but when he is on the field, his production is undeniable. RB4 is a hard projection for me to get behind, but I don’t mind his current positional ADP as RB7, which still provides some upward mobility to return value if all goes well.
Wide Receiver
With 49 wide receivers receiving yardage props at DraftKings, I will choose a mix of players taken early to later rounds in drafts.
Adam Thielen (19)
Odds: WR44
Proj: WR43
ADP: WR63
Thielen is one of the last wide receivers that DraftKings provided a receiving yards prop on (550.5), though we had to add in Clay’s projected receptions (73) and receiving touchdowns (four) to arrive at the hybrid odds projection of WR44.
Thielen had several strong outings once he returned from injury in week 12 last year. Bryce Young may lean on the veteran wide receiver once again this season as rookie Tetairoa McMillan gets acclimated and second-year receivers Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker continue to establish themselves.
Calvin Ridley (9)
Odds: WR22
Proj: WR24
ADP: WR31
Going off the board towards the end of round six, DraftKings provided Ridley a receiving yards prop of 925.5. Combine that with Clay’s projections of 70 receptions and seven receiving touchdowns, and that brings his hybrid odds projection to WR22 with a positional ADP of WR31.
A nine-spot positional value is nothing to sneeze at. He’s the perfect type of player to take if you choose to draft a riskier option like Rashee Rice in rounds four or five, and you want someone to fill that WR2 spot for you until Rice returns from his yet-to-be-announced suspension. Any time you can get WR2 production from a player drafted as a WR3 or later, it is beneficial.
Jaylen Waddle (9)
Odds: WR23
Proj: WR25
ADP: WR32
Drafted in a similar spot as Ridley, you may choose to go for the younger Waddle. DraftKings has him with an identical receiving yards prop as Ridley, with 925.5, and also a 4.5 receiving touchdowns prop. Add in Clay’s 87 receptions projection, and it brings his hybrid projection within one point of Ridley’s.
With Tyreek Hill already nursing an oblique injury, this could mean Waddle is the WR1 for Miami right out of the gate if Hill isn’t ready to roll. Waddle provides another great WR3 option for your team that may return WR2 value when all is said and done.
D.J. Moore (5)
Odds: WR15
Proj: WR20
ADP: WR20
Slightly less value than presented by the previous two players discussed, Moore is taken slightly earlier in drafts towards the end of round four. DraftKings has set the prop for Moore’s receiving yards at 975.5 and his receiving touchdowns at 6.5. Add in Clay’s projected receptions of 88, and that brings his hybrid odds projection to WR15 with a positional ADP of WR20.
The earlier you get in drafts, the harder it is to find positional opportunities this large. With a five-spot gap between his “hybrid” DraftKings odds and where he is taken in drafts, it suggests fantasy managers might be drafting him at his floor. The preseason narrative has not been great out of Chicago, but there is still time for things to get on track before week one, and Moore’s talent could be part of the solution.
Tight End
The market is pretty sharp on tight ends, but there is one that stood out for me.
Jake Ferguson (5)
Odds: TE12
Proj: TE12
ADP: TE17
DraftKings only provided receiving yardage props on 15 tight ends, and receiving touchdowns for only six of those. Unsurprisingly, the market is taking these tight ends right about where the props have them projected.
Ferguson only had a receiving yards prop of 550.5, which is tied for 13th among the tight ends that were given prop bets, though once you add in Clay’s projected receptions of 66 and receiving touchdowns of four, it brings him up to TE12, and the market is taking him at TE17.
If you miss the elite tier of tight ends and take a wait-on-tight-end approach, Ferguson is a worthy target. Dallas may have to throw the ball a lot this year, and many who cover the team suggest their running game may struggle. Ferguson will likely take a back seat to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, but in a high-volume pass offense, Ferguson can still get his opportunities with contingent upside with an injury to either Lamb or Pickens.