Back again like we never left, fresh off my recent article where I broke down the fantasy implications of the Terry McLaurin contract “hold-in”, we received more news today that McLaurin has requested a trade from the Washington Commanders.
Things seem to be progressing quickly, though it is unknown whether this move is additional posturing by the McLaurin camp in an accelerated game of contract chicken or whether he feels the two sides are so far apart that a trade is inevitable. If this is McLaurin’s actual desire, and a deal is made prior to the season, the ripple effect for fantasy could be significant.
Impact for the Commanders
Sticking with the Commanders, we have to assume they lean on veterans Deebo Samuel Sr., Noah Brown, and Zach Ertz to shoulder the load. I don’t expect much from Michael Gallup. From there, they will rely on second-year receiver Luke McCaffrey to take a step forward and the expedited development of rookie Jaylin Lane.
Austin Ekeler may also need to get more involved in the passing game, a skillset he certainly has and one the Commanders would be wise to utilize given his age and mileage rather than trying to run him between the tackles.
The primary question is, who will Jayden Daniels have that can stretch the field like McLaurin can? In the past, we have seen passing games struggle when they lose their field-stretcher (notably the Kansas City Chiefs since losing Tyreek Hill). While they can still be productive, they lose an element of efficiency.
Unless the Commanders can find this answer from the options currently in the building, they may look to acquire one via trade or free agency. The list of viable free-agent wide receivers who possess this skillset isn’t encouraging, though.
The sophomore slump is often discussed in relation to quarterbacks who exceeded expectations in their rookie year. If McLaurin gets traded, and they cannot replace his role on the team, that factor alone could absolutely contribute to Daniels seeing a dip in his passing production. I am less concerned that he can repeat his rushing production.
McLaurin Impact and Potential Landing Spots
As far as how this could impact McLaurin if he were to be traded, that is a lot more difficult to answer. It all depends on where he goes, how soon it happens, and how quickly he can get acclimated to his new team. Some potential trade partners that have been speculated include the Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, and the New England Patriots.
While it is hard to know exactly what each of these front offices are thinking, we can try to deduce something from their recent actions and personnel decisions.
The Chargers struck gold with Ladd McConkey last year and added several pass catchers via the draft this offseason in receivers Tre Harris, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and tight end Oronde Gadsden. It doesn’t appear as though they are giving up on Quentin Johnston just yet, so I don’t see the Chargers as a fit.
The Raiders are interesting, as Jakobi Meyers is their leading option at wide receiver, and while I think he is an underrated player, he is not your prototypical lead receiver. Brock Bowers will likely be the primary target-earner on the team, and given how he is typically deployed, I do not see an addition like McLaurin hurting Bowers’s production.
The 49ers are in the middle of their own contract standoff with Jauan Jennings, and they paid Brandon Aiyuk a hefty contract last year before he tore his ACL and MCL later in the season. The 49ers have taken a more calculated approach, dialing back their spending recently, so I don’t see this as a viable fit for McLaurin.
Last on this list is the Patriots, who have an interesting mix of younger and older players, both new to the team and returning from last year. Most notable is the addition of Stefon Diggs, who is returning from a knee injury but seems to be practicing without restriction. They also added speedy rookie wide receiver Kyle Williams out of Washington State.
Key pieces returning to the team are Demario “Pop” Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, and Hunter Henry. Projecting out the roles each of these players would fill on the team, I could see McLaurin playing the alpha field-stretching role they are missing. Diggs excels more in short and intermediate parts of the field, seeing an average depth of target (ADOT) of 8.7 yards last year. McLaurin had an ADOT of 13.3 yards, suggesting their skillsets may compliment each other.
Given these potential landing spots, I think the Raiders or the Patriots would be viable options for McLaurin. I am not concerned about him building a rapport with a new quarterback, as he has dealt with that nearly every season of his career and has still put up 1,000-yard seasons consistently.
My preferred destination would be the Patriots, as I think Drake Maye could unlock McLaurin’s potential. I would also prefer that he compete for targets with a 32-year-old Diggs versus a 22-year-old Bowers.
Regardless of his landing spot, I would project a slow takeoff, simply due to learning a new system, new teammates, and new staff. If he is traded, there probably isn’t a scenario where I wouldn’t move him down in my projections. As I said in my previous article, I think he is being drafted at his ceiling as a mid to low-end WR2, and with a trade, he would fall out of the top-24 fantasy football wide receiver conversation for me.